Group 1 - The core objective of the event is to promote consumer policies directly to enterprises, facilitating precise connections between supply and demand [1] - The Huaiyin District Commerce Bureau conducted an on-site activity to explain and guide employees on the standards, application processes, and timelines for subsidies related to the replacement of old automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [3] - The event featured local home appliance company Nian Nian Wang and China Mobile, providing immersive experiences with electronic products such as smartphones, smartwatches, and tablets [5] Group 2 - The Huaiyin District Commerce Bureau plans to continue deepening the "Five Advances" consumer replacement initiative, aiming to expand the coverage and influence of the policy [5] - The bureau aims to stimulate market potential by ensuring that policy strength resonates with market enthusiasm [5]

钢贸商当前囤货情况如何？赵毅告诉记者，尽管冬储意愿较低，但现在已经进入社会库存累积阶段。根 据钢联数据，截至2月5日当周，螺纹钢总库存为519.57万吨，环比上升44.04万吨，同比下降185.81万 吨。其中，社会库存为365.92万吨，环比上升39.52万吨；钢厂库存为153.65万吨，环比上升4.52万吨。 由此可见，螺纹钢累库的主要增量来自社会端。社会库存的上升更多是钢贸商被动冬储行为导致的。也 就是说，由于冬季建筑施工需求快速萎缩，叠加春节假期因素，贸易商的库存无法继续向下传导，而钢 厂资源到货行为仍在延续，引发了社会库存走高。目前市场上的投机性囤货量较往年大幅降低，更倾向 于轻库存、快周转的业务模式。当前的社库累积情况更多是供需错配导致。 "目前来看，商家对后期行情预期偏谨慎，主动冬储意愿不强，多数处于被动冬储状态，且各地表现也 有差异。据钢联调研，杭州地区贸易商的积极性相对较强，目前已经明确冬储政策的钢厂的建材计划量 在113.5万吨左右，要高于去年，但多数是以后结算模式、期现套利介入为主，主动博行情占比有限。 其他地区冬储意愿较为有限，河南地区商家冬储意愿不强，今年冬储的客户数量以及冬储量为近 ...

Core Insights - The successful upgrade of the F3 precision rolling mill control system at Chaoyang Steel's 1700 hot rolling line marks a significant step towards the localization of core control systems in China's steel industry [1][3] - The project aims to reduce reliance on imported equipment, addressing issues such as long upgrade cycles and insufficient adaptability to modern production demands [1][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The upgrade project was officially launched on February 4, with the F3 precision rolling mill being the focal point of the upgrade [1][4] - The project was executed by a specialized team from Anshan Steel and Ansteel Digital Technology, focusing on "independent control, safety, and efficiency" [1][3] Group 2: Technical Achievements - The new domestic high-performance controller allows for multi-task cycle scanning and achieves millisecond-level control, reducing average cycle time by over 60% compared to the previous system [2][4] - The upgrade resolves significant stability issues of the previous imported controller, enhancing control precision and response speed, thereby supporting improved steel plate rolling accuracy and production efficiency [2][4] Group 3: Future Plans - The 1700 hot rolling line has completed three phases of localization, with plans to achieve full process control system localization by 2026 [2][4] - The team aims to continue collaboration with Ansteel Digital Technology and research institutions to advance the localization of other critical equipment, such as heating furnaces and roughing mills [2][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode, resulting in a continued reduction in the overall production of the five major steel products, except for medium - thick plates which are still increasing production [5]. - Steel inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, with the overall social inventory pressure being greater than the factory inventory. The demand for building materials is rapidly declining as downstream construction sites are gradually shutting down, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is also decreasing due to factors such as the decline in export licenses and the end of restocking by overseas manufacturing industries. However, the decline in demand for cold - rolled products still shows some resilience [5]. - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival. After the festival, capital expenditure may fall short of expectations, and the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the level of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Steel Spot Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3190 yuan, Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3120 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan, and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan, with no price changes [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel is 1690000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 225200 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 1019100 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 39.6% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 457300 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 99400 tons, the social inventory increased by 573100 tons, and the total inventory increased by 672500 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production of hot - rolled coils this week is 3077600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14000 tons. The estimated apparent demand is 2961900 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.17% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 93500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 11000 tons, the social inventory increased by 104700 tons, and the total inventory increased by 115700 tons [9][10]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, and various profit and cost charts. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the situation of weak supply and demand before the holiday remains unchanged, fundamental contradictions of rebar continue to accumulate, inventory has increased significantly, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.31%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals continue to operate weakly. The price of hot-rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance, and beware of the intensification of contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, affected by weather factors, the overseas ore supply has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable. On the contrary, the demand performance is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore remain weak. Under the dominance of the real logic, the ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the United States maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism, aiming to promote the healthy, stable and sustainable development of China - US economic and trade relations [7]. - In January 2026, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.544 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.973 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The wholesale volume of self - owned car companies was 1.326 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The wholesale volume of mainstream joint - venture car companies was 0.42 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 0.228 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - As of February 11, 2026, 35 steel enterprises have passed the acceptance and publicity of the ultimate energy - efficiency benchmark of the China Iron and Steel Association, and on that day, Shiheng Special Steel Group Co., Ltd. passed the acceptance [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,190, 3,150 and 3,304 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,240, 3,140 and 3,279 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet is 2,900, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,160. The volume - to - rebar spread is 50, and the rebar - to - scrap spread is 1,030. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 758, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 767, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates are 8.27 and 22.58 respectively, the SGX swap price (current month) is 100.29, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 99.95 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,050, with a decline of 0.23%, the trading volume is 444,164, a decrease of 113,120 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 2,029,537, a decrease of 34,123 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,218, with a decline of 0.31%, the trading volume is 214,288, a decrease of 40,967 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 1,533,692, a decrease of 18,682 compared with the previous period. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 762.0, with a decline of 0.20%, the trading volume is 112,867, a decrease of 20,919 compared with the previous period, and the open interest is 497,918, a decrease of 9,039 compared with the previous period [12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to steel and iron ore, including inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of steel mills [14][29]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand continue to weaken, inventory has increased significantly, the weekly output of short - process steel mills has decreased by 22.52 tons, and supply continues to shrink. However, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. The demand for rebar also weakens, and high - frequency demand indicators are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to drag down steel prices. The relatively positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected that the trend will continue to seek the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand continue to weaken seasonally, the inventory increase has expanded, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 1.40 tons, and it is still at a relatively high level. The supply pressure still exists. The demand for hot - rolled coil continues to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 9.35 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains at a high level, it provides support for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The export performance is average, and the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil weakens. The price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and operates weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills stabilizes, and the terminal consumption of ore increases slightly. However, considering the poor profitability of steel mills and the accumulation of steel market contradictions, the demand improvement is limited. The arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipping of miners has decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances, resulting in a short - term contraction of overseas ore supply. The domestic ore supply also contracts seasonally, and the high - inventory situation limits the relief of ore supply pressure. The ore price continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners during the holiday [38].

