（来源：策略优基基） 昨天（12月3日），白银悄悄干了件大事，盘中价格一举冲上58美元/盎司。又刷新了历史记录。然而就 在几天前，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）及旗下芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）于2025年11月28日突发重大 技术故障，期货和期权交易全部暂停交易。 这个时间点很微妙，就在交易所宕机几分钟前，白银期货价格快速拉升，突破了54美元的高位。虽然官 方解释是技术故障，但不少市场人士猜测，这背后可能是空头交割困难引发的逼空压力——当多头同时 掌控现货和可交割仓单，传统期货定价机制就开始失灵了。 其实今年白银的涨幅已高达103%，涨幅把"顶流"黄金都远远甩在了身后。 一方面，全球货币政策转向宽松的预期不断升温。市场普遍认为12月将开启降息周期，再加上美元走 弱、实际利率下行，自然利好所有贵金属，今年所有贵金属板块都嗨了。而白银作为黄金的小弟，自然 跟着沾光。然而这个小弟还有一个隐藏的身份，它还是工业界的"香饽饽"。 白银的独特之处在于，它不只是金融资产，更是实实在在被"用掉"的工业原料。它正在从传统的贵金属 角色，转型为绿色科技时代不可或缺的战略资源。 光伏电池要用银浆，5G基站离不开导电银粉，新能源汽车的 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 点评 2 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8975 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.18%，持仓 减仓 15932 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 10 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 56315 元/吨，日内涨跌幅 2.7%，持 仓减仓 12837 手至 12.93 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 5250 元/ 吨。供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工 业硅重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步 下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂 坚持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，淡化近月挤仓情 绪，晶硅回调修正，仓单不足情况下近月暂无深跌空间。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 | ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell on December 2 due to a stronger dollar, decreased risk appetite, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, three-month copper closed at $11,145.00 per ton, down $107.00 or 0.95%, after hitting a historical high of $11,334.00 per ton on the previous day [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 27%, primarily driven by concerns over potential shortages [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Factors - Market sentiment remains high for copper, but a correction is anticipated; prices are expected to have upward potential as long as they stay above $11,000 per ton [3] - The strong dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, impacting demand [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The market is assessing the impact of major Chinese smelters' plans to reduce production by 10% next year, which could tighten refined copper supply [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the smelters' reduction plans reinforce the outlook for a tighter refined copper supply [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on December 2, with various metals showing different percentage changes in their prices [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai zinc increased by 0.98% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.64% [1] - Shanghai copper saw a rise of 0.62% [1] - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.48% [1] - Shanghai nickel grew by 0.26% [1] - Stainless steel experienced a slight increase of 0.16% [1] - Alumina rose by 0.15% [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 0.27% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures closed higher on December 2, with significant price increases in several metals, indicating a positive trend in the metal market [1] Summary by Category Copper - LME copper futures rose by $63, closing at $11,252 per ton [1] Aluminum - LME aluminum futures increased by $25, closing at $2,893 per ton [1] Zinc - LME zinc futures saw a rise of $41, closing at $3,096 per ton [1] Lead - LME lead futures increased by $22, closing at $2,002 per ton [1] Nickel - LME nickel futures rose by $99, closing at $14,928 per ton [1] Tin - LME tin futures decreased by $25, closing at $39,136 per ton [1] Cobalt - LME cobalt futures surged by $1,465, closing at $50,035 per ton [1]

所谓金银比，就是黄金价格除以白银价格，由于黄金金融属性强而商品属性弱，白银兼具商品属性与金 融属性，因此金银比可以看作剔除了金融属性的、具备商品属性的指标。 从美联储降息趋势上看，长江期货认为，白银将震荡运行。此前美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言，市场预 期12月降息概率大幅升温，市场预期明年降息次数增加，贵金属价格反弹，白银表现强劲。美国经济数 据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变。在降息 预期和避险需求的支撑下，白银现货延续短缺，预计白银价格仍将具有支撑。 从金银比上看，招商期货指出，当下金银比为75。金银比的主要运行区间已经从1985-2015年的40到85 （中枢为62.5）整体上移到中枢85附近。其中2020年、2021年、2025年分别完成了三次对于金银比区间 （主要是黄金的"货币属性"和白银的"工业属性"）的试探，当前金银比或许还有收窄的空间，但已经需 要警惕风险了。 12月1日上午，白银期货主力合约开盘便跳空上涨超1.7%。 随后高开高走，日内一度涨超7%。截至 11:06，白银期货主力合约报13430元/千克，涨7.07%，已经连续5个交易日飘红，累计 ...

