1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The steel market is mainly driven by domestic factors. After the Spring Festival, the rebar fundamentals remain weak with continuous inventory accumulation, pressuring steel prices. However, policy expectations are strengthening. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [5] - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0%, and the volume and open interest decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has recovered to some extent, but concerns remain. With high inventory and high supply, the fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Policy expectations are positive. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [5] - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, iron ore demand has improved, but the growth space is limited, while supply remains high, and the ore fundamentals are weak, pressuring ore prices. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In February, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points. All five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI were below the critical point. [7] - According to Mysteel's incomplete statistics, as of March 4, five major construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in January 2026, with a total of about 602.9 billion yuan. China State Construction's new contract amount in January was 399.5 billion yuan, with a 1.6% year - on - year increase in construction business. The housing construction business reached 274.3 billion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year increase, and the real estate business contract sales were 15.7 billion yuan, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [8] - Brazil's Fomento do Brasil Mineração won a 15 - year lease contract for the North Pier of the Port of Natal. The port is expected to start iron ore export in the second half of 2028. It is strategically located close to Europe and has an area of about 396,000 square meters with multiple berths. [9] 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,160 yuan, Tianjin was 3,120 yuan, and the national average was 3,299 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan, Tianjin was 3,140 yuan, and the national average was 3,266 yuan, with the national average down 2 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,910 yuan, unchanged. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,160 yuan, unchanged. - PB powder: The price in Shandong ports was 747 yuan, down 3 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate: The price was 757 yuan, unchanged. - Ocean freight (Australia): 10.95 yuan, up 0.53 yuan; (Brazil) 24.56 yuan, up 0.63 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): 99.62 yuan, down 0.45 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): 100.55 yuan, up 0.20 yuan. [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar | - | 3,071 | 0.13 | 3,085 | 3,061 | 710,699 | - 77,573 | 1,839,511 | - 42,377 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,212 | 0.00 | 3,229 | 3,207 | 280,903 | - 88,862 | 1,435,635 | - 16,252 | | Iron ore | - | 752.0 | 0.40 | 753.0 | 745.0 | 230,305 | - 9,253 | 525,573 | - 7,288 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change and total inventory of steel mills + social inventory). - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent electric furnace steel mill operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 94 - independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit situation. [14] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand have changed. Construction steel mill production weakened, with weekly output down 52,800 tons. Inventory is high, so supply - side benefits are limited. Demand is weak, with weekly apparent demand still at a low level. Policy expectations are strengthening due to upcoming major meetings. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to domestic policies. [38] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mill production stabilized, with weekly output down 0.20 tons. Inventory is accumulating at a high level, and supply pressure is large. Demand has recovered, but there are concerns. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance. [38] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore terminal consumption is rising. However, the growth space is limited due to accumulated industrial contradictions in the steel market. Supply is increasing as port arrivals are expected to rise. Policy expectations are strong. It is expected that ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill复产. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term (half - month horizon), with the marginal release of high - valuation pressures and rising policy - speculation expectations ahead of key meetings, iron ore futures prices have the potential for a phased rebound, but it's difficult to break above the previous high of 830 RMB/t, and the upward resistance near the 20 - day moving average around 770 RMB/t should be focused on [1][4][37][43][63]. - In the medium term (two - month horizon), the logic will return to fundamentals, and the main market theme will shift from expectation - driven to reality verification. Selling on rallies is a more cost - effective strategy as the structural contradiction of high supply and high inventory is difficult to alleviate and may intensify, putting downward pressure on ore prices. To achieve de - stocking by forcing supply reductions, the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t [2][13][38][40][63][65]. - In the medium to long term (May to September), the market will enter a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing, including overseas steel demand recovery, the effectiveness of the negative feedback mechanism, and the actual pace of new overseas capacity commissioning. If prices drop to absolute lows in the first half of the year, far - month contracts offer good value for buying on dips [3][5][39][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Easing Valuation Pressures May Prompt A Pre - Meeting Tactical Rebound - Although fundamentals are weakening, iron ore prices have corrected by about 9% from their peak this year, releasing high - valuation risks. Global shipments have declined month - on - month, and early selling pressure has largely materialized, weakening short - term downward momentum [11]. - With major meetings in early March, there is room for policy - driven market speculation. Given the partial release of valuation risks, ongoing hot metal output recovery, and weather disruptions, iron ore futures are likely to have a tactical rebound, but breaking above the previous high will be challenging [12]. 