Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,424.47 billion yuan. The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals, while retail, real estate, and public utilities lagged behind [2][8] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 0.86% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increase by 1.74%. In contrast, major U.S. indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.2%, S&P 500 down by 0.14%, and Nasdaq down by 0.24% [2][8] Important News - The "Two New" policy for 2026 was released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, outlining support for large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement. A total of 625 billion yuan in special bonds will be allocated for this initiative, with a subsidy rate of 15% for certain household appliances and a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item [3][9] - Changes to the value-added tax policy for personal housing sales were announced, effective January 1, 2026. Homes sold within two years will incur a 3% VAT, while those sold after two years will be exempt from VAT [3][9] Market Analysis - The A-share market saw active trading in the sci-tech sector, with significant interest in commercial aerospace, terahertz technology, and controllable nuclear fusion. The market liquidity decreased in December, influenced by year-end fund recovery and reduced risk appetite among investors. However, a recovery in investor confidence was noted in the latter half of December due to positive signals from national economic meetings [10][11] - The overall economic environment remains stable, with improvements in fixed asset investment growth and a rebound in import and export growth rates. The CPI has shown an expanding year-on-year increase, while the decline in PPI has narrowed. The macroeconomic policies are expected to continue supporting economic stabilization and growth [12]

｜2025年12月31日星期三｜ NO.1国金证券：白银具备阶段性更高的弹性 12月31日，华西证券（002926）指出，短期贵金属高波动或将持续。其中白银、铂金及钯金受限于流动 性与市场容量，面临的调整幅度可能较大，而黄金与有色金属虽受情绪共振波及，但预计跌幅相对可 控，并有望率先企稳。鉴于此，短期策略以防御为宜，待短期情绪宣泄完毕、市场企稳。 NO.3天风证券：铜价上涨，家电行业材料替代并非一蹴而就 12月31日，天风证券（601162）指出，2025年以来，铜价受海外政策驱动和供需错配等因素影响，涨幅 显著，但从历史经验来看，白电由于其良好的竞争格局，叠加家电龙头通过涨价、推新等方式实现成本 压力传导，盈利能力得以快速修复。我们认为短期保持观察，材料替代并非一蹴而就，长期建议关 注"铝代铜"在政策和成本催化下的实际落地情况。 12月31日，国金证券指出，展望2026，当市场对"AI未知"这一定价逻辑尚未改变时，缺乏秩序仍是黄金 的有利环境。当AI泡沫与黄金构成"哑铃"，黄金作为AI持仓的保险已实现了高光时刻的价值。白银作为 既有"类黄金"属性又与AI电力相关的叙事资产，具备阶段性更高的弹性。但一旦AI叙 ...

善于识变应变求变，于变局中稳大局、开新局，是我们党领导人民战胜一切风险挑战、牢牢把握战略主 动的重要方法。 2026年我们将迎来"十五五"开局之年。党的二十届四中全会深刻把握世界大势和时代潮流，就"十五 五"时期我国发展面临的环境作出重大判断，对事关全局的战略任务进行顶层设计和战略擘画。全会审 议通过的"十五五"规划建议，事关我国未来5年发展的新蓝图，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央发扬历 史主动精神的重要体现，是我们党准确识变、科学应变、主动求变的实践成果，为我们掌握主动、赢得 未来提供了重要遵循。 确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，一个重要方面就是增强识变应变求变的自觉和本领，以历史主动精神克 难关、战风险、迎挑战，奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面。 （一） 正确判断形势是科学决策的重要前提。 保持战略清醒，面对前进道路上必然会遇到的风险挑战、矛盾问题，始终做到胸中有数，正是我们掌握 历史主动的重要基础。 习近平总书记指出，"正确认识党和人民事业所处的历史方位和发展阶段，是我们党明确阶段性中心任 务、制定路线方针政策的根本依据"。 从直面"三期叠加"的复杂局面，作出我国经济发展进入新常态的判断，到把握结构失衡、环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the home appliance sector's stock performance will lag behind the market in 2025, with fund holdings dropping to historical lows, but recovery opportunities are emerging [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand - Domestic demand remains resilient supported by the "trade-in" policy, with expectations that the national subsidy policy will continue to underpin demand in 2026 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the advancement of domestic demand policies [1] Group 2: External Demand - The impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing, allowing companies to accelerate local operations overseas [1] - There is significant growth potential in emerging markets, which remains a focus for companies in the sector [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on areas such as the promotion of domestic demand policies, expansion into emerging markets, and the structural upgrade of black appliances [1] - It recommends prioritizing leading home appliance companies that possess scale and technological strength [1]

