Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Copper Futures**: The copper price oscillated above 80,000 today with an increase in open interest. Macroeconomically, the US August PPI data was much lower than market expectations, easing wholesale inflation pressure and increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which is positive for copper prices. Industrially, the domestic industrial peak season is providing stronger support for futures prices. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro situation and the industry entering the peak season, the futures price is expected to be bullish. Technically, the futures price increased in volume and open interest, breaking through the 80,000 mark with strong upward momentum [5]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The aluminum price increased significantly in volume and open interest today, with the main futures price breaking through 20,900 and approaching the late - July high. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, SMM reported a concentrated pick - up of goods in LME warehouses, leading to regional supply tightness, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector. Technically, it is approaching the high since July, and technical pressure should be monitored [6]. - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom today, showing an overall oscillating trend. Macroeconomically, the increasing overseas interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the non - ferrous metal sector. Industrially, the domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory have been continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. With macro - level benefits and industrial weakness, the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to September 4 and a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to September 8 [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 11, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was in the range of 120,200 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][15][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum average premium and discount, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [23][29][25]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range as there are both bullish and bearish factors. Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%. The concentrate supply is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, and short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 79,780 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 10,013 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 56.61 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 155,275 tons, down 550 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output is growing strongly. The power industry has positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year with potential slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range, and investors should focus on the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 22,140 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,888 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 23.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 51,025 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 20,790 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,622 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 2.92 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 485,275 tons with no change [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 120,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,740 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 15,146 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 182.88 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 218,070 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 16,760 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 1,987 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 44.17 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 270,250 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 34,635 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 27.00 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 2,355 tons, up 75 tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The online seminar series aims to deepen the integration of production and finance in the non-ferrous metal futures and spot market, focusing on various metal futures products and their role in promoting high-quality industry development [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Industry Insights - The global and Chinese copper industry is experiencing positive trends, with key focus areas including industry structure, consumption growth, and regulatory requirements [2]. - Since 2020, the copper market has faced challenges with increased price volatility, necessitating the use of futures and options for risk management [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the copper futures market recorded a trading volume of 22.7 million contracts, with a transaction value of 879 million yuan, indicating growing participation from real enterprises [4][5]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is shifting towards green and low-carbon development, with a focus on expanding the consumer market [2]. - The launch of aluminum alloy futures in June 2025 fills a gap in the processing segment, enhancing the risk management framework for the aluminum industry [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the total trading volume of non-ferrous metal futures reached 197 million contracts, with a transaction value of 27.8 trillion yuan, reflecting strong market engagement [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are advised to utilize futures for hedging against price fluctuations, ensuring stable operations and profitability [3][6]. - Effective hedging strategies include setting target prices, adjusting hedge ratios dynamically, and locking in costs and sales prices through futures [5][6]. - The integration of futures in both procurement and sales processes is crucial for managing inventory risks and maintaining stable business operations [6].

姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，美元指数日内 下行，利好铜价。产业层面，SMM 报道，日内采购情绪进一步走弱， 进口货源仍未消化，持货商继续低价出货，沪铜现货升水进一步走 跌。短期关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡，持仓量有所上升。宏观层面，美元指数日内 走弱，带动有色板块偏强运行。产业层面，随着铝价上涨，下游接货 意愿较低。技术上，关注 20800 关口压力。 沪镍 今日镍价震荡上行 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and spot - futures arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals on September 5, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin, to help investors understand the price differences and profit situations in different trading modes [1][3] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage - **Copper**: The domestic spot price is 80080, the LME price is 9843, and the spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.13 with a profit of - 163.54 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price is 21990, the LME price is 2873, and the spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.60 with a profit of - 2715.72 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price is 20610, the LME price is 2600, and the spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.42 with a profit of - 1279.10 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price is 119900, the LME price is 15001, and the spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.21 with a profit of - 1709.79 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price is 16675, the LME price is 1946, and the spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85 with a profit of - 504.01 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 300, - 330, - 390, and - 420 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 502, 903, 1312, and 1721 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 110, - 110, - 105, and - 90 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 454, and 575 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 95, - 100, - 100, and - 135 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 40, 50, 75, and 70 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 15 and - 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 228 and 628 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 240 and 130 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 131 and 260 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 145 and 185 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 134 and 246 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai market (three - continuous) are 3.60, 3.87, 4.73, 0.93, 1.22, and 0.76 respectively, and in the LME market (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.82, 4.99, 0.91, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices declined with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 80,000 mark. The domestic market has cooled significantly, with obvious capital outflows in both the equity and commodity markets. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" arrive, industrial support will strengthen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with the position volume continuously decreasing. The domestic market has cooled, and there are capital outflows in the equity and commodity markets. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory is slowly decreasing. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average when the aluminum price drops [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices showed a downward trend today, with a slight decrease in the position volume. Non - ferrous metals generally declined at the macro level. At the industrial level, the impact of the demonstration in Indonesia has been digested by the market. In the short term, the weakening macro environment and the digestion of industrial disturbances have led to the decline of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4% compared with the previous week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points. Currently, the industry has not shown signs of a peak season. Weak demand and high copper prices are intertwined, and both the operating rate and orders continue to decline [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美国 7 月 JOLTS 就业人数录得 718.1 万人，低于市场 | | | 预期 738.2 万人和前值 743.7 万人，低靡的就业数据继续强化了 9 月降息预期。美联储 | | | 理事沃勒表示未来 3 到 6 个月可多次降息。基本面方面，"金九银十"是国内传统消费 | | 铜 | 旺季，在国内进口连续不及预期及废铜政策不明朗下开工率偏低下，精铜消费有望得 | | | 到较大提振，关注国内去库速度。海外部分国家债市的抛售潮及金价的异动使得市场 | | | 避险情绪走高，铜价表现偏谨慎，但基本面继续改善下，应仍偏乐观看待，重心有望继 | | | 续抬升，但也需要注意美衰退预期及高铜价对下游需求也形成制约，价格上行高度或 | | | 受限。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2959 元/吨，跌幅 2.15%，持仓增仓 13870 手至 26.2 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2510 收于 20725 元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of positive and negative factors. The supply of concentrates is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power industry, PV installation, auto production and sales show positive growth, while the growth of home appliance output slows and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous increase in smelting output. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors such as inventory increase and mixed downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Market Performance**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 9,981 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 69.58 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 158,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry maintains positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,866 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 20.44 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 55,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising overall, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets increased. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 5.70 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 481,050 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 122,220 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,140 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 15,232 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 185.03 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 209,844 tons, with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 43.10 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 259,550 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 273,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,110 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 34,735 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 140.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 2,155 tons, with a daily increase of 145 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended, ★★★ [1] - Silver: Long position recommended, ★★ [1] - Copper: Hold long positions, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bearish, ★ [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Multiple risk factors have pushed gold to a new all - time high. Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] - Copper: It has broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][5] - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment are positive, but domestic demand is weak, inventory is piling up, and there is a policy vacuum. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases [1][8] - Aluminum: As the peak season approaches, the price has rebounded, but there are still constraints on the supply and demand side [9][11] - Nickel: Supply pressure persists, and the price rebounds and then falls [13][15] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for a new driving force, and the price is in a wide - range shock [17][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff disputes, and doubts about the Fed's independence have boosted gold, with foreign gold hitting a new all - time high [2] Basic Logic - US data has weakened, with a decline in construction spending and a contraction in the manufacturing index. There is a stand - off between the White House and the Fed, and Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, etc. [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 800 in the short - term, and pay attention to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9530. Long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has strengthened and broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark, and London copper has reached the $10,000 mark [5] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up, and domestic inventory is at a relatively low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can try long positions on pullbacks. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [6] Zinc Market Review - London zinc has strengthened, and Shanghai zinc has followed slightly [8] Industry Logic - Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, processing fees are rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. Domestic inventory is piling up, and overseas inventory is decreasing [8] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see in the short - term, and sell on rallies in the long - term [8] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price has rebounded, while alumina is relatively weak [10] Industry Logic - There are obvious expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and inventory is piling up. Alumina supply is abundant, and demand is expected to be loose in the short - term [11] Strategy Recommendation - Try long positions on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rate [12] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price has rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel has also rebounded [14] Industry Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. Domestic refined nickel supply is excessive, and stainless steel inventory is gradually decreasing [15] Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [16] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 4% [18] Industry Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains high, and demand is picking up, with inventory declining for three consecutive weeks [19] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize in the range of [71300 - 74500] [20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 3, 2025, aiming to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 80140, LME price is 9818, and the ratio is 8.15; March price in China is 79600, LME price is 9888, and the ratio is 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.13, with a profit of - 38.94, and the profit for spot export is - 423.72 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22150, LME price is 2872, and the ratio is 7.71; March price in China is 22315, LME price is 2852, and the ratio is 5.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.60, with a profit of - 2542.17 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20710, LME price is 2624, and the ratio is 7.89; March price in China is 20710, LME price is 2619, and the ratio is 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.41, with a profit of - 1369.16 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 122000, LME price is 15185, and the ratio is 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.20, with a profit of - 1683.11 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16650, LME price is 1953, and the ratio is 8.56; March price in China is 16865, LME price is 1996, and the ratio is 11.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.85, with a profit of - 555.67 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 110, - 170, - 180, and - 220 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1715 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 175, 165, 165, and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 453, and 573 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 60, 50, 35, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 330, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 40, 55, 55, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 690, - 490, - 340, and - 190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 640, and the theoretical spread is 5672 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 305 and - 415 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 205 and 633 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 0 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 147 and 276 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 160 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 144 and 255 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.57, 3.84, 4.72, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.81, 5.01, 0.91, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].