Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market) [1] Report's Core View - This week, US non - farm data verified the economic cooling trajectory. Fed Governor Farrer said monetary policy is in a restrictive range with room for rate cuts, and the employment market suggests the Fed should continue to cut rates, with the interest rate 50 to 100 basis points higher than the neutral rate. Gold has been blocked at record highs in recent days and pulled back. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through and refresh the record high. If the breakthrough is confirmed, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue. Tonight, focus on US GPI data and weekly initial jobless claims [1]. - The continuous rally of platinum and palladium on the GZEX, the shift of funds in the precious metals sector, and the prospects of large - scale hydrogen energy application during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period have brought higher premiums to platinum and palladium. With active trading, the market is pricing in the expected supply gap on the fundamental side. Due to the brittle supply and small market size, platinum and palladium are good long - allocation varieties. However, due to the large short - term increase, beware of the short - term multi - killing - multi market caused by funds leaving at high levels. Adopt the idea of long - allocation on pullbacks in the medium term [2]. Other Summaries - The US media reported that if Putin refuses the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [2]. - The US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [2]. - A joint Fed survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and they expect prices to rise by 4% next year [2]. - According to US media, the Trump administration's recent move to block oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast is the latest manifestation of its "gradual pressure" strategy against Venezuelan President Maduro, aiming to oust Maduro through continuous isolation and squeezing rather than immediate large - scale domestic actions [2].

12月19日，国内期市有色金属板块涨多跌少。其中，沪铜期货盘中震荡运行为主，截至发稿主力合约报 93050.00元/吨，涨幅0.32%。 宏观面，据广州期货介绍，美国11月CPI数据明显低于预期，但由于政府关门导致10月数据采集缺失， 本次CPI数据缺少环比分项细节，市场怀疑数据有所失真，美元指数前期明显下跌后偏震荡为主。 从基本面来看，宁证期货分析称，"强预期、弱现实"格局未变，供应端的紧张叙事仍是价格的核心支 撑。高铜价对下游的抑制效应持续，需求端呈现结构性分化。 库存方面，光大期货指出，LME铜库存下降2650吨至164275吨；COMEX铜仓单增加2339吨至416914 吨；SHFE铜仓单下降227吨至44650吨；BC铜下降5127吨至1053吨。 展望后市，南华期货（603093）表示，美通胀增幅不及预期，降息概率增加，铜价盘中走势偏谨慎，从 调整情况看，每当触及91500-92000区间，买盘积极。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract rising by 5.02% to 112,640.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in domestic lithium carbonate production, which rose by 59 tons to 22,000 tons last week, while spodumene production saw a minor increase and salt lake production experienced seasonal declines [2] - On the demand side, despite the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, there is a potential risk of decreased automobile sales in late 2025, which could impact the growth of the power battery market and overall demand for lithium carbonate [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that lithium carbonate futures prices will be driven by market optimism, but there are concerns about supply shocks from unexpected resumption of production and potential declines due to downstream maintenance [3] - The long-term perspective remains positive, as the demand growth logic in core applications such as new energy power batteries and energy storage has not fundamentally changed, supporting the long-term value of lithium carbonate [3] - There are still opportunities for buying on dips in lithium carbonate, indicating a favorable investment sentiment in the sector [3]

机构观点 中辉期货：终端消费领域已经转入淡季阶段。据统计，12月最新无锡和佛山两大不锈钢市场库存总量小幅增加至94.69万吨，周环比上升0.1%。海 外印尼进口货源流入国内，且不锈钢厂减产的实际落实量低，不锈钢社会库存小幅上涨。目前不锈钢市场进入年末消费淡季，下游需求持续低 迷，密切跟踪终端消费对库存变动的影响。策略推荐建议镍、不锈钢短期止盈观望为主，注意下游不锈钢库存的变动情况。 银河期货：不锈钢库存下降且供应端排产收缩，尤其是300系冷轧库存减少，但终端需求淡季限制价格上涨空间，印尼镍矿政策刺激期货价格反 弹，吸引部分下游采购。 12月19日，不锈钢期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报12680.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.26%。 【消息面汇总】 12月18日，上期所不锈钢仓库期货仓单48855吨，环比上个交易日减少9792吨。 12月18日，广东地区不锈钢库16,411吨，较上日下跌423吨；江苏地区不锈钢库存合计37,883吨，较上日下跌9369吨；合计48,855吨，较上一交易 日下跌9792吨。 据统计，1月—11月份，我国出口钢材1.08亿吨，同比增长6.7%，预计全年钢材出口量将创历史最高水平； ...

12月19日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报337000.00元/吨，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及342890.00元，下方探低334680.00元，涨幅达1.96% 附近。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 铜冠金源期货指出，美国11月CPI通胀低于预期，美元先跌后涨。今日日本央行召开利率会议，市场情 绪谨慎。刚果金武装冲突缓和，供应端扰动支撑减弱，同时下游对高价锡接受度承压，预计库存持续累 增。短期宏观偏紧，基本面利好逐步消化，锡价上冲动能边际减弱，追涨谨慎，关注今日库存数据及持 仓变化。 五矿期货表示，短期虽然当前锡市需求疲软，且供给有好转预期，但下游库存低位情形下，议价能力有 限，短期价格预计跟随市场风偏变化波动。操作方面，建议观望为主。国内主力合约参考运行区间： 300000-350000元/吨，海外伦锡参考运行区间：39000-43000美元/吨。 新湖期货分析称，短期基本面偏弱，对锡价有一定压力。不过宏观政策面的乐观预期主导资金情绪。短 期锡价或高位震荡，不建议追高。关注后期 ...

