Core Viewpoint - The recent judicial freeze of 32.2 million shares held by the second-largest shareholder of Zhuangyuan Dairy, Ma Hongfu, has raised concerns about the company's governance and financial stability, as it represents 16.47% of the total share capital [2][3][6]. Shareholder Situation - Ma Hongfu's shares were frozen due to a personal arbitration matter involving a debt of 21.27 million yuan, leading to a significant impact on his ability to manage his stake in the company [2][3]. - The freeze includes 32.2 million shares that were already pledged, compounding the challenges for Ma Hongfu in managing his equity [3][6]. - The freeze is set to last for three years, from July 2, 2025, to July 1, 2028, which could limit his influence over company decisions [3][4]. Company Governance - The company has attempted to downplay the impact of the share freeze, asserting that Ma Hongfu is not the controlling shareholder and that it will not affect operational stability [6][8]. - However, the freeze on a significant stake held by a founding member raises questions about governance stability and potential impacts on shareholder rights and decision-making processes [8][6]. Financial Performance - Zhuangyuan Dairy has faced declining financial performance, with net profits falling from 50.48 million yuan in 2021 to a loss of 105 million yuan in 2023, leading to a cash compensation obligation of 20.31 million yuan for Ma Hongfu [11][18]. - The company's operational costs exceeded revenues, with a cost-to-revenue ratio of 101.57% in 2023, worsening to 113.56% in the first three quarters of 2024 [19][21]. Market Position - The company has seen a decline in revenue across its core markets, with significant drops in sales in Gansu and Shaanxi provinces, indicating a loss of market share [19][20]. - Despite increased marketing expenditures, the company has not achieved growth, leading to further financial strain [21].

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250708 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月08日 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.商保目录将推出，新药上市在加快————医药生物行业周报（2025/06/30- 2025/07/04） ➢ 2.重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） ➢ 3.旷达科技（002516）：汽车内饰主业稳健增长，2024年员工持股首批解锁落地——公司 简评报告 ➢ 4.国产GPU新秀IPO获受理，EDA对华禁令解封——电子行业周报2025/6/30 ...

图源：世研大消费指数 乳制品以靶向性技术破壁健康痛点，颗粒化场景营销重构消费价值 从品牌分布来看，乳制品集群本月以"技术驱动健康升级"与"场景精准渗透"双轨并进，重构春季消费价 值。 季节更迭催生免疫力需求高峰，伊利畅轻借势推广含专利菌株产品，以尖端益生菌科技直击肠道 健康痛点；蒙牛与金典则聚焦乳品本源技术突破——前者以富含乳铁蛋白的鲜奶强化免疫属性，后者凭 借有机A2β-酪蛋白牛奶精准化解乳糖不耐人群的饮用障碍，将生物科技转化为可感知的消费解决方 案。 场景化创新层面，安慕希联名其他品牌推广便携装，将酸奶从餐桌延伸至春游场景，通过产品形态革新 绑定户外轻享时刻。 其他品牌差异化竞争路径同样清晰：金典在高端赛道深化信任壁垒，直播间实时展示有机牧场溯源过 程，使"有机"概念可视化、可验证；德运则作为进口品牌代表，以行业头部奶粉配方切入健康升级赛 道，在传统奶粉品类中拓展脱脂新战场。五大品牌共同印证乳品行业趋势——健康诉求正从泛化概念向 靶向性技术解决方案跃迁，而消费场景的精细化切割正成为品牌增长的核心引擎。 生鲜以保鲜技术供应链迭代重构信任链，场景显性化激活即时消费 本次监测周期内，伊利、怡颗莓和三只松鼠分别以 ...

Group 1 - HSBC Global Research has lowered the target price for China Feihe (06186.HK) to HKD 4.9 and maintained a "Hold" rating [1] - The company issued a profit warning for its interim results, expecting a year-on-year net profit decline of 36% to 46% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is now expected to remain flat year-on-year, a revision from a previous forecast of a 9% increase, with net profit estimates for 2025 down by 31% [1] Group 2 - The total dividend payout forecast has been reduced by 34% to RMB 2 billion [1]

