01 微醺启示录 文 | 酒讯 方圆 白酒往低度市场扎堆，啤酒掀起无醇浪潮，连隔壁药房都爆发了一波解酒经济。理性饮酒，力图从源头和终局把酒精弱 化甚至"消灭"。 从根源上来看，一切变化的源头来自主力消费人群的迭代。年轻人如今以微醺姿态坐在酒桌"C位"，放下豪放的狂饮酒 杯，时代交接悄然完成：曾经被质疑 "不懂酒" 的人，正以理性重新定义酒杯里的时代；从低度白酒到无醇啤酒再到解 酒药，他们滋养出一片新的酒业天地。 "理性饮酒"的概念自始至终一直存在人类饮酒历史中。西周初年周公旦颁布的《酒诰》，警示人们切不可因沉湎于酒而 误国、误事、误身；《战国策》中也记录有大禹"后世必有因酒而亡国者"的观点；公元前518年，孔子在河南鹿邑留下 了"唯酒无量，不及乱"的处世箴言。 进入现代社会，英国在1981年首次提出"Sensible Drinking"（明智饮酒）概念，2004年帝亚吉欧等国际烈酒巨头将"理性 饮酒"概念引入中国，2008年中国酒业协会正式提出"理性饮酒"理念，以及2015年中国首个"全国理性饮酒日"启幕。从 文化根基到行业实践，理性饮酒与中国酒水消费市场相生相伴的紧密关系已经跨越几千年时光。 业协会公众号截 ...

Company Dynamics - Moutai is set to launch ten new products in five countries as part of its "Going Global" series, with a release planned for the 2025 Osaka World Expo [1] - Meituan has initiated a promotional campaign for Moutai, offering limited-time sales of 1,499 yuan per bottle during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The Moutai Airport initiative to allow passengers to purchase Moutai with a 100% winning chance was announced but subsequently canceled [3] Industry Trends - Tsingtao Brewery has emphasized its "fresh beer" strategy, focusing on key products like classic, pure draft, and white beer to drive growth [4] - China Resources Snow Beer has reported a significant increase in sales, with daily sales of a new product surpassing 40,000 cans [5] - Yingjia Wine has set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [6] Regulatory Changes - A new national standard for sauce-flavored liquor has been implemented, clarifying definitions and production processes to aid consumer understanding [7] Market Performance - JD.com reported a 150% year-on-year increase in sales for premium liquor during the 618 shopping festival, with specific categories seeing even higher growth [8] Executive Changes - Rémy Cointreau has appointed Franck Marilly as the new CEO, replacing Eric Vallat amid declining sales [9] - Pernod Ricard has also made leadership changes in its cognac division, reflecting adjustments in response to market challenges [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has elected Wu Yuefei as the new vice chairman of its board [11] Corporate Restructuring - Wuliangye has undergone management changes within its sales company, integrating its brand management and sales functions [12] - Chongqing Beer has welcomed a new CFO from PepsiCo, indicating a strategic shift in its financial leadership [13] - Luzhou Laojiao has seen the resignation of a board member, marking a significant change in its governance [14] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities has indicated that the beverage and beer sectors are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives to boost consumption [15] - New products from Jiuziyuan are being introduced at competitive prices, aiming to capture market interest during the festive season [16]

