Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, highlighting the significant differences in operational efficiency among companies in the industry [5][22] - The report suggests that the current low market attention on the pig farming sector and its relatively low valuation present investment opportunities, particularly in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [5][22] - The report indicates that the overall supply of pigs is expected to be high in the long term, leading to a weak price outlook for pigs [4][21] Summary by Sections 1.1. Swine - In February, the sample of breeding sows decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, primarily due to increased culling by leading enterprises [4][21] - The latest pig price reached 14.62 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight of 127.92 kg [4][21] - The report anticipates downward pressure on pig prices in the short term due to rising feed costs and increased willingness to sell among farmers [4][21] 1.2. Poultry - The price of broilers has rebounded, with chick prices increasing by 7.41% month-on-month [6][23] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream breeding sources, indicating a new normal in the industry [6][23] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding sources and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [6][23] 1.3. Feed - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential [7][26] - Fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing significant year-on-year price increases [7][24] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are now focusing on improving market share and cash flow [9][24] 1.4. Pets - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth driven by the post-2000 generation, with a projected doubling of market space [11][27] - The report suggests focusing on high-performing brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are entering a growth phase [11][28] 1.5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's March report indicates a continued upward trend in agricultural prices, with significant reductions in corn imports expected [13][29] - The report highlights that corn and soybean prices are at historical lows, with a marginal improvement in supply-demand balance expected [13][29] Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.59% last week, while the Agricultural Index increased by 2.84% [30][30] - The animal health sector performed the best with a 4.20% increase [30][30]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 生猪养殖：根据猪易通数据，本周全国外三元生猪均价 14.64 元 /公斤，周环比+0.40%，截止本周五，全国生猪均价为 14.60 元/ 公斤，总体来看，本周猪价先涨后跌。据农业农村部数据，2025 年 1 月末，全国生猪存栏 42743 万头，比上年末减少 679 万头， 下降 1.6%。其中能繁母猪存栏 4062 万头，环比下降 0.4%，同比 下降 0.1%。养殖利润端，本周外购仔猪养殖亏损继续拉大，头均 亏损 34.44 元，产能去化或将开启，自繁自养养殖利润环比有所 增加，增至 35.15 元/头，环比+4.74%。展望后市，短期来看， 需求淡季居民整体消费疲软，供给仍偏宽松。中长期来看，由于 2024 年产能恢复速度较慢，2025 年下半年猪价有望超预期。建 议继续关注成本改善显著，且未来出栏量弹性较高的标的。具体 标的选择上，我们认为：（1）养殖板块：京基智农、牧原股 份、温氏股份；（2）饲料板块：海大集团；（3）动保后周期板 块：金河生物、生物股份、普莱柯和中牧股份等都有望充分受 益。 风险提示 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 猪肉猪价 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current market for pig farming shows a low price fluctuation, with the average price of live pigs at 14.57 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.48% [19] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.92 kg, which has increased by 0.68 kg week-on-week, indicating a rising inventory level [19] - The report highlights a significant increase in piglet sales, with a year-on-year growth of 181.22% in the first two months of the year [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising by 2.84% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.39% increase [10] - The sub-sectors within agriculture showed varied performance, with aquaculture and animal health sectors leading the gains [10] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of piglets is 34.08 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.03% [19] - The average weight of pigs sold has increased, indicating a trend towards higher weights in the market [19] - The inventory levels in slaughterhouses are rising, with a cold storage capacity utilization rate of 13.76%, up by 0.44 percentage points [19] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [3] - It suggests that the feed and veterinary sectors will benefit from a rebound in pig prices, recommending Hai Da Group for investment [3] - The seed industry is highlighted as having investment opportunities due to stabilizing grain prices and advancements in genetically modified crops, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being recommended [3] 4. Market Trends - The report notes that the pig farming sector is experiencing a significant increase in output, with a total of 2,806.15 million pigs sold in January and February, a year-on-year increase of 20.92% [2] - The prices of feed ingredients such as corn and wheat are showing upward trends, while soybean meal prices