Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that the JOLTS job openings fell to 7.437 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.7 million, marking the lowest level since May 2021 [2] - Job openings have decreased by 23% compared to the peak in January, with the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals dropping from 2:1 to 1.7:1 [3] - The most significant reductions in job openings were observed in the technology sector (-18%) and retail sector (-12%), while healthcare remains in demand [3] Group 2 - With the slowdown in hiring, wage growth has remained below 5% for three consecutive months, and major companies like Amazon and Google have quietly eliminated signing bonuses [4] - Walmart has reduced its starting wage by $1.5 per hour, indicating a trend of "mild disinflation" that may lead the Federal Reserve to reassess its interest rate hike pace [4] - Following the data release, U.S. stock futures rose, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 4.2%, reflecting a market focus on rising expectations for interest rate cuts rather than recession risks [5]

图片来源视觉中国 动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美两国贸易谈判释放积极信号，但全球市场依然不能掉以轻心， 从本周三开始，全球市场将进入一个至关重要的72小时。 据新华社、央视新闻报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞 典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落 实情况。 根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 接下来，一系列密集的美国经济数据、科技巨头财报和关键的贸易政策节点将轮番登场，这些事件的叠加， 可能为年内剩余时间的市场走向定下基调。 市场考验将从周三拉开序幕，届时美国将公布第二季度GDP数据，数小时后美联储将公布利率决议。紧接着，微软、Meta、苹果和亚马逊等科技巨头将在周 三和周四盘后相继发布财报，而备受关注的美国7月非农就业报告则将在周五出炉。 这些事件中的任何一个都足以引发市场动荡。 在美股自4月低点大幅反弹、估值已然高企的背 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance with a continuous rise for six weeks, which is a rare occurrence in history, indicating a robust market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market has rebounded, with the index surpassing the previous peak from October 8 of last year, indicating a positive trend across large, mid, and small-cap stocks [2]. - The A-share medical and healthcare sectors are gaining strength, following a significant rise in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a dual boost from "earnings recovery" and "valuation enhancement" [2]. - The consumer sector is currently experiencing a downturn, reminiscent of the medical sector's performance two years ago, indicating a potential area of concern for investors [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The recent market uptrend has led to a decrease in the amount of capital allocated to investment portfolios, with weekly investment amounts dropping to less than half of what they were when the market was at 5.9 stars last year [5]. - The company offers a limited-time 50% discount on advisory fees for its investment portfolios, aiming to help investors reduce costs [6]. - The investment strategy includes a "periodic but variable" approach, where more capital is allocated when valuations are lower, allowing for a flexible investment strategy based on market conditions [13]. Group 3: Pension Fund Investment - The company has been actively investing in pension index funds, with a focus on combinations like the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, which represent growth and value strategies respectively [21]. - Recent performance shows that both the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend have returned to normal valuations, prompting a pause in further investments until more attractive opportunities arise [23]. - The company emphasizes that long-term investment opportunities will continue to exist, even if current options appear limited [25].

浙江拟加大对科创型企业扶持力度，夯实上市后备军。近日，浙江省科学技术厅就《浙江省关于科技金 融赋能创新浙江建设因地制宜发展新质生产力的若干举措（征求意见稿）》（下称《征求意见稿》）公 开征求意见。 按照目标，到2027年浙江新增科技领域上市企业占新增上市公司总数达80%以上。此外，浙江将建立完 善上市后备科技型企业培育库，力争每年动态保有上市后备企业超1000家。 发展壮大耐心资本和长期资本 《征求意见稿》显示，浙江将强化政府投资基金引导作用，扩大省级创投类基金规模，聚焦人工智能、 生命健康、新材料新能源三大科创高地，坚持投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技，强化企业、金融机构、 地方政府等共同参与，到2027年力争省级创投类基金规模突破200亿元。 政府投资基金对种子基金、人才基金、天使基金等创投类基金的出资比例可适当提高，基金存续期一般 不超过20年。建立概念验证中心、中试平台、科技型企业孵化器与政府投资基金布局联动机制，支持政 府投资基金与高能级平台、科技服务机构等合作设立概念验证基金、中试基金、孵化基金、科技成果转 化基金等。 同时，将扩大创业投资资金来源，持续推进金融资产投资公司（AIC）股权投资试点，推动 ...

Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]

