1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with some indicators improving and others weakening. Gold prices reach new highs, while oil prices decline due to potential supply increases. The bond market has complex dynamics, and the stock market is segmented. [1][4][9] - The paper industry's prices are rising due to raw material cost increases, and the coal - coking - steel - mining market is expected to have a positive trend in September. [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7%. [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year. [1] - In July 2025, social financing scale increment was 11320 billion yuan, down from 42251 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 7707 billion yuan last year. [1] - In July 2025, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth accelerated compared to the previous month and last year, while M0 growth slowed slightly. [1] - In July 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% last year. PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% last year. [1] - In July 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% last year. Social consumer goods retail cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% last year. [1] - In July 2025, export and import year - on - year growth were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, both showing an upward trend compared to the previous month. [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin levels and price limit ranges for multiple gold and silver contracts. [2] - The London Metal Exchange postponed its Asian opening on a Wednesday by 90 minutes without stating a reason. [2] - Major paper mills announced price increases in early September due to rising raw material costs, and the industry's supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year. [2] - China imposed anti - dumping duties on certain optical fibers imported from the US, with different tax rates for different companies. [3] - China's August S&P Global services PMI was 53, and the composite PMI was 51.9, both higher than the previous month. [3] Metals - Gold prices reached new highs on September 3, 2025, with London Gold Spot and COMEX Gold hitting record levels, and domestic gold prices also rising. [4] - The World Gold Council is seeking to introduce digital gold, which may transform the London gold market. [5] - Nickel and tin inventories increased on September 2, 2025, while lead and zinc inventories decreased. [6] - Citi adjusted its price forecasts for silver, aluminum, and copper, expressing optimism about copper prices. [6] Coal - Coking - Steel - Mining - Since July 2025, steel prices have recovered, and upstream coking coal and coke prices have risen significantly. The steel market in September may see an upward trend. [7] - Shaanxi has made achievements in mineral exploration during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, exceeding the national targets. [8] - The EU is working on new steel and aluminum safeguard measures after 2026. [8] Energy and Chemicals - On September 3, 2025, international oil prices declined due to potential OPEC+ production increases, an unexpected increase in US API crude inventories, and reduced geopolitical concerns. [9] - OPEC's August oil production increased by 400,000 barrels per day. [10] - Russia's September oil exports from western ports are expected to decline by 6% compared to August. [10] - Colombia's July oil production decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. [10] - Citi slightly lowered its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast. [10] Agricultural Products - India's August soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month, while palm oil imports increased by 16%. [11] - Argentina's August agricultural product export revenue decreased by 25% year - on - year. [11] - Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 10.22% month - on - month. [12] Financial News Open Market - On September 3, 2025, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan. [13] Key News - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed issues related to the bond market and aims to promote its stable development. [14] - Since the implementation of the "science and technology board" policy in the bond market, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has accelerated, with a total issuance scale exceeding 1.02 trillion yuan since May. [14] - Tianjin's first private technology enterprise science and technology innovation bond was successfully issued. [14] - The China - SCO Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin. [15] - 12 provinces have raised their minimum wage standards this year, and all 31 provinces' highest - grade monthly minimum wage standards exceed 2000 yuan. [16] - Shanghai's "Six Measures" for the property market have had a positive initial impact, and the market is expected to recover. [16] - In 2024, the total issuance of green and sustainable debt in Hong Kong reached 84.4 billion US dollars, and the HKMA is researching the application of tokenization technology in sustainable finance. [17] - The global long - term treasury bond sell - off intensifies, with yields rising in many countries. [17] - There were corporate events such as leadership changes, name changes, and bond redemptions in the corporate bond market. [18] - Some companies' credit ratings were confirmed or adjusted by international rating agencies. [18] Bond Market Review - The bond market was positive on September 3, 2025, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling, and treasury bond futures rising. [19] - The currency market interest rates showed mixed trends, and some short - term Shibor rates reached new lows. [20] - The winning bid yields and multiples of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced. [21] - Repurchase fixed - rate and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and European and US bond yields generally declined. [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on September 3, 2025, while the RMB central parity rate was depreciated. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose. [23] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the yields and credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds are at relatively high levels since 2021, and the long - end US bond yields may rise. [24] - Huatai Fixed Income reports that "fixed income +" products have experienced large - scale redemptions, affecting the stock - bond relationship. [25] - Xingzheng Fixed Income also points out that the PMI in August shows some improvements, but the bond market may be affected by the equity market. [25] Stock Market - The A - share market was segmented on September 3, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index falling. The market turnover decreased. [27] - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with financial and consumer sectors falling and pharmaceutical stocks rising. Southbound funds had a large - scale net inflow, and Alibaba was significantly added. [28] - Southbound funds' net inflow to the Hong Kong stock market reached a record high this year, and most Hong Kong - Stock Connect stocks' shareholdings increased. [28] - 41 brokerages have completed their September golden stock recommendations, and they are generally optimistic about the A - share market. [28] - Since August, institutions have actively investigated North Exchange listed companies. [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the commodity and bond markets, particularly the surge in gold and silver prices, driven by factors such as the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and the diminishing hedging function of long-term government bonds [1][3][5]. - Gold has recently broken the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, while silver has surpassed $40, marking a 14-year peak [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets, including the U.S., U.K., and France, reaching multi-year highs, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the existing financial system [4][5]. Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate is approaching 3%, and the potential for a significant economic impact from this inflation may not be fully realized until the fourth quarter [3]. - The U.K.'s current deficit as a percentage of GDP is comparable to historical periods of significant upheaval, such as the French Revolution [6]. - The article suggests that as governments accumulate excessive debt and lose the trust of major debt buyers, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable asset that does not depend on government promises [8]. Group 3 - The articles indicate that September is historically a poor month for stock and bond markets, with global government bonds over ten years showing a median decline of 2% in September over the past decade [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of European stocks remains strong, supported by sectors such as luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, and green energy, which possess significant pricing power and competitive advantages [19][20]. - The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is strategically reallocating its investments, betting on European stocks outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade based on valuation assessments [21].

Core Viewpoint - Accelerating the high-level institutional opening of China's capital market is essential for achieving high-quality development, emphasizing that "post-border rules are more important than border opening" [3][4][5]. Group 1: Significance of Institutional Opening - Institutional opening represents a new phase of China's opening-up, differing significantly from traditional commodity and factor flow openings [8][9]. - High-level institutional opening is necessary for building a socialist market economy, enhancing resource allocation efficiency, and supporting high-quality economic development [11]. - It is crucial for advancing the internationalization of the RMB and mitigating external shocks, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors [12]. Group 2: Principles for Advancing Institutional Opening - The opening should follow the principles of "taking the initiative, facing international standards, being rooted in local conditions, focusing on market needs, promoting overall progress, and prioritizing safety" [14][13]. - Emphasizing the importance of understanding local conditions to avoid the pitfalls of blindly adopting foreign systems [17][18]. - The process should be market-driven, ensuring that there is demand, institutional capability, and regulatory oversight [19]. Group 3: Pathways for Stock Market Opening - The stock market is a key area for institutional opening, requiring improvements in issuance, trading, investment, and securities firms [22][23]. - Support for Chinese companies to list abroad and for foreign companies to list in China is essential for internationalization [24][25]. - Enhancements in the registration system and merger and acquisition processes are necessary to facilitate market activity [26][27]. Group 4: Pathways for Bond Market Opening - The bond market requires improvements in issuance, investment, and investor protection mechanisms [37][38]. - Enhancing the information disclosure mechanism and rating system is vital for increasing foreign investor confidence [39][40]. - Expanding the channels for foreign investment in RMB bonds and improving the legal framework for bondholder meetings and trustee management is necessary [43][44]. Group 5: Risk Prevention in Institutional Opening - The process of institutional opening must address risks such as institutional mismatch, information leakage, external shocks, malicious attacks, and financial sanctions [47][48]. - Emphasizing the importance of national security and the need for robust monitoring and regulatory frameworks to mitigate these risks [50][51][52]. - Developing a comprehensive response plan to potential financial attacks and enhancing the resilience of the financial system against sanctions is crucial [53][54]. Group 6: Conclusion - The high-level institutional opening of the capital market is vital for supporting economic development and enhancing market stability and competitiveness [56][57]. - A systematic approach is required to identify and address institutional weaknesses while ensuring that safety is prioritized throughout the opening process [58].

