Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjustment may have some short - term repair due to emerging positives, but in the long run, the probability of interest rates breaking through the lows is small, and the interest rate center is expected to fluctuate and rise [2][8]. - The bond market short - term adjustment is in place, with possible over - decline repair, but the downward amplitude may be limited, and heavy - position participation is not recommended. Strategies suggest being cautious in duration, reducing annual return expectations, and seizing short - term trading opportunities [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Adjustment Situation - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of equities and commodities, and the yield of each maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 6.72BP to 1.73% compared with July 18, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 1.97%, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening [5]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market Funding Aspect - The central bank began large - scale injections at the end of the month, showing an obvious attitude of care. On Thursday, the suddenly tightened funding became the "last straw" for the bond market, but on Friday, the central bank's operations led to a rapid shift to a loose funding situation, with a net injection of 8018 billion yuan [2][8]. Asset - Liability Aspect - The reduction of the insurance预定利率 is a short - term positive for the bond market, but it also has two - sided effects. It may lead to a reduction in the adjustment range of the bond market, but it may also cause a loss of insurance liability - side funds [2][10]. Institutional Behavior Aspect - Insurance has changed from a stable configuration strategy to a trading mindset. The weekly average net purchase scale in July decreased to 44.8 billion yuan, lower than that from February to March [2][15]. - During the bond market's weak adjustment this week, the main selling forces were funds and securities companies, while rural commercial banks increased their positions. Funds further reduced their duration, and the 10 - day average of the net purchase duration of funds has dropped to a relatively low historical quantile level [16]. Key Psychological Point and Technical Analysis - 1.75% is a key psychological point in the market, and the probability of a short - term rapid break to 1.80% is low [22]. - Technically, the bearish force has increased marginally, but short - term technical indicators show over - decline rebound signals. There may be over - decline trading opportunities next week, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level [23]. Long - Term Impact of Re - inflation Trading - The re - inflation trading caused by anti - involution is still in the initial stage, so its impact on the bond market is limited [24][27].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market is driven by a strong rebound in commodity prices, which has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a corresponding increase in stock prices [3][7]. - The current commodity price rebound is characterized as a "lagging pricing" response to the previous mild expansion of the credit cycle, rather than the start of a new macroeconomic cycle [4][10]. - The report suggests that the market environment in the second half of the year may resemble that of 2019 and 2022, with a mild expansion of the credit cycle followed by a potential decline in social financing momentum [5][25]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the recent commodity price increases are more of a "catch-up" effect due to previous underpricing in relation to the credit cycle recovery, rather than an indication of a new macroeconomic expansion [11][18]. - It is noted that the leading commodities in the recent price surge were those that had previously underperformed, indicating a tendency towards "oversold recovery" [14][17]. - The analysis highlights that the current credit cycle is nearing its peak, and any adjustments in the bond market are expected to be less severe than those observed in the first half of the year [6][30].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shandong Branch is actively promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds to support the financing needs of technology enterprises and enhance the province's financial ecosystem for innovation [1][4]. Group 1: Technology Innovation Bonds - As of now, 17 enterprises and institutions have successfully issued technology innovation bonds totaling 22.7 billion yuan in the interbank market, positioning Shandong among the top provinces in terms of issuance scale [1][5]. - The technology innovation bonds cover a wide range of issuers, including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, equity investment institutions, and financial institutions, thereby supporting various sectors such as electronic information, new energy, new materials, high-end chemicals, and biomedicine [5][6]. - The bonds feature long maturities and low interest rates, with some institutions issuing bonds with terms of 5 to 10 years and a minimum issuance interest rate of 1.63%, while the weighted average interest rate is only 2% [5][6]. Group 2: Innovative Measures and Support - The issuance of technology innovation bonds includes several innovative aspects, such as flexible issuance methods, diverse funding uses, and rich credit enhancement measures to better match the financing needs of technology enterprises [4][6]. - The People's Bank has established risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to support private enterprises and equity investment institutions, aiming to reduce issuance costs and improve success rates [4][6]. - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the promotion of technology innovation bonds, exploring better mechanisms for central-local credit enhancement, and striving for more entities to issue these bonds to optimize the innovation ecosystem in Shandong [6].