3.2 Returning to Fundamentals: Medium - Term Sell - on - Rally Strategy Unchanged 3.2.1 Supply: Elevated Non - Mainstream Shipments to Sustain High Supply Pressure - Fewer weather disruptions in Australia, incremental volumes from the Onslow project, and sustained production from non - mainstream miners have pushed the year - on - year growth of cumulative iron ore shipments to a multi - year high. As of February 20, global cumulative iron ore shipments increased by 29.66 Mt YoY, with non - mainstream miners contributing over half of the actual supply growth. If iron ore prices hold, non - mainstream shipments are likely to stay elevated, leading to continuous high supply pressure [14][15][44]. 3.2.2 Demand: Hot Metal Resumption Trails Pre - Holiday Estimates, Short - Term Upside Drive Limited - On the demand side, iron ore demand is analyzed from domestic hot metal production and global steel and iron ore demand. Hot metal production is expected to recover seasonally, but end - user demand for finished steel is flat, and high inventories need time to digest, so short - term hot metal recovery may fall short of pre - holiday expectations, making it difficult to drive prices up [20][51]. - In the long term, global steel consumption is projected to grow at about 1.25%, but this needs long - term data verification. If overseas steel demand recovers, the oversupply pressure on iron ore may ease marginally by mid - year, presenting a good opportunity to build long positions in far - month contracts on dips [21][50][54]. 3.2.3 Inventory: Port Stocks at Historic Highs; De - stocking Pressure Remains - Current 45 - port iron ore inventories have reached the highest level since 2016. Since 2016, the iron ore market has experienced three major accumulation cycles and two de - stocking cycles [25][57]. - The current significant inventory accumulation is due to continuous supply expansion from overseas mines, especially non - mainstream ones. The market may evolve in three ways: prices forcing supply reductions, macro stimulus driving demand recovery, or industry chain profit reshaping and high - inventory normalization. The report leans towards the first path [31][61][62]. 3.3 Conclusion - Short - term: With high - valuation pressure release and policy - speculation expectations, there is a potential for a phased rebound, but it's hard to break above the previous high, and attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average resistance [37][63]. - Medium - term: The logic returns to fundamentals, and selling on rallies is a better strategy as the high - supply and high - inventory contradiction is difficult to alleviate, and the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t for de - stocking [38][63]. - Medium - to long - term: The market enters a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing. If prices drop to lows, far - month contracts are good for buying on dips [39][64]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short i2605 on rallies / short hedge on rallies. - Logic: After key meetings, the market enters a transition window. If positive expectations fall short, the main trading theme will return to industry reality. The high - supply and high - inventory contradiction puts downward pressure on ore prices. Maintaining a short - on - rally approach has a higher risk - reward ratio. - For investors with steady risk preferences, buying put options on rallies can control drawdown risks as option premium costs are relatively low [40][41][65].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Asian Market Performance**: The Asian markets experienced a collective decline due to heightened geopolitical tensions impacting investor sentiment. The materials and commodities sectors underperformed, primarily due to profit-taking by investors, while oil-related stocks continued to rise, and defense sector performance was mixed [1][1]. - **Defensive Sector Rotation**: A defensive sector rotation was observed across Asia, with Singapore's market showing strong performance led by the banking sector. In Hong Kong, the stocks that rose were mainly in the real estate, finance, and telecommunications sectors [1][1]. Country-Specific Insights Australia - **ASX200 Index**: The Australian ASX200 index fell by 1.3%, with mining stocks significantly dragging down the overall performance, reflecting the broader trend in the Asia-Pacific region amid ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East [1][1]. Taiwan - **TAIEX Index**: The Taiwan Weighted Index (TAIEX) dropped by 2.2%, with major weighted stocks leading the decline, including TSMC down by 2%, Delta Electronics down by 6%, and MediaTek down by 4.5%. Smaller stocks experienced even greater declines, with memory-related stocks hitting or nearing their daily limits [2][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: Despite the sell-off, there was no panic selling from foreign investors, attributed to healthy and temporary deleveraging operations. Observations indicated a dual flow of smart money, with both bargain hunting and profit-taking activities occurring [2][2]. South Korea - **KOSPI Index**: The South Korean KOSPI index fell by 5.3%, primarily due to weakness in the memory sector, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both down by 9%. The market's risk-averse sentiment was exacerbated by foreign selling pressure [3][3]. - **Defense Sector Performance**: Funds shifted from the semiconductor sector to defense stocks, which performed relatively well. The recent geopolitical developments are expected to accelerate key orders for defense companies like Rotem and Hanwha [3][3]. Japan - **Nikkei Index**: The Nikkei index declined by 3.03%, aligning with the overall regional downturn. A basket of heavily shorted stocks outperformed the market, indicating that the decline was more driven by long positions unwinding rather than aggressive short selling [3][3]. - **Consumer Stocks**: Domestic consumer stocks showed weakness, likely driven by inflation concerns, particularly with the potential rise in oil prices. Unlike other Asian markets, Japanese defense stocks underperformed, likely due to profit-taking [4][4]. Notable Stock Movements - **Life360**: The stock plummeted by 17%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2022. Conversely, Magellan's stock rose by 22% following the announcement of its acquisition plan for Barrenjoey [2][2]. - **Memory Stocks**: Significant declines were noted in memory stocks, with Nanya Technology down by 10%, Winbond down by 9.6%, and others experiencing similar drops [2][2]. Conclusion The overall sentiment in the Asian markets is cautious, driven by geopolitical tensions and sector-specific dynamics. Defensive sectors are gaining traction, while technology and consumer stocks are facing headwinds. The market is currently navigating through a phase of profit-taking and sector rotation, with varying performances across different countries in the region.

