印尼将毛棕榈油出口税从7.5%提高到毛棕榈油参考价格的10%。 ...

印度尼西亚将毛棕榈油出口税从7.5%提高到毛棕榈油参考价格的10%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a significant increase in palm oil production for April 2023, estimating a rise of 24.62% to 1.73 million tons [1] Production Estimates - The palm oil production in Peninsular Malaysia is expected to increase by 28.06% [1] - Sabah's production is projected to rise by 24.07% [1] - Sarawak is anticipated to see an increase of 11.37% [1] - The eastern region of Malaysia is expected to grow by 20.76% [1]

金十期货5月6日讯，南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-5日马来西亚棕榈 油单产增加61.58%，出油率增加0.59%，产量增加60.17%。 ...

Group 1 - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 1379.07 points, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous period [1] - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 26.344 million tons, a decrease of 452,000 tons week-on-week [1] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports for the same period were 24.497 million tons, down by 631,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for April 2025 is expected to be 1.79 million tons, an increase of 14.8% from March; production is projected at 1.62 million tons, up 16.9% from March; and exports are expected to reach 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March [1] - As of April 24, 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption for the year is reported at 4.44 million liters, with 3.2 million liters consumed from January to March; the mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia is set at 40%, up from 35% last year [1] Group 3 - As of May 3, 2025, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2024/25 season is at 97.7%, compared to 94.8% the previous week and 94.3% the same time last year, with a five-year average of 96.3% [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting rate in the U.S. is at 30%, below market expectations of 31%, and up from 18% the previous week and 24% last year, with a five-year average of 23%; the emergence rate is at 7%, compared to 8% last year and a five-year average of 5% [2] - India's Ministry of Mines reports that aluminum production for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to increase to 420,000 tons from 416,000 tons in 2023-24; refined copper production is projected to grow by 12.6%, from 509,000 tons in 2023-24 to 573,000 tons [2]

据《日本经济新闻》5月5日报道，第28届东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长会议4日在意大利米兰 举行。会议发表联合声明说，"贸易保护主义加剧将成为全球贸易的重负，导致经济分裂"，并对美国特 朗普政府的关税政策表示警惕。 当地时间5月4日,第28届东盟与中日韩 (10+3) 财长和央行行长会议在意大利米兰举 行,主要讨论全球和区域宏观经济形势、10+3 区域财金合作等议题,并发表了联合声明。 中国财政部部长蓝佛安、中国人民银行行长潘 功胜与马来西亚财政部第二部长阿米尔 ·哈姆扎 · 阿齐赞、马来西亚中央银行行长阿卜杜勒呼婷 东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会议在意 大利举行 央视新闻 2025-05-05 16:31 北京 中央广播电视总台 ... △意大利米兰(资料图) 全球经济被"关税游戏"玩坏了 要说特朗普的关税哲学，简直魔幻。按他的逻辑，只要给进口商品贴上"25%起步价"，美国工厂就能原 地复活，就业岗位立马上涨。可现实呢？还没等到产业复活，先等到了美国农业部门遭受巨大损失。联 合国秘书长古特雷斯都忍不住吐槽："贸易战没有赢家，这是全球经济的灾难"。 更绝的是特朗普式的反复横跳，今天豁免韩国钢铁，明天威胁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].