AI基金易方达逆向投资混合A（011649）披露2025年一季报，第一季度基金利润2218.23万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.033元。报告期内，基金净值增 长率为3.38%，截至一季度末，基金规模为6.37亿元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至4月21日，单位净值为0.929元。基金经理是杨嘉文，目前管理5只基金。其中，截至4月21日，易方达平衡视野混合A1近一 年复权单位净值增长率最高，达8.97%；易方达科瑞混合最低，为-6.5%。 基金管理人在一季报中表示，截至报告期末，大部分主流指数的估值分位处于中位数附近。本基金在 2025 年第一季度股票仓位相对稳定，一季度增持的行 业主要有汽车、电子、传媒，而减持的行业主要是公用事业、食品饮料、轻工制造。在行业选择上，本基金会更关注和经济相关性不高，而且估值分位不高 的板块；同时在顺周期板块也会布局一些供需格局清晰的子行业或者有较强竞争力的个股。 截至4月21日，易方达逆向投资混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为-1.63%，位于同类可比基金151/256；近半年复权单位净值增长率为-3.43%，位于同类 可比基金150/256；近一年复权单位净值增长率为- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the trading tracking of ultra - long credit bonds, analyzing the changes in trading volume, trading price, and low - valuation trading proportion of ultra - long credit bonds, ultra - long urban investment bonds, and ultra - long industrial bonds in the week from April 14th to April 18th, 2025, and comparing them with previous weeks [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Bonds: Volume Rise and Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion - **Trading Volume**: The daily trading activity of ultra - long credit bonds increased, with an average of 3.2 daily transactions (previous value: 2.9). The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 10 - 15 years increased significantly. However, the total trading volume decreased to 296 billion yuan, a 13.2% week - on - week decline, mainly due to the decrease in bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 - 10 years. Industrial bonds were more actively traded than urban investment bonds [2][11]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term of ultra - long credit bonds decreased to 9.93 years, a 0.65 - year decline. The average trading term of ultra - long urban investment bonds increased by 0.03 years, while that of industrial bonds decreased by 0.69 years [3][13]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yield of ultra - long credit bonds rose to 2.37%, a 7 - bp increase. The trading yield of ultra - long urban investment bonds decreased by 5 bp, and that of ultra - long industrial bonds increased by 7 bp. The proportion of low - valuation transactions decreased to 46%, with a significant decline in ultra - long industrial bonds from 59% to 44%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions of bonds with a remaining maturity of 20 - 30 years decreased by about 33 percentage points [3][13]. 3.2 Ultra - long Urban Investment Bonds: Rising Volume in Shandong and Fujian, Marginal Increase in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Fujian - **Trading Volume**: Shandong had a high trading volume of 38.3 billion yuan. The trading volume of ultra - long urban investment bonds in Sichuan and Shaanxi decreased by 5.4 billion yuan and 2.3 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume in Shandong and Fujian increased [4][15]. - **Trading Term**: The average trading term was 9.73 years. The trading term in Shandong increased by 2.18 years, while that in Shaanxi decreased by 3.76 years [4][16]. - **Trading Price**: Zhejiang had a high trading yield of over 3%. The trading yields in Henan and Guangdong increased by 30 bp and 13 bp respectively, while those in Anhui and Shandong decreased by 99 bp and 55 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in Beijing decreased by 49 percentage points, while that in Fujian increased [4][16]. 3.3 Ultra - long Industrial Bonds: Rising Volume in Comprehensive and Basic Chemical Industries, Decline in Low - valuation Transaction Proportion in Machinery and Public Utilities - **Trading Volume**: The comprehensive industry had a high trading volume of 57.7 billion yuan. The trading volume in the comprehensive and basic chemical industries increased by 27.5 billion yuan and 9.5 billion yuan respectively, while that in the public utilities industry decreased by about 99.8 billion yuan [5][19]. - **Trading Term**: The trading terms of non - bank finance and real estate industries decreased by 3.98 years and 2.97 years respectively, while those of transportation and public utilities industries increased by 4.23 years and 1.39 years respectively [5][22]. - **Trading Price**: The trading yields of transportation and machinery industries increased by 83 bp and 24 bp respectively. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in steel, electronics, social services, and commercial retail industries was as high as 100%. The proportion of low - valuation transactions in machinery and public utilities industries decreased [7][22].