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) opened down 5.08%, priced at 2.280 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the mining ETF saw varied performance: Zijin Mining down 2.99%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.00%, Northern Rare Earth down 3.29%, and others [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., with a return of 139.95% since its inception on October 19, 2022, and a 5.27% return over the past month [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall situation of the black building materials market is complex, affected by factors such as market demand, supply - demand relationship, and macro - expectations. Each variety has its own characteristics and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market showed an upward trend in the disk yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the inventory of building materials increased by 50.03% month - on - month to 572.97 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40.90% month - on - month to 315.35 million tons. The spot trading of steel is in the seasonal off - season [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price movement range is limited, following the raw material price fluctuations. The production and sales of strip steel have improved this week, and the demand for sheet metal is expected to further improve, but the high intermediate inventory suppresses the price [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price was strong yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 327.44%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73.86%. The global iron ore shipment volume was stable, with a total of 3.341 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with a total of 2.147 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Currently, the supply of iron ore is strong while the demand is weak, and the inventory has been at a high level for a long time, deepening the fundamental contradictions. Although steel mills have plans to resume production, the high supply and inventory still suppress the price. The high - price iron ore shipments remain high, and low prices can suppress the marginal supply of non - mainstream mines, gradually restoring the supply - demand balance. In the short term, the iron ore price still faces downward pressure [4]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures fluctuated yesterday. The port coke spot market was stable, and the domestic trade spot market had a general trading atmosphere. The coal mines had great pressure to sell, and the prices generally decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1000 - 1010 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the local supply has recovered quickly, the rigid demand of coking enterprises is stable, but they mainly consume raw material inventory, and the de - stocking pattern continues, with weak cost support. For coke, independent coking enterprises continue to accumulate inventory, which is at a medium - high level, and the total inventory has slightly increased, increasing the expectation of spot price cuts [7]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to show a volatile trend, and there are no strategies for inter - period and inter - variety [8]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the demand has recovered recently due to the resumption of work of many downstream enterprises. Most coal mines have queues of trucks for hauling, and the overall coal price has increased. In the port area, affected by the limited domestic resource transfer and the increase in upstream quotations, the ports are generally optimistic about the future, with high quotations. Some traders have a stronger willingness to sell for profit, but the actual transactions are few due to the high quotations. Currently, domestic resources are tight, and imports are also tense, providing short - term support for coal prices. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern is still volatile. Indonesian miners have few offers, and the market quotations and tender prices have increased significantly, but domestic tenders are cautious [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the demand has gradually recovered, leading to a strong coal price. Affected by the supply problems in the import market, the domestic coal price has continued to rise slightly. In the short term, the coal price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but it will enter the off - season in March, and in the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are provided [10].