中信证券研报表示，2025年家电板块股价表现逊于大盘，基金持仓降至历史低位，但后续修复机会已经 显现。内需在"以旧换新"政策支持下保持韧性，我们预计2026年国补政策延续托底需求。外需方面，关 税影响逐步减弱，企业加速推进海外本土化经营，同时新兴市场成长空间仍广阔。建议重点关注内需政 策推进、新兴市场拓展、黑电结构升级等领域，优选具备规模与技术实力的头部家电企业。 ...

Market Data - As of December 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.16 points, closing at 3965.12 points; the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.01% to 1359.87 points; the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.49% to 13604.07 points; and the ChiNext Index gained 0.63% to 3242.9 points [1] - U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, marking a third consecutive day of losses, with the Dow Jones down by 0.2%, the S&P 500 down by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.24% [1] - International oil prices saw a minor drop, with light crude oil futures for February 2026 closing at $57.95 per barrel, down by $0.13 (0.22%), and Brent crude oil futures for February closing at $61.92 per barrel, down by $0.02 (0.03%) [1] Economic Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 625 billion yuan in special government bonds to support a consumption upgrade program for replacing old consumer goods [2] - The NDRC has issued a notice regarding a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for energy-efficient home appliances, providing 15% of the product price as a subsidy, capped at 1500 yuan per item for eligible consumers [3][4] - The 2026 policy has revised the subsidy standards, removing certain appliances from the subsidy list and lowering the maximum subsidy for energy-efficient products from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [3] - A new tax policy effective January 1, 2026, will reduce the value-added tax rate on the sale of residential properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, thereby lowering the tax burden on property sales [4] Industry Developments - The Central Rural Work Conference has outlined plans to stabilize grain and oil production, enhance farmland protection, and promote rural income growth [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry, aiming for over 95% adoption of R&D tools and a 10% increase in labor productivity by 2027 [5] - Changxin Technology's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a planned fundraising amount of 29.5 billion yuan [5] - Beijing Zhiyuan Huazhang Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong, with an expected market value exceeding 50 billion HKD [6]

明年"两新"政策优化支持范围 一是优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合 体、购物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。消费品以旧换新方面，进一步集中 资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消费品"得补率"。继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更 新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类 产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手 表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品（含适老化家居产品）。 二是优化补贴标准。设备更新方面，将住宅老旧电梯更新由定额补贴调整为按电梯层（站）数分档差异 化补贴；在老旧营运货车报废更新补贴中，优先支持更新为电动货车。消费品以旧换新方面，在保持汽 车补贴上限不变的基础上，将定额补贴调整为按车价比例进行补贴；家电以旧换新调整为补贴1级能效 或水效产品，补贴产品售价的15%，单件补贴上限为1500元；数码和智能产品的补贴标准保持此前数码 产品标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have announced a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods trade-in policy to be implemented in 2026, focusing on supporting the replacement of old vehicles and promoting the purchase of new energy vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [2][3]. Group 1: Equipment Update Support - The policy supports equipment updates across various sectors, including industrial, energy, transportation, and healthcare, with an emphasis on enhancing public safety and meeting consumer needs [3]. - Specific support is provided for the scrapping and updating of old commercial vehicles, particularly those meeting lower emission standards, with a focus on transitioning to electric vehicles [3]. - The initiative includes the promotion of electric city buses and the updating of their power batteries, with subsidies based on existing guidelines [3]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Trade-in - Consumers who scrap their registered passenger vehicles and purchase new energy vehicles or fuel-efficient cars will receive subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 yuan) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) for fuel-efficient cars [6]. - For vehicle trade-ins, consumers will receive 8% (up to 15,000 yuan) for new energy vehicles and 6% (up to 13,000 yuan) for fuel-efficient cars [6]. - The policy also includes subsidies for purchasing energy-efficient home appliances, providing 15% of the product price as a subsidy for specific categories, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [9]. Group 3: Recycling and Utilization - The policy aims to enhance the recycling network for old equipment and consumer goods, establishing a comprehensive recovery system to facilitate the recycling process [8]. - It encourages the development of a standardized second-hand goods market and promotes the remanufacturing of old machinery and vehicle parts to improve sustainability [8]. Group 4: Standards and Supervision - The initiative emphasizes the need to improve standards for energy efficiency and pollution control, aligning with international benchmarks [9]. - There will be strict supervision of the implementation of the policy to prevent misuse of funds and ensure compliance with established guidelines [13].

