Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined significantly, and coal inventories have increased; egg prices have risen substantially [2] Midstream - The operating rates of PX and PTA have remained stable [3] Downstream - The movie box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic and international flights has slightly decreased [4] Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Minister of Science and Technology introduced that in the field of humanoid robots, breakthroughs have been made in overall machine technology, and progress has been achieved in key technologies such as multi - modal perception and brain - cerebellum models, promoting the in - depth integration with embodied intelligence and accelerating the application of humanoid robots in scenarios such as automobile manufacturing, logistics handling, and power inspection [1] Service Industry - The National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Administrative Specifications for the Child - Rearing Subsidy System (Trial)", streamlining the application and review processes, clarifying eligibility, optimizing the application procedures, and emphasizing the role of big - data review [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/18 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2287.1 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | | Spot price: Egg | 8.0 yuan/kg | 9.89% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9366.0 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 15329.5 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 19.6 yuan/kg | - 1.91% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 80043.3 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22006.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 20906.7 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 123016.7 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17062.5 yuan/ton | 1.26% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 3141.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3342.5 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14850.0 yuan/ton | - 1.38% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 793.3 | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 63.7 dollars/barrel | 0.05% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 67.5 dollars/barrel | - 0.04% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 3854.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Coal price: Coal | 781.0 yuan/ton | 0.51% | | | Spot price: PTA | 4644.0 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | Chemical Industry | Spot price: Polyethylene | 7396.7 yuan/ton | 0.07% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1672.5 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Cement price index: National | 131.5 | 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | 114.0 points | 0.89% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 91.8 points | - 0.62% | [38]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton is expected to improve. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, due to the good growth of new cotton, there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year, and there is a risk of price decline if the peak season demand is not met. In the long term, the cotton price center is expected to gradually rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: The acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere after the rainy season suppress the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar market is affected by poor sales in August and concerns about syrup policy relaxation, and the import profit of out - of - quota sugar is high. The Indian government's decision to export sugar in the new season will also put downward pressure on global sugar prices [3][4][5] - **Pulp**: Overseas pulp mills have production cut news, but the supply pattern has not changed significantly. In China, there is a large amount of pulp production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand at home and abroad is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (- 0.90%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a 40.0% increase from the previous month and a 51.6% decrease from the same period last year. As of September 11, the US net signed 42,207 tons of upland cotton this year, and China signed 998 tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: The international cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is limited. In China, the short - term cotton price has strong support, but there is a risk of decline during the new cotton listing period. In the long term, the cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish, long - term optimistic [3] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 0.99%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. India plans to start the sugar export program in the new season, with an expected production of 34.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price is suppressed by the increase in production in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere, and the domestic sugar price is affected by poor sales and policy concerns. The Indian export decision will put downward pressure on global sugar prices [3][4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The short - term domestic driving force is still downward, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline. Treat it with the idea of shock - bottoming and waiting for a rebound [5] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,014 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,625 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price showed a mixed trend [5][6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure of pulp still exists, and the demand at home and abroad is weak. The industry profit is shrinking, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal orders in the peak season [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Rebounding [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Downward [3] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [6] - Meal products: Oscillating with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day holiday, trading focus will gradually shift to the real situation. The short-term sentiment in the iron ore market has been boosted, and the supply of iron ore has returned. The fundamentals of iron ore in the short term have limited contradictions [2]. - The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed [2]. - The rise of glass futures is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the warming of macro sentiment. The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [3]. - The supply pressure of logs is generally not large, and the daily average shipment volume has slightly increased. It is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - The price of pulp is expected to consolidate at the bottom. The double-offset paper industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand [6]. - After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Meal products are expected to continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices [7]. - The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume has increased, and the supply has returned. The daily average pig iron output has slightly rebounded and remained at a high level, driving up the demand for iron ore. The short-term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether the iron ore 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - **Coal and coke**: The news of coal mine shutdowns and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly pushed up the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and the demand for double-coke has rebounded [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected. The production of finished steel products has slightly declined, but the supply remains at a relatively high level. The total demand is difficult to show an inverse seasonal performance, and a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The short-term rebar 2601 contract will oscillate with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the inventory performance of rebar [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock market has generally declined. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors vary. It is recommended to control risk appetite and reduce long positions in stock indices [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The market interest rate fluctuates, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain high-level oscillations [3]. Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has slightly increased, and the supply pressure is generally not large. The inventory has rebounded to around the key threshold of 3 million cubic meters. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that logs will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has mainly declined. The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. It is expected that the pulp price will consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double-offset paper**: The spot market price of double-offset paper is running steadily. The industry is in a stage of overcapacity, with stable short-term supply and poor demand. The overall situation is bearish, and opportunities to short on rebounds should be sought [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: After a previous sharp rise, edible oils may oscillate in a wide range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meal products**: The new crop yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. It is expected that meal products will continue oscillating with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has continued to rise slightly. The开工 rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased slightly, and the supply of large pigs has increased, which may put some pressure on prices. It is expected that the price of standard pigs may decline slightly under pressure, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [7]. Soft Commodities - **Natural rubber**: The supply pressure of natural rubber has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. The price of natural rubber may oscillate in a wide range [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have both increased, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The short-term prices will mainly fluctuate with costs. The inventory of MEG is expected to remain at a low level, and the market of polyester bottle chips is expected to continue oscillating and consolidating [10].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落，A 股放量 下跌 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-19 报 USDA 出口销售报告符合预期，美国生物燃料政策仍有不确定 性。国内豆粕表现疲弱，主要因市场交易中美可能达成涉及中 国采购美豆的协议。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落至 23.1 万 特朗普政府继续寻求罢免美联储理事，这意味着美联储政治化 的进一步上升，美元短期走势震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 商务部回应关于 tiktok 相关问题 综 A 股市场迎来放量大跌，权重股回调明显，监管方面有为市场降 温的考量。在政策转向的时刻，我们认为应降低多头敞口，减 小回撤。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 CONAB 预计巴西 25/26 年度大豆产量继续增加 有色金属（工业硅） 合盛硅业：部分股份质押及解质押公告 短期工业硅价格或在 8200-9200 元/吨运行，关注逢低做多机会。 能源化工（纯碱） 本周四纯碱厂家库存较周一小幅增加 今日纯碱期价有所下跌，主要是商品市场情绪整体转弱。国内 纯碱现货市场趋稳震荡，无明显波动。本周四纯碱厂家库存较 周一小幅增加。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of high-standard farmland is a key initiative for promoting high-quality agricultural development in China, focusing on transforming traditional farmland into modern production systems to achieve high yield, cost reduction, and sustainable goals [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in High-Standard Farmland Construction - Significant progress has been made in high-standard farmland construction, with over 1 billion acres built by July this year, accounting for over 53% of the total arable land area [1]. - This achievement not only represents a quantitative breakthrough but also a qualitative leap, supporting the national grain production stability at over 1.3 trillion jin for several consecutive years [1]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - High-standard farmland construction is crucial for national food security and long-term agricultural development, requiring continuous efforts to strengthen the agricultural foundation [1]. - The initiative has been included in the central government's No. 1 document for over a decade, highlighting its importance [1]. Group 3: Multi-faceted Approach to Promote Construction - The strategy involves a dual drive of "technological innovation + ecological protection" to enhance green production capacity [2]. - Digital technology is being integrated to create a smart management loop, ensuring data-driven decision-making and traceable supervision [2]. - A diversified investment mechanism is being established to enhance funding efficiency, attracting social capital participation [2]. - Regional strategies are being implemented to ensure ecological safety while enhancing production capacity [2].