Group 1 - The Chief Financial Officer of Thyssenkrupp stated that the current pension liabilities related to the steel business amount to approximately €2.4 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fangda Group is recognized for its generous employee benefits and significant wealth accumulation by its leader, Fang Wei, who has established a unique corporate welfare system while aggressively pursuing mergers and acquisitions in various industries [8][10][57]. Employee Welfare - Over the past decade, Fangda Group has distributed nearly 4 billion yuan in cash bonuses to employees, showcasing a commitment to employee welfare [4][7]. - The company has implemented a comprehensive welfare system that includes medical assistance, major illness relief, scholarships, pensions, and filial piety funds, creating a family-like support network for its 130,000 employees [12][14]. - Notable welfare initiatives include providing cars to employees and significant charitable contributions exceeding 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to both employee and social welfare [20][21]. Business Strategy - Fang Wei's wealth has increased significantly, with his net worth rising to 52.5 billion yuan in 2025, up from 40.5 billion yuan in 2024, indicating successful business operations [9][10]. - The company's growth strategy heavily relies on acquiring state-owned enterprises, with a focus on turning around struggling assets through a model of "merger and turnaround" [22][30]. - Fangda Group has successfully executed multiple acquisitions, including significant stakes in companies across various sectors such as steel, pharmaceuticals, and aviation, demonstrating a strategic approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [30][33]. Recent Developments - In 2025, Fangda Group entered a strategic partnership with CATL to focus on zero-carbon initiatives and plans to invest 5 billion yuan in a healthcare project in Sanya, indicating a shift towards the health and renewable energy sectors [49]. - Despite a recent failed attempt to acquire the troubled Sunwoda Group, Fangda Group continues to seek new opportunities in the market, reflecting its ongoing ambition to expand into new industries [40][47]. - The company has also engaged in real estate investments, acquiring properties to bolster its asset portfolio amid economic pressures [50][51]. Conclusion - Fangda Group exemplifies a dual approach of generous employee benefits and aggressive market strategies, positioning itself as a significant player in China's private enterprise landscape while navigating the complexities of capital expansion and social responsibility [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Baowu Steel Group plans to fully subscribe to Chongqing Steel's 1 billion yuan private placement through its wholly-owned subsidiary, increasing its shareholding to 35.07% after the issuance [1][2] - The funds raised from the private placement will be used to supplement working capital and repay bank loans, enhancing control over Chongqing Steel [2] - The private placement shares will have a lock-up period of 36 months [2] Group 2 - Chongqing Steel expects a net profit loss of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, which is a reduction in loss compared to the previous year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.091 billion yuan and a net profit loss of 218 million yuan, reflecting an 83.82% reduction in loss year-on-year [3] - The steel market's supply-demand adjustments and asset impairment provisions are the main factors affecting the company's financial performance [3] Group 3 - The steel industry is expected to promote capacity optimization and ultra-low emission transformation according to the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [4] - Chongqing Steel is advancing environmental upgrades in line with policy requirements, aiming to complete ultra-low emission transformation by the end of 2025 [4] Group 4 - On February 10, 2026, Chongqing Steel had a net financing inflow of 563,700 yuan, with financing balance rising to 1.97 billion yuan, although the stock price faced short-term pressure with a 2.46% decline over the past week [5] - The A-share steel sector was boosted by industry policy expectations during the same period [5] Group 5 - Between July 2024 and July 2025, China Baowu increased its stake in Chongqing Steel by acquiring 137 million shares (1.55% of total share capital) for a total investment of 150.5 million yuan, demonstrating long-term confidence in the company [6]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/2/12 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,218 | -10↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1533692 | -18682↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 45,646 | +3981↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].