Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the consumer landscape in China, highlighting the shift from traditional brands to domestic brands driven by the new generation of consumers, particularly the Z generation, who prioritize practicality and value over brand prestige [3][4]. Group 1: Key Trends in New Consumption - The new consumption trend is characterized by a collective disillusionment with foreign brands, as consumers increasingly favor domestic products that offer better value for money [6][7]. - The rise of domestic brands is not driven by nationalism but by a rationalist approach to consumption, leading to a K-shaped differentiation among domestic brands, where innovative brands thrive while traditional ones decline [12][13]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards domestic electric vehicles, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the market share by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and consumer preferences [9][10]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - New consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, leading to a redefinition of social interactions and consumption patterns, where personal happiness takes precedence over societal expectations [28][32]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a boom, with record-high participation rates, reflecting the desire for personal experiences despite economic constraints [30][32]. - The rise of the "single economy" and "宅经济" (home economy) is reshaping consumer demands, with a preference for personalized, convenient products and services [34][35]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are rapidly declining as new consumption models emerge, exemplified by the success of snack wholesale stores that offer lower prices and a wider variety of products [20][23]. - The shift towards instant retail is gaining momentum, with projections indicating that the market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting a significant change in consumer purchasing behavior [36][37]. - The article emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to the changing landscape, as traditional strategies become less effective in the face of evolving consumer preferences [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of traditional high-end liquor brands like Moutai, which are struggling, versus the rising success of new consumer brands such as Pop Mart, Mixue Ice City, and Laopu Gold, which are thriving in the current market environment [1][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart has achieved a market valuation close to HKD 300 billion, driven by its successful LABUBU plush toy line and a comprehensive IP ecosystem that includes original IP incubation and a blind box mechanism [3][10]. - Mixue Ice City has over 46,000 stores globally, with annual revenue exceeding CNY 24.8 billion and net profit over CNY 4.4 billion, focusing on affordable pricing and quality [4][10]. - Laopu Gold reported sales of CNY 9.8 billion in 2024, a 166% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 254% to CNY 1.47 billion, targeting a younger demographic with culturally rich gold jewelry [5][10]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Pop Mart's strategy involves creating a complete IP incubation system and product lifecycle management, moving beyond just selling blind boxes to a broader range of products [7][14]. - Mixue Ice City emphasizes a strong supply chain and low-cost entry for franchisees, allowing for rapid expansion and high turnover in the beverage market [10][14]. - Laopu Gold differentiates itself by combining traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics, positioning itself in high-end shopping districts and appealing to a younger, fashion-conscious audience [15][16]. Group 3: Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers favoring products that offer emotional value and social currency, as seen in the success of the new consumer brands [9][18]. - The traditional high-end liquor market is experiencing a downturn, with brands like Moutai facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and a decline in the "banquet culture" [18][19]. - The new consumer brands are capitalizing on the demand for affordable, trendy, and culturally relevant products, indicating a significant transformation in the consumption landscape [1][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The 618 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [23][24] - The beauty sector performed well during the 618 festival, with total GMV across four major platforms reaching 65.9 billion yuan, growing over 10% year-on-year [23][24] - International high-end beauty brands showed signs of recovery, with brands like Lancôme and Estée Lauder maintaining strong positions on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [32] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2062.20 points, down 2.75% for the week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points [5][14] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 7.89%, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][17] 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 618 shopping festival was extended to the longest duration in history, from May 13 to June 20, 2025 [23] - Tmall's GMV during the festival grew by 10%, marking the largest increase in three years, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales [24][29] - Douyin's e-commerce saw over 60,000 brands doubling their sales, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes, particularly in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][35] - Recommended companies include Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, Mao Ge Ping, and Pei Lai Ya, among others [38] Company Performance Highlights - Lao Pu Gold reported a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a net profit increase of 253.9% [37] - Mao Ge Ping achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan for FY2024, growing by 34.6%, with a net profit increase of 33% [37] - Pei Lai Ya's revenue for 2024 was 10.778 billion yuan, up 21%, with a net profit increase of 30% [37]

