Core Viewpoint - The current market for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals is experiencing significant price volatility, necessitating effective risk management strategies for companies in these sectors [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The application of real options in response to the dramatic fluctuations in gold prices is highlighted as a key strategy for risk management [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The use of laddered options for hedging during high copper prices is emphasized as a practical approach to mitigate risks [1] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The "lock raw materials, lock finished products" strategy under the "synchronous futures and spot" approach is discussed as a method for effective risk control in the chemical sector [1] - The importance of establishing a scientific risk management system using financial instruments like futures and options is underscored to help companies navigate market uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Group 1 - The volatility in commodity prices is significantly impacting the operational limits of upstream and downstream enterprises, highlighting the urgent need for risk management [1] - Futures and derivatives are no longer just speculative tools in the capital market but have become essential for stabilizing production and operations in the real economy [1] - The core of futures services to the real economy lies in accurately addressing enterprises' "price anxiety" and providing a "buffer" for production operations [1] Group 2 - Different industries and enterprises face unique risk points, necessitating tailored hedging strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [2] - Jewelry manufacturers have shifted from a single futures position to deep in-the-money call options to mitigate risks while retaining upside potential [2] - Cable manufacturers utilize flexible options hedging strategies to manage costs effectively and return to a state of secure operations [2] Group 3 - The essence of futures services to the real economy is to adhere to the original intention of "risk hedging" amidst rising market speculation and trading risks [3] - Regulatory bodies are enhancing oversight and risk monitoring systems to prevent chain reactions caused by price fluctuations [3] - The futures industry is committed to educating investors and guiding enterprises to rationally engage in hedging, avoiding speculative tendencies [3]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 3 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：做空动能释放 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：波澜不惊 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面小幅震荡 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡 | 国内价格偏弱 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：金银震荡初显企稳，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅震荡逐步收敛 风险释放后等待低多机会 17 | | 铜：恐慌情绪退坡，铜价企稳 17 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 18 | | 电解铝：流动性收紧带动价格回调后 震荡为主 19 | | 铸造铝合金：连日回调后 铝合金随板块震荡 20 | ...

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建议逢低布局。本次波动与美联储主席提名引发的美宽松预期变化有关，但更主要的可能是此前大宗商 品价格过快上行，交易拥挤度较高，一旦预期变化将引发头寸集中抛售。并且该行认为凯文·沃什的决 策可能受到较多制约，美联储难以像市场担忧彻底转为鹰派，市场短期可能已经提前计入较多悲观预 期。A股当前资金面充裕、业绩改善、产业趋势催化等积极因素并未发生改变，该行认为短期波动已开 始提供逢低布局机会。中期而言，该行在此前研报中指出，国际秩序重构与我国产业创新趋势共振是推 动本轮市场上涨、中国资产重估的核心驱动力；全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换和资金流动的力量， 或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量。该行认为，这两大条件未发生改变，2026年将继续支持中 国资产表现。 A股今日表现偏弱，上证指数下跌2.5%。2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对 充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市 场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌3.9%、 2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元， ...

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Core Viewpoint - The transition towards "new and old coexisting" for institutional investors is occurring, indicating a shift from "new surpassing old" in 2025 to a balanced allocation in 2026, emphasizing the need to invest in both AI technology and cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Sector Rebalancing - The essence of the "new" is the downward movement of AI technology, transitioning towards the fourth stage of supply-demand gaps, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][3]. - The internal rebalancing within technology indicates a need to avoid simplistic trading strategies based on risk preferences [3]. Group 2: Export and Overseas Business Rebalancing - The "old" aspect reflects a shift in exports and overseas business towards the midstream, with traditional industries stabilizing and growing profits as they move from downstream manufacturing to midstream sectors like engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [1][3]. - The rebalancing in overseas business highlights the increasing profitability and growth potential of midstream manufacturing compared to downstream exports [3][24]. Group 3: Resource Pricing Rebalancing - In 2026, resource pricing may not align with the assumption of a consistently weak dollar, suggesting a potential for a stronger dollar, emphasizing the return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes [1][4]. - The focus on resource pricing indicates that commodities driven by supply-demand fundamentals are more likely to see price increases, making them attractive for continued investment [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Trends - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a clear consensus among institutional investors on AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resources as key investment areas, with these sectors showing significant gains in the A-share market [2][5]. - The increase in FOF products and the rise of passive funds reflect a strong demand for stable, income-generating investment products, while active funds are experiencing a decline [5][41]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q4 2025, institutional investors increased their holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The allocation towards AI technology is showing divergence, with a decrease in holdings for sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings, like CPO, are seeing increased investment [6][10].

点击小程序查看报告原文 A股今日表现偏弱 ， 上证指数下跌2.5%。 2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过 高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌 3.9%、2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量约0.26万亿元。行业层面，食品饮料、银行表现相对韧性，其他 行业普跌，此前连续上行的有色金属板块今日跌幅较大，作为权重板块拖累指数表现。与此同时，今日已收盘的亚太市场整体表现不佳，恒生指数跌 2.2%，日经225跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI跌5.3%。 今日A股出现较大调整，主要来自外部不确定性提升。 包括： 1）下一任美联储主席提名影响美宽松预期。 1月30日美国总统特朗普在社媒宣布，提名美 联储委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席[1]。沃什曾被认为是货币政策偏"鹰派"人物，但近期公开表示倾向于较低的利率，支持采取"缩表+降息"的 组合[2]。与此前其他热门候选人相比，沃什过往的"鹰派"立场削弱了市场 ...

近期，A股央企控股上市公司2025年全年业绩预告密集披露。总体来看，中央企业业绩呈现多层次、立 体化改善的积极态势：一部分企业在优势赛道实现业绩大幅预增；一部分企业成功扭亏为盈，重归健康 发展轨道；还有一部分企业虽仍面临挑战，但通过深刻变革实现了亏损额显著收窄。总体来看，共有 110余家央企控股上市公司2025年业绩"预喜"，其中23家实现归母净利润扭亏为盈、46家企业实现净利 润同比增长、41家企业亏损幅度收窄。从行业来看，军工、钢铁、化工等行业表现亮眼。（上证报） ...