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant increase in equity assets while bond market sentiment was suppressed, leading to a steepening yield curve with long-term yields rising sharply [1] - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields were recorded at 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of -1.53, 6.12, 13.35, and 19.25 basis points compared to the end of July [1] - The "stock-bond" effect has shifted to a "double bull" market due to rising interest rate cut expectations and improved economic conditions, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.8% [1] Group 2 - The funding environment remained reasonably ample, with short-term performance expected to be relatively stable as the central bank continued to support liquidity [2] - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation in August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and maintained flexible short-term liquidity tools [2] - Government bond issuance has progressed rapidly, with net issuance of 4.67 trillion yuan in national bonds and 5.7 trillion yuan in local bonds by the end of August, leading to a decrease in net financing impact on the funding environment [2] Group 3 - The stock market showed strong performance driven by low interest rates and a significant inflow of funds, with a notable increase in financing balances and daily trading volumes [3] - The "anti-involution" narrative has gained traction, with the PMI raw material purchase price index rising to 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics [3] - The bond market's long-end is under pressure due to the steepening yield curve and improved trading sentiment, suggesting a return to a range-bound trend in the absence of significant changes in funding and economic fundamentals [3]

Market Overview - US stock market was closed on September 1 due to Labor Day holiday [1] - European major indices saw slight increases, with Germany's DAX up 0.57%, France's CAC40 up 0.05%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.1% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.84% at $3545.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.46% at $41.725 per ounce [1] - US crude oil main contract increased by 0.94% to $64.61 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract rose by 1.01% to $68.16 per barrel [1] Currency and Metal Markets - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell by 0.18% to 97.68, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar decreased by 131 basis points to 7.1351 [1] - Most London base metals saw price increases, with LME lead up 0.80% at $2007.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.50% at $2833.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.35% at $15475.00 per ton; however, LME copper fell by 0.27% to $9875.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - Eurozone bond yields generally increased, with the UK 10-year government bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.750%, France's by 2.5 basis points to 3.534%, Germany's by 2.2 basis points to 2.744%, Italy's by 2.2 basis points to 3.606%, and Spain's by 2.1 basis points to 3.349% [1]

Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The Chinese Yuan has rapidly appreciated, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 3.0% to $3,475.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver surged by 6.7% to $40.3 per ounce [1][40]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, while the French CAC40 dropped by 3.3%. In contrast, emerging market indices showed mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA rising by 2.5% [1][2]. - The WTI crude oil price increased by 0.5% to $64.0 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 0.6% to $68.1 per barrel [34][35]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, aligning with market expectations. The core PCE index rose by 2.9% year-on-year [79]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 23 were reported at 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000 [82]. - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.14 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.31 trillion and tax revenues of $3.29 trillion [51]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Events - French Prime Minister Borne announced a trust vote on September 8 to push through a €44 billion austerity plan, causing significant market concerns and leading to a drop in the CAC 40 index [47]. - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to exacerbate volatility in oil prices and disrupt global inflation control efforts [87]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which has led to a temporary decline in U.S. stock and bond rates. Cook has filed for a temporary injunction to remain in her position [62][71]. - Fed officials, including Waller, expressed support for a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September, with expectations for further cuts in the following months [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains an "Overweight" stance on Chinese stocks; Standard Chartered Bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 H2 Global Market Outlook" [38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic sentiment generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing month - on - month increases [2][20] - The overseas business of futures companies is accelerating development, driven by policy support and the concentrated overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises [3] - The bond market is expected to have limited adjustment space and may continue to consolidate in the short term [26] - The A - share market may show a phased shock consolidation feature in September, with market hotspots in a rotation state [38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][20] - In July 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 5.6% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, showing an upward trend [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Personal