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Japanese government bonds decreased by 990.7 billion yen for the week ending July 18, compared to an increase of 170.4 billion yen in the previous period [1]

美国总统特朗普不可预测的政策举措正推动投资者对亚洲本币债券的需求，激发对该地区的新兴趣。 根据彭博汇编的数据，2025年迄今，亚太地区的企业和非主权发行人已发行约1.5万亿美元以该地区货 币计价的债券，增幅达6%，创下同期最高纪录。第二季度的发行量创下最高季度纪录。 "我们确实看到亚洲本币债券的买家比4月之前增多，" Grasshopper Asset Management投资组合经理 Daniel Tan表示："大量资金流入来自养老基金和主权财富基金，寻求分散投资于美元资产以外的领 域。" 特朗普4月2日宣布对盟友和竞争对手加征关税令市场大跌眼镜，然而仅几天后，由于股市下跌、债券收 益率飙升，特朗普又暂缓了相关决定，亚洲本币债券的发行势头自那之后就增强。尽管风险资产反弹， 但信用债投资者一直在通过转向风险敞口较小的地区来对冲关税相关波动和美元走弱的影响。 这种转变反映在业绩上：追踪多种本币债券的一个彭博亚太综合指数今年已上涨3.9%，超过美国同类 指数3.5%的回报。 "向更广泛的亚洲本币市场多元化投资的进程可能会加速。" Fullerton Fund Management驻新加坡副首席 投资官兼固定收益主 ...

Core Insights - The Panda Bond market has rapidly expanded, with cumulative issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone in China's bond market's internationalization [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Expansion - The cumulative issuance of Panda Bonds reached 10,888.90 million yuan as of July 22, 2025, with 654 bonds issued [2] - The market has experienced two phases: a slow initial phase from 2005 to 2015, followed by rapid growth from 2016 onwards, with annual issuance exceeding 1,000 million yuan in recent years [2][4] - In 2023, multiple entities, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Bayer, issued 1,085 million yuan in bonds, with expectations to approach 2,000 million yuan for the year [4] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Environment - Recent regulatory improvements have simplified Panda Bond issuance rules, enhancing the attractiveness for foreign institutions [1][4] - The People's Bank of China expanded the use of Panda Bond proceeds at the end of 2022, and in 2023, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association introduced measures to optimize the issuance process [4][5] Group 3: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - The average issuance interest rate for Panda Bonds has significantly decreased, with the proportion of bonds issued at rates below 2.5% rising from 67.89% in 2024 to 89.58% in 2025 [5] - The low interest rate environment in China has provided a financing cost advantage for foreign issuers, attracting more international entities to issue Panda Bonds [5][6] Group 4: Issuer Structure and Diversity - The issuer structure of Panda Bonds has diversified, now including international development institutions, foreign sovereign governments, financial institutions, and non-financial enterprises across five continents [6][7] - The proportion of bonds issued by international development institutions and multinational corporations increased by 23 percentage points year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Panda Bond market is expected to continue expanding, driven by the ongoing internationalization of the yuan and favorable financing conditions [8] - Innovations in bond types, including those related to sustainable development, are anticipated to increase, further enriching the Panda Bond market [8]

近期，A股市场持续走强，上证指数连续多日站稳3500点关键心理关口，并在7月23日突破了3600点关口，而债市却因"股债跷跷板"效应遭遇显 著调整。 7月以来，国债期货各品种持续走弱，信用债市场波动有所加剧，多家基金公司紧急调整债基净值精度以应对赎回压力，市场情绪趋于谨慎。 债市接连调整 7月23日，在A股市场突破3600点关口之际，债市再次出现回调走势。 截至发稿，30年期国债期货跌0.44%，报118.99元。自7月初以来，该国债期货累计跌幅接近2%。 | F9 前复权 超级蓉加 画线 丁具 © > | | | CFFEX30年期国债期货 | | | 立即 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.42% 2025/01/08-2025/07/23(130日)▼ n | | 118.99 | | -0.53 -0.44% | | 交易 | | | | CFFEX CNY 11:28:18 | | | | 1 . . + | | | | 型一 | 119.00 | 13 | | -2 | | | | 画一 | 118.99 | 27 | | -13 ...

