1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - After the short - term boost of geopolitical factors on gold and silver prices, the continuous rise in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran war and the tense situation in the Middle East may be transmitted to inflation indicators such as PPI. Although the US non - farm payroll data in February was disappointing, due to the rising raw material prices, the market expects the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts until September, which will suppress the upward space of precious metal prices in the short term. The recommended operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 20500 - 22000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.89% to 1151.16 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.88% to 21692.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 2.02% to 5181.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 3.06% to 84.70 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 99.45 [2] - The US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, a negative figure again after October 2025, while the market expected an increase of 59,000. The US unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, the highest since December 2025, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.3% [2] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 5181.30 US dollars/ounce, up 1.73%; the trading volume was 148,500 lots, up 1.87%; the open interest was 409,800 lots, down 2.47%; the inventory was 1029 tons, down 0.06% [6] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 5127.55 US dollars/ounce, up 0.46%; the closing price of the active contract was 1140.80 yuan/gram, down 0.97%; the trading volume was 385,900 lots, up 17.88% [6] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 284,700 lots, down 1.95%; the inventory was 105.03 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 5.1973 billion yuan, down 2.90% [6] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 45.71 tons, down 9.96%; the open interest was 236.92 tons, down 2.05% [6] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 84.70 US dollars/ounce, up 2.64%; the open interest was 113,300 lots, down 9.67%; the inventory was 10,860 tons, down 0.63% [6] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 82.34 US dollars/ounce, down 2.23%; the closing price of the active contract was 21,740.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.47%; the trading volume was 942,500 lots, down 20.84% [6] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 497,500 lots, down 1.32%; the inventory was 255.95 tons, down 6.15%; the settled funds were 2.9203 billion yuan, down 0.86% [6] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 311.10 tons, down 27.97%; the open interest was 2941.7 tons, down 0.83% [6] 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The closing price of SPDR US was 473.52 US dollars, up 1.59%; the holding was 1073.32 tons, down 0.24%; the settled funds were 17.6878 billion US dollars, up 0.22%. The holding of iShare US was 494.22 tons, down 0.85%. The holdings of GBS UK, PHAU UK, GOLD UK, and SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged [62] - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price of SLV US was 75.94 US dollars, up 2.25%; the holding was 15,761.62 tons, down 0.30%; the settled funds were 4.1722 billion US dollars, down 2.52%; the trading volume was 4038.93 million shares, down 18.32%. The holding of ETPMAG Australia was 487.41 tons, up 0.26%. The holdings of PSLV Canada and CEF Canada remained unchanged [62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures prices are all bullish, while the medium - term trends are all oscillatory. Each variety has its own unique driving factors and market situations [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory - bullish. The reference view is oscillatory - bullish [5]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean meal market is in a high - volatility stage dominated by external cost drivers and supply - chain risks. Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have raised the cost of imported soybeans, providing a bottom - support for prices. Supply - side rhythm is disrupted due to Brazil's new soybean harvest delays, port congestion, and reduced international shipping efficiency. However, the demand side has weak reality, as high raw - material costs squeeze downstream breeding profits, and feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, which restricts the upside space of prices [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory - bullish. The reference view is oscillatory - bullish [5]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is driven by both tightening fundamentals and enhanced energy attributes. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16% - 20% month - on - month, and the inventory is expected to drop to a four - month low. The Middle - East crisis has pushed up oil prices, strengthening the energy and financial attributes of palm oil. There is a game between weak reality (high prices suppress immediate procurement demand and exports are weak) and strong expectations (concerns about continuous production cuts, high oil prices, and geopolitical risks) [7]. Soybean Oil - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory - bullish. The reference view is oscillatory - bullish [5]. - **Core Logic**: The driving factors include energy attributes, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil - mill inventory, but the specific logic is not elaborated in detail in the given content [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report forecasts the price trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on March 9, 2026, and the trends of continuous contracts in March 2026 [2][6] - The report also summarizes the performance of various futures on March 6, 2026, and provides information on macro - economic policies, international events, and their impacts on the market [24][8] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 