Core Insights - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ireland's exports to surrounding countries have surged, raising concerns about the circumvention of sanctions through these nations [1] - By the end of 2024, Ireland's exports to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are projected to reach nearly €216.5 million, an increase of approximately €95 million compared to 2021 [1] - The EU has identified these countries as having a risk of sanction evasion, and pressure has been applied by the EU, UK, and US on nations accused of facilitating parallel imports to Russia [1] Export Growth - The largest increase in exports from Ireland to these countries has been in essential oils and perfume materials, which surged by 63% to over €95 million [1] - Significant growth has also been observed in the export of metal ores, chemical materials, road vehicles, and machinery [1] - Since the end of 2021, exports to Kazakhstan have risen by 13%, reaching nearly €79.5 million, with key products including essential oils, chemical materials, and fruits and vegetables [1] Sanction Considerations - Recent reports indicate that the EU is contemplating imposing sanctions on Kazakhstan due to its export of raw materials used in weapon production to Russia [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the technology sector is to meet the people's aspiration for a better life, with systematic layouts and breakthroughs achieved during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Key tasks include biological breeding and agricultural machinery equipment, leading to the development of major crop varieties such as wheat, corn, and rice, as well as high-end agricultural power equipment [4] - The deployment of transportation equipment includes critical technologies for the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, with CR450 trains capable of operating at speeds up to 400 km/h, and the C919 aircraft moving towards regular commercial operations [6] Group 2 - The technology sector is also focusing on high-end and emergency medical equipment, as well as new drug development [7] - The development of the world's first 5.0T medical equipment has been achieved [8]

Steel Industry - The supply-demand contradiction in the steel market is strengthening, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand is gradually recovering as the peak season approaches, with high demand for plate steel and a low recovery in rebar demand. On the supply side, steel mills are facing narrowing profits, leading to a decrease in overall supply. Plate steel supply remains high, while rebar production has significantly decreased, alleviating supply pressure. Overall, with the arrival of the peak demand season and stricter implementation of industrial policies, the supply-demand contradiction and cost support for steel are expected to gradually strengthen. Short-term steel prices are anticipated to continue a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Iron Ore - The expectations for supply and demand are improving, enhancing price support for iron ore. Steel mills are gradually resuming production, leading to a recovery in iron ore demand. On the supply side, overseas mine shipments have significantly increased, resulting in a moderate growth in overall supply. Iron ore inventories are stabilizing at low levels, indicating minimal inventory pressure. Overall, with the continuous warming of macro policy expectations and the recovery of downstream demand, the outlook for iron ore supply and demand is expected to continue improving, with prices likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating increases [1][2]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased by 1.9% to 84.7%, with daily raw coal output reaching 1.9 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 44,000 tons. The demand side shows strong rigid support, driven by increased washing plant operating rates and a rebound in iron water production. However, the market is still focused on "anti-involution," and the space for further increases in coal mine operating rates is limited due to strong safety supervision policies. Overall, the coking coal supply-demand structure may be optimized, maintaining a trend of fluctuating strength [2]. Shipping Industry - The European shipping index is currently showing a weak trend. On the spot market, major shipping companies are continuously lowering their quotes, with the average price for a large container around $1,650, indicating a slight discount to the market. The supply-demand imbalance is prominent, with demand entering a low season and a lack of new shipping volume. The average weekly capacity in September has increased by 16% year-on-year, but the scale of empty classes in October is not sufficient to alleviate the oversupply situation. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the index is expected to continue running weakly in the short term [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures prices have continued to decline. Domestic methanol capacity utilization and output have unexpectedly decreased this week. However, the operating rates of traditional demand products have mostly increased, with significant recoveries in DME and MTBE. The market is expected to maintain a trend of inventory reduction due to pre-holiday stocking and upstream companies actively reducing inventory to avoid accumulation risks during the holiday. Overall, the methanol market is expected to continue a downward trend in the short term, with some support from supply-side reductions and recovering downstream operating rates [4]. Urea - Urea prices have shown a downward trend this week, with capacity utilization and weekly output increasing. The upcoming recovery in production is expected to