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 正所谓，枪炮一响，黄金万两。 在当今这个全球政局极度不稳定的情况下，枪炮一响，不仅带来黄金万两，还在让黄金的价值，走向新高。 去年以来，随着金价飞涨，黄金首饰企业一度陷入低潮。 人们对于黄金 "越涨越买"的热情，并没有延伸到黄金首饰之上。 2022 至 2024 年间，上海黄金交易所 Au9999 品种的收盘价均值同比分别实现了 5% 、 15% 和 24% 的 增长。 同期， 2023 年至 2024 年的黄金首饰消费量同比先是上升了 8% ，随后却遭遇了 24.7% 的剧烈下滑。 这一变化清晰地表明，金价的适度上涨能够激发黄金首饰的消费热情，但当价格攀升至一定程度时，居民消费 量便 大幅 减少。 这样的市场态势对于依赖加工费为生的黄金饰品店来说，无疑面临着极大的经营压力。 以周大福为例， 2024 年，公司股价下跌超 30% ，市值较最高点一度蒸发约 800 亿港元。 股价下跌的背后，是周大福的业绩未达预期，净利润也远低于市场预期，毛利率甚至降至 2009 年以来最低。 然而今年 4 月以来，黄金首饰企业全线大涨， A 股市场 ...

——美护主线 行业变化： （1）5 月综合天猫+抖音，国货绽家、斐萃、PA、毛戈平、完美日记、科兰黎、六神、newpage、珂蔓 朵、拉芳等表现亮眼；日韩龙头复苏显著。5 月综合天猫+抖音，国货品牌中斐萃在低基数下延续高增 长，5 月GMV 体量超6000w，绽家、PA、newpage 、科兰黎、珂蔓朵、拉芳、创福康增速均超100%； 毛戈平、RV、六神、完美日记5 月双渠道GMV 增速超50%。海外品牌中SKII、后、雅漾增长亮眼。品 牌排名：5 月抖音TOP10 国货占比30%，韩束蝉联第一，珀莱雅、自然堂分别位列TOP4/10；天猫 TOP10 国货占比20%，珀莱雅蝉联第一，薇诺娜位列TOP10。 （2）若羽臣回购价格大幅上调至88.4 元/股。若羽臣公告调整2025 年度第一期回购的价格上限，由 30.22 元/股大幅上调至88.4 元/股；此外回购方案其他内容不变，预计回购金额约1-2 亿元（含），截至 6.9 当前已累计回购942 万，预计剩余回购金额约0.9-1.9 亿元。调整原因主系股价持续超出原回购上 限，公司基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心和对公司价值的认可，同时以保障回购顺利实施。 （ ...

最近，国际现货黄金价格"跌跌不休"。 中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢认为， 目前国际黄金价格处于3500美元遇阻承压回落调整阶段，长 期上涨趋势并未改变 ，预计年内突破3500美元概率较高。值得一提的是，中国、越南、印度等新兴市 场国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 欧洲中央银行近日发布的报告指出， 黄金供给的变化是未来金价走势的重要变量 。以往经验表明，黄 金供给曾对需求上升做出弹性反应，未来官方部门的黄金储备需求若进一步上升，可能会带动全球黄金 供给进一步增加。 国内各品牌金饰价格也随之波动， 金饰克价4天跌15元~19元不等 。其中，周生生足金饰品价格呈现出 5天4跌态势。6月15日-20日周生生足金饰品克单价分别为1038元、1037元、1024元、1023元、1023元、 1020元，6月20日较15日每克下跌18元。 此外，老庙黄金为1012元/克，较16日下跌19元/克；周大福为1020元/克，较16日下跌15元/克；老凤祥 为1018元/克，较16日下跌17元/克。 | EASIX | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 避险抗通胀,长期配黄金 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the emergence of a "new consumption" sector driven by external market fluctuations, subdued domestic demand, and a scarcity of quality consumer assets, suggesting that structured opportunities will continue to evolve in the market [1] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" trend is characterized as a strong alpha market that is less affected by macro disturbances, with quality new consumer brands experiencing growth due to structural dividends and product cycles [2] - Sectors such as beauty care and gold jewelry are expected to see a recovery in optional consumption, with brands that have differentiated market experiences likely to achieve counter-cyclical growth [2] Group 2: IP and AI Opportunities - The IP retail industry in China, exemplified by companies like Sanrio, has maintained high levels of prosperity since 2021, with a complete and high-quality industrial chain emerging from content production to diverse consumer monetization [3] - The AI sector is also witnessing increased application scenarios and consumer payment conversions, particularly in human resource management and B2B cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 3: Offline Retail and Services - The overall revenue growth for offline services and retail is expected to remain under pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement in consumption data at both the macro and micro levels [4] - The combination of policy support and low base effects is anticipated to sustain the upward trend in consumption data, with specific sectors like hotels and personal services showing signs of stabilization and growth [4]

