1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to below 150,000 tons. The TC this week remained flat compared with last week. The zinc mine output in China will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee still has room to rise. The demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the easing of tariff policies has limited boost to zinc downstream. The spot market's concern about smelter maintenance has eased, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the expectation of mine - end increment still exists, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and a short - position allocation strategy should be adopted [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures (2506, 2507, 2508) are presented. For example, the 2507 contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a decline of 0.89%, and the open interest increased by 1,439 to 123,007 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: After the news of smelter maintenance was digested, the market returned to the oscillation range, and the main 2507 contract showed a decline. The LME zinc inventory decreased significantly. The TC remained stable, and the zinc mine output is expected to increase seasonally. The demand side is in the transition period, and the spot premiums in three places have been lowered. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions**: On May 28, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc in different regions are reported. In the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,865 - 22,970 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, it was 22,875 - 22,980 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, it was 22,790 - 22,930 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, it was 22,790 - 22,965 yuan/ton. Different brands have different premium quotes relative to different contracts [8][9]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium quotes of different brands in different regions and trading periods are detailed. For example, in the Shanghai market, the second - trading - period premium of ordinary domestic zinc to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Ningbo market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2506 contract was 270 yuan/ton; in the Tianjin market, the premium of 0 zinc to the 2506 contract was 200 - 230 yuan/ton; in the Guangdong market, the premium of the mainstream brand to the 2507 contract was 445 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report mentions various data sources such as Wind and SMM, and shows figures related to the zinc market, including the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE's inter - month spread, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided text [13][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the market with poor operability and a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, same as aluminum, a short - term equilibrium state with low operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited trading floor operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, bearish with a driving force for price decline but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, short - term equilibrium with poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and trade frictions. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated with limited price movement. The SMM spot copper price was 78,515 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium dropped to 150 yuan, and the Guangdong premium remained at 220 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still below 1,000 yuan. Hold short positions in the 2507 contract [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined. The East China spot premium remained at 90 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 23,000 tons and 1,000 tons respectively compared to last Thursday. The demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction, but the inventory has smoothly decreased to a low level. Shanghai aluminum continues to test the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. The Guinea -停产 mining area has a long - term shutdown risk, but the impact is less likely to expand. The short - term spot is tight, but the supply elasticity is large after the industry profit recovers. The Guinea ore has support above $70, and it is not advisable to chase short after the futures discount widens [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc once soared due to the news of a possible shutdown of a smelter in Hechi and then回调. The SMM 0 zinc price was 22,730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the nearby contract. The spot in Guangdong is a bit tight, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The TC in June continued to rise. At the end of the peak season, the pressure of weakening domestic and foreign demand is large. Zinc is mainly a short - position allocation [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The traditional consumption peak season is coming to an end. The stainless - steel supply remains high, and the market transaction is still light. The inventory of nickel - iron increased by 900 tons to 29,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 974,000 tons. Short - position investors can consider entering the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin retraced its intraday gains and closed down. The spot tin price slightly rose to 264,800 yuan. Adopt a short - position strategy [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 132,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 600 tons to 41,000 tons, and the smelter inventory increased by 50 tons to 57,000 tons. The downstream restocking willingness is poor, and the upstream has passive restocking. The Australian ore price has fallen nearly 20% in