多元供给点燃新春消费热潮 马年春节，一股"健康、智能、绿色"的消费新风尚席卷全国。据商务大数据，2月15日，重点平台智能 穿戴设备销售额增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖仪增长超60%，有机食品增长52%，用实打实的数据，彰 显出春节消费市场品质升级趋势。 在此背景下，深市食品饮料类上市公司以产品创新为核心，从节庆专属产品打造到健康品类研发，从供 应链效率提升到消费场景营造，全方位满足不同消费群体的新春需求，让节日消费既有"年味"更有"品 质"。 商超卖场年味浓郁、优质食品供销两旺、智能家电备受青睐……2026年丙午马年春节，恰逢最长春节假 期叠加消费政策红利释放，国内消费市场人气与活力双向攀升。 在这一过程中，深圳证券交易所市场（以下简称"深市"）消费类上市公司紧抓春节消费热潮，立足自身 主业优势，以产品创新贴合消费需求、以多元营销激活市场活力、以全球化布局拓展发展空间，在食品 饮料、家电等核心赛道展现出强劲的发展韧性，成为新春消费市场的活力因子，也为全年消费市场复苏 注入强劲动力。 产品创新锚定需求 例如，深耕速冻食品领域三十年的三全食品（002216）股份有限公司（以下简称"三全食品"），作为国 内速冻米面 ...

2026年春节假期，国内消费市场呈现出蓬勃生机，节日经济活力加速释放。"乐购新春"主题活动如火如 荼，普惠消费、商圈新业态、以旧换新等多重利好叠加，推动消费潜力集中释放，为全年经济发展注入 了强劲动力。记者从多家深市消费龙头企业获悉，春节期间，各企业紧扣消费热点，推出丰富多样的营 销活动，积极抢抓旺季机遇，为新一年市场拓展打下坚实基础。机构分析认为，在春节消费旺季的良好 开局带动下，消费类企业有望在今年实现业绩持续回暖。 "春节期间，我们积极拓展广告宣传渠道，成效显著。多维度、广覆盖的广告投放，有效提升了公司的 品牌知名度与影响力，为新一年的市场拓展奠定了良好基础，这不仅是品牌传播的有力实践，更彰显我 们迈向国际舞台、引领行业发展的坚定决心与强大实力。"燕京啤酒相关负责人告诉记者，公司在北 京、长春、广州、合肥、石家庄、济南、西安、南京、昆明9座城市投放户外LED大屏广告，覆盖核心 商圈，吸引大众目光；在天津、哈尔滨、沈阳、长春、赣州、贵阳、昆明等22个城市高铁站投放灯箱广 告，精准触达出行人群。国际市场上，公司也通过在热门区位投放LED广告大屏，展示"中国燕京邀请 世界欢度中国年"的品牌气度，向全球展示品牌 ...

本报告导读： 中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地 产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | | | 黄维驰(分析师) | | | 021-38032684 | | | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | ...

该行对颐海的增长前景转趋乐观，受以下因素支持：1)对2026年餐饮需求展望更为正面，利好包括颐海 在内的餐饮供应链企业；2)关联方销售出现拐点，海底捞营运于低基数回稳；3)颐海于2025年第四季加 价后，利润率有望改善。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，上调颐海国际(01579)去年及今年收入预测各1%，纯利预测则分 别升3%及6%，新预测意味着2025年至2026年预测收入及纯利复合年增长率分别为5%及11%。以现金流 折现率计，瑞银对其目标价由原先15.9港元上调至18.2港元，重申"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a recovery in the food and beverage industry, focusing on upstream opportunities. It suggests that the consumption power, which has been constrained by debt cycles, is expected to improve significantly by the second half of 2026, leading to a recovery in traditional consumption [8] - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Agricultural processing, including sugar processing, juice processing, and livestock 2. Food raw material suppliers, focusing on bio-extraction and sugar substitutes 3. Food packaging, which is expected to benefit from cost increases and improved competitive dynamics [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Focus on upstream sectors with three main lines: 1. Agricultural processing: - Sugar processing: Recommend COFCO Sugar (600737, Buy), related stock Crown Agricultural (600251, Not Rated) - Juice processing: Related stocks Andeli (605198, Not Rated), Andeli Juice (02218, Not Rated) - Livestock: Recommend Youran Dairy (09858, Buy), related stock Modern Farming (01117, Not Rated) 2. Food raw material suppliers: - Bio-extraction: Recommend Angel Yeast (600298, Buy), Bairun (002568, Buy), related stocks Chenguang Biotech (300138, Not Rated), Huabao International (00336, Not Rated), and Fujian Sunner Development (00546, Not Rated) - Sugar substitutes: Related stocks Bolinbao (002286, Not Rated), Sanyuan Bio (301206, Not Rated), and Bailong Chuangyuan (605016, Not Rated) 3. Food packaging: Related stock Aorui Jin (002701, Not Rated) [3]

