1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the alumina market lies in the conflict between the tight supply of domestic bauxite, low shipments from Guinea, and the high absolute level of bauxite inventory. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. After a short - term price correction, the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with inventory being the key focus [3]. - In the case of cast aluminum alloy, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the registration of standard warehouse receipts [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2877 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.78%, and a historical percentile of 10.14% over 3 years [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20685 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45%, and a historical percentile of 18.82% over 3 years [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19900 - 20800 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.96%, and a historical percentile of 30.26% over 3 years [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 2850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 90% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 21300 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 80% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19900 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Alumina**: The core contradiction in the bauxite market is the conflict between tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high inventory levels. The main factor affecting alumina prices is supply surplus, and the surplus state is expected to continue [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and downstream purchasing sentiment, and is expected to remain volatile at a high level [3]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: The market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. On one hand, raw material prices provide cost support, and pre - holiday restocking demand is positive; on the other hand, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [6]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price**: The prices of various aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts have shown different degrees of change, such as a - 0.29% daily decline in the Shanghai Aluminum main contract to 20685 yuan/ton [1][7]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts has shown significant fluctuations [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Aluminum**: The total Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts are 68960 tons, a decrease of 2.55%. The total LME aluminum inventory is 513850 tons, a decrease of 0.01% [29]. - **Alumina**: The total warehouse receipts for alumina in warehouses are 151006 tons, a decrease of 0.79% [29].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) experienced a decline of over 5%, reaching a low of 39.32 HKD, marking a new low in over a month [1] Company Summary - As of the latest update, Nanshan Aluminum International's stock price fell by 5.39% to 39.66 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.55 million HKD [1] - The company is set to face a lock-up expiration on September 25, with a total of 35.1363 million shares being unlocked [1] - Key cornerstone investors, including Glencore International AG and others, have a lock-up commitment that ends on September 24, 2025 [1] Market Activity - On September 18, shareholders of Nanshan Aluminum International deposited shares into Huatai Hong Kong, with a market value of 9.32 billion HKD, representing 37.36% of the total [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (600219) experienced a decline of over 5%, reaching a low of 39.32 HKD, marking a new low in over a month [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, Nanshan Aluminum International's stock was down 5.39%, trading at 39.66 HKD with a transaction volume of 25.55 million HKD [1] Group 2: Unlocking of Shares - On September 25, 2023, Nanshan Aluminum International will face a share unlocking event, with a total of 35.1363 million shares set to be released from lock-up [1] - The lock-up period for cornerstone investors, including Glencore International AG and others, will end on September 24, 2025 [1] Group 3: Shareholding Information - As of September 18, 2023, shareholders of Nanshan Aluminum International deposited shares worth 9.32 billion HKD into Huatai Hong Kong, representing 37.36% of the total shareholding [1]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, opening at $2652.5 per ton and currently at $2646 per ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1] - On September 22, LME aluminum futures closed at $2655 per ton, down 0.78% from the previous day, with a trading range of $2635 to $2682.5 per ton [2] - The current inventory of aluminum at LME is 513,900 tons, with registered warrants at 404,675 tons and canceled warrants at 109,225 tons, remaining unchanged [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 7.74, indicating an import loss of 1,783.63 yuan per ton, slightly improved from a loss of 1,850.55 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,198 tons from the previous trading day, totaling 70,761 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views -成材震荡整理运行 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭预计价格短期偏弱调整 关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨 安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产 日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日 10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3% 同比增长43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行 价格创近期新低 供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观 价格重心下移 今年冬储低迷 对价格支撑不强 [4] 氧化铝 -氧化铝基本面维持过剩格局 供应端国内运行产能高位 进口窗口开启 库存高位 需求端国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率较上周小幅增加0.1个百分点至62.2% 与去年同期相比下降1.3个百分点 [4] -截至上周四 全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11032万吨/年 运行总产能9233万吨/年 全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周上调0.92个百分点至83.69% [4] 铝锭 -9月22日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存63.8万吨 持平于上周四库存 较上周一上涨0.1万吨 9.16 - 9.21期间国内铝锭出库量共计12.23万吨 环比增加1.47万吨 [4] -宏观降息预期兑现 关注国内政策推进 当下过渡到金九银十 宏观与基本面带来支撑 宏观靴子落地 预计价格短期持高位整理 后续关注库消走势 [5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Group 2: Core Views - After the interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, domestic consumption is recovering, and exports are good. The social inventory is at a relatively low level and is showing signs of reaching a peak. For alumina, the supply surplus is difficult to resolve, and the current price has cost support. For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still excessive, and the spread repair with aluminum prices may face obstacles [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On September 22, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,717 lots, and the position was 236,067 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 70,761 tons, a change of - 1,198 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On September 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,970 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,175 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton, closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.07%. The highest price was 2,961 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,906 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,040 lots, and the position was 317,523 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 22, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the TMT sector is booming, but the overall market volume is shrinking. The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank policies and market sentiment, showing a mixed situation. The precious metals market is driven by overseas political turmoil and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes, with prices reaching new highs. The shipping index shows a volatile trend, and the commodity futures market, including non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products, also presents different supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares strengthened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted. The consumer electronics sector led the rise, while the consumer - related sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: Domestic news includes a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry. Overseas, there are differences between South Korea and the US on a $350 billion investment [3][4]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the trading volume of A - shares decreased. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to shock. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 to collect premiums when the index pulls back [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds continued to improve [6]. - **Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy is supportive, and it will ensure liquidity and promote the decline of social financing costs [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still mixed. It is recommended to operate within the range, and consider the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to the political turmoil in Argentina and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rate cuts, the precious metals market was driven by risk - aversion sentiment, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs [8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is above $41 [10]. - **Funding**: The Fed's loose monetary policy stimulates institutional investors to increase their holdings of ETFs [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 22, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies are in different ranges [11]. - **Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index decreased by 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9%, the Shanghai - US West freight rate increased by 31%, and the Shanghai - US East freight rate decreased by 23% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.35% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile. It is expected that the spot inflection point will appear in mid - to - late October, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is advisable to consider the spread arbitrage between the 12 - month and 10 - month contracts [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the market procurement sentiment weakened when the price returned to around 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the future interest rate cut path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data [13][14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the price correction, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [16]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak. The market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides support for the price [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply pattern was gradually loosening [17]. - **Supply**: In August, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected to continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [18]. - **Logic**: The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the market trading activity increased [19]. - **Supply**: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries were in the process of recovery [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is generally positive, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly in September [22]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it is expected to recover moderately in September [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the cost support is significant. The demand is gradually recovering, and the spot price is expected to remain firm in the short term [23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased slightly, and some downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [23][24]. - **Supply**: The import TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease slightly in September but increase year - on - year [24]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased in the peak season, and the inventory of raw materials increased [25]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [25]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 22, the price of 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The trading activity decreased after the price increase [26][27]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore import volume in August was at a low level, and the tin ingot import volume decreased [28]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a tight - balance situation [29]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply side provides support for the price. Attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased slightly [30]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is weak, while the demand for alloys is relatively good. The price of nickel sulfate has increased recently but may face pressure in the medium term [31]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a high level and increased, while the domestic social inventory increased slightly and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 and 125,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of chromium ore is rising [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August and September increased [34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of narrow - range fluctuation. The cost support is significant, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: The production in August increased, and it continued to increase in September. The supply is affected by new projects and imports [37][38]. - **Demand**: The demand is stable and optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. The demand in September and October is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - **Logic**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton in the short term [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply - demand relationships. The profit of steel products has declined [40]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased in the first eight months, and the production of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [40]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat in the first eight months. The export of steel products supported the valuation [40]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to go long lightly and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or increased slightly [44]. - **Futures**: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly [44]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increased, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. The spot auction price showed signs of stabilization and rebound [47][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mines in the main production areas continued to resume production, and the import coal price followed the futures price [49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production continued to increase, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal market is moving towards a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures fluctuated and declined. Some coking enterprises started to raise prices [50][52]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [50]. - **Supply**: The coking enterprises in the north have high enthusiasm for resuming production [52]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the demand for coke was supported [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with the coking plant inventory decreasing and the steel mill and port inventories increasing [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke spot price is expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot prices of soybean meal increased on September 22, and the trading volume increased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [53]. - **Fundamentals**: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The US is expected to increase soybean planting next year, and the soybean planting in Brazil has started [53][54]. - **Market Outlook**: The cancellation of the export tax in Argentina put pressure on the US soybean and domestic oil - meal markets. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [56]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated weakly, with prices in various regions decreasing [57]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm for slaughtering by farmers and second - fattening increased [57]. - **Market Outlook**: The pressure on live pig slaughter is high, and the spot price is difficult to improve before the National Day. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between different contracts [58].

Core Insights - In August, global primary aluminum production reached 6.277 million tons, with a daily average production of 202,500 tons [1] - Excluding China and unreported regions, primary aluminum production in August was 2.299 million tons, with a daily average of 74,100 tons [1]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut decision has been made, but China's 5 - year LPR remained unchanged on Monday. The A - share market weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, continuing the adjustment trend. The main contract 2511 closed down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina remain weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is gradually emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September", the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the absolute price falls and aluminum processing enterprises have pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward - then - downward trend, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - Bauxite Situation: The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - Alumina Suggestion: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Strategy: The trend of cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Outlook: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although it has entered the peak season, the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the price falls and there is pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Policy Issuance: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and guide the orderly layout of related industries [8][10]. - Project Delay: India's Federal Ministry of Environment has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project has an estimated reserve of 311 million tons. The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) pointed out that the report submitted by the Odisha government did not address issues such as community consent, compensatory afforestation, and ecological risks. The project will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - Mining Right Change: The mining right of the Dataoyuan bauxite mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Summary by Categories Company Actions - The company plans to repurchase 276,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 7.1493 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 25.62 to HKD 25.96 [1] Financial Implications - The total expenditure for the buyback reflects the company's strategy to enhance shareholder value [1]