Group 1 - The attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries is declining, leading investors to flock to emerging market bonds, resulting in the lowest spread between high-rated emerging market government and corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries since the financial crisis [1] - The premium of investment-grade emerging market sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasuries has dropped to 1.04 percentage points, while corporate bonds' premium stands at 1.1 percentage points, indicating a tightening of sovereign debt spreads since 2007 [1] - Concerns over the potential impact of Trump's erratic trade policies on emerging markets are diminishing, as investors shift focus to the improving economic conditions in these countries [1] Group 2 - High-rated Gulf countries are becoming regular issuers in the bond market, with Saudi Arabia expected to be one of the largest issuers of emerging market debt for the second consecutive year, utilizing the debt market to navigate low oil prices and fund large projects [2] - The quality of credit ratings in the emerging market space has significantly improved in recent years, contributing to the tightening of investment-grade emerging market spreads relative to historical levels [2] Group 3 - The tightening of spreads reflects a convergence trade between high-quality credit in emerging and developed markets, with global investors increasingly participating in emerging markets, particularly in investment-grade bonds [3] - Emerging markets have been significantly underweighted for years, providing more room for investors to increase their risk exposure in emerging market credit [3] - Some analysts caution that the optimistic sentiment among investors may not account for potential risks such as a sharp decline in global economic growth expectations or inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [3]

市场环境变化引发债券属性动态轮动。牛市初期资金涌入短久期、高评 级债券，后期博弈长久期低等级债券利差收缩空间。熊市初始阶段，抛 售从短久期债券开始逐步传导至低评级信用债。 动态调整策略对平衡风险与收益至关重要。应根据市场阶段灵活调整组 合配置，牛市初期重点配置短久期、高评级债券，牛市中后期向优质中 长期品种过渡，熊市则优先减持流动性差、长期品种。 债券攻防性的博弈 - 走在债市曲线之前 20250722 摘要 债券防守性较进攻性更稳定，长期来看，进攻性受市场波动影响大，而 防守性受影响较小。历史数据显示，防守性强的债券占比相对稳定，而 进攻性强的债券占比则显著下降。 机构交易活跃程度会放大债券收益波动，尤其是在市场剧烈变化时。不 同机构在牛熊市中的交易行为差异明显，如理财和保险在熊市中通常净 买入，而基金和券商则倾向于卖出，加剧市场波动。 不同机构对债券期限的偏好影响其交易行为。保险偏好长期限债券，理 财偏好短期债券。基金和券商作为主要卖出力量，对不同期限卖出规模 也有明显差异，影响市场供需。 债券持有人结构显著影响其表现。持有人结构均衡的债券交易平稳，而 集中由单一类型机构持有的债券，其收益率波动易被放大， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) proposed to cancel the regulation on the freezing of pledged bonds in bond repurchase agreements, which is seen as a significant move to enhance market liquidity and deepen the opening-up of the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Depth - The cancellation of the freezing regulation is expected to release liquidity in the bond market, allowing previously frozen high-liquidity bonds to re-enter the secondary market, thus increasing the available trading volume [2][3]. - Currently, the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos in the interbank market is around 50 to 60 trillion yuan, and releasing just 10% of the frozen bonds could inject an additional 10 trillion yuan into the market, enhancing market activity [3]. Group 2: International Integration - The adjustment aligns China's bond market with international practices, particularly the buyout repo model commonly used overseas, which allows pledged bonds to remain tradable [3][4]. - The move is anticipated to lower operational costs and improve convenience for foreign investors, thereby promoting a higher level of openness in the bond market [3][4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Efficiency - The removal of the freezing requirement provides greater flexibility for the central bank's monetary policy operations, addressing the issue of "no bonds available for purchase" during bond transactions [4]. - This reform is part of a broader strategy to enhance liquidity management, which includes various measures taken by the central bank since May, aiming to create a comprehensive liquidity support system [4].