exceed maintenance, leading to a significant increase in daily output. However, domestic urea demand remains tepid, and the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with companies facing challenges related to inventory and costs. Without policy changes, urea futures prices are likely to continue fluctuating downward in the short term [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Soda ash and glass prices are experiencing a downward trend. The overall supply of soda ash is decreasing slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.53%. The weekly output has dropped by 1.54 million tons. The glass market is stable, but demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual decline in production and sales. The overall supply pressure for soda ash remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly [5]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are showing a weak trend, influenced by the end of the traditional fuel consumption season in the U.S. and ongoing OPEC+ production increases. However, the inventory of asphalt plants and social stocks continues to decline, which may positively impact prices. The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to drive demand, particularly in northern regions, while southern regions face supply pressures [6][7]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are experiencing a downward trend, with average capacity utilization at 81.9%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased, and demand from downstream aluminum oxide enterprises remains stable. Overall, the caustic soda market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly due to increased supply and limited demand [8]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are declining, with limited demand from downstream sectors. Despite some replenishment activities, the overall purchasing momentum remains insufficient. The supply side is increasing due to more operational facilities, leading to a rise in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward [9]. Polyester - The polyester market is stable, with supply and demand remaining balanced. The operating rates of PTA and downstream polyester production have increased slightly, but overall demand remains below expectations. The inventory levels of PTA are at historical lows, indicating a tight supply situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost movements [10][11]. Nonferrous Metals - The copper market is influenced by the recent Fed rate cut, with domestic supply tightening due to maintenance at smelting plants. The market is closely monitoring consumption patterns leading up to the National Day holiday, with expectations of increased purchasing from large enterprises [14]. Agricultural Products - The oilseed market is under pressure due to high domestic soybean inventories and slow demand recovery. The cotton market is experiencing price pressure from low demand and high import levels, while the sugar market is facing downward pressure from increased production in India and Brazil [18][19]. Rubber - The rubber market is experiencing a weak trend, with increased imports and stable production levels. The demand from processing plants remains strong, but overall market sentiment is affected by macroeconomic factors [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The China-ASEAN Agricultural and Poverty Alleviation Cooperation Conference aims to enhance regional agricultural cooperation and poverty alleviation through dialogue and collaboration among various stakeholders [1][3]. Group 1: Conference Objectives and Themes - The conference focuses on "Smart Agriculture and Poverty Alleviation Cooperation, Hand in Hand to Develop New Quality Productivity" [3]. - Representatives from China, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, and other countries, along with experts and business representatives, engage in discussions on smart agricultural technology innovation, poverty alleviation models, resource optimization, and the development of new quality productivity [3]. Group 2: Achievements and Future Directions - Agricultural cooperation between Guangxi and ASEAN countries has a long history, with recent years seeing an expansion in cooperation areas and methods, resulting in significant achievements [3]. - The total import and export volume of agricultural products between Guangxi and ASEAN countries is projected to reach 30.29 billion yuan in 2024, a 56.5% increase compared to 2018 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Guangxi is leveraging national artificial intelligence initiatives to build a development path that integrates research and development from major cities with applications in ASEAN, aiming to enhance agricultural trade and investment [3]. - The conference advocates for a new framework for smart agricultural cooperation and the establishment of a digital technology collaborative innovation system [5]. Group 4: Key Collaborations and Projects - Four significant cooperation projects were established, including cross-border animal disease prevention and smart agriculture technology collaboration with Laos [5]. - Guangxi Agricultural Vocational and Technical University signed a cooperation agreement with relevant enterprises in Laos to promote various aspects of agricultural technology and education [5]. Group 5: Exhibition and Promotion - The conference featured the first "AI + Agriculture" exhibition area, showcasing advanced technologies such as smart agricultural machinery and agricultural big data platforms [5]. - Over 100 agricultural enterprises from Guangxi participated in the exhibition, promoting local specialty products like Liubao tea and dragon fruit, thereby expanding cooperation in agricultural technology and trade with ASEAN [5].