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新能源及有色金属日报:受情绪影响,碳酸锂盘面出现反弹-20250605
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:54
库存方面:根据SMM最新统计数据,现货库存为13.16 万吨,其中冶炼厂库存为5.62 万吨,下游库存为4.16 万吨, 其他库存为3.37 万吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 受情绪影响,碳酸锂盘面出现反弹 市场分析 2025年6月4日,碳酸锂主力合约2507开于60180元/吨,收于61080元/吨,当日收盘价较前一日结算价收涨2.55%。 当日成交量为413239手,持仓量为245650手,较前一交易日减少14008手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货升水电碳 830元/吨。所有合约总持仓578740手,较前一交易日减少7135手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加182316手, 成交量增加,整体投机度为1.09 。当日碳酸锂仓单51128手,较上个交易日减少220手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年6月4日电池级碳酸锂报价5.93-6.12万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价5.815-5.915万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.005万元/吨。 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:卖出虚值看涨或熊市价差期权 风险 1、 消费端不及预期, 2、 供应端增量超预期 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:消费环比增长放缓,碳酸锂过剩压力仍在-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The consumer - end's month - on - month growth rate is limited, while the supply - end still has an increment, resulting in a large surplus pressure. As the lithium salt price drops, it suppresses the decline of the mining end price, weakening the cost support. With more uncertainties on the consumer - end in the future, under the weak pattern of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, lithium prices may still have room to fall [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of lithium carbonate opened at 59,800 yuan/ton and closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.33% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 305,161 lots, and the open interest was 259,658 lots, a decrease of 1,351 lots from the previous trading day. All contracts had a total open interest of 585,875 lots, an increase of 12,174 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 151,836 lots from the previous trading day, with an overall speculation degree of 0.76. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 33,397 lots, a decrease of 60 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 3, 2025, the quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 61,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the quoted price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,200 - 59,200 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory was 131,600 tons, including 56,200 tons in smelters, 41,600 tons in downstream enterprises, and 33,700 tons in other inventories [1]. Price Analysis The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate has been continuously moving down. From the demand side, the production increase in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods through long - term contracts and customer - supplied methods. From the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous disk price provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expected increase in market supply. Meanwhile, as the price of lithium ore continues to fall, the cost - side support is gradually weakening, further suppressing the lithium carbonate price [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3].
碳酸锂市场短期内仍将维持弱势运行,价格预计将继续承压
news flash· 2025-06-03 05:51
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply, with prices likely to continue facing downward pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,456 yuan per ton, down 445 yuan per ton from the previous working day [1] - Demand from downstream material manufacturers is limited, with production increases in June being minimal, leading to a reliance on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials for procurement [1] - On the supply side, previous slight price rebounds have provided opportunities for some non-integrated lithium salt manufacturers to resume production, creating expectations for increased market supply [1]
电池级碳酸锂价“跌跌不休”,产业链博弈与企业突围并行
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-05-30 03:09
【环球网财经综合报道】今年以来,电池级碳酸锂价格一路下探,市场格局与产业链发展暗流涌动。生意社数据 显示,5月28日该产品价格为6.12万元/吨,较前一日跌1.64%;29日最新价降至6.02万元/吨,较前一日再跌 1.63%,同比降幅高达44.97%,年初价格还在7.88万元/吨附近徘徊。 价格低位震荡引发业内对供需格局及产业链发展的深度关注。生意社碳酸锂数据分析师称,当前电池级碳酸锂处 于降产能阶段,矿端减产仅是止跌信号,供过于求的市场格局将长期压制价格反弹,预计短期价格将在震荡中运 行。陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣指出,7万元/吨是碳酸锂加工企业的盈亏平衡线,如今 价格已跌破,众多企业或陷入减产停产困境,下游企业虽原材料成本降低,但在激烈市场竞争中也未必能从中受 益。 锂盐企业深受锂价下跌之苦,业绩普遍承压。同花顺数据显示,2024年A股8家锂相关上市公司营收全线下滑,除 锦州永杉锂业净利润同比上涨外,其余7家均出现同比下滑。为保证盈利空间,锂盐企业纷纷调整成本结构,加速 布局国内外盐湖产能。5月26日,盐湖股份公告拟向银团申请不超过18亿元项目贷款,用于4万吨/年基础锂盐一体 化项目 ...
