分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-12 研究所 风险提示： 中美贸易摩擦超预期加剧；政策效果不及预期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《鲜菜鲜果涨价支撑食品改善，服务 价格相对稳固》 - 2025.12.11 宏观研究 中共中央经济工作会议精神学习：符合预期，整体 定调更具针对性 核心要点 本次中央经济工作会议基本符合预期，整体定调更具针对性，各 项核心部署基本契合市场预期，政策导向的延续性与灵活性得到充分 体现。2026 年我国经济发展仍是目标导向，经济增长预期目标或应有 所下修。宏观政策"更加积极"定调不变，政策倾向于保持谨慎克制， 政策力度或基本持平去年水平。 从 8 个重点工作内容来看，（1）扩内需仍是首位工作，重点关 注服务消费突围、"两重"投资回暖。（2）国际科技创新中心引领新 动能培育和发展，新型基础设施建设是 ...

2026年房地产市场走向备受关注。 其中"制定实施城乡居民增收计划""扩大优质商品和服务供给""清理消费领域不合理限制措施""推动投资止跌回稳""优化地方政府专项债券用途管理""高质 量推进城市更新"等，将从不同维度积极影响房地产市场的发展。 出处：央视新闻 特别是城市更新领域，对比2024年和2025年的工作任务可见，城市更新工作从"大力实施"升维至"高质量推进"。 上海易居房地产研究院（下称易居研究院）认为，此次会议明确高质量推进城市更新，一方面，城市作为经济活动的重要载体和枢纽，其功能完善对促进 生产、分配、流通、消费各环节畅通循环意义重大，能为内需主导的发展格局提供有力支撑；另一方面，基于城市发展的新阶段，要把城市更新作为城市 高质量发展的重要抓手，并将其和社会经济发展、稳楼市等工作进行有力结合。 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议对明年的房地产工作作出明确部署，要求"着力稳定房地产市场"。 2026年房地产工作怎么做？会议提出提振消费、城乡居民增收、高质量推进城市更新、积极稳妥化解风险、深化住房公积金制度改革、构建房地产发展新 模式等重要工作任务，从不同维度为房地产市场健康发展保驾护航 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes risk mitigation in the real estate sector, indicating a shift in focus from stimulating the economy through real estate to managing risks associated with it [1] Group 1: Real Estate Policy - The conference included extensive discussions on real estate policies, exceeding market expectations, suggesting that related sectors may receive temporary attention [1] - The focus on real estate work is primarily on risk prevention rather than economic stimulation, reflecting a significant reduction in the real estate sector's contribution to the domestic economy [1] - A key point of interest for next year is whether second-hand housing prices can stabilize significantly [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The conference's statements on fiscal policy were somewhat restrained, likely due to the need for sustainable debt management, indicating that the broad fiscal deficit rate may not see substantial increases next year [1] - There was a reiteration of the prohibition on the illegal addition of hidden debts, along with a new emphasis on addressing the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms through multiple measures [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The tone regarding monetary policy was more positive, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - This suggests that monetary policy easing may accelerate next year, particularly with a potential for quicker reductions in benchmark interest rates [1] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The conference prioritizes the development of domestic demand as the foremost task for economic work next year, highlighting the importance of consumption in economic development [1] - Policies encouraging consumption are expected to continue to be strengthened [1]

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

市场消息：万科寻求将第二支本地债券的期限延长一年。（新浪财经） ...