Core Viewpoint - Oppenheimer analysts highlight bullish momentum across multiple sectors as March unfolds, indicating potential trading opportunities, especially when the S&P 500 index remains above its 200-day moving average [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Historical data shows that March market returns typically outperform February, with the S&P 500 index averaging a 1.2% increase since 1950 under the current technical conditions, achieving a 66% probability of rising [3] - The S&P 500 index is currently above the support level of 6520 points, maintaining an upward trend, with the past four months of consolidation alleviating previous overbought pressures [3] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts suggest shifting focus from mega-cap stocks to broader market opportunities, emphasizing the importance of embracing market breadth rather than fixating on market capitalization strength [3] - Despite the "seven giants" dragging down the S&P 500 since last October, momentum factors remain resilient, with a strong emphasis on avoiding weak sectors while capturing strong stocks [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Insights - Within the technology sector, a clear divergence is observed between software stocks and equal-weighted tech stocks, with software stocks negatively impacting overall tech performance since a downgrade in mid-January [3] - Excluding software stocks, the overall momentum score for the tech sector improved significantly from -4% to +6% [3] Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Oppenheimer recommends "buy" ratings for several stocks in the technology sector, including Apple (AAPL.US), TE Connectivity (TEL.US), Jabil (JBL.US), and MongoDB (MDB.US) [4] - In the biotech sector, Oppenheimer identifies a potential turning point after a "lost decade," with biotech equal-weight ETFs recovering their four-year moving average for the first time since June 2021 [4] - The metals and mining sector has completed a decade-long bottoming and breakout pattern, with recommended stocks including Alcoa (AA.US), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US), MP Materials (MP.US), and Century Aluminum (CENX.US) [4] Group 5: Energy Sector Analysis - The energy sector has shown notable performance, with momentum scores rising from 0% to +4%, marking one of the largest monthly increases [4] - The SPDR ETF for the energy sector has broken through a technical resistance level that has persisted since 2014, indicating a long-term bottom is being established [4] - Recommended energy stocks include Baker Hughes (BKR.US), TechnipFMC (FTI.US), Targa Resources (TRGP.US), and Valero Energy (VLO.US) [5]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The increase in copper inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract yesterday was 103,850, with a daily decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 102,280, with a decline of 1.51%. The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk yesterday was 13,085, with a decline of 1.59% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index yesterday was 326,580, an increase of 20,754 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 574,994, a decrease of 3,504. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 26,107, an increase of 847, and the open interest was 312,000, a decrease of 3,474 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai copper yesterday was 295,881, an increase of 5,287 compared to the previous day. The inventory of LME copper was 257,675, an increase of 3,975, and the注销仓单 ratio was 4.96%, a decrease of 0.23% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 49.47, an increase of 20.06 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 91,100, an increase of 800 compared to the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 190, an increase of 70 compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Trump stated that he will not stop until the goal is achieved and does not rule out sending US ground troops to Iran "if necessary". The US ISM manufacturing index in February expanded for two consecutive months, and the price index soared to a nearly four - year high. The conflict with Iran may add inflationary pressure [1] - **Industry News**: Hudbay Minerals has received approval from the British Columbia provincial government in Canada to advance the three - phase expansion project of its Copper Mountain mine, extending the mine's operating life to 2040. Japan's imports of copper and copper alloys in January were 9,895 tons, a 13.51% year - on - year increase and a 12.75% month - on - month decrease. Chile's copper production in January decreased by 3% year - on - year to 413,712 tons [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) has provided detailed disclosures regarding the resource and reserve data of all its owned mines in its annual report [1] Group 2 - The company encourages investors to refer to its annual report for comprehensive information on resource and reserve data [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading operability [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with unclear short - term trend and low trading operability [1] - Platinum: Suggest to lay out long positions at low levels with high safety margins [2] - Palladium: Participate by buying at low prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term gold market fluctuations are mainly due to emotional swings after the start of the US - Iran war. It is recommended to take profits for long positions after the price rises. The medium - term impact will be determined by the war's development [1] - If the US and Israel achieve an overwhelming victory and regime change in Iran, gold may face a downward risk. If Iran conducts a strong retaliation and the war expands, gold prices will remain high but with more frequent fluctuations [1] - In the long run, factors such as the economic outlook after the oil price increase, Fed policies, Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, global trade situation, and US mid - term elections need to be concerned [1] - This week, attention should be paid to the war progress and the impact of important data such as US non - farm payrolls on Fed policy expectations [1] - Platinum has rebounded after the festival, and the platinum - palladium price difference has widened, but the further widening space is limited. The financial premium space of platinum and palladium may narrow, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low levels [2] - Palladium's supply - side narrative is strengthening, its demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are improving. It is advisable to buy at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iran Situation - Trump said that the new Iranian leadership hopes to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue [3] - Trump claimed to have killed 48 Iranian leaders and basically destroyed the Iranian naval headquarters, and the US military said it destroyed the Revolutionary Guard headquarters [3] - An Iranian interim leadership committee has been established, with the Iranian president as one of the main members [3] - The Iranian foreign minister said Iran is open to efforts to ease tensions, and new leader elections may be seen in the next few days [3] - The Israeli prime minister said the strike on Iran will be strengthened in the next few days [3] - Trump said the military action against Iran may last for 4 weeks [3] Middle - East Shipping Throat - There are a large number of oil tankers stranded outside the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Many shipping companies may detour around the Cape of Good Hope, and shipping costs may rise [3]