Core Insights - The collaboration between the National Sugar and Wine Fair and Meituan Flash Purchase aims to reshape the growth paradigm of the Chinese food and beverage industry by leveraging digital retail capabilities to enhance consumption scenarios and channel models [1][2] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The National Sugar and Wine Fair provides forward-looking insights and comprehensive resources, while Meituan Flash Purchase offers validated instant retail solutions to facilitate low-risk, high-efficiency channel expansion for wine enterprises and distributors [1][3] Group 2: Regional Potential Activation - The event focuses on the characteristics of the regional market in Changsha, aiming to explore how to utilize instant retail to unlock new consumption potential in the wine sector within Central China [2][3] Group 3: Innovative Ecosystem Building - The initiative promotes deep integration among brand owners, distributors, retail terminals, and online platforms, accelerating the establishment of a new ecosystem characterized by "online selection + instant delivery" to lay the foundation for new opportunities in the industry [3] Group 4: Event Details - The promotional event will take place on June 5, 2025, at the International Wine and Food City in Changsha, featuring a comprehensive agenda including expert insights and discussions on the flash warehouse business model [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company is making significant strides in brand upgrading, technological breakthroughs, market expansion, and cultural empowerment as part of its "Revitalization of Lu Liquor" strategy, showcasing a vibrant and innovative development momentum in May [1]. Product Development - The launch event for three strategic new products, "Gold Edition," "Silver Edition," and "Hong Edition," took place on May 19 in Jinan, marking a significant step in the company's provincial banquet brand layout [2][4]. - The new products integrate traditional "Joy Culture" with modern business elements, featuring a rich taste suitable for high-end banquet scenarios [4]. - The event reinforced the brand's high-end image through immersive experiences like fashion shows and wine tastings, reflecting strong market confidence [4][5]. Cultural Marketing - The event introduced a new model of "Cultural Appreciation Meeting," blending ancient brewing wisdom with modern branding demands [5]. - The company is committed to deepening its market presence in the provincial capital, with the new product launch being a key move in its banquet strategy [5]. Collaborative Efforts - The second "Gu Bei Yuan 1983" Table Tennis Tournament attracted 62 teams, effectively enhancing brand affinity through a "Sports + Brand" innovative model [6]. - Cultural initiatives, such as the "1983, Chinese Wine Affairs" seminar and a youth speech competition, highlight the company's cultural soft power and commitment to talent development [8]. Technological Advancements - The company received praise from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association for its intelligent brewing achievements, establishing itself as an industry benchmark [9]. - Collaborations with local grain experts aim to enhance quality control across the entire supply chain, further solidifying technological barriers [9]. Strategic Insights - The company emphasizes strategic determination, innovation integration, and talent cultivation as key lessons from its May activities, aligning with its "14th Five-Year" strategic plan [11][12][13]. - The focus on maintaining a "zero-based mindset" and user-centric innovation is crucial for future growth [14][15]. Conclusion - The achievements in May reflect the collective efforts of the company's workforce, with a strong commitment to the revitalization of Lu liquor and a vision for sustainable growth [16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett's investment actions, particularly in the consumer sector, are closely watched, with his recent significant investment in Constellation Brands drawing attention [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Actions - In Q4 2024, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 5.6243 million shares of Constellation Brands, valued at approximately $1.243 billion [2]. - In Q1 2025, Buffett increased his holdings in Constellation Brands by 638.47 million shares, a 113.52% increase, raising his total shares to 12.09 million, which represents 6.6% of the company, valued at around $2.2 billion [2]. - Notably, during the same period, Buffett significantly reduced his bank stock holdings while continuing to invest in Constellation Brands, marking it as his largest increase in Q1 [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Constellation Brands is one of the largest producers of wine, beer, and spirits globally, with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy, and holds a significant position in the high-end beverage market [5][7]. - The company's beer segment is its largest, with brands like Corona and Modelo leading the U.S. import beer market [5]. - Despite recent financial struggles, including three years of losses in the past five fiscal years, the company has a stable cash flow and strong brand value [3][13]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, was $10.209 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.48% [4]. - Operating profit for the same period was $3.365 billion, reflecting a 5.65% increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the company reported a net loss of $0.81 million, primarily due to significant investment losses related to its stake in Canopy Growth [4][16]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Constellation Brands has been divesting underperforming brands, particularly in the wine and spirits sectors, to focus on its more profitable beer business [24][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from a projected 5.1% compound annual growth rate in the global beer market, with plans to leverage its strong brands for international expansion [27][29]. - The anticipated return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve as the company sheds low-performing assets and concentrates on its beer segment [29]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Several major investment firms, including Fidelity, Vanguard, and BlackRock, have also increased their stakes in Constellation Brands, indicating a positive sentiment towards the company [22]. - The company's stock is considered undervalued, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of around 12 times, and it has a stable dividend history, having increased its dividend for ten consecutive years [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "618 War" in e-commerce has significantly impacted the pricing and sales strategies of traditional liquor distributors, particularly for premium brands like Moutai, with online prices dropping below wholesale levels [1][3][6]. E-commerce Competition - JD.com and Meituan have initiated aggressive pricing strategies for premium liquor, with Moutai priced at 1998 RMB on Meituan and 1990 RMB on Pinduoduo, both below the wholesale price of 2130 RMB [2][3]. - The competition has led to a situation where traditional distributors are struggling to maintain margins, with some describing their situation as "naked running" due to the transparency and aggressive pricing of e-commerce platforms [2][6]. Impact on Traditional Distributors - Traditional liquor distributors are facing severe challenges, with predictions that at least 50% may not survive due to the aggressive pricing strategies of e-commerce platforms [6][7]. - The industry is experiencing a significant shift, with many distributors needing to adapt to the new e-commerce landscape or risk obsolescence [9][12]. Consumer Behavior - The low prices during the "618 War" have attracted consumers, with reports of individuals purchasing multiple bottles to take advantage of the deals [4][5]. - Consumers are increasingly favoring online platforms for their convenience and pricing, which may lead to a long-term shift in purchasing habits [11][12]. Industry Response - Experts suggest that the liquor industry must view e-commerce as a long-term strategy rather than a short-term channel, advocating for a shift in mindset towards integrating e-commerce into core business strategies [9][12]. - The industry is also seeing a call for collaboration between traditional and online sales channels to optimize market reach and consumer engagement [11][12].