盐湖股份拟申请不超18亿银团贷款 加码锂盐一体化首季营收净利回升
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-05-28 23:46
Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is seeking to optimize its capital structure and reduce financing costs by applying for a project loan of up to 1.8 billion yuan from a syndicate of five financial institutions for its integrated lithium salt project [1][2]. Group 1: Project Loan and Financial Strategy - The company plans to apply for a project loan not exceeding 1.8 billion yuan, with a loan term of 2 years, to be used specifically for the construction and equipment procurement of a 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project [2][3]. - The project is expected to benefit from a 1.5% annual interest subsidy on the principal amount due to its compliance with national financial policies [2]. Group 2: Project Development and Production Capacity - The 40,000 tons/year integrated lithium salt project commenced construction in June 2023, with a total investment of 7.098 billion yuan, aiming to produce 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate and 20,000 tons of lithium chloride [2][3]. - The company plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025, with an overall production capacity of 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate by that year [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - After two consecutive years of declining performance, the company reported a revenue of 3.119 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.145 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and 22.52%, respectively [1][5]. - The company’s revenue had previously dropped significantly in 2023 and 2024, with a total revenue of 21.579 billion yuan and 15.134 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 29.8% and 29.86% [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion - The company is enhancing its lithium salt industry chain through acquisitions, including a recent agreement to invest approximately 300 million USD in Highfield Resources Limited, aiming to become its largest shareholder [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:碳酸锂现货偏弱,需关注期货持仓变化对短期盘面影响-20250528
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:28
Group 1: Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2507 opened at 59,940 yuan/ton and closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 392,469 lots, and the open interest was 293,695 lots, a decrease of 32,777 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 567,772 lots, an increase of 18,973 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the contracts increased by 207,843 lots from the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.49. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,154 lots, a decrease of 825 lots from the previous trading day [2] - The lithium carbonate market showed a gap - down and then a rebound, with wide - range fluctuations during the session and a short - covering rally at the end of the session [2] Group 2: Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 60,800 - 63,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 59,900 - 60,900 yuan/ton, also down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to move down [3] - The supply - demand of the lithium carbonate market remained in an oversupply state, and there was no strong support for price increases. The demand side was stable with limited incremental demand, while the supply side had a significant incremental expectation as the non - integrated lithium salt plants got the opportunity to hedge and resume production with the slight rebound of the futures. Also, the cost support was weakening due to the continuous decline of lithium ore prices, further suppressing the lithium carbonate price [3] Group 3: Strategy - Fundamentally, the situation was weak, but the open interest of the 07 contract was high, and subsequent position reduction might cause large fluctuations. Short - term trading needed to pay attention to risks [4] - Unilateral strategy: Sell on rallies for hedging [4] - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [4] Group 4: Core View - The lithium carbonate spot was weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of futures position changes on the short - term market [1]
经营稳健,价值成长共存——盐湖股份2024年报点评
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-27 13:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.663 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 41%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.401 billion yuan, down 50% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.522 billion yuan, a decrease of 34% year-on-year but an increase of 64% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.33 billion yuan, down 59% year-on-year but up 46% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company’s potassium fertilizer business generated 11.713 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, while lithium carbonate revenue was 3.075 billion yuan, down 52% year-on-year [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 15.134 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 7.848 billion yuan, representing a gross margin of 52% [15]. - The potassium fertilizer segment accounted for 77% of total revenue, while lithium accounted for 20% [12]. - The average selling price for potassium chloride was approximately 2,507 yuan per ton, down 4% year-on-year, while the average selling price for lithium carbonate was about 74,000 yuan per ton, down 56% year-on-year [12]. Market Outlook - The potassium fertilizer business is expected to maintain strong profitability, providing stable cash flow. The lithium business is projected to ramp up production with a 40,000-ton lithium salt project expected to commence in 2025 [12]. - The entry of a state-owned enterprise, WISCO, is anticipated to enhance the company's long-term development potential through system upgrades and resource integration [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a robust cash position and stable earnings from its potassium fertilizer business, leading to expectations for future dividends [12].