the past two months. The mid - stream production is basically stable. Short - position investors can consider taking profits [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures increased positions significantly, and the price continued to decline, closing at 7,440 yuan/ton. The spot prices of all grades decreased. The supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and the demand - side performance is weak. The cost - side support is continuously weakening, and the silicon price is expected to continue to decline [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of its intraday losses and rebounded above the cost line of 35,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the SMM re - feed material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. In May, the supply - demand was nearly balanced but did not turn into a de - stocking trend. In June, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decline slightly. The price may have a short - term rebound but is expected to remain weak [11]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 卫立 从业资格：F3075802 交易咨询资格：Z0018108 联系方式：010-56711700 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 铜价保持震荡；LME 期铜涨 0.34%，收至 9519.5；沪铜主连跌 0.13%，收至 77820；COMEX 铜主连跌 0.1%，收至 4.6735。 【重要资讯】 1、美国 5 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值为 52.3，预期 50.8；5 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初 值为 52.3，预期 50.1。美国 30 年期国债收益率升至 5.15%，续刷 2023 年 10 月以来最 高水平。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 94.6%，降息 25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色与贵 | 铜 | 震 荡 偏 | 个基点的概率为 5.4%。美联储 7 月维持利率不变的概率为 73.1%，累计降息 25 个基点 的概率为 25.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 1.2%。(金十数 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.34%至 9519.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.12%至 | | | | | 77820 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月综合、制造业、服务业 | | | | | PMI 均好于预期，受关税政策缓解影响，美国本月的商业活动和产出预期均有所改 | | | | | 善，制造业和服务业呈现同步增长的态势，特别是新订单相对比较强劲。而欧元区 | 5 | | | | 月综合 PMI 从 4 月的 50.4 降至 49.5，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。美 | | | | | 欧经济体之间的对比，或有利于美元后期的企稳表现。特朗普减税案在众院涉险过 | | | | 铜 | 关，正提交参议院审议。美联储理事沃勒表示，减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税稳定 | | | | | 在 10%水平，美联储下半年将降息。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2300 吨至 166525 | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal futures market showed a significant decline on May 22, with aluminum oxide futures rising over 1% [1] - As of May 22, the main aluminum oxide futures increased by 1.26% to 3224.00 CNY/ton, while other metals like tin, zinc, and lead saw declines of 0.60%, 0.49%, and 0.74% respectively [1] - The opening prices for various non-ferrous metal futures on May 22 included aluminum oxide at 3230.00 CNY, lithium carbonate at 61200.00 CNY, and copper at 78010.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - On May 21, the warehouse receipts for non-ferrous metals showed a decrease in copper by 4520 tons, aluminum by 1625 tons, and lead by 3884 tons, while tin increased by 45 tons [3] - The aluminum oxide warehouse receipts decreased by 16826 tons, indicating a significant reduction in supply [3] - The basis data indicated that several metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon, experienced a "backwardation" phenomenon where spot prices were higher than futures prices [3] Group 3 - The basis and basis rate for various metals showed that copper had a basis of 403 CNY with a basis rate of 0.51%, while zinc had a basis of 359 CNY with a basis rate of 1.58% [4] - Aluminum had a basis of 56 CNY and a basis rate of 0.28%, while nickel showed a basis of 1118 CNY with a basis rate of 0.90% [4] - Lithium carbonate had a basis of 2146 CNY and a basis rate of 3.39%, indicating a strong spot market compared to futures [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market on May 20 showed a mixed trend with most metals declining, particularly industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, while alumina experienced a slight increase [1] Price Movements - Industrial silicon futures fell nearly 2% to 7980.00 CNY/ton, while lithium carbonate dropped 1.24% to 60640.00 CNY/ton [1] - Alumina futures rose by 1.39% to 3133.00 CNY/ton [1] - Nickel futures decreased by 0.50% to 123280.00 CNY/ton [1] Opening and Closing Prices - The opening and closing prices for various metals on May 20 were as follows: - Alumina: Opened at 3149.00 CNY, closed at 3090.00 CNY [1] - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 61160.00 CNY, closed at 61400.00 CNY [1] - Copper: Opened at 77980.00 CNY, closed at 77740.00 CNY [1] - International copper: Opened at 68950.00 CNY, closed at 68940.00 CNY [1] - Aluminum: Opened at 20050.00 CNY, closed at 20165.00 CNY [1] - Lead: Opened at 16860.00 CNY, closed at 16900.00 CNY [1] - Nickel: Opened at 123200.00 CNY, closed at 123900.00 CNY [1] - Zinc: Opened at 22415.00 CNY, closed at 22465.00 CNY [1] - Industrial silicon: Opened at 8065.00 CNY, closed at 8130.00 CNY [1] - Tin: Opened at 265600.00 CNY, closed at 263990.00 CNY [1] Inventory Changes - As of May 19, the inventory data for non-ferrous metals showed: - Copper futures inventory decreased by 1334 tons to 61913 tons [1] - Aluminum futures inventory decreased by 323 tons to 62497 tons [1] - Zinc futures inventory decreased by 474 tons to 1701 tons [1] - Tin futures inventory decreased by 64 tons to 8119 tons [1] - Lead futures inventory increased by 126 tons to 50047 tons [1] - Nickel futures inventory decreased by 30 tons to 23471 tons [1] - International copper futures inventory remained stable at 13744 tons [1] - Alumina futures inventory decreased by 1805 tons to 202930 tons [1] - Lithium carbonate futures inventory increased by 60 hands to 36684 hands [1] - Industrial silicon futures inventory