2025 年 7 月 8 日 星期二 每日大市点评 7 月 7 日，港股延续震荡格局，恒生指数微跌 0.1%，收报 23,887 点；恒生科技指数逆势上涨 0.3%，收报 5,229 点，市场 尾盘上演探底回升行情。值得关注的是，南下资金尾盘快速加仓扫货，净流入 120 亿港元，创近两月单日峰值。盘面上板 块分化明显，政策敏感型领域表现强势，内房股受住建部表态"更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"的提振明显。茶饮 股集体爆发，茶百道（2555 HK）单日飙升 11%，奈雪的茶（2150 HK）也涨近 4%，印证高温消费与外卖补贴政策对即饮赛 道的催化效应。博彩板块延续上涨行情，金沙（1928 HK）、美高梅中国（2282 HK）分别上涨 3.9%、2.4%。6 月澳门博彩 收入同比上升 19.0%至 210.6 亿澳门元，远超预期及季节性表现，演唱会及部分新酒店的贡献显著。反观压力端，昨日互 联网巨头表现分化，美团（3690 HK）下跌 1.5%，市场对外卖补贴战侵蚀盈利的担忧加剧，而快手（2015 HK）、腾讯 （700 HK）涨超 1%。乳制品、黄金及生物医药板块则集体回调，部分资金或在政策窗口期前获利了结。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Feihe has reported a decline in performance, with projected revenue for the first half of 2025 between approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period last year. Net profit is expected to be between approximately 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, compared to about 1.9 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Group 1: Performance and Financials - Feihe's revenue and net profit are expected to decline significantly in 2025, attributed to factors such as providing fertility subsidies, reducing channel inventory for infant formula, decreased government subsidies, and impairment provisions for whole milk powder products [2] - The company announced a special subsidy of 1.2 billion yuan starting from April 2025, aimed at eligible families, which has impacted revenue and led to product flows into second-hand markets [3] - Despite the decline, Feihe remains optimistic about achieving low single-digit growth for the full year and plans to utilize no less than 1 billion yuan for share buybacks while maintaining a stable dividend policy, expecting to distribute no less than 2 billion yuan in dividends for 2025 [7] Group 2: Market Competition - The infant formula market is experiencing increased competition, with Nielsen IQ data indicating a 2.3% year-on-year growth in the infant formula sector from January to April 2025, while offline sales have decreased by 1.4% [4] - Foreign brands have gained an advantage in the ultra-premium segment, with brands like Aptamil, Friso, and Wyeth experiencing growth in 2024 [5] - Despite the competitive landscape, Feihe continues to hold the top market share in the infant formula sector [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment appears to be challenging, with Feihe's stock price dropping by 17.02% to 4.73 HKD per share on July 7 [9] - In comparison, the Shanghai Consumer 80 Index fell by 0.61% on the same day, indicating a broader market trend [10]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, leading dairy companies Yili and Mengniu have both conducted significant share buybacks, with amounts exceeding 1.5 billion RMB each. The overall dairy industry is facing pressure due to oversupply and weakened demand, leading to declining profits for more than half of the companies in 2024 [1][10]. Industry Summary - The dairy industry in China has 28 listed companies in A and H shares, with over half experiencing a decline in both revenue and net profit in 2024 due to market conditions [1]. - In 2024, the top three dairy companies by revenue were Yili, Mengniu, and Bright Dairy, with total revenues of 1157.8 billion RMB, 886.75 billion RMB, and 242.78 billion RMB respectively, all showing a decline of over 8% year-on-year [4][6]. - The revenue of Yili decreased by 8.24% due to reduced sales volume and lower prices, while Mengniu's revenue fell by 10.1%, with its liquid milk segment dropping by 10.97% [4][8]. Company Performance - In 2024, nine dairy companies reported losses, accounting for over 30% of the sector, with Modern Dairy leading with a loss of 1.417 billion RMB. Modern Dairy also issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of between 800 million to 1 billion RMB for the first half of 2025 [7]. - Among the 19 listed dairy companies, over 60% saw a decline in revenue in 2024, with 15 companies experiencing a drop in both revenue and profit [8]. - Bright Dairy's total revenue decreased by 8.33% to 242.78 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 25.36% to 72.2 million RMB in 2024 [8]. Growth and Recovery - Seven dairy companies, including China Feihe, Beingmate, and Ausnutria, reported year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit in 2024, indicating pockets of resilience within the sector [2][9]. - Beingmate achieved a revenue of 2.773 billion RMB in 2024, marking a growth of 9.7%, and a net profit increase of 116.92% [9]. Share Buyback Activities - Mengniu announced a share buyback plan worth up to 2 billion HKD, with 28.824 million shares repurchased at a cost of 454 million HKD as of July 2, 2025 [10][12]. - Yili completed a share buyback of approximately 40.54 million shares, representing 0.6368% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 1.007 billion RMB [13][14]. - Beingmate also disclosed a share buyback plan with a budget of 150 million to 300 million RMB, although no shares had been repurchased as of June 30, 2025 [15].

美股维持跌势，纳指跌0.45%。据彭博报道，知情官员透露，印度已向美国提出其在贸易问题上的最佳 方案，能否达成临时协议，目前掌握在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的手中。新德里已向特朗普政府表明了 在达成协议过程中不会逾越的底线，其中包括不允许美国向印度出口转基因农作物，以及不会向美国开 放印度的乳制品和汽车市场。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

Fixed Income - The overall credit spread across various industries has compressed, with the AA agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experiencing a significant reduction of 9 basis points [2][9] - The issuance rates for AA-rated industrial bonds and AAA-rated financial bonds have decreased significantly, while the issuance rate for AA-rated urban investment bonds has increased [7] - The market is optimistic about credit bonds yielding over 2%, suggesting investors should consider extending duration and exploring opportunities in the newly approved science and technology innovation bond ETFs [10] Maternal and Infant Industry - Recent government policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, such as childcare subsidies and housing benefits, are expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry [12] - The maternal and infant consumption market in China is projected to reach 762.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth trend from 2018 to 2024 [12] - The market for maternal and infant chain stores is growing, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% expected from 2019 to 2024, indicating significant room for growth in lower-tier cities [12][13] Transportation Industry - The Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, particularly TikTok Shop, has shown substantial growth, benefiting logistics companies in the region [16][17] - The civil aviation sector is entering a peak travel season, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 21.01 million in the first month of the summer travel period [19] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles by companies like Shentong and JD Logistics is expected to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs significantly [18][29] Deep Sea Economy - The deep-sea economy is gaining attention, with the national marine production value projected to reach 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 5.9% [34] - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an expected increase in value added from 1,032 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,126 billion yuan in 2025 [34] - There are 11 companies listed on the North Exchange involved in the deep-sea economy, indicating a growing interest in this sector [34][35] AI Applications - The AI companionship product "EVE" has begun testing, highlighting the advancement of AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce, gaming, and education [12] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are continuously iterating on foundational technologies and products, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [12] Shipping and Logistics - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from OPEC+'s production increase, which may enhance the demand for oil transportation [23][31] - The logistics sector is seeing a shift towards more efficient operations, with companies like Shenzhen International and DeBang Logistics poised for growth due to strategic transformations [30] - The overall shipping market is recovering, with environmental regulations driving the retirement of older vessels, thus improving market conditions [31][32]