6月19日，港股低开低走，恒生指数收跌1.99%，报23237.74点；恒生科技指数跌2.42%， 报 5088.32点；恒生中国企业指数跌 2.13%，报8410.94点。全日大市成交额 为 2201亿港元，南向资金净买入额 为 14.27亿港元。 | 恒生指数 | 恒生国企 | 恒生科技 | | --- | --- | --- | | 23237.74 8410.94 | | 5088.32 | | -472.95 -1.99% -183.25 -2.13% -126.09 -2.42% | | | 石药集团跌6.40%，中升控股跌5.94%，阿里健康跌5.26%，领跌蓝筹。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 石约集团 | 1093 | 7.610 c | -0.520 | -6.40% | 24.60亿 | 61.26% | | 2 | 中升控股 | 0881 | 11.720 c | -0.740 | -5.94% | 1.03亿 ...

黄金珠宝本轮行情持续性探讨 20250618 摘要 2024 年上半年，周大福和老凤祥整体增速约为 5 个百分点，老庙增长 5-6 个百分点，潮宏基表现较好，增长幅度在 30%左右。但若剔除金价 上涨因素（约十几%），各品牌销量均有所下滑，仅潮宏基保持平稳增 长。 预计 2025 年，周大福和老凤祥力求维持现有门店数量，不撤店。潮宏 基计划撤掉部分绩效差的门店以提升整体业绩，全年目标是跟随黄金珠 宝行业大节奏，预计增速为 25%，同店增速预计 20%左右。 长虹佳华新开门店面积 60-80 平米，前期投入（含黄金货品铺设）约 700 万-900 万元，需铺设 8-10 公斤黄金。目前单店年流水平均 600 万-800 万元，回本周期约三年，相比两年前有所拉长。 头部品牌周大福正进行全国范围大规模调整，预计撤店 5,000-6,000 家。 公司评估佐丹奴卡营业额低于 80 万的门店，计划逐步撤掉。预计 2026 年珠宝行业门店调整基本完成。 目前克重黄金占比约为 60%-65%，一口价黄金占比约为 30%-35%， 镶嵌类和 18K 金产品占比不到 5%。克重黄金纯利率约为 5%-8%，一 口价黄金纯利率约为 ...

商贸零售行业2025年度中期投资策略 维稳、谋变，重视新消费 解慧新 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2025年6月19日 * 1 01 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 目录 02 医美 03 黄金珠宝 00 零售行业总览 04 商超百货 05 零售板块投资建议 06 风险提示 01 美妆 C O N T E N T S 零售行业总览——细分板块逻辑梳理 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 • 美护：25年1-5月，美容护理板块整体表现强劲。美护赛道悦己属性强，对消费者新需求变化敏感度高，逐步成为新消费的主力赛道。25年下半 年重点聚焦三条投资主线：①产品势能强劲、数据高增；②经营情况改善；③龙头大而全的企业。推荐巨子生物、毛戈平、上美股份、珀莱雅、 丸美生物、润本股份。 • 医美：胶原蛋白赛道景气度高且成长性强；行业需求整体承压情况下对渠道管理能力以及医美产品的运营能力提出更高要求，产品管线的持续扩 充以及平台化运营能力对新一轮投资周期至关重要；建议关注新材料以及新产品管线催化，推荐锦波生物、爱美客。 • 黄金珠宝：近年来，消费者对"非必要支出"更加谨慎，黄金因其卓 ...