燃料油期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 瑞达期货 燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 12月19日盘中，燃料油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至2380.00元。截止发稿，燃料油主 力合约报2383.00元，跌幅2.22%。 机构 核心观点 光大期货 短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价反复震荡 国投安信期货 燃料油受成本端影响同步波动 近期俄乌、美委地缘变动频繁，燃料油受成本端影响同步波动。从基本面看，美国对委内瑞拉持续施压 已对近期高硫重质原料发运形成实际影响，预计后续到港可能受阻，将为市场提供阶段性支撑，但其持 续性仍需观察局势演变。不过新加坡及中东库存边际上升，叠加物流阻滞导致的浮舱累积，高库存背景 下中期供应压力依然存在。低硫方面，国内12月低硫配额剩余有限，产量预计收缩，或推升进口需求， 年末船燃旺季与阿祖尔炼厂复产再度推迟可能带来短期支撑，但在整体供应充裕的格局下，其中期走势 预计仍将维持偏弱。 瑞达期货（002961）：燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整 美委局势紧张，国际油价上涨，对化工品有一定提振。供应方面，主营炼厂产能利用率持稳，成品油独 立炼厂负荷下降，因近期成交清淡，多数炼 ...

记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨肖嘉 白银涨势狂飙，导致国投瑞银基金旗下国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）A类基金份额（下称： 国投白银LOF） 溢价居高不下，场内交易价格大幅偏离基金份额净值，产生36%的溢价。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，国投瑞银基金公司频频发布溢价风险提示公告，12月份已经发布了十份溢 价风险提示公告，并多次采取临时停牌的举措。12月19日开盘，国投白银LOF一度下跌超过8%，不过 目前已经收窄至4.3%左右。为了避免资金炒作，该基金甚至将申购金额调整至500元。 国投白银LOF今年大涨离不开现货白银的突飞猛进，白银现货年内累计涨幅逼近130%，特别是从下半 年开始呈现加速上涨态势。12月17日盘中最高触及66.893美元/盎司，近期虽然出现回调，但是依然维 持在65美元/盎司的高位。 暂停大额申购 近期，国投白银LOF二级市场交易价格波动较大引发市场关注。 12月19日，该基金公告称：2025年12 月17日，国投白银份额单位净值为1.7164元，截至2025年12月18日，该基金二级市场的收盘价为2.332 元，明显高于基金份额净值，投资者如果盲目投资于高溢价率的基金份额，可能面临较大损失。 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月19日，弘业期货盘中上涨2.14%，截至13:48，报10.52元/股，成交8787.60万元，换手率1.11%，总 市值106.02亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出159.88万元，特大单买入233.35万元，占比2.66%，卖出103.43万元，占 比1.18%；大单买入902.67万元，占比10.27%，卖出1192.47万元，占比13.57%。 弘业期货今年以来股价涨9.24%，近5个交易日涨1.35%，近20日涨5.94%，近60日跌8.44%。 今年以来弘业期货已经8次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为7月14日，当日龙虎榜净买入2467.63万 元；买入总计1.84亿元 ，占总成交额比14.85%；卖出总计1.59亿元 ，占总成交额比12.86%。 资料显示，苏豪弘业期货股份有限公司位于江苏省南京市建邺区江东中路399号3幢，成立日期1995年7 月31日，上市日期2022年8月5日，公司主营业务涉及商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪、期货投资咨询、资 产管理、基金销售和金融资产投资业务。通过全资子公司弘业资本主要从事大宗商品交易及风险管理业 务,通过全资境外子公司弘 ...

旨期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/19 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国资期货研 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 指数 0. 23 827.17 32. 55 上证50 2998. 517 4552. 7926 -0. 59 3821. 02 沪深300 151. 68 7272. 4024 -0. 22 中证1000 3489. 84 200. 04 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认洁期权 持仓量 认购期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 0. 78 2. 59 7. 05 3. 97 3.08 4. 20 1.61 0. 62 沪深300 15. 23 8. 90 6. 33 0. 71 21. 36 11. 98 9. 38 0. 78 中证1000 33. 46 17. 38 0. 93 36. 06 17. 52 18. 54 16. 08 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices has led to a high premium for the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF), with a premium of 36%, prompting the fund to issue multiple risk warnings and temporarily suspend large subscriptions to protect investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Reaction - The Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF experienced significant price volatility, with a closing price of 2.332 yuan on December 18, 2025, compared to a net asset value of 1.7164 yuan, indicating a substantial premium [3]. - The fund has issued ten premium risk warning announcements in December and has taken measures such as temporary suspensions to mitigate speculative trading [1][3]. - The fund's price dropped over 7% on December 19 but later narrowed to around 5% [1]. Group 2: Investment Risks and Market Dynamics - The high premium is attributed to "liquidity mismatch" and "overheated sentiment," as the fund tracks domestic silver futures while the secondary market reflects real-time emotions [5]. - Ordinary investors face potential "price reversion" risks due to the high premium, which could lead to significant losses if market sentiment shifts [4][5]. - The fund has limited daily subscription amounts to 500 yuan to prevent excessive speculation [4]. Group 3: Silver Market Outlook - The silver market has seen a remarkable increase, with spot silver prices rising nearly 130% this year, particularly accelerating in the second half [6][7]. - Factors such as declining global inventories, anticipated strong industrial demand, and inclusion of silver in critical mineral lists in the U.S. are supporting silver prices [6][8]. - Predictions indicate a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, driven by stable demand from the photovoltaic industry [7][8].