宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 2026年02月05日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Jiaomei**: With the approaching Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the price fluctuation is small. The market is in a wait - and - see state. The current basis indicates a premium of the spot price over the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long. Considering that some steel mills have slightly limited production and some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. - **Jiaotan**: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing. The current basis indicates a discount of the spot price to the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions. As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Jiaomei** - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of coking coal in the main production areas has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is poor, and the price adjustment is small, with a wait - and - see market attitude [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1230, and the basis is 21, indicating that the spot price has a premium over the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week [2][19][23][28]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long [2][3]. - **Expectation**: Due to some steel mills' limited production and some coking enterprises' completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. **Jiaotan** - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is slightly loose [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 140, indicating that the spot price has a discount to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [6][19][23][28]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions [6][7]. - **Expectation**: As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially over - drawn inventory replenishment demand [9]. **Other Data** - **Washing Plant**: No detailed data analysis provided for washing plant raw coal inventory, refined coal inventory, and refined coal production. - **Coke Oven**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45]. - **Production**: No detailed analysis provided for daily and monthly coke production, blast furnace operating rate, and hot metal production. **Price** - **Imported Coking Coal**: The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on February 4, 2026, including the prices and price changes of different varieties and brands at different ports [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Daily Views on Different Oils - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, but subsequent supply pressure may ease as it enters the production - reduction season. The current export data for Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 282. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2] - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, with a basis of - 64. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. - Main positions: The long positions of the main contract have increased. - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and supply pressure will ease in the production - reduction season. - Basis: The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, with a basis of 837. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - Main positions: The short positions of the main contract have decreased. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 3.2 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also a palm oil tremor season. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically. The domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] 3.3 Supply and Demand Data (Graphs) - **Supply**: There are graphs showing data on import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats from 2015 - 2025 [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - **Demand**: There are graphs showing data on soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption from 2015 - 2025 [13][15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国服务业PMI强劲，ADP就业疲软，金价在5000美元关口震荡；美国三 大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期 美债收益率涨0.8个基点报4.274%；美元指数涨0.25%报97.63，离岸人民币对美元贬 值报6.9411；COMEX黄金期货涨1.04%报4986.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1141.7，现货1137.83，基差-3.87，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单103032 千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k ...

沪锌期货早报-2026年2月5日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24940，基差+55；中性。 3、库存：2月4日LME锌库存较上日减少775吨至108200吨，2月4日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1099吨至29966吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-5 每日观点 玻璃： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，行业存在进一步冷修预期。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位，下游深加工厂订单惨淡，玻璃厂库回升，预期玻璃低位震荡偏弱运行为 主。 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货940元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1109元/吨，基差为-169元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5256. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1760（-10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-27，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），偏多； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期： ...

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/2/5 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1485.59 | 0.00 | 54.61 | 54.61 | -4.56% 高炉开工率 | 85.47 | | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.98% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | 14.90% 铁水日均产量 | 227.98 | | -0.12 | 0.55 | #N/A | | 山东准一干熄 | 1680.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | -3.17% 盘面05 | 1751.5 | 30.50 | 52.00 | 109.50 | 1.13% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 55.00 | -4.23% 盘面09 | 1817 | 32.50 | 47. ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势加剧、资本市场高度波动 | | | | | 的背景下，世界正处在一场"资本战争"的边缘。所谓资本战争，是指通过贸易禁 | | | | | 运、切断资本市场准入，或将债务所有权作为施压工具，将资金"武器化"。 | | | | | 2、马斯克团队近期走访了中国多家光伏企业，考察项目涉及设备、硅片、电池组 | | | | | 件等环节，其中重点考察了有异质结、钙钛矿技术路线的光伏企业。太空光伏是指 | | | | | 在太空轨道、月球等地外环境中，利用太阳能光伏技术获取能源。 | | | | | 3、"木头姐"Cathie Wood 接受专访指出，中国在技术融合方面领先美国，因为中 | | | | | 国公司都在协同合作。美国公司各自为政，被严格划分为不同行业板块。她认为必 | | | | | 须打破行业壁垒，让技术协同 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务费格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年2月5日 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 展新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | F期现价差 | -5.08 | 77.40% | 51.00% | 2.02 | | | | | | | | H期现价去 | 2.56 | 4.14 | 78.60% | 71.10% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | 14.54 | 19.24 | 98.30% | 96,70% | IM期现价差 | -3.72 | 77.53 | 80.00% | 79.40% | | 次月-当月 | -5.20 | -0.60 | 77.4096 | 48.80% | 零月-当月 | -33.80 | -1.20 | 48.30% | 32.60% | 远月-当月 ...