consumer loan interest subsidies will be available from September 1st, with multiple banks promoting related products [2] - Many domestic commodity futures showed inventory changes on August 29th, with some increasing and some decreasing [4][5] - China and the US held economic and trade talks, emphasizing cooperation and the management of differences [6] 3.2.2 Metals - As of mid - August 2025, the price of electrolytic copper increased by 0.94% month - on - month [7] - London's basic metals generally rose on August 29th, with domestic copper demand expected to improve [7] - International precious metal futures generally closed higher due to weak US economic data [8] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In H1 2025, the coking industry faced difficulties, with most listed coke companies reporting losses [9] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most coal products increased, while the price of rebar decreased slightly [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China is promoting policies to support private enterprises in major projects and consumer replacement [11][12] - China has achieved large - scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil, with production hitting a record high [12] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most oil and gas products decreased [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most agricultural products increased [14][15] - China is strengthening the management of crop varieties and protecting permanent basic farmland [15] - A batch of Russian rapeseed oil was imported into Chengdu, marking a new breakthrough in international grain and oil trade [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 22.731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature on Friday [18] - On August 29th, the central bank conducted 782.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net investment of 421.7 billion yuan [19] 3.3.2 Important News - The economic sentiment in China continues to expand, and policies are being promoted to support private enterprises and consumer replacement [20] - The sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises from January to August decreased by 13.3% year - on - year, and the market may recover moderately in September [22] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently cut deposit rates [23] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was generally strong, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining slightly [26] - Most Vanke bonds rose, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell [26] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, while the US dollar index fell slightly [29][30] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - After Powell's speech, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [31] - The Trump administration may interfere with the Fed's personnel, potentially leading to monetary easing [31] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On September 1st, 121 bonds will be listed, 64 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be paid, and 604 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [33][34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Next week, 29 A - shares will be lifted from lock - up, with a total market value of 18.877 billion yuan [35] - In H1 2025, Shanghai - listed companies' revenues decreased slightly, while profits increased [35] - As of the end of August, the scale of Shanghai ETFs exceeded 3.7 trillion yuan, with significant capital inflows [36]

Report Information - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.205%, 4.699%, 3.477% respectively [3] - Latest changes ranged from -0.076% (Brazil) to 0.020% (Japan) [3] - One-year changes varied from -0.355% (Japan) to 0.784% (UK) [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany were 3.610%, 3.932%, 1.931% respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.120% (US) to 0.033% (South Korea) [3] - One-year changes were from -0.692% (Italy) to 0.249% (UK) [3] Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 28, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa were 5.415, -, 17.698 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -0.71% (South Korean won) to 0.02% (South African rand) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.36% (Thai baht) to 4.07% (South Korean won) [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 28, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ were 6501.860, 45636.900, 21705.160 respectively [3] - Latest changes were from -1.16% (Taiwan stock index) to 0.86% (Mexico stock index) [3] - One-year changes were from -5.88% (Thai stock index) to 35.93% (Spain stock index) [3] Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes were from -0.07% (Eurozone investment-grade) to 0.37% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] - One-year changes were from 3.84% (US investment-grade) to 13.45% (Emerging economies' high-yield) [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 3843.60, 4463.78, 2960.73 respectively [5] - Price changes were from 1.14% (A-shares) to 3.82% (ChiNext) [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500 were 13.86, 11.78, 32.73 respectively [5] -环比 changes were mostly 0.00, except S&P 500 with 0.09 [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-year interest rate of S&P 500 was -0.50, Germany DAX was 2.33 [5] -环比 changes were 0.02 (S&P 500) and 0.00 (Germany DAX) [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A-shares, main board, ChiNext were -475.66, -570.85, -18.92 respectively [5] - 5-day average values were -668.34, -576.89, -114.20 respectively [5] Transaction Amounts - Latest values of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50 were 29708.03, 7394.24, 1952.15 respectively [5] -环比 changes were from -1947.62 (Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets) to -24.39 (SSE 50) [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis of IF, IH, IC were -3.38, -0.93, -44.16 respectively [5] - Premium or discount rates were from -0.63% (IC) to -0.03% (IH) [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.040, 105.620, 107.795, 105.460 respectively [6] - Price changes were from 0.01% (T00) to 0.04% (TF00) [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3643%, 1.5636%, 1.5500% respectively [6] - Daily changes were from -18.00 BP (R001) to 0.00 BP (SHIBOR - 3M) [6]