Group 1 - The report from Jefferies indicates that the momentum driving the recent highs in the U.S. stock market, particularly among large-cap growth stocks, is expected to gain new energy [1] - Analysts Andrew Greenebaum and Chris Wood noted that while the overall market breadth is weak, the depth of the market is strong, suggesting potential for upward movement in stock prices [1] - Currently, 55% of stocks in the Russell 3000 index are above their 200-day moving average, which is below the long-term average, indicating a potential for an upward trend similar to previous strong years [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has risen by 28% since its low on April 8, with large tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia significantly contributing to this increase [1] - Only 3.8% of stocks in the Russell 3000 are at their 52-week highs, compared to 9.3% in the S&P 500, highlighting a disparity in stock performance [4] - Greenebaum emphasized that the performance of large-cap value stocks has shown significant improvement, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics despite the underperformance of value and small-cap stocks this year [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Sentiment**: The VIX index has dropped below 15, indicating increased risk appetite among investors, favoring aggressive investment strategies such as SPACs and cryptocurrencies, while the S&P 500 dividend stock index has underperformed [1][2] - **U.S. Real Estate Market**: The U.S. real estate market remains weak, with both existing and new home sales declining, and residential investment showing negative year-on-year growth [10][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Retail Investor Activity**: Retail investors are heavily involved in speculative trading, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, with participation rates exceeding 25%, indicating a significant increase in speculative behavior compared to 2021 [3][4] - **Financial Conditions**: Despite the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates, financial conditions have loosened to levels seen before the 2022 rate hikes, supported by strong economic performance and positive corporate earnings [6][8] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Fed to continue lowering rates, which could exacerbate asset price bubbles. The M2 money supply remains above pre-pandemic levels, necessitating a cautious approach to liquidity [7][8] - **Global Market Euphoria**: Global capital markets are exhibiting euphoric behavior, which could pose risks if there are significant shocks or data changes in the future [9] Additional Important Content - **Real Estate Market Weakness**: The primary reason for the weakness in the U.S. real estate market is high interest rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate only decreasing slightly compared to historical trends, leading to a lack of significant recovery in residential investment [11][12] - **Future Demand Recovery**: A recovery in real estate demand is contingent on the 30-year mortgage rate falling to 5.5%, which is currently at 6.7%. Achieving this within the next six months is deemed unlikely without multiple rate cuts from the Fed [12] - **Upcoming Economic Events**: Key economic events to watch include the Fed's July meeting, trade negotiations, and non-farm payroll data releases, all of which could significantly impact market dynamics [14][15] - **Inflation and Tariff Concerns**: The Fed is cautious about inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which have already begun to affect prices in various sectors. The Fed's policy decisions will remain independent of political pressures, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [16][17][18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the investment landscape, particularly highlighting the challenges posed by the shift from globalization to de-globalization and demographic changes affecting economic growth [1][3]. Core Insights - The transition from globalization to de-globalization presents significant challenges for investors accustomed to previous market conditions [1][3]. - Demographic shifts, particularly aging populations in regions like Europe and China, are expected to slow global economic growth rates, impacting long-term economic forecasts [1][9]. - Despite global trends, there remain substantial investment opportunities in U.S. technology companies, although the U.S. stock market is projected to underperform compared to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. - High debt levels in developed countries, comparable to those during World War II, pose potential risks if interest rates rise, increasing debt repayment costs [1][11]. - The role of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, as evidenced by its increasing negative correlation with gold and the rising correlation with alternative assets like Bitcoin [1][13]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Economic Trends - The report discusses the reversal of globalization trends and the implications of demographic changes on economic growth, particularly the decline in the working-age population in the U.S., Europe, and China [1][9][10]. U.S. Market Opportunities - Investment opportunities in U.S. technology firms remain robust, despite a forecasted underperformance of the U.S. stock market relative to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. Debt and Economic Stability - The report highlights the concerning levels of debt in developed nations, with the U.S. debt repayment costs projected to exceed defense budgets in 2024, a historical indicator of potential negative outcomes [1][12]. Dollar Dynamics - The report emphasizes the changing perception of the U.S. dollar, noting its declining status as a safe-haven asset and the increasing relevance of alternative assets in investor portfolios [1][14][17]. Future Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor indicators such as the dollar's exchange rates, its share in global transactions, and its correlation with risk assets to gauge shifts in perceptions of its stability [1][12].

一、央行突击降准的牛市！央行开展1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作，其中，3个月（91天）期操作量8000亿元，6个月（182天）期操作量6000亿元。只不过更 多的后续刺激，可能要在美联储三四季度正式开始降息，我们这边的进一步宽松刺激才会落地。 在目前低利率的宏观环境下，如果财政和货币刺激先后落地，我们后续很可能会迎来924的2.0版本。因为从结构性分化到盈利效应带动增量资金进入，其实 也就差了中间财政刺激和货币宽松这把火。 当然了，这里还是那句话，不管是回顾历史还是对比现在，里面很多都是个人的主观看法和记录。这些看法和记录本身并不一定对，未来也会随着实际情况 的变化，不断的进行修正。 二、A股市场整体行情还是比较乐观的，到目前为止都没有一根大阴线，如果有是不错的上车机会。 关于后市，A股周线已经五连阳，下周收月线，月线也是阳线，月线三连阳，这都是后市长期多头的形态。 质疑牛市的声音不多了，但涨的并不快，3674高点可能8月份就过去了。7月底还有重要的消息面，下周四之前应该会出公告，也是个潜在利好催化。 但是，跌到最近的关键点位后，依旧有望在增量资金入场和板块轮动时期继续拉升。加上，大盘的2024年至今的高点虽在 ...

Market Performance - The US stock indices collectively rose over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.26% to 44,901.92 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 1.02% to 21,108.32 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.46% to 6,388.64 points [1] - Year-to-date, the Dow Jones has increased by 5.54%, the Nasdaq by 9.31%, and the S&P 500 by 8.62% [1] Earnings Reports - Over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded market expectations [1] - Approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies have released their earnings, with an expected overall growth of 7.7% in Q2 earnings compared to the previous year [4] Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence in the performance of major tech stocks, with Nvidia and Microsoft reaching new highs, while Tesla and Intel have seen declines of 21% and 10.39% respectively [2] - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.6, significantly above the long-term average of 15.8 [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, as officials seek more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] - Recent inflation data shows an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in June, indicating rising inflationary pressures [4]