1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and although the futures price of lithium carbonate is relatively strong compared to the entire capital market, the slight decline in the futures price still strengthens the price difference of lithium carbonate, suppressing the enthusiasm for delivering new lithium carbonate goods for warehousing. The growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration is poor. Although downstream demand is strong, there is a lack of marginal increase. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the situation of the futures price under pressure remains unchanged. However, attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: - Lithium ore: The demand for domestic high - priced ore is affected by a wait - and - see attitude. Tariff factors have hit the demand expectation of lithium carbonate, and the demand for high - priced mica ore has been greatly affected [3]. - Lithium salt: The growth rate of warehouse receipts has slowed down, and the pressure of circulating inventory has increased. After the centralized cancellation of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts at the beginning of the month, the growth rate of new warehouse receipts is significantly slower than in previous periods. The high basis still significantly inhibits the enthusiasm for warehousing. The production in March reached a record high, and it is expected to remain at a high level in April, and the supply pressure in the spot market is expected to remain [3]. - Cathode materials and lithium batteries: Exports hit ternary lithium more than lithium iron phosphate. The production schedule of domestic lithium iron phosphate is stable, and the expected impact of tariffs on the demand for ternary lithium materials is stronger than that for lithium iron phosphate [3]. - **Market summary**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the futures price is under pressure, but attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium carbonate balance sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, cumulative balance, sample inventory, and sample change of lithium carbonate from March 2023 to March 2025, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is in a delicate balance [6][8]. - **Lithium hydroxide balance sheet**: It presents the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide from March 2023 to March 2025 [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium spodumene import**: It provides data on the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil) from February 2022 to February 2025 [13][17]. - **Chinese lithium ore**: The wait - and - see attitude has hit high - priced domestic ore. It includes data on domestic lithium ore production, weekly inventory, and market prices of lithium concentrate [18][22]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium salt spot and futures prices**: The price of lithium salt fluctuates narrowly around 75,000 yuan. It provides the market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and their price differences from February 2025 to April 2025, as well as data on the futures closing price and basis of lithium carbonate [24][29]. - **Production cost and profit**: The profit of high - grade lithium mica has been significantly repaired. It shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica from September 2024 to April 2025 [35][39]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: It provides data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2025, including production by grade and raw material [40][49]. - **Operating rate**: It shows an upward trend seasonally. It provides data on the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate (overall and by raw material), and lithium hydroxide from 2022 to 2025 [50][54]. - **Monthly import volume of lithium carbonate**: It provides data on the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile from March 2022 to February 2025 [55][59]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: Attention should be paid to the growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration. It includes data on downstream and smelter inventories, weekly inventories, and the number of futures registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate [60][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium iron phosphate**: The operating rate remains at a high level. It provides data on the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate from 2019 to March 2025 [66][70]. - **Ternary materials**: It provides data on the total production, operating rate, import and export volume of ternary materials from 2019 to March 2025 [71][81]. - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: It includes data on the weekly production of batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium), the production of new energy vehicles (pure electric and plug - in hybrid), and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers from 2021 to March 2025 [82][86]. - **Lithium battery import and export volume**: It provides data on the import, export, net export, and net export growth rate of lithium - ion batteries from October 2022 to February 2025 [88][91].

Report Information - Report Date: April 2, 2025 [18] - Analysts: Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie, Feng Fan [19] - Contact Person: Wang Yuwu [20] Market Analysis - On April 1, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,220 yuan/ton and closed at 74,360 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - The trading volume was 77,235 lots, and the open interest was 203,726 lots, a decrease of 6,885 lots from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest of all contracts was 355,825 lots, a decrease of 6,762 lots from the previous trading day, and the total trading volume decreased by 12,413 lots [1] - The overall speculation degree was 0.29, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 19,135 lots, a decrease of 1,380 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, on April 1, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,650 - 72,650 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in April will remain stable at a high level, with a change range of about 1% - 2% [2] - The supply of lithium hydroxide is highly concentrated, and the production of leading enterprises is relatively stable recently. The production in April is expected to be basically the same as that in March, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 30% [2] - In April, market demand is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down. The production of ternary materials is expected to increase by 7.22% month - on - month [2] - In April, as the lithium - battery market gradually enters the peak season, the production scheduling of phosphoric acid iron enterprises is expected to continue to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 68% [2] - Overall, the spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and there is an expectation of further increase. The spot transaction price shows a pattern of weak and volatile operation [2] - As the price falls, the downstream purchasing sentiment improves. The upstream lithium salt plants still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, and a small number of lithium salt plants have reduced production, but the oversupply pattern has not been reversed [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Interval operation, sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3]