雅化集团(002497) - 002497雅化集团投资者关系管理信息20250522
2025-05-23 09:46
Group 1: Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment [2] - The company has a comprehensive production line that enhances efficiency and product quality, exceeding national standards [2] - Yahua is also a leading player in the civil explosives industry, focusing on industry consolidation and expanding its mining service business [2] Group 2: Lithium Production Capacity - The company is constructing a new lithium production line, with a total lithium salt capacity expected to reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [3] - A 30,000-ton lithium carbonate production line was completed and put into operation in 2024, alongside a 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide line currently under construction [3] Group 3: Customer Structure - The customer base primarily consists of long-term agreements, with major clients including TESLA, LGES, and CATL, accounting for 90% of revenue from top clients as of 2024 [4] Group 4: Resource Security - The company has established a diversified lithium resource security system, including self-controlled and purchased mines, with a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore annually from its Zimbabwean Kamativi lithium mine [5][6] Group 5: Risk Management - In 2024, the company utilized lithium carbonate futures for hedging against price fluctuations, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [7] Group 6: Overseas Business Development - Yahua has developed a mature platform for overseas investment and trade, with operations in New Zealand, Australia, and Africa, and plans to expand its mining service business in Zimbabwe and Australia [8] Group 7: Future of Civil Explosives Business - The company aims to leverage policy guidance and its integration capabilities to enhance the quality and competitiveness of its civil explosives business, targeting the formation of 3-5 internationally competitive enterprises by 2027 [9]
新能源及有色金属日报:消息端扰动较多,盘面受消息扰动加大-20250522
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 03:25
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 消息端扰动较多,盘面受消息扰动加大 市场分析 2025年5月21日,碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61060元/吨,收于61100元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.59%。当 日成交量为270174手,持仓量为329205手,较前一交易日减少10468手,根据SMM现货报价,目前期货贴水电碳1950 元/吨。所有合约总持仓571450手,较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加26820手,成 交量增加,整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36393手,较上个交易日减少152手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,2025年5月21日电池级碳酸锂报价6.13-6.48万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.02万元/吨, 工业级碳酸锂报价6.095-6.195万元/吨,较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下行。当前 碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局,价格持续承压。从当前市场成交情况来看,以贸易商与下游材料厂之间的成交为 主,但成交寥寥。下游材料厂在客供及长协比例较高的情况下,等待价格的进一步下探。上游锂盐厂虽挺价情绪 持续,但考虑到目前锂 ...
天齐锂业:矿端供应未出现明显减量,碳酸锂价格仍需底部震荡和磨合
Ju Chao Zi Xun· 2025-05-22 02:40
从趋势上来看,锂盐行业从2023年开始供过于求,这是因为2022年下半年锂盐价格暴涨,吸引了很多新的市场参与者进入到这一行 业,造成了产能的快速扩张,进而影响到了价格。但是目前来看,锂盐价格已经进入到磨底期。 近日,天齐锂业在接受机构调研时表示,公司观察到近期锂精矿价格持续回落,但矿端供应尚未出现明显减量,产业链仍处于盈利压 力向上游传导阶段,锂盐端成本支撑线逐步下移。近期碳酸锂价格一度在每吨6.5万元附近出现反弹迹象,但随后再度回落,预计仍需 在此区间进行底部震荡和磨合。 天齐锂业同时认为,行业反转可能仍需等待关键催化因素的出现,例如具备规模的矿山或锂盐厂减产、下游需求进一步增长等。具体 价格走势受经济形势、市场参与者的博弈、预期及行为等多重因素影响,因此公司不对具体价格做指引,而是从行业现状与趋势展开 分析。 从需求来看,2025年,全球能源转型已进入关键阶段。各国政府、企业及社会各界正加速推动清洁能源的应用,以应对气候变化的挑 战。在全球范围内,新能源汽车和储能行业的发展仍然获得广泛的支持;从速度、规模、强度三个维度来看,目前全球锂行业仍然处 于发展的上升期。 天齐锂业表示,因此从中长期来看,公司认为锂 ...