一、 别被"完美表象"迷惑，交易行为才是核心 最近看到一份市场梳理，不少连续保持高净资产收益率（ROE）的公司被看作长期布局的优质标的，像食品饮料、电子、通信等行业里，不少公司不仅过往 ROE表现亮眼，还有机构预测未来三年相关数据能稳定在高位。但不少股民照着选，却没拿到预期的结果，甚至陷入被动——明明是财报亮眼的好公司，价 格却反复波动，或者看似要启动，结果又陷入调整。 为啥会这样？因为多数人靠主观感觉和表面信息选股：看走势、读财报、听消息，却忽略了这些都可 能是"刻意呈现的表象"。股市是博弈场，真实的交易行为才是决定结果的核心，而这恰恰是普通股民看不到的。这就是量化大数据的核心优势：能帮我们穿 透表面信息，还原真实的交易行为，避开那些"精心设计"的表象陷阱，让投资更理性。 股市里最容易犯的错，就是把看到的表象当成真相。比如有两只标的，一只在价格走高过程中出现多次大幅波动，一只在价格回落过程中出现多次快速回 升，回头看这些波动都是"作秀"，但身处其中时，很容易被表象带偏判断。 但如果用量化大数据的「机构库存」数据来看，一切就清晰了。「机构库存」 是反映机构资金是否积极参与交易的量化数据，它不代表资金的进出，只 ...

在当前全球经济面临通胀压力和市场需求波动的背景下，拥有160年历史的雀巢集团正经历一次重要的 战略转折。这家国际知名的食品和饮料公司，长期以来依靠的提价策略似乎已经达到了极限，并在全球 市场中逐渐失去效力。 2026年2月19日，雀巢集团发布了年度财务报告，报告显示该年的销售额为894.9亿瑞士法郎(约合7285.3 亿元人民币)，同比下降了2%。尽管这一降幅看似不大，但深入分析后会发现其中隐藏着不少隐患。据 披露，在2025年上半年，由于咖啡豆和可可的成本翻了一番，雀巢采取了激进的提价措施，这在一定程 度上推动了全年销售额增长了2.8%，然而实际销量的增长仅为0.8%。 由此可见，依靠价格上调来驱动业绩增长的方式给这个百年品牌带来了巨大的压力。除了全球市场的挑 战，雀巢在中国市场也遇到了一系列问题。在欧美市场，雀巢对糖果和咖啡产品的提价幅度分别达到了 10.6%和6.0%，这种做法在高通胀环境下曾一度奏效。然而，消费者的容忍度是有限的。当雀巢的产品 变得过于昂贵时，越来越多的家庭开始转向超市自有品牌的低价替代品，导致客户流失现象日益严重。 此外，非经营性损失也成为管理层的一大难题。2026年初，因全球供应商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional food market during the Spring Festival in Beijing, particularly at the Dongcheng District's Longfu Temple, showcases a vibrant cultural scene, with old brands like Beijing Daoxiangcun and Liubiju attracting significant consumer interest and sales growth. Group 1: Sales Performance - Beijing Daoxiangcun's sales of its popular three-piece set reached approximately three tons per day during the festival, with customer traffic increasing two to three times compared to regular days [3]. - The Longfu Temple market saw a doubling of sales for various products, with vendors like Fengnian Sausage selling around 1,000 pounds daily [5]. - Sales of soy sauce and vinegar at Liubiju were reported to have doubled, with products selling out within hours [5]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The market atmosphere reflects a blend of traditional flavors and modern consumer preferences, with younger generations actively seeking out these cultural experiences [3]. - Creative pastries inspired by classic Chinese literature, such as "Tang Seng Guo Guo" and "Da Sheng Guo Guo," are designed to resonate with cultural narratives, enhancing consumer engagement [4]. - Vendors are adapting to health trends by modifying recipes, such as reducing sugar in traditional snacks like Shaqima [5]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - The Longfu Temple market is part of a cultural triangle that includes the Forbidden City and Wangfujing, revitalizing traditional customs and enhancing the festive atmosphere [5]. - The presence of established brands and their innovative approaches not only attract crowds but also contribute to the preservation of Beijing's cultural heritage [5].

