Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which is expected to enhance risk management tools for the propylene industry and support high-quality development [1] Industry Summary - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product with upstream raw materials including crude oil, naphtha, coal, methanol, and propane, and downstream products such as polypropylene, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile, which are widely used in various sectors like home appliances, automotive, textiles, medical devices, and cosmetics [1] - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to provide a pivotal role in the industry chain, offering enhanced risk management tools for enterprises, facilitating better hedging strategies, and improving the resilience of the industry chain [1] Company Impact - The launch of propylene futures and options is seen as a significant milestone for the domestic futures market, providing robust inventory hedging tools and processing interval hedging tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry [2] - Major companies in the industry, such as Donghua Energy, have indicated that the new futures and options will help fill the gap in the C3 chain, allowing firms to lock in propylene purchase and sales prices, thus mitigating risks from price fluctuations in the spot market [2] - Companies like Jinneng Chemical have expressed that using propylene futures can help secure processing profits and reduce operational losses, contributing to stable business development [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic propylene enterprises are actively expanding into international markets, but often rely on limited and less transparent pricing from foreign information agencies; the introduction of propylene futures is expected to enhance the international pricing influence of Chinese propylene [3] - The simultaneous launch of propylene futures and options will cater to the diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises, allowing for flexible selection of various option contracts and strategies [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is committed to ensuring a smooth launch of propylene futures and options, conducting market cultivation activities, and promoting typical case studies to enrich enterprise risk management strategies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：周内伊以停火后，油价迅速回吐地缘溢价后重回震荡，上游成本支撑塌陷，PTA期货盘面跟随走低，不过供需结构上， PTA自身并未累库，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡调整，现货基差区间波动。关注7月聚酯降负情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间波动，现货市场商谈一般，现货基差快速走弱，贸易商商谈为主。本周下周货主流在09+210~240 成交，个别偏高，价格商谈区间在5000~5060附近。7月中下在09+210有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+224。中性 2、基差：现货5050，09合约基差252，盘面贴水 偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 25th, glass and soda ash prices fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, the price elasticity at low levels is relatively large [2]. - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot price is poor, production and sales are weak, inventory accumulation is accelerating, and the outlook has become more pessimistic. Overall, the supply - demand situation may remain weak, with insufficient cost support, and prices are under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - For soda ash, after the end of maintenance, supply has recovered rapidly. There is an expectation of weakening direct demand, and concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced. The profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, the negative feedback has intensified, and cost support has weakened. In the short term, prices may tend to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market Data - **Glass Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1159, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 41. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1200, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.08%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 34, with a change of 0. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1166, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between September and January contracts is 7, with a change of 0 [1]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1066, with no change and a change rate of 0.0%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 130. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1107, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.09%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 90, with a change of - 1. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1017, with a change of 2 and a change rate of 0.2%. The price difference between September and January contracts is - 49, with a change of 2 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Glass Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1230; in other regions, it is 1300 and 9960 (assumed to be a data error, might need further clarification). - **Soda Ash Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1350; in other regions, it is 1300 [1]. Basis Data - **Glass Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from - 206 to 283. - **Soda Ash Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from 134 to 213 [1]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the prices of glass and soda ash may tend to fluctuate. Participate with option call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main driver lies in the price fluctuations of crude oil at the upstream cost end. After the US attacked Iran, oil prices declined, indicating that the market believes the most intense expectations have been fulfilled [2] - For pure benzene, domestic production rates have reached a high level, while the low production rates of downstream CPL and aniline have dragged down demand. There is still significant pressure from South Korea on Chinese imports, leading to a rapid increase in port inventories and a suppression of processing fees [2] - For styrene, port inventories are gradually entering a rising cycle, and domestic production rates have reached a near - three - year high, with factory inventories also in a build - up phase. Downstream PS and ABS still face inventory pressure, leading to poor production performance [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - Includes EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, styrene contract spreads, non - integrated plant production profits, import profits, and pure benzene price spreads [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Covers pure benzene port inventories, production rates, styrene port inventories, production rates, commercial inventories, and factory inventories [23][25][28] Downstream Production and Production Profits - Involves the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [36][41][45] Downstream Production Profits of Pure Benzene - Includes the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [47][52][57]

化工日报 | 2025-06-24 原油冲高回落，PX依然偏紧 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN250美元/吨(环比变动-11.63美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停 车，沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货 源仍较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展，PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 264 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费383元/吨（环比变动-30元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费360元/吨（环比变动+18元/吨），伴随大量仓单注销主流供应商排货，现货市场流通性偏紧的情况 有所缓解，PTA自身基本面支撑有所转弱，关注伊以局势对成本的影响和需求支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率92.0%（环比+1.1%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺，原料价格上涨后集中补库下长丝库存下降，后续价格高位震荡库存压力可能提升，继续关注 聚酯库存变化，短期长丝负荷预计还能维持；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方 面，万 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：地缘风险加剧，趋势走强，月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：地缘风险加剧，单边走势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：地缘风险加剧，短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 6 | | 沥青：地缘局势升级，继续高位运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：反弹难持续，中期震荡市 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压，但短期低位不宜追空 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行，日内波动关注现货成交 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：地缘冲突加剧供应担忧，盘面风险攀升 | 25 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘窄幅调整，短期易涨难跌 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：相对 ...

| 业期现日报 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 纪元菲 20013180 | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 童美(通室SI5530星准) | 725 | 790 | -65 | -8.23% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 8700 | 8700 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 475 | 540 | -65 | -12.04% | | | 新疆99硅 | 7600 | 7600 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 975 | 1040 | -65 | -6.25% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2507-2508 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].