decreased by 287 hands to 66097 hands [1] Basis Data - As of May 19, the basis data indicated a "backwardation" phenomenon for several metals: - Copper: Spot price at 78113.3 CNY, futures price at 77740 CNY, basis at 373 CNY, basis rate at 0.48% [1] - Zinc: Spot price at 22590 CNY, futures price at 22280 CNY, basis at 310 CNY, basis rate at 1.37% [1] - Aluminum: Spot price at 20290 CNY, futures price at 20165 CNY, basis at 125 CNY, basis rate at 0.62% [1] - Lead: Spot price at 16825 CNY, futures price at 16920 CNY, basis at -95 CNY, basis rate at -0.56% [1] - Nickel: Spot price at 125083 CNY, futures price at 123900 CNY, basis at 1183 CNY, basis rate at 0.95% [1] - Tin: Spot price at 265188 CNY, futures price at 263990 CNY, basis at 1198 CNY, basis rate at 0.45% [1] - Industrial silicon: Spot price at 9390 CNY, futures price at 8200 CNY, basis at 1190 CNY, basis rate at 12.67% [1] - Lithium carbonate: Spot price at 63600 CNY, futures price at 61400 CNY, basis at 2200 CNY, basis rate at 3.46% [1] - Polysilicon: Spot price at 38000 CNY, futures price at 37150 CNY, basis at 850 CNY, basis rate at 2.24% [1] - International copper: Spot price at 69235 CNY, futures price at 68940 CNY, basis at 295 CNY, basis rate at 0.43% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and the need to monitor US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the expected improvement in concentrate supply and potential recovery of smelting supply, the previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation, and factors like US tariff negotiations and exchange rates need to be watched [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Although the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, the better - than - expected result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation has a positive impact [1]. - Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term, as there are both positive and negative factors in the nickel market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continuous growth in household appliance production, and potential for increased copper demand in the automotive sector due to higher new - energy penetration. The narrowing decline in real - estate data is also a factor. Short - term copper price fluctuations are affected by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, inventory, and basis [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price data is unavailable. The domestic basis is 380 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 9,577 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 39.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 184,650 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 925 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Short - term zinc price fluctuations are influenced by US tariff negotiations, exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 195 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,725 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 22.38 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 165,175 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,875 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.07%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation result is better than expected, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose, but some manufacturers have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. Further decline in futures prices requires a continued weakening of bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers. The operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of reduced downstream orders. However, due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation result, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 60 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,489 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 0.39 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 397,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,025 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.16%. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is still tight, leading to rising nickel ore prices and cost transfer to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may increase local nickel product prices. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw - material inventory and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel - salt enterprises have a production - reduction expectation, which may lead to a moderate increase in nickel - salt prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. In the short term, nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend [1]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 2,160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 15,799 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 191.87 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 199,146 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 714 tons [2]. Lead - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 4.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 250,675 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 400 tons [2]. Tin - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is 750 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 32,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 127.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory is 2,745 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 30 tons [2].

| | 20250514申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝突破上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，日内维持强势运 行，午后再度增仓上行，逼近 7.9 万关口。近期铜价上行很大程度上 受益于中美关系缓和。产业低库存格局下，内外宏观氛围回暖，预 计铜价维持强势运行，上方关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。 沪铝 昨夜铝价增仓上行，突破 2 万关口，日内维持强势上行，但持仓 量持续下降。近期铝价上行很大程度上受益于中美关系缓和。低库存 格局下，宏观氛围回暖推动铝价反弹。短期期价突 ...