| | | 镍与不锈钢日评20251201:下跌后弱修复 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-21 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 116730.00 | 116710.00 | 113890.00 | 20.00 | 3 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | nt | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 114050.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 117250.00 | 117110.00 | 114230.00 | 140.00 | nr | | | | | 117320.00 | 200.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 117520.00 | 114520.00 | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 收盘价 | 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, the manganese silicon futures market showed characteristics of "intertwined cost support and supply - demand contradictions, and intensified capital games", lacking short - term trend drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile range of 5,550 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mill tender pricing, manganese ore price fluctuations, and the implementation of supply - side production cuts [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile trend. The daily session opened at 5,630 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 5,648 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,606 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,626 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,624 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 144,376 lots, and the open interest was 332,903 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Among the 12 futures contracts, the prices of each contract varied. The total open interest of the variety was 737,538 lots, an increase of 3,127 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 37,054 lots [4][5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main manganese silicon contract was 77,535 contracts, the open interest of put options was 57,811 contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 0.746 [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On November 27, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was 22 yuan/ton, which was smaller than the previous day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On November 27, the total number of registered manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 20,989, a decrease of 200 from the previous trading day [8] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - In the factory sector, recent开工 in Guangxi has been stable, with silicon - manganese production mainly concentrated in Guilin. It uses the spot trading model, and off - peak production results in low electricity costs, so production is relatively smooth. In Guizhou and Yunnan, electricity costs remain high, and new factories are shutting down, leading to a gradual decline in production. In Inner Mongolia, factory开工 has not fluctuated much. There is an expectation that a furnace of new production capacity will be put into operation at the end of the month, and another silicon - manganese furnace may be converted to produce high - chrome. Overall production is expected to have little change [9] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The manganese silicon main contract 2601 showed a volatile trend on the day. The intraday price fluctuated around the average price line, with frequent long - short games but no clear trend. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages were in a short - position arrangement, and the price was running below all the moving averages. The short - term support level was at MA5. If it cannot hold above MA5, the rebound space will be limited [10]

中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长兼秘书长段德炳在今日的上市活动中表示，铂、钯期货和期权 的上市交易，不但有利于铂族金属产业链上下游企业防控风险、稳定经营、妥善应对市场频繁波动带来 的冲击，而且有利于提高资源市场化配置效率，营造产业发展良好秩序与环境，助推行业高质量发展。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者朱玥怡）11月27日，广州期货交易所（"广期所"）新能源金属品种板块迎来新 成员——铂、钯期货和期权，这是继工业硅、碳酸锂、多晶硅品种后，广期所上市的绿色新能源金属品 种。 截至11月27日15时收盘，铂期货成交量6.67万手，持仓量0.76万手，成交额292.31亿元。钯期货成交量 3.42万手，持仓量0.27万手，成交额130.49亿元。 贝壳财经记者关注到，已有部分上市公司就获批成为广州期货交易所铂、钯期货指定交割厂库发布公 告，例如浩通科技（301026.SZ）。浩通科技11月24日公告称，公司长期专注于铂、钯、铑、银等贵金 属二次资源综合利用及相关产品的研发、生产、销售及服务，本次成为铂、钯期货指定交割厂库，有利 于公司将现货市场、期货市场、交割厂库三者有机结合，进一步增强公司的抗风险能力和市场竞争力， 对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile trend in the previous trading session, closing with a doji star, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volatile market with high trading volume. In the short term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, while the trend indicator is rising, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, indicating a stalemate between the two sides. The Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, and consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons. From January to September, global zinc ore production was 9.9647 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,470, and the basis was +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On November 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 47,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,744 to 74,641 tons compared to the previous day, which is a negative factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main net position was short, and the short positions decreased, which is a negative factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 24 was 190,745 lots, and the trading value was 2.13195037 billion yuan. The total open interest was 193,287 lots, a decrease of 1,957 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,420 - 22,520 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,230 - 22,330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,510 - 22,610 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets in China on November 24 was 151,700 tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 24 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 24 were 74,641 tons, an increase of 1,744 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 24 - The previous day's inventory was 47,325 tons, with 600 tons of warehousing and 500 tons of ex - warehousing. The current inventory was 47,425 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The registered warrants were 44,350 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 6.48% [8]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 24 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased, with increases ranging from 60 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 60 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions decreased, with decreases ranging from 100 yuan/metal ton to 400 yuan/metal ton. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 24 - The total trading volume of zinc futures contracts (zn2601) of member futures companies was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short positions were 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [18].