are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for feed costs [42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the investment strategy of "Technology + Consumption" for 2025, with technology already forming a consensus expectation while the consumption aspect still has potential to be explored [1][9]. - The report identifies two key expectation gaps: the first being that even with weak fiscal expansion, retail sales (社零) will exhibit higher elasticity [2][12]. - The report anticipates that as the fiscal spending cycle transitions from a contraction phase in 2023-2024 to a weak expansion phase in 2025, retail sales will show significant upward elasticity [2][12]. Group 2 - The second expectation gap highlights the easing of local debt pressure on consumption, indicating that provinces with higher debt burdens will see more pronounced rebounds in retail sales in categories such as jewelry, clothing, automobiles, and cosmetics [3][18]. - The report suggests that the market may experience short-term consolidation due to high market sentiment, profit-taking, and the calendar effect of the Two Sessions, but the core driving force of the current market remains unchanged [20][21]. - Industry allocation recommendations include four key sectors: (1) Technology growth focusing on AI and autonomous control, (2) Consumption driven by policy and endogenous recovery, (3) Cost improvement sectors, and (4) Structural opportunities in overseas markets [21][22].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Guangdong Haida Group Co., Ltd., reported a 9% year-on-year growth in total feed sales for 2024, surpassing the industry average [2][3] - The poultry and aquaculture feed segments achieved double-digit growth, while pig feed sales experienced a slight decline [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Planning - The company aims to enhance its core capabilities and expand its scale in the feed business, which is its primary focus [3] - The second core business includes breeding and animal health, with plans to invest more resources to expand product varieties, regions, and scale [3] - The company is exploring a light-asset pig farming model and industrialized shrimp farming, which will become key future business areas [3] Group 3: Market Insights - The price of common freshwater fish has been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year, while prices for specific varieties have shown some differentiation [4] - The recent price increase for common freshwater fish is attributed to a prolonged period of low prices and significant capacity reduction in 2023 [5] Group 4: Customer Structure and Adaptation - The company is adapting to the trend of smallholders exiting the pig farming market by enhancing its capabilities and adjusting its customer structure [7] - The focus is on developing partnerships with family farms that have strong farming advantages and profitability, as well as targeting medium to large-scale farming companies [7] Group 5: International Expansion - The company has set a target to achieve 7.2 million tons in overseas feed sales by 2030, employing targeted market expansion strategies in different regions [8] - Factors influencing overseas market selection include population size, stable development environment, rich farming resources, and potential demand for protein [8] Group 6: Risk Management - The company employs foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency and interest rate fluctuations [8]

春季关注春耕备货，宠物关注新品动向 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 本报告导读： 种子：玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货。宠物：京宠展召开，看好宠物经济 蓬勃发展，关注国产品牌新品动向。饲料行业：饲料竞争再起。 投资要点： [种业： Table_Summary] 玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货 上周玉米现货价格继续上涨，突破 2218 元/吨，延续年初以来的涨 势。2025 年在美国加征关税背景下，我国玉米粮食进口或进一步缩 减，看好 2025 年玉米粮价景气度回升。近期农业农村部发布 19 项 课题目录，包括"保障国家粮食安全的路径选择"、"粮食作物大 面积单产提升瓶颈制约与对策研究"等，体现政策对于粮食安全的 重视。转基因技术应用推动种业格局进一步改善，品种竞争力强、 技术储备领先的公司有望受益。春耕在即，建议关注种子经销商补 货情况，具备强竞争力的品种或在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weak trend in pig prices and a decline in broiler chicken prices, indicating potential challenges in the livestock sector [3][4] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural commodities, including grains, oils, and livestock, with specific price movements and percentage changes noted [23][24] Market Overview - The report covers the market performance of the agricultural sector, noting a decrease of 0.35% in the agricultural index compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [13] - Specific livestock prices are detailed, with live pig prices at 14.51 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 0.96% [24] - Broiler chicken prices are reported at 3.40 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting an increase of 9.68% [24] Price Trends - The report includes various price trends for grains, with domestic corn priced at 2151.43 yuan/ton, showing an increase of 1.14% [23] - Domestic soybean prices are