1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, but some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. With the raw material market being generally strong, some traders and downstream buyers have increased their purchases. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, while that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, the supply will decrease slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and sample trading may decline. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, with the spot price between 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China at 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, and that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, some plants are expected to shut down for about 20 days, and the supply will decrease slightly. The overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between butadiene rubber contracts 10 - 11 was 5 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,770 tons, an increase of 280 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 4, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of September 4, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.38 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.45%, an increase of 0.54% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from last week [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last month. As of September 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.16%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [35]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: As of September 4, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 462 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 5, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,910 tons, an increase of 190 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,650 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 7,260 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week [42]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Tire开工率**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, an increase of 8.87% month - on - month and 11.48% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.18% year - on - year [48].

Market Overview - On September 5, the rubber sector increased by 3.75% compared to the previous trading day, with Sanwei Equipment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the rubber sector showed significant gains, with Sanwei Equipment rising by 9.75% to a closing price of 15.99, and Tian Tie Technology increasing by 6.39% to 8.82 [1] - Other notable performers included Heimao Co. at 11.40 (+6.34%), Kexin New Source at 47.42 (+6.04%), and Sanwei Co. at 13.29 (+5.31%) [1] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The trading volume for Sanwei Equipment was 71,200 shares, with a transaction value of 111 million yuan, while Tian Tie Technology had a volume of 692,500 shares and a transaction value of 601 million yuan [1] - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 5.28 million yuan from institutional investors and 41.84 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 47.12 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - Tian Tie Technology had a net inflow of 50.17 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 35.93 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Heimao Co. also saw a net inflow of 28.30 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 13.92 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Kexin New Source had a net inflow of 22.21 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.37 million yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight decline. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories during the upcoming traditional peak season [8] - For BR, production is expected to decline in September, but downstream demand is likely to pick up during the traditional peak season, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation. The inventory is expected to remain stable, and the cost - side support still exists [8] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,960 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,735 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,810 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,845 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Global Natural Rubber Supply and Demand - ANRPC's July 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in July would slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, while the cumulative consumption would decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] China's Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative sales in China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, up about 13% year - on - year [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, up 25% year - on - year; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, up 9% year - on - year. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year. The export of standard rubber to China was 398,000 tons, down 15% year - on - year; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 65,000 tons, up 306% year - on - year; the export of latex to China was 157,000 tons, up 65% year - on - year [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheet rubber, rubber in primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, up 2.47% month - on - month and down 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, up 21.82% year - on - year [3] Cote d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, up 14.3% compared with the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] China's Rubber Tire Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, up 5.4% year - on - year, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, up 4.9% year - on - year, and the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, up 4.9% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 910 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,293 yuan/ton (+ 54.64), the NR basis was 403.00 yuan/ton (+ 34.00); the price of whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,845 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton (+ 20) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 61.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55) [5][6] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (- 3,908), the RU futures inventory was 178,640 tons (+ 170), and the NR futures inventory was 45,662 tons (+ 805) [7] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On September 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,343 yuan/ton (+ 16) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [7] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 24,650 tons (- 450) [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][12][22] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2][12][22] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2][12][22] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including BR and BD, by analyzing various indicators such as prices, production and processing profits, and import/export profits [3][13][23]. Summary by Category BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Position Data**: On September 4, the closing price of the main contract was 11,810, down 75 from the previous day and 170 from August 5; the position volume was 26,614, a daily decrease of 2,330 and a decrease of 14,464 from August 5; the trading volume was 130,504, a daily increase of 25,435 and a decrease of 1,793 from August 5 [3][13][23]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Virtual - Real Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts remained at 12,540 on September 4, with an increase of 280 compared to August 5; the virtual - real ratio was 10.61, a daily decrease of 1 and a decrease of 6 from August 5 [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 90, a daily increase of 75 and an increase of 120 from August 5; the 8 - 9 month spread was 305, an increase of 290 from August 5; the 9 - 10 month spread was 20, an increase of 35 from August 5 [3][13][23]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price remained at 11,900 on September 4, a decrease of 50 from August 5; the Chuanhua market price was 11,750, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and 150 from August 5; the Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, unchanged [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 67, a daily increase of 26 and a decrease of 35 from August 5; the on - screen processing profit was - 157, a daily decrease of 50 and a decrease of 155 from August 5; the import profit was - 86,106, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 60 from August 5; the export profit was - 306, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 223 from August 5 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Prices**: On September 4, the Shandong market price was 9,575, a decrease of 25 from the previous day and 15 from August 5; the Jiangsu market price was 9,350, a decrease of 50 from the previous day and 50 from August 5; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500, unchanged; the CFR China price was 1,095, unchanged [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data was incomplete; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186, a daily decrease of 50 and a decrease of 120 from August 5; the import profit was 377, a daily decrease of 50 and a decrease of 51 from August 5; the export profit was - 975, a daily increase of 44 and an increase of 222 from August 5 [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,125, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 50 from August 5; the ABS production profit was - 12, a daily increase of 3 and a decrease of 45 from August 5; the SBS 791 - H production profit was 20, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 140 from August 5 [3][13][23]. Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: On September 4, the Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,080, an increase of 80 from the previous day and 180 from August 5; the RU - BR spread was - 10,654, an increase of 2,405 from the previous day and 14,479 from August 5; the NR - BR spread was - 13,879, an increase of 2,350 from the previous day and 14,419 from August 5 [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 300, an increase of 50 from the previous day and 100 from August 5; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 100 from August 5 [3][13][23].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract opening at 15,960.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 16,260.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.20% increase [1] - The current market for natural rubber shows a strong upward trend, with institutions suggesting a slightly strong fundamental outlook despite speculative pressures [1] - The impact of weather conditions in major Asian rubber-producing regions is causing short-term market disturbances, particularly due to Typhoon "Jianyu" affecting Hainan's rubber industry [2] Group 2 - Hainan Rubber (601118) reported damage from Typhoon "Jianyu," with approximately 0.28 million mu of rubber plantation rendered unusable and an estimated reduction of 0.25 million tons in dry rubber output for the year [2] - The overall supply impact from the disaster is considered limited, but weather remains a critical variable until the end of the peak production season [2] - The price of natural rubber is expected to remain strong as it approaches the end of the year, with seasonal trends indicating a tendency for prices to rise [2]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,810.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting a 2.12% increase [1] - The supply side shows that the capacity utilization rate of China's high cis-butadiene rubber industry is around 75%, which is relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand is supported by a slight decrease in finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, while overall inventory levels remain high [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient, but recent maintenance shutdowns in Shandong and East China may lead to a slight decrease in domestic supply [2] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to improve next week as maintenance schedules are completed, although some companies are still facing production restrictions [2] - The BR2510 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,670 to 12,200 CNY [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be volatile in the short term and likely to strengthen in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to remain range - bound [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Short - term: Consider closing out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to be volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] - **Sugar**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long term; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] - **Pulp**: Expected to be volatile [16] - **Logs**: Expected to be weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex pattern with different trends for various products. The hog cycle is still in a downward phase in the short - to - medium term but may turn around in 2026 if de - capacity policies are implemented. Oils and fats are affected by factors such as weather, trade, and demand, with short - term volatility and medium - term upward potential. Protein meal is expected to remain range - bound. Other products like natural rubber, cotton, etc., also have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price trends [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to concerns about US soybean demand, US soybeans declined on Wednesday, and domestic oils continued to consolidate. The macro environment includes a weaker US dollar and falling crude oil prices. The US soybean growing area is affected by drought, and the export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally, and palm oil inventory accumulation may be limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Volatile adjustment; Medium - term: Likely to strengthen [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: International soybean prices are affected by weather, with a possible reduction in US soybean yields in the September report. Brazilian soybean premiums have adjusted, and US soybean exports are affected by the trade war. Domestically, the market is range - bound, and demand may improve as the temperature drops [5] - **Outlook**: Range - bound. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low levels [5] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: Corn prices are generally stable, with local declines. Supply is affected by the release of old - crop inventory and the upcoming new - crop supply. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price difference between corn and wheat is increasing, and wheat substitution may decline [6][7] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Close out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: Supply is abundant in the short term, with an expected increase in the second half of the year. Demand shows a stable ratio of fat to lean pigs. Inventory weight has decreased slightly. In the long term, de - capacity policies may drive price increases in 2026 if implemented [1][7] - **Outlook**: Volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound between 157 - 161. There are many speculation themes, and the short - term supply is limited while demand is stable. The price may rise due to seasonality [10] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound, following natural rubber and supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. Butadiene supply is under no significant pressure, and demand is stable [11] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for cotton prices. The expected increase in purchase prices is limited by the expected large increase in new cotton production. After new cotton is on the market, prices may face downward pressure [11][12] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: International sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic imports are rising, resulting in downward pressure on prices [15] - **Outlook**: Long - term: Volatile and slightly bearish; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The decline is mainly due to the low acceptance of BCTMP pulp. After the 09 contract delivery, the pressure may be alleviated. The market shows a differentiated performance among different types of pulp [16] - **Outlook**: Volatile [16] 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The price decline is due to lower foreign quotes and weaker domestic spot prices. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. Supply pressure will ease in the coming weeks [17][18] - **Outlook**: Weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weakly [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillating [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating strongly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On - hold [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Views - The steel industry's steady - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 doesn't limit steel production, focusing on industrial added - value. The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions and is expected to oscillate at high levels. The coal - coke market is weakening, and the rolled steel and rebar market is in a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - The overall market is weakening, and it is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices. Treasury bonds are trending weakly, and long positions should be held lightly. Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to various factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Logs are expected to run weakly. Oils and fats are likely to oscillate, and meal products are expected to oscillate weakly. Live pigs are expected to see a slight price increase [6][7]. - Natural rubber is expected to remain strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and inventory decline. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF in the polyester industry have different trends based on factors like supply - demand and cost [9]. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy doesn't limit production. The price is relatively strong, with limited fundamental contradictions. The expected reduction in daily hot - metal production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The supply remains high, and the total demand is difficult to show counter - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern hasn't improved significantly. The key lies in the cold - repair path, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock indices**: Most stock indices are in an oscillating state, with the CSI 1000 Index trending downward. The market is weakening, and risk control is recommended [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yields are fluctuating, and the market is trending weakly. Long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate expectations [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but the demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate and rise, but the increase may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is small, the peak season expectation is uncertain, and the delivery willingness is weak. It is expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand is growing. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales conditions [6]. - **Meal products**: The market sentiment has worsened, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is decreasing, the slaughter rate is rising, and the price is expected to rise slightly [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Natural rubber**: The supply is tight, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to remain strong in the short - term [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Their trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment, with different performance and expectations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].