Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of second-hand market prices for the Labubu series after an initial supply-driven price drop [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The third quarter sales data update, Christmas-themed product releases, and new animation releases are expected to act as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is anticipated to enhance stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 432 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of second-hand market prices for the Labubu series after an initial supply-driven price drop [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The third quarter sales data update, Christmas-themed product releases, and the upcoming animation will serve as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is expected to enhance stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 432 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of the second-hand market prices for the Labubu series [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The bank anticipates that upcoming third-quarter sales data updates, the release of Christmas-themed products, and new animated works will act as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is expected to enhance the accuracy of market insights and drive stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Ratings and Price Targets - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, setting a target price of HKD 432 [1] - Following UBS's report, Pop Mart's stock rose nearly 7%, with JPMorgan raising its rating to "Overweight" and increasing its target price to HKD 320 [1]

华泰证券发表报告，预期泡泡玛特第三季业绩增长势头强劲，进入第四季旺季，首批新品销售热度高， 万圣、圣诞主题产品管线储备更加充足，有望驱动第四季销售快速放量，加速全球粉丝破圈。公司对外 联名的层级、规格进一步提升，打造长青IP的资源、平台优势日益壮大。报告指，公司经过前期股价调 整，已基本消化此前对二手价等短期数据波动的担忧，估值具备较高吸引力，继续重点推荐，维持"买 入"评级及396港元的目标价。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing significance of IP (Intellectual Property) in the潮玩 (trendy toys) market, highlighting its appeal to adults and the emotional and cultural value it brings to consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Development of IP潮玩 - IP潮玩 refers to trendy toys with high recognition and independent IP attributes, primarily targeting adults rather than children, focusing on artistic value and collectability [2]. - The潮玩 industry has evolved from its inception in the late 1990s to a mature phase, with significant growth driven by local designers and the rise of blind box formats [3]. Group 2: Industry Chain and Market Size - The IP潮玩 industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream IP sources, midstream IP operation and production, and downstream sales channels, with some companies integrating all aspects for better control [5]. - The Chinese IP潮玩 market is projected to reach approximately 67.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of about 13.8% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027 [6]. Group 3: Key Players and Business Models - 泡泡玛特 has transformed from a retail brand to a leader in IP commercialization, achieving significant growth through innovative product offerings and strategic expansions [9][11]. - 万代南梦宫 has shifted from a toy wholesaler to a global entertainment giant, focusing on maximizing IP value through a multi-media development strategy [14][16]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Over 60% of consumers frequently purchase blind boxes and figurines, with motivations centered around collection and stress relief, indicating a strong emotional connection to specific IPs [30]. - Social media platforms have become the primary source for consumers to obtain information about潮玩, with immersive unboxing videos being the most effective marketing format [33]. Group 5: Global Expansion and Digital潮玩 - The overseas market presents new growth opportunities for Chinese潮玩 brands, with varying challenges in regions like Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia [36]. - Digital潮玩, supported by blockchain technology and the rise of virtual identities, faces both opportunities and challenges, necessitating a balance between innovation and compliance [38].

Group 1 - The price of spot gold has surpassed 4200, but many gold stocks are still priced below 4000, indicating a disconnect between gold prices and related stocks [1] - The September social financing data shows that the M1 and M2 gap continues to narrow, suggesting increased liquidity efficiency, although the speed of residents moving deposits has decreased, indicating weakened motivation for investment or consumption [1] - OpenAI's revenue data reveals that only 5% of its 800 million users are paying customers, with a high cost of acquiring revenue, averaging 3 dollars spent for every 1 dollar earned [1] - Pop Mart's Labubu has increased production capacity tenfold and remains sold out, while the new IP "Star People" is expected to contribute around 8% to sales, leading Morgan Stanley to upgrade its rating from "neutral" to "overweight" [1] Group 2 - LV's financial report indicates that Q3 revenue in the China region has turned positive, suggesting that wealthy consumers are beginning to purchase luxury goods again, which positively impacts consumer stocks [2]

