Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On February 4, 2026, the trading volume and positions of various sectors in the market showed different changes. The trading volume of the stock index, basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, and agricultural product sectors decreased, while the trading volume of the national debt and black building materials sectors increased. The positions of the basic metals, precious metals, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors increased, while the positions of the stock index and national debt sectors decreased [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5][6][8] II. Stock Index Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][18][19] III. National Debt Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the national debt plate [5][24][26] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - Figures present the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5][31][34] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy - chemical plate [5][36][43] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - Figures display the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5][50][52] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - Figures show the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][55][65]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-05原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1. 美国总统特朗普对NBC新闻表示，伊朗最高领袖"应该非常担心"。特朗普发言后，美伊双方官员表示，双方已 同意于周五在阿曼举行会谈。然而双方仍存分歧：美国坚持将伊朗的导弹武器库纳入谈判范围，而伊朗则表示 只愿讨论其核计划。近几日，围绕会谈范围与地点的分歧引发外界质疑谈判能否如期举行，也让特朗普可能付 诸对伊朗动武威胁的可能性仍未排除。 2. 习近平周三同美国总统特朗普通电话。据新华社报道，习近平在通话中告诉特朗普，他愿在新的一年里同特朗 普"多办一些大事、好事"。习近平还强调，台湾问题是中美关系中最重要的问题。美方务必慎重处理对台军售 问题。习近平与普京视频会晤称：中俄要密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作习近平周三同俄罗斯总统普京举 行视频会晤。习近平表示，中俄双方要把握历史契机，密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作，以更深层次的战 略协作和更加积极有为的大国担当，确保中俄关系继续沿着正确轨道不断发展。俄 ...

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatility of the two - level options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread - The implied volatility quantile represents the current level of the implied volatility of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - The volatility spread is related to the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile Data - Implied volatility quantile data is presented for various items such as 500E, 50E, 1000 ta za, 300 index, and rebar [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the stock index was weakly volatile in the morning and rallied significantly in the afternoon, with the Shanghai 50 leading the gains driven by the coal and real estate sectors. The macro news was calm, precious metal prices rebounded, and market sentiment improved. In the short - term, it's necessary to focus on whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After the volume - shrinking rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, in the context of low interest rates and "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and as the economy is in the bottom - building process, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rates and Bond Market - Interest rates: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.32bp increase; DR007 at 1.49% with a 0.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.48% with a 12.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57% with a 3.50bp decrease; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.13bp decrease; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged [3]. - Bond yields: 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30% with a 0.01bp decrease; 5 - year at 1.51% with a 0.25bp decrease; 10 - year at 1.81% with a 0.15bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 1.00bp decrease [3]. - Central bank operations: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 3025 billion yuan. This week, 17615 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - Stock index futures prices: IF当月 closed at 4699 with a 0.9% increase; IH当月 at 3072 with a 1.3% increase; IC当月 at 8321 with a 0.3% increase; IM当月 at 8230 with a 0.2% increase [3][5][10]. - Stock index prices: The CSI 300 rose 0.83% to 4698.7; the SSE 50 rose 1.14% to 3069.2; the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 8299.1; the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 8207.1 [5]. - Trading volume and open interest: IF volume decreased by 21.8%, open interest by 5.6%; IH volume by 17.5%, open interest by 6.9%; IC volume by 18.1%, open interest by 2.9%; IM volume by 11.4%, open interest by 0.5% [5][10]. - Market turnover: The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 623 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Industry performance: Most industry sectors rose. The coal, photovoltaic equipment, airport, glass fiber, mining, and real estate development sectors led the gains, while the precious metal, cultural media, gaming, internet service, and semiconductor sectors led the losses [5]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis: - 0.06% for the current - month contract, 0.90% for the next - month contract, 1.94% for the current - quarter contract, 3.01% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IH basis: - 1.75% for the current - month contract, - 0.69% for the next - month contract, 0.30% for the current - quarter contract, 1.71% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IC basis: - 6.03% for the current - month contract, - 1.45% for the next - month contract, 2.71% for the current - quarter contract, 3.78% for the next - quarter contract [7]. - IM basis: - 6.36% for the current - month contract, 0.38% for the next - month contract, 5.33% for the current - quarter contract, 6.27% for the next - quarter contract [7].

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/4 | 5078. 27 | 89. 65 | 5099. 10 | 89. 45 | 1145.04 | 22937.00 | 1137.83 | 23200.00 | | (本表数 据来源: | 2026/2/ ...

Group 1 - As of December 2025, Guangxi has 42 A-share listed companies and 33 companies listed on the New Third Board, with 4 IPOs under review and 9 companies in the counseling record [1] - In 2025, Guangxi enterprises raised 845.83 billion yuan through direct financing via capital markets, a year-on-year increase of 74.31%, while the total securities trading volume reached 14.27 trillion yuan, up 27.11% year-on-year [1] - The total market value of listed companies in Guangxi increased by 25% compared to the end of the previous year, with 9 listed companies implementing buybacks and repurchases totaling 4.142 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the issuance scale of innovative debt products like Guangxi's technology innovation bonds increased by 164% year-on-year, and the first public REITs product from Guangxi has been submitted to the regulatory authorities [2] - A provincial-level mother fund focusing on artificial intelligence has been registered, with newly registered private funds totaling 10.629 billion yuan, primarily invested in key sectors such as artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles [2] - Guangxi has added 10 new delivery warehouses and 4 delivery brands in 2025, with 55 "insurance + futures" projects launched, ranking first in the country in terms of project initiation [2]

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高套保节后合约 | | ◆玉米： | 谨慎追高，等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is relatively abundant, but some traditional downstream industries are shutting down for the Spring Festival, which exerts a certain downward pressure on the market. However, there is still restocking demand from some downstream sectors, and the current methanol prices in production and sales areas are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales areas. Therefore, inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the port area, the pressure boundary has moved up to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level this week. Overall, the methanol price is expected to show a relatively strong upward - trending fluctuation, with MA2605 operating between 2220 - 2300 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to have low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is loose, and some traditional downstream industries are on holiday, but there is restocking demand. The port market is expected to fluctuate below the 2400 pressure level. The methanol price is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate, with MA2605 in the 2220 - 2300 range [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 682 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main port in China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 268 US dollars/ton; the import cost increased by 6 yuan/ton to 2308 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Fujian changing to varying degrees [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2279 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants remained unchanged at 7082 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis decreased by 19 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, all decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.3.3 Inventory Data - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 993,800 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 30,800 tons to 499,400 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [60]. 3.4.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Maintenance - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the United States and other regions are operating normally or at a low level [61]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which shut down for maintenance on March 15, and some plants have normal operations or are planning future maintenance [62].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 5 日星期四 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 重要事项: 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 多 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral. However, downstream demand is weak, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil trend is strong, driving polyolefins to fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 168, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, OPEC+ suspends production increase, and crude oil drives polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 111, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.6%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is relatively high [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position decreases, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support, neutral industrial inventory, and increased PDH device maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Off - season for downstream demand [8] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6750 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6918 (+53), and the basis is - 168 (-53). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4) [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6690 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6801 (+71), and the basis is - 111 (-71). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]