Group 1 - Chinese commercial aerospace companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, utilizing "rideshare launch" models to reduce costs and attract international clients from countries like Egypt, Nepal, and the UAE. The domestic launch cost has decreased to 50,000-60,000 yuan per kilogram, but still lags behind SpaceX, which has a competitive edge due to its high-frequency launches and Starlink project [3][4]. - The home appliance and light manufacturing industries are expected to face pressure on both domestic and foreign sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in overseas sales in the latter half of the year. Emerging markets are anticipated to show stronger demand compared to developed markets, particularly in Latin America and Southeast Asia [5]. - China's automotive exports are projected to reach 5.859 million units in 2024, maintaining the top position globally, with a shift from vehicle exports to a more comprehensive output of technology, brand, and supply chain solutions. This transition reflects a move from "selling products" to "building brands" [6][7]. Group 2 - The development of autonomous driving technology in China is being propelled by high-quality growth initiatives and strategic policies, with companies like Baidu Apollo enhancing safety standards and promoting technology exports. The industry is evolving into a collaborative ecosystem that drives innovation and reliability [7][8]. - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is rapidly globalizing, with brands like Pop Mart and 52TOYS successfully entering overseas markets through localized strategies and partnerships. The market share of Chinese潮玩 in the overseas market is projected to grow from 3% in 2020 to 18% by 2025 [9]. - Chinese companies are increasingly investing in the European market, particularly in renewable energy and high-tech sectors, while facing challenges such as national security reviews and compliance issues. Differentiated strategies and localized investments are essential for success [10]. Group 3 - Amazon's global store initiative aims to cultivate 200 cross-border brands in Shandong over the next three years, focusing on AI-driven strategies and innovative measures to enhance logistics efficiency and support local sellers [11]. - The Chinese commercial vehicle sector is transitioning from product trade to a comprehensive service model, emphasizing lifecycle services and local adaptation. The export of Chinese commercial vehicles to the EU has seen a 42% year-on-year increase [18]. - The digital culture industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with online games, films, and literature becoming key components of global cultural exchange. The industry is encouraged to enhance IP development and international collaboration to overcome cultural barriers [17].

"与2025年政策相比，2026年将智能眼镜纳入了支持范围，这是明显的增量部分。"中泰证券研究所政策 团队首席分析师杨畅向上海证券报记者表示，可以预期这将对相关产业产品形成利好。 国家发展改革委、财政部印发的《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》12月 30日对外发布，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。据悉，为优化实施"两新"政 策，做好政策平稳有序衔接，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求，近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已 向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 将智能眼镜纳入支持范围 2026年"两新"政策，在支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制等三个方面进行了优化。 设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在继续支持工业、电子信息、能源电力、交通运输、物流、 教育、文旅、医疗、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、海关查验、住宅老旧电梯、节能降碳环保等领域 设备更新项目的基础上，将老旧小区加装电梯、养老机构、消防救援设施、检验检测等领域设备更新纳 入支持范围，更好满足民生和安全需要。并且，在消费基础设施领域，增加商业综合体、购物中心 ...