9, 2026, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to be weakly volatile. In March 2026, their continuous contracts are also expected to be weakly volatile [2][31] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On March 9, 2026, T2606 and TL2606 are expected to be in a volatile consolidation state [2][52] - **Precious Metal Futures**: On March 9, 2026, AU2604 is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, AG2606 is expected to be weakly volatile, PT2606 and PD2606 are expected to be weakly volatile. In March 2026, the continuous contracts of gold are expected to be widely volatile, while those of silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to be weakly volatile [2][59][67] - **Base Metal Futures**: On March 9, 2026, CU2604 is expected to be weakly volatile, AL2604, AO2605, ZN2604, NI2605, and other contracts are expected to be strongly volatile. In March 2026, the continuous contracts of copper, zinc, nickel, and tin are expected to be weakly volatile, while those of aluminum are expected to be strongly and widely volatile [2][80][88] - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On March 9, 2026, SC2604, FU2604, LU2604, PG2604, and other contracts are expected to be strongly volatile and have a high probability of reaching the daily limit. In March 2026, their continuous contracts are also expected to be strongly volatile and may reach new highs [2][144][149] - **Agricultural Futures**: On March 9, 2026, M2605, Y2605, P2605, and other contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [2][197][200] - **Shipping Futures**: On March 9, 2026, EC2604 is expected to be strongly volatile [2][203] 3.2 Macro - economic Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and maintain sufficient liquidity in the market [8][51] - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the ChiNext, optimize the refinancing mechanism, and improve the stability mechanism of the Chinese - characteristic market [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to set up a national - level merger fund, and the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy [11] 3.3 International Situation - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in oil prices, and the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped. The market is worried about the supply of global energy [16][143] - The US non - farm employment data in February was weak, and the market is worried about the risk of stagflation [17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （3.2-3.6） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，地缘影响燃油随原油同步走高，高硫报收4499元/吨，周涨51.99%，低硫报收5032元 /吨，周涨43.77%。 由于中东冲突升级加剧对亚洲燃料油市场供应收紧的担忧，市场情绪持续推动，亚洲低硫和高硫燃料油 市场结构均表现走强趋势。受西方市场套利船货到港量减少的提振，亚洲低硫燃料油市场预计将在3月走强。 而美以与伊朗之间在中东地区升级的冲突，可能导致该地区的货物运输中断或延误。霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交 通处于停止状态，位于富查伊拉的VTTI石油码头的运营也已暂停。中东局势的快速演变进一步增加了供 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating and stabilizing, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] - For the螺纹 2605 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly strong, with attention on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the steel price oscillating and stabilizing [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the螺纹 2605 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillating", the intraday trend is "oscillating and slightly strong", and the view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, resulting in the steel price oscillating and stabilizing. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes, strength and weakness judgment [2] Market Driving Logic - The spot price remained stable over the weekend with fair market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Rebar production has rebounded as expected and there is room for further increase, and the high inventory level has increased the supply pressure. At the same time, rebar demand has begun to recover, but it is still at a relatively low level, and policy benefits are not beyond expectations, so the subsequent demand improvement space is limited. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have rebounded, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, the fundamentals are still weak, and the steel price will still face downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and warm sentiment [3]

宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 偏强 | 强势 | 强势运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 地缘风险升级，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 9 日星期一 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五夜盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1157.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 3.07%；焦炭主力合 | | | | | 约 J2605 收于 1723.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 1.65%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委秘书长袁达表示，"十五五"是加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的关键 | | | | | 期。在贯彻落实绿色发展理念上，更加突出了低碳要求。一是鲜明提出以碳达峰碳中和 | | | | | 为牵引，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长。二是全面实施碳排放总量和强度双控制。 | | | | | 需要说明的是从能耗双控转向碳排放双控不意味对节能工作的放 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 2.33%. The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [4][5][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Disk Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific content provided in the text - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port is mentioned, but no specific price data is given [11] - **Position Analysis**: Futures seat net position analysis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [12] 3.2 Important Market Information - Last week, due to the Middle East conflict, in the commodity futures market, crude oil and natural gas rose significantly. WTI crude oil rose by 36.18%, and natural gas rose by 11.30%. Most non - ferrous and precious metal prices fell. In the global stock market, Chinese and European and American stock markets all declined, with half of the countries' stock markets falling by more than 5%. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index closed at 98.86, up 1.24%. In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 3.6 billion tons of coking capacity, and 4.7 billion tons of cement clinker capacity have completed ultra - low emission transformation. In late February, key steel enterprises produced 16.22 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 15.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.897 million tons, a 2.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; and 16.89 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.111 million tons, an 11.0% increase in daily output month - on - month [15] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.112 million tons, a decrease of 10.281 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 18.891 million tons, a decrease of 8.744 million tons from the first half of the month [20] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The text mentions 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [24][25] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country is 171.1786 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 259,000 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.1108 million tons, an increase of 126,000 tons; the number of ships at the port is 112, an increase of 5. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country is 178.9483 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,300 tons; the average daily port clearance volume is 3.2698 million tons, an increase of 134,500 tons. Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 77.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.13%; the steel mill profitability rate is 38.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.15%; the average daily hot metal output is 2.2759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 56,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 29,200 tons [29] 3.6 Market Outlook - The iron ore port inventory is high, and the fundamental supply and demand are relatively loose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict on the macro - front, the sharp rise in energy prices has led to strong market expectations of inflation, and the increase in shipping prices may support iron ore in the medium and long term. Overall, the loose fundamentals limit the upside space of iron ore, while inflation expectations limit the downside space. Iron ore will generally fluctuate, and the price center may rise slightly [30] 3.7 Operation Strategies - **Unilateral**: Treat it with a mid - term view of being long on dips and with a bias towards a bullish trend in the range - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 are respectively: short - term and medium - term are in a shock state, and intraday is in a shock - weak state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that short - term positive factors are fermenting, leading to the iron ore price showing a strong shock [2]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Steel mills' environmental protection restrictions are tightening, terminal consumption of ore is falling, and the profitability is poor, so the ore demand continues to be weak. The domestic port arrivals are continuously falling, while miners' shipments remain at a relatively high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. Coupled with the resumption of domestic mine production, the ore supply is gradually increasing. Although the iron ore price has risen due to short - term positive factors such as rising transportation costs and structural contradictions in varieties, the iron ore demand is weakening again and the supply is increasing. The iron ore market fundamentals are weak under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, and the upward driving force is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be concerned [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are "shock", and the intraday trend is "shock - weak". The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that short - term positive factors are fermenting, resulting in the iron ore price showing a strong shock [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is that demand is weak and supply is increasing. The demand is weak because of steel mills' environmental protection restrictions, falling terminal consumption, and poor profitability. The supply is increasing as port arrivals are expected to rise according to the shipping schedule and domestic mine production is resuming. Although there are short - term positive factors supporting the price increase, the overall fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be concerned [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to run with a bullish bias in the short - term and intraday, and maintain a sideways trend in the medium - term [1][5] - The synthetic rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, intraday, and medium - term [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways with a bullish bias, with a reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the prices of crude oil futures at home and abroad have risen significantly, inflation expectations have recovered, the expected liquidity has tightened, and a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Supported by the bullish atmosphere, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a sideways - bullish trend on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [1][5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term**: The short - term and intraday views are strong, and the medium - term view is sideways with a bullish bias, with a reference view of strong operation. The core logic is that due to the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the prices of crude oil futures at home and abroad have risen significantly, the production cost of synthetic rubber has increased. Driven by the transmission logic, the domestic synthetic rubber futures contract 2605 showed a strong operation trend on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain a strong operation pattern on Monday [1][7]