市场消息：万科寻求将第二支本地债券的期限延长一年。 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has established a clear policy blueprint for China's economic direction, emphasizing a "systematic thinking" and "effectiveness-oriented" approach to economic policy [2][3] Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The conference highlights a shift from broad policy coverage to targeted and precise measures, integrating existing and new policies to address economic challenges [2] - Specific institutional designs and action plans have been introduced to tackle issues such as consumption restrictions, corporate debt, and real estate market fluctuations [2] Group 2: Identifying Challenges and Opportunities - The conference acknowledges the achievements of China's economy while also recognizing significant challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - A consensus has been built around the long-term positive outlook for the economy, despite acknowledging transitional pains [3] Group 3: Practical Experience and Methodology - Five key principles for economic work have been identified: maximizing economic potential, balancing policy support with reform, ensuring effective governance, integrating investments in goods and people, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [4] - These principles provide a methodological framework for addressing economic governance and avoiding fragmentation [4] Group 4: Addressing Core Economic Issues - The conference identifies three main focus areas: expanding domestic demand, fostering innovation and reform, and managing risks in key sectors such as real estate and local government debt [5] - Measures to combat "involution" in competition and address deep-seated economic contradictions have been emphasized [5] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Expectations - The conference promotes a combination of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for policy continuity while optimizing implementation strategies [6] - A focus on improving policy coherence and managing expectations is highlighted to stabilize market confidence [6] Group 6: Enhancing Domestic Demand - Specific actions to boost consumption include implementing a "Consumption Promotion Special Action" and a "Rural Residents Income Increase Plan," aimed at removing unreasonable restrictions and enhancing service consumption potential [7] - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage to stimulate private investment [9] Group 7: Innovation and Reform Initiatives - The conference outlines plans for establishing three major international technology innovation centers and enhancing intellectual property protection in emerging fields [10] - A focus on integrating technology and industry innovation is emphasized, with a call for supportive policies for venture capital and long-term funding for early-stage projects [10] Group 8: Social Welfare and Employment - The conference emphasizes the importance of social welfare measures, including stabilizing employment for graduates and migrant workers, and enhancing social security for flexible employment [12] - Policies aimed at improving education, healthcare, and childcare support are highlighted to address public concerns and enhance living standards [12] Group 9: Risk Management Strategies - A targeted approach to risk management is proposed, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with specific measures to control inventory and optimize debt restructuring [13][14] - The focus is on preventing systemic risks while addressing core risk areas through structured and effective measures [13] Group 10: Capital Market Development - The conference calls for continued deepening of capital market reforms to enhance market attractiveness and inclusivity, with a focus on long-term investment and institutional improvements [15][16] - Emphasis is placed on creating a multi-layered and differentiated market system to support various stages of enterprise development [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with "√" indicating a bullish bias and "V" (assuming it's a typo and should be "√") indicating a bullish bias as well: - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Treasury bonds (TS), Rubber, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium carbonate, Cotton, Corn [5] - Bearish: Crude oil, Methanol, Apple, Container shipping to Europe [5] 2. Report's Core View - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic development and stabilize the market [1][7][11] - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated, and the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost market risk appetite [3][10] - Different futures varieties show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025 [6] - **Domestic News**: The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10 - 11 pointed out the overall requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, including continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks [7] - **Industry News**: In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both approached 15 million, with exports of new energy vehicles doubling year - on - year [7] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas futures on December 10 - 11, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00 points, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.55% to $61.55 per barrel [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the previous trading day's decline, with the improvement of the system, the expansion of funds, and the empowerment of industries, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market may be consolidated. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December and the positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [3][10] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.831%. The market liquidity is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut and the expected introduction of domestic policies support the short - term Treasury bond futures [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session fell 1.27%. The IEA raised the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to factors such as weak European demand [13] - **Methanol**: Methanol's night - session fell 1.83%. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant operating rate decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory decreased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply elasticity is weakening. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the previous price decline was affected by the weakening of crude oil and the overall commodity market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the price continued to be weak [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to be weak, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to the potential changes in industrial production and the recovery of the real estate industry chain [17] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion are expected to boost market liquidity and support the long - term upward trend of precious metals [18] - **Copper**: The night - session copper price rose more than 2% due to the Fed's unexpected action. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Zinc**: The night - session zinc price rose nearly 3% due to the Fed's action. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and related factors [20] - **Aluminum**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum rose 0.82%. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the aluminum price. In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and the demand is okay in the off - season. The upward momentum is weakening in the short term, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to decline. The short - term supply disturbance is the focus. It is recommended to take a bullish view after a callback [22][23] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak. The steel mill's production reduction expectation and the increase in Mongolian coal imports put pressure on the price, but the strong policy expectation in December may provide upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price declined. The shipping volume increased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The steel mill's demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [25] - **Steel Products**: The steel price volatility increased. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The steel price has short - term rebound momentum but is expected to be weak in the medium term [26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night - session soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year, and the US soybean export is slow. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session soybean and palm oil futures were weak, and rapeseed oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive news [28] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly and are expected to be weak in the short term. The international raw sugar price is affected by Brazil and India, and the domestic supply is increasing, but the cost provides some support [29] - **Cotton**: The overnight cotton price was weak but still above the upper limit of the range. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as fast sales progress, potential reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 2.04%. The shipping companies' price - holding intention is strong in December and early January. The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline due to supply surplus and potential red - sea route resumption [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况[4] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息[5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝锭 -宏观上美联储预测不如部分投资者预期鹰派，美元下跌基本金属反弹，短期宏观情绪向好[3] -国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，北方铝土矿复产供矿不稳定，库存量低，但绝对库存高位，氧化铝价格走低，铝土矿价格预计仍有下跌空间[4] -国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比降0.1%至61.8%，延续淡季偏弱态势，各细分板块有不同表现，再生铝下滑显著[4] -12月11日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存较周一跌1.1万吨，较上周四跌1.2万吨[4] -宏观降息利好，供需格局边际改善支撑价格，国内淡季库存走势反复，价格短期高位震荡，高价抑制消费，关注宏观指引[5]

Summary of Key Points from the Central Economic Work Conference Industry or Company Involved - The summary pertains to the overall economic policies and strategies discussed during the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on various sectors including real estate, consumer goods, and agriculture. Core Points and Arguments - **Consumer Demand and Investment**: The conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a primary task for 2026, with measures to increase residents' income, remove consumption restrictions, and stabilize investment and the real estate market [2][5][12] - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: A commitment to maintaining an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy was reiterated, with a focus on innovative drivers and supporting effective supply [1][3][8] - **Real Estate Market**: The conference provided a positive outlook on the real estate sector, emphasizing measures to stabilize the market, control supply, reduce inventory, and improve housing quality [5][9][10] - **Capital Market Reform**: There was a call for deepening capital market reforms, focusing on long-term investor returns and preventing market volatility, with a positive outlook on growth sectors like AI and new energy [6][11] - **Household Appliances Sector**: The government signaled a likelihood of extending national subsidies, which could boost domestic demand for household appliances, with expectations of a recovery in sales growth [11][13] - **Consumer Spending**: The conference highlighted the need to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including income growth and policy optimization, to drive economic growth [12][14] - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: Key discussions included optimizing drug procurement and reforming medical insurance payment methods, which are expected to stabilize and grow the pharmaceutical sector [15] - **Agricultural Development**: The focus was on ensuring food security and promoting high-quality development in the pig industry, with an emphasis on technological advancements in agriculture [16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Risk Management**: The conference addressed the need for proactive risk management in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government financing, to prevent systemic financial risks [5][9] - **Quality of Monetary Policy**: There was a shift towards emphasizing the quality of monetary policy rather than just the quantity, indicating a potential acceleration in monetary easing in 2026 [8][7] - **New Consumption Trends**: The conference acknowledged emerging consumption trends such as the "first launch economy" and "silver economy," which could create new growth opportunities in the consumer market [14]