Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish; the rating for BR is neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is positive, and rubber prices are expected to remain strong. For RU and NR, with expected increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is likely to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories. For BR, supply may increase slightly, demand remains stable, and it may follow raw materials to weaken but is affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [5] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 market price was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from 613,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from 794,831 tons in the same period of 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] Consumption and Production Data - The ANRPC's June 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in June would decrease by 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase by 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of 2025, global natural rubber cumulative production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, while cumulative consumption would increase by 1% to 7.715 million tons [2] Sales Data - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period of last year [2] US Tire Import Data - In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% to 3.15 million [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,060 yuan/ton (- 55), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+ 65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,784 yuan/ton (- 105.10), the NR basis was 262 yuan/ton (- 7). Whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+ 40), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 50 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,520 yuan/ton (+ 40) [4] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 62.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.74), Thai latex was 54.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.65) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+ 0.80%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (- 0.27%) [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,288,849 tons (- 4,853), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (- 11,918), the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (- 1,350), and the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+ 2,519) [4] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was quoted at 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,012 yuan/ton (+ 142) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 68.17% (- 4.30%) [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,290 tons (- 230), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,150 tons (+ 350) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price lacks obvious driving force and moves towards the path of least resistance. The market is waiting for the meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The overall oil price shows an oscillatory trend [1] - For fuel oil, the supply is sufficient, and the subsequent upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [3] - The asphalt market in August is expected to gradually show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating in a range, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [3] - The polyester market is expected to have short - term oscillatory prices for PTA and strong low - level support for ethylene glycol, and attention should be paid to device changes [4] - The short - term rubber price is expected to be strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention to factors such as production during the peak season and anti - dumping investigations [6] - Methanol is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price oscillation [6] - Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited upward space and narrow - range price oscillation [8] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly, with supply remaining high and demand gradually recovering [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. However, OPEC+ production increased in July. The EIA report shows that US oil production will reach a record high in 2025 but may decline in 2026. API data shows changes in US oil inventories. The oil price is oscillatory [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, and the upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic, with an oscillatory trend [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover with the improvement of weather. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, polyester contracts showed different trends. The supply of PTA and ethylene glycol is recovering, and the prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to device changes [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber contracts rose. The short - term rubber price is strongly oscillatory, while the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol showed certain price characteristics. The Iranian device load has recovered, and the port inventory has increased, but the downward space is limited, with a near - weak and far - strong structure and narrow - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, polyolefin showed certain price and profit characteristics. The supply will remain high after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market price showed different trends in different regions. The supply is high, the demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 12 and 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC raised the forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered the forecast for supply growth in the US and other non - OPEC countries. In July, OPEC+ production increased, and Saudi Arabia's market supply and reported production showed different trends [11] - The EIA report shows that due to the improvement of well productivity, US oil production will reach a record high in 2025, but oil price decline will lead to a decrease in production in 2026 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][33][36] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [47][48][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, etc. [62][63][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts for multiple energy - chemical varieties, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the crude oil and other analysts Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 合成橡胶数据日报 免责 声明 投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资者需旨在判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向回贸期货客户推送。未经国贸期货授权许可，任 何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎， I C E K 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为- 流的衍生品综合服务商 市 市 客 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 I (Cleikelis 入 期 | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 能源化工研究中心：叶海文 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格证号: F3071622 | 2025/8/13 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and the domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.63% to 15,880 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [5] For Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile. Overall view is strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: After the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, the night - session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract on Tuesday maintained a strongly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.64% to 11,840 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has preliminarily determined that imported canola seeds from Canada are being dumped, leading to the implementation of a temporary anti-dumping measure with a deposit rate of 75.8% [1] - The decision is seen as significant, indicating that China does not require Canadian canola seeds, and it is effective from this Thursday [1] - The Ministry's actions aim to protect the domestic canola industry from the impact of low-priced dumped products, following extensive consultations [2] Group 2 - In addition to the anti-dumping investigation on canola seeds, China has also imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal since March [1] - The recent measures are expected to increase pressure on the Canadian government to address trade tensions with China, as Canada has previously announced tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products [2] - China has initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and has identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, which will also incur deposits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated anti-dumping investigations against imported canola seeds, halogenated butyl rubber, and pea starch from Canada, citing evidence of dumping and substantial harm to domestic industries [1][2][14]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigations - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of anti-dumping investigations for imported canola seeds and halogenated butyl rubber from Canada [1][2]. - The preliminary ruling indicated that the dumping margins were 75.8% for canola seeds and between 26.2% to 40.5% for halogenated butyl rubber from Canada [1][14]. - The investigations are based on evidence showing that the imported products were sold at prices significantly lower than domestic products, causing operational difficulties for local industries [2][14]. Group 2: Specific Product Details - The halogenated butyl rubber is categorized under the import and export tariff codes 40023910 and 40023990, and is primarily used in applications such as airtight layers for tires and sealants [8][10][11]. - The canola seeds are classified under tariff codes 12051090 and 12059090, mainly used for producing canola oil and meal [17][21]. - The pea starch, which is also under investigation, is used in various applications including food production and as a thickening agent, and is classified under tariff code 11081900 [26][28][29]. Group 3: Investigation Procedures and Outcomes - The Ministry of Commerce will impose temporary anti-dumping measures starting August 14, 2025, requiring importers to provide corresponding deposit amounts based on the determined dumping margins [6][15][22]. - The investigation period for the pea starch will cover from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the damage assessment period will span from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024 [24][30]. - Stakeholders have a 20-day window to register for participation in the investigation and submit relevant information [30][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Volatile [1] - Fuel oil: Volatile [2] - Asphalt: Volatile [2] - Polyester: Volatile [2] - PX: Volatile [4] - Rubber: Volatile [4] - Methanol: Volatile [6] - Polyolefins: Volatile [6] - PVC: Volatile and slightly bearish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: On Monday, oil prices stopped falling. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. The market is waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may ease sanctions on Russian oil. However, there is still uncertainty in the market, and oil prices need to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell on Monday. Supply is sufficient, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation in summer is weakening. The upward space for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is not optimistic [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Monday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves. The asphalt market in August is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices fluctuating in a range [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures rose on Monday. The supply of PTA and EG is recovering, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the spot prices of PTA and EG will fluctuate in the short term [2][4]. - **PX**: The supply and demand of PX continue to recover, and the PXN is slightly strong. PX prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber futures rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, demand expectations are improving, and inventories are stable. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the medium - and long - term situation needs further attention [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian methanol plants has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly, suppressing near - month prices. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the downward space is limited. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure and fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The检修 season is coming to an end, and supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, demand is expected to increase. Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **PVC**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and inventories are expected to decline slowly. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the market's short - selling power may recover. PVC prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: WTI September contract closed up $0.08 to $63.96/barrel, a 0.13% increase; Brent October contract closed up $0.04 to $66.63/barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2509 closed at 494 yuan/barrel, up 1.5 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. OPEC+ July production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day in July, with Saudi Arabia cutting 300,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day. Russia increased production by 70,000 barrels per day but was still below the quota [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 1.39% to 2,760 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.92% to 3,463 yuan/ton. Supply is sufficient, and the spot premium of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a four - month low [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract (BU2509) fell 0.51% to 3,512 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover as the weather improves [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.47% at 4,706 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.68% at 4,414 yuan/ton; the main PX contract (509) closed up 0.77% at 6,778 yuan/ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu have declined [2]. - **PX**: Supply and demand continue to recover, and prices are expected to follow crude oil price fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts (RU2601, NR, BR) rose on Monday. Short - term rubber raw materials are firm, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2,382 yuan/ton. Iranian plant load has recovered, and port inventories have increased rapidly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 is 7,020 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase [6]. - **PVC**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China has little change. Supply remains high, and demand is gradually picking up [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump will meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If no peace agreement is reached, sanctions on Moscow may be tightened [10]. - OPEC+ July crude oil production decreased to 41.65 million barrels per day. OPEC cut production by 190,000 barrels per day, and non - OPEC allies increased production by 50,000 barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the historical price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [12][14][16][18][20][21][22]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [57][62][63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the historical production profit charts of various energy and chemical products [66][67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy and chemicals, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [75].

ANRPC最新发布的2025年6月报告预测，6月全球天胶产量料降1.5%至119.1万吨，较上月增加14.5%；天胶消费量 料增0.7%至127.1万吨，较上月增加0.1%。上半年，全球天胶累计产量料降1.1%至607.6万吨，累计消费量则增1% 至771.5万吨。 化工日报 | 2025-08-12 青岛港口库存降幅增加 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15755元/吨，较前一日变动+205元/吨。NR主力合约12620元/吨，较前一日变动+215 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14750元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14580元/吨， 较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1805美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1755美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11700元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，2025年7月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计63.4 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of consolidation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.25% to 15760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly declined 0.17% to 11720 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [7].