Core Insights - Nestlé is facing significant challenges due to inflationary pressures and demand fluctuations, leading to a peak in its price increase strategy that is now failing in global markets [1] - The company reported a 2% decline in sales for 2025, with total sales reaching 89.49 billion Swiss francs (approximately 728.53 billion RMB) [1] - The aggressive pricing strategy contributed 2.8% to annual sales growth, but the actual internal growth rate was only 0.8%, indicating reliance on pricing rather than volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Nestlé's net profit fell by 17% to 9 billion Swiss francs, marking a rare and significant decline [3] - The Greater China region experienced an organic growth rate of -6.4%, with an internal growth rate of -4.5% and a pricing contribution rate of -1.9%, significantly dragging down overall performance [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company is shifting its business model from distribution-driven to consumer demand-driven, focusing on reducing channel inventory and rebuilding marketing and innovation capabilities [3] - Nestlé has identified four core pillars for future growth: coffee, pet care, nutrition, and food & snacks, which together account for 70% of its sales [3] Group 3: Operational Challenges - A recall of infant formula due to contamination resulted in a non-operating loss of approximately 110 million Swiss francs (about 895 million RMB) and potential sales losses of up to 1.2 billion Swiss francs (about 9.77 billion RMB) in 2026 [2] - The company is negotiating the sale of its remaining ice cream business, which is a significant strategic move following the divestiture of its water business [4] Group 4: Market Competition - Nestlé's coffee business is facing intense competition from brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi, which are impacting its supply chain costs [4] - The company is attempting to innovate within the coffee segment by introducing new products to adapt to changing consumer preferences [4] Group 5: Workforce Optimization - Nestlé plans to reduce approximately 16,000 jobs, equivalent to 6% of its total workforce, as part of a broader effort to optimize its organizational structure [5] - The company is under pressure to adjust its human resources in response to performance challenges across various product lines [5]

昨夜，美国联邦最高法院，以6:3的投票结果裁定： 行政部门试图援引1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)，将贸易逆差或普通的经济竞争视为"国家紧急状态"，从而对全球进口商品实施地毯式关税的 行为，属于"行政越权"。 多数派意见书写得非常辛辣："如果国会想要授予总统重塑全球贸易格局的权力，它必须说得'清楚明白'。我们不能从模糊的法律文本中，推导出如此巨 大的行政扩张。" 随后白宫证实，在最高法院作出裁决后，美国政府依据先前行政令、援引IEEPA推动的相关关税将不再有效。 根据瑞银集团的测算，这部分被推翻的关税，占到特朗普2025年全年征收关税总额的75%，涵盖了从日用消费品、电子零部件到工业原材料的数千亿美元 商品。 受此影响，美股三大指数盘中全线拉升。 难道悬在美股头顶的这把大剑，真就这么没了? 01 预测2026年，关税仍将占相关企业价格上涨因素的四分之一左右，盈利空间被持续挤压。 所以在裁决公布后，高盛、摩根士丹利等机构，才第一时间就上调了进口依赖型企业的盈利预测。 其中，高盛将沃尔玛2026财年的每股收益上调至3.05美元，较此前预测上调了7.3%，理由是"关税取消后，沃尔玛的采购成本将下降2. ...