华泰证券研报指出，预计全年的电表招标需求或维持在9000万只左右(2024年8939万台)，本轮替换周期 高峰有望延续至2026年。价格层面，继续呈现下滑趋势，整体环比降幅约9.6%；市场集中度相对稳 定。后续分布式"四可"要求下对于智能电表模块升级要求与物联表需求提升，相关设备投资有望受到带 动。近年来电表企业股利支付情况较好，当前我们认为电表企业估值已处于低位。 ｜2025年5月30日星期五｜ NO.1中信证券：当前消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线 中信证券研报指出，当前消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线：1)回归理性、品质升级与消费平替并行；2)快 乐生活、为精神满足感和情绪价值付费；3)技术进步和迭代催生的消费新方向，这将提供诸多长期结构 性"新消费"机会，建议持续配置。维持建议从攻守兼备配置渐进至弹性配置，攻守兼备：消费互联网、 低估值高回报且经营有望率先企稳的乳制品、大众餐饮等板块。弹性配置：顺周期特征明显的餐饮供应 链、酒类、人力资源服务、酒店等行业。提振内需的政策预期将逐渐增强，消费配置表现有望迎来高 潮，再次强调增配消费。 NO.2华泰证券：电表企业估值已处于低位 NO.3中金：微盘风格可能呈现优势边际弱 ...

Group 1 - The company, Jiangxi Lvxin, has entered into an asset purchase agreement with Fujian Zhongniang to acquire target assets for a total consideration of HKD 87.3 million, which will be paid through the issuance of 136 million shares at an issue price of HKD 0.64 per share [1] - The target assets include production and supporting assets such as automated machinery and equipment, which were invested in by the seller from 2020 to 2022, with an annual production capacity of 12,000 tons of wine products [1][3] - The company has also signed a 20-year lease agreement with Fujian Zhongniang for the property, with a total rental amount of RMB 20 million, to be paid through the issuance of 34.06 million shares at an issue price of HKD 0.64 per share [2] Group 2 - The property is located in the Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, and the acquisition of production and supporting assets, along with the lease, will enhance the company's production capacity and ensure a stable supply of yellow wine products, aligning with the company's strategic goals [3] - The specifications of the production and supporting assets have been assessed as suitable for the production of the company's yellow wine products, and since these assets have been operational since 2021, only minor modifications are needed to resume operations, significantly reducing installation and testing costs and preparation time compared to procuring new production facilities [3]

Core Insights - Meituan's flash purchase platform reported a significant increase in overall transaction volume, doubling compared to the same period last year within the first 24 hours of the 618 shopping festival [1] Category Summaries - Alcohol category experienced explosive growth, with transaction volume increasing over 18 times compared to the same period last year [1] - 3C home appliances saw a doubling in transaction volume, with mobile phones increasing nearly 1 time, computer and digital products growing nearly 6 times, and various small appliances increasing nearly 2 times [1] - Milk powder sales also saw a significant increase, with transaction volume more than doubling compared to last year [1]