Market Overview - U.S. equities are reaching new highs despite numerous fundamental and technical indicators signaling potential issues, including a significant increase in bankruptcy filings with 446 large companies collapsing in 2025 and market breadth at levels not seen since 2008 [1] - Valuations are extremely high, with Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio near dot-com peaks and Warren Buffett's market cap-to-GDP gauge indicating caution [1] Bubble Timing and Historical Context - The current market conditions reflect exuberant optimism, but experts warn about the risks of timing the market, as historical data shows poor outcomes for those who attempt to time their entry and exit [2] - The S&P 500-to-Gold ratio is signaling a potential major market shift, with only three previous instances of such a signal occurring in 1929, 1971, and 2000, each marking significant economic transitions [3][4] Technical Indicators - Recent technical indicators, including RSI and MACD on the S&P/Gold ratio, have crossed lower, suggesting a shift in market cycles where gold may outperform equities in the coming years [5] - Historical precedents indicate that such crossovers have led to significant declines in stock values while gold prices surged [7] Macro Economic Conditions - Current macroeconomic data shows a concerning trend with diminishing market breadth, increasing corporate defaults, and acknowledgment from tech leaders of a potential bubble, leading to predictions of a "deflationary bust" where stocks and real estate may falter under debt pressure while gold retains value [8] - The rising U.S. dollar is expected to exacerbate these conditions, aligning with the Dollar Milkshake Theory, which posits that a slowing global economy typically results in a stronger dollar [9][10] Implications for Gold and Equities - A stronger dollar is likely to create pressure on emerging markets, global trade, and commodities, making the S&P-to-Gold ratio crucial for understanding which assets will hold value during economic turmoil [11] - Historical patterns suggest that a breakdown in the S&P-to-Gold ratio indicates that gold may outperform equities, not through immediate explosive growth, but as equities lose their dominance [11]

Group 1: Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 392.7 billion, 369.2 billion, and 164 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 352.6 billion, 208.8 billion, and 94.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 156.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 85.6 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 67 billion, with a net financing amount of -21.35 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued, with an expected financing scale of 1.3 billion [1] Group 2: Secondary Market Review - The bond market adjusted again against a strong stock market backdrop, influenced by factors such as a slight tightening of the funding environment, the stock-bond seesaw effect, and weak sentiment in the primary issuance of government bonds [2] Group 3: Liquidity Tracking - The central bank net injected liquidity and conducted excess MLF renewals, leading to a slight tightening of the funding environment, with R001 and R007 rising by 0.8 basis points and falling by 0.2 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Group 4: Policy and Fundamentals - The cumulative growth of the national general public budget for the first seven months turned positive for the first time, indicating preliminary improvement in fiscal revenue and expenditure [4] - High-frequency data shows a mixed performance on the production side, slight improvement in real estate demand, continued decline in exports, and rising food prices but falling industrial product prices [4] Group 5: Overseas Market - Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting raised expectations for a rate cut in September, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing at 4.26%, down 7 basis points from the previous week [5] Group 6: Equity Market - The market continued its upward trend, with the Wind All A index rising 3.87% and the Sci-Tech 50 index soaring 13.31%, led by the communication and electronics sectors [6] - The average daily trading volume for the All A market was 2.59 trillion, with a weekly average trading volume of 422.595 billion [6] - As of August 21, 2025, the financing balance for the All A market was 2,131.924 billion, an increase of 90.885 billion from August 14, indicating a sustained net inflow of financing, primarily focused on "innovation" [6] Group 7: Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Concerns about the equity market remain the main influence on the direction of the bond market, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion for eight consecutive trading days, indicating a significant increase in investor risk appetite [7] - The bond market is expected to face upward interest rate risks due to the siphoning of funds by the stock market, but the long-term allocation value in the bond market is gradually becoming evident [7] - The 10-year government bond yield of 1.8% presents a high allocation cost-performance ratio for banks, given the actual return on mortgage loans is around 1.85% [7] - The convertible bond market is expected to continue its bullish atmosphere, with a focus on structural opportunities during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports [7] - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: midstream manufacturing sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, technology sectors related to the AI industry, and high-dividend sectors with both short-term stability and long-term strategic investment value [7]