noted at 3950.00 yuan/ton, remaining stable with no change [23] - The report also highlights fluctuations in edible oils, with soybean oil priced at 8408.00 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% [23] Individual Stock Performance - The report lists individual stock performances within the agricultural sector, with notable movements such as New Hope rising by 1.02% and *ST Aonong declining by 2.01% [13][16] - The performance of various companies in the livestock and feed sectors is analyzed, indicating mixed results across the board [13][16] Valuation Levels - The report provides valuation metrics, with TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) PE ratios for the agricultural sector at 22.41, compared to 11.39 for the broader market [16]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Overweight" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [49]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs as of March 7 is 14.45 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.41% from the previous week, while year-on-year prices remain stable. Major pig farming companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, reported significant year-on-year increases in their pig output for January and February, with growth rates of 10.54% and 20.58% respectively [1][8]. - In the poultry sector, the average price of white feathered broilers has rebounded slightly to 6.59 CNY/kg, up 8.03% week-on-week, but remains low due to oversupply, leading to significant losses for farmers [2][9]. - The Chinese government has announced tariffs on certain agricultural products from the U.S. and Canada, including a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, and corn, and a 10% tariff on soybeans and pork. This is expected to have limited impact on domestic corn and wheat prices due to low import dependency [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 14.45 CNY/kg, down 0.41% week-on-week, with major companies reporting increased output [1][8]. - The slaughter volume from March 1 to March 7 was 984,600 pigs, up 3.53% week-on-week and 3.04% year-on-year [1][8]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 127.06 kg, with a higher proportion of larger pigs being sold [1][8]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feathered broilers is 6.59 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 8.03% but still low due to oversupply [2][9]. - The price of broiler chicks is 2.54 CNY/chick, up 10.92% week-on-week, but still below the cost line for farmers [2][9]. - Profit margins for broiler farming remain negative, with losses reported for both broilers and parent stock [2][9]. 3. Agricultural Products - Tariffs on U.S. and Canadian agricultural products are expected to have limited impact on domestic prices due to low import dependency for corn and wheat [3][11]. - The average prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans as of March 7 are 2,424.61 CNY/ton, 2,229.12 CNY/ton, and 3,856.79 CNY/ton respectively, with wheat and soybeans showing a decline [10][30]. 4. Feed Industry - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year, with notable growth in pet feed [12][14]. - Prices for various types of feed have shown mixed trends, with pig feed prices at 3.37 CNY/kg, up 0.30% week-on-week [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][5][39] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery potential of undervalued leading breeding companies and the long-term upward trend in rubber prices [1][3][14] - Key recommendations include focusing on high ROE value stocks in the breeding sector and identifying growth opportunities in the pet food market [1][3][39] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - For pets: Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Biological [1][3][16] - For breeding: Mu Yuan Co., Hua Tong Co., and Wen's Food Group [1][3][39] - For rubber: Hainan Rubber, a leading global player in natural rubber cultivation and processing [1][3][22] Breeding Sector - The breeding sector is expected to maintain low volatility in production capacity, with overall supply-demand balance remaining stable [1][17][39] - Specific insights include: - Swine prices were reported at 14.46 CNY/kg, down 8.88% month-on-month, with a slight increase in average weight [2][25] - Poultry supply is at a low, with potential demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [30][35] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with R&D and integration advantages in the seed industry [1][19][39] - Key recommendations include: - Hainan Rubber, with significant production and processing capabilities [1][22] Market Trends - The report notes that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 0.20% in February, underperforming compared to the broader market [2][5] - The report also highlights the strong performance of specific stocks, such as Tianye Co. and Dayu Biological, with notable increases in their stock prices [2][5]