Core Insights - The "潮玩总动员·2025成都文创产业（粤港澳大湾区）合作对接会" successfully took place in Dongguan, attracting over a hundred top潮玩 companies, associations, and investment institutions from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, along with representatives from Chengdu's relevant departments and quality cultural enterprises [1][2] - Chengdu's cultural and creative industry achieved a value-added of 187.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, highlighting its potential as a significant consumer market and creative economy hub [1][2] Group 1 - The event resulted in over 20 signed projects with a total value exceeding 10 billion yuan, covering high-end intelligent manufacturing, IP licensing cooperation, theme park construction, and market channel expansion [3] - Chengdu's advantages in consumer market, creative economy, industrial ecosystem, and business environment were emphasized, making it an attractive destination for Greater Bay Area enterprises [2][3] - The establishment of the Chengdu-Greater Bay Area潮玩 Collaborative Innovation Development Alliance aims to create a collaborative system for the supply chain, focusing on mutual benefits and information sharing [3] Group 2 - Dongguan, as the largest toy export base in China, houses over 4,000 toy companies and 1,500 supporting enterprises, producing approximately 25% of global anime derivatives and 85% of China's潮玩 [2] - The event showcased the strong manufacturing capabilities and innovative momentum of潮玩 giants from the Greater Bay Area, including insights into advanced manufacturing processes and market trends [2][3] - The collaboration between Chengdu's creative resources and the manufacturing strengths of the Greater Bay Area is expected to facilitate a seamless connection from IP incubation to intelligent manufacturing and international marketing [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the fundamentals of Pop Mart have not changed but have instead strengthened, and the market's panic presents an excellent allocation opportunity [1] Group 1: Rating and Price Target Adjustment - On October 15, Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD based on two key factors [2] - The first factor is the continued strength of popular IPs, with Labubu's production capacity increased tenfold compared to Q1, yet Labubu 3.0 and Mini Labubu remain sold out in all regions [2][5] - The new IP "Star People" is rapidly emerging, expected to contribute 8% of sales in 2027 [2][10] Group 2: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The second factor is the significant improvement in valuation, with the stock price down 24% from its August peak while the Hang Seng Index rose 7%, leading to a more attractive risk-reward ratio with a projected 20x P/E for 2026 [3][11] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Pop Mart's success is not reliant on a single IP, showcasing its global layout and strong pricing power to withstand external risks [3] Group 3: Core Engine and Demand Sustainability - Labubu remains the core engine of growth for Pop Mart, with its astonishing popularity supporting the company's expansion [4] - Despite a tenfold increase in Labubu's production capacity, the products remain sold out, dispelling market concerns about sustainable demand [5] Group 4: New IP Development - The new IP "Star People" is proving the company's ability to diversify its IP matrix, with products from the Halloween series selling out within minutes on major online platforms [8] - The secondary market shows a premium of 130% for "Star People," indicating a genuine fan base rather than just a substitute for Labubu [9][10] Group 5: Financial Projections and Growth - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart by 5-7% for 2025-2027, with expected sales and adjusted profits for 2025 growing by 165% and 276% year-on-year, respectively [14][15] - The company is projected to continue strong growth in 2026, with sales and profits expected to grow by 28% and 29% year-on-year [15] Group 6: Global Supply Chain and Trade Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that concerns over global trade friction and tariff risks will have a limited financial impact on Pop Mart [17] - The company has prepared inventory for the 2025 Q4 shopping season to mitigate recent tariff fluctuations and has the ability to raise prices to offset cost increases [18] - Morgan Stanley estimates that a price increase of about 15% would fully offset the impact of tariffs on gross margins in the Americas [19] Group 7: Global Expansion Strategy - To support long-term global expansion, Pop Mart is planning six major manufacturing centers (four in China and two overseas) [20] - Sales contribution from the Americas is expected to rise from approximately 21% in 2025 to 28% in 2027, with overseas business contributing nearly 60% to group earnings by 2027 [21] - The increasing uncertainty of tariffs may accelerate the company's global supply chain layout, fundamentally reducing geopolitical risks [22]

Core Insights - The total scale of the trendy toy industry in China is expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 20% [4] - The "Global Trendy Toy Co-Creation Plan" was launched, aiming to recruit 100 global artists to promote the incubation of original trendy toy IPs and the visualization of content IPs [3] - The company announced significant upgrades to its "Creative Partner Program," opening up 100,000 premium IPs for adaptation into trendy animations [2][3] Group 1: Business Upgrades and Initiatives - The company plans to establish a 100 million yuan special creative fund to support writers and quality teams in developing trendy animations [2][3] - The "Manga Assistant" and other AIGC tools will enhance the efficiency of adapting content into trendy animations [2][5] - The company has signed multiple artists and will launch a series of trendy toy products in the near future [3] Group 2: Market Potential and Collaborations - The company has already seen success with 30 trendy animation works surpassing 10 million views, with some exceeding 100 million views [2] - A partnership with Soy Sauce Animation has resulted in a hit trendy animation that has garnered over 150 million views [2] - The company is actively collaborating with well-known external IPs such as "Honor of Kings" and "Ling Cage" to expand its product offerings [3] Group 3: AI Applications and Content Development - Three AI application upgrades were announced, including "Miao Bi Tong Jian," which provides deep understanding of web literature, and tools for copyright assistance and trendy animation adaptation [5] - The company has achieved significant milestones, with two works breaking 300,000 average subscriptions, setting a new industry record [7] - The company’s IP adaptations have consistently performed well, with eight out of the top ten animated works adapted from its IPs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector has emerged strongly in the market this year, becoming a focal point after a period of stagnation in the consumer sector [1] Group 1: Definition of New Consumption - New consumption is a relative concept that focuses on fulfilling people's spiritual needs, contrasting with traditional consumption that meets material needs [2] - New consumption emphasizes personalization and experience, while traditional consumption prioritizes practicality and product quality [3] Group 2: Segments of New Consumption - The "Guzi Economy" includes merchandise derived from copyrights of comics, animations, games, and idols, with a market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing at 40.6% year-on-year [5][6] - The ready-to-drink tea market is expected to reach 312.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 20.97% compared to the previous year [7] - The pet economy is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and a compound annual growth rate of 9.9% from 2018 to 2024 [7] - The "Guochao Gold" sector integrates elements of Eastern aesthetics and cultural identity, catering to young consumers' desires for individuality and fashion [7] Group 3: Reasons for Popularity of New Consumption - The rise of the Z generation as the main consumer group, coupled with their optimistic outlook on consumption, has driven the popularity of new consumption [8] - Changing consumer psychology emphasizes emotional value and personalization, leading to a preference for unique and resonant experiences [8] Group 4: Performance of New Consumption Sector - The "three stars" of Hong Kong stocks, including brands like "Mao Mart," "Golden Shop," and "Snow Ice City," have seen significant stock price increases of 268.19%, 1144.26%, and 81.38% respectively since their listings, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [8] Group 5: Future Investment Prospects - China's consumer market is vast, with a projected retail sales total of 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing 44.5% to economic growth [14] - Recent policies have been introduced to support the transformation of consumption, including measures to promote new consumption scenarios and high-quality service consumption [14][15] - The export potential of new consumption sectors, such as the pet industry, is significant, with exports to the EU expected to reach 1.12 billion USD in 2024, leading to greater growth opportunities [15]