Core Insights - The report utilizes AI to analyze the annual reports of the A500 index constituents, focusing on industry trends and structural changes [1][4] - The A500 index reflects the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries in China [1][4] Industry Summaries - **Media**: The domestic gaming market is expected to grow steadily in 2024, with a focus on high-quality transformation and rapid growth in the mini-game sector. The policy emphasizes a dual drive of culture and technology [6] - **Electronics**: The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural recovery, driven by AI technology breakthroughs and strong demand for high-performance computing and smart terminals. Traditional consumer electronics are recovering at a slower pace [6] - **Computers**: The computer industry is witnessing collaborative development across multiple fields, with a focus on AI integration and data security governance. Companies are increasing R&D investments to enhance domestic alternatives [6] - **Telecommunications**: The telecommunications sector is experiencing growth driven by technology and market demand, with applications in high-precision navigation and green low-carbon transformation [6] - **Real Estate**: The real estate sector continues to face deep adjustments, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in development investment. However, policy support is expected to stabilize the market gradually [6] - **Banking**: The banking industry is challenged by insufficient macroeconomic recovery and intensified competition, with a focus on digital transformation and structural policy opportunities [6] - **Healthcare**: The healthcare sector is driven by policy support for innovative drug development and an aging population, with significant growth in blood products and vaccines [6] - **Electric Power Equipment**: The electric power equipment industry is experiencing structural growth, with increasing demand for new energy systems and technological innovations [8] - **Environmental Protection**: The environmental protection industry is transitioning to high-quality development, with a focus on technological innovation and resource recycling [9] - **Basic Chemicals**: The basic chemicals sector is facing structural differentiation, with opportunities in high-end products and challenges in traditional segments due to overcapacity [9] - **Transportation**: The transportation industry is navigating complex external challenges while pursuing international expansion and smart logistics solutions [9] - **Petrochemicals**: The petrochemical industry is facing geopolitical challenges and fluctuating demand, with a focus on energy efficiency and green transformation [9] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals sector is benefiting from strong demand in new energy and consumer electronics, with a focus on green transformation and resource integration [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has rebounded from recent lows, but traders are significantly increasing their allocation to defensive assets [1] - Despite President Trump's announcement to pause tariffs on most goods for 90 days, investors focusing on safe sectors have achieved better returns than those in riskier areas [1][2] - Barclays data shows that defensive stock portfolios generally outperform cyclical stocks during market upswings, and continue to lead when market sentiment worsens [1][3] Group 2 - Financially weaker companies have seen a 3.3% decline in stock prices after the tariff pause announcement, underperforming healthier companies [1] - Keith Lerner from Truist Advisory Services indicates a shift towards traditional defensive strategies, suggesting that investors are waiting for clearer market signals [1][2] - Defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare tend to be more resilient during economic downturns, providing stable earnings and relatively smooth returns [2] Group 3 - The shift towards defensive companies reflects changes in market behavior and risk-return dynamics, particularly evident in the AI sector, which has recently faced significant declines [3] - High-growth companies are struggling due to factors beyond their control, prompting investors to pivot towards defensive sectors in preparation for further market volatility [3]

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 ， 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度，趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，当前已下降接近0轴，为0.1，数值较上周五(4/11)下降0.4，模型维持看空观点。 1.1 从分项指标出发：市场进一步缩量，资金不确定情绪增长 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪下行，速度没有呈现减缓趋势。本周市场情绪不确定性增强，风险偏好程度下降是市 场情绪进一步调整的主要原因。 下表展示了4月以来的情绪结构各分项指标的分数情况，从分项指标出发，本周明显提示信号切换的指标为科创50成 交占比和300RSI指标，分别代表了市场风险偏好程 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's policy options are more abundant, providing greater space and endurance compared to the U.S. during the trade war stalemate [1] - A-shares are seen as a key factor in boosting confidence, with a belief in the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market [1] - The article suggests that sectors benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, and materials that do not rely on short-term performance will outperform [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to be more self-reliant, with a stable domestic economic foundation and timely responses to external uncertainties [2] - Internal demand and self-sufficiency are highlighted as focal points for economic momentum and short-term policy support [2] - The market is better prepared psychologically to handle external uncertainties compared to the previous trade conflict in 2018 [2] Group 3 - A-shares are anticipated to see a stabilization in risk appetite, with defensive assets likely to yield absolute and relative returns during adjustment phases [3] - The technology sector is expected to gain weight in the market as confidence in capital market stability increases [3][4] - The next phase of A-share market growth is likely to be driven by structural technology trends [4] Group 4 - The configuration value of the A-share market is expected to rise, supported by a resilient domestic economy and ample policy reserves [5] - The market is projected to achieve stable and healthy long-term development as it adapts to tariff policies [5] Group 5 - The Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not yet over, with a shift in the main contradictions of valuation [6] - A decline in discount rates is identified as a key driver for the stock market's rise by 2025 [6] Group 6 - The market's downward volatility risk is considered limited, with a focus on internal demand policies [7] - The upcoming months are expected to see more fiscal policy implementation, particularly in May and June [7] Group 7 - The A-share market is viewed as having controllable downside risks and potential for upward movement, with a focus on sectors experiencing local economic recovery [9] - Recommendations include sectors with high free cash flow and low penetration but high growth potential, such as AI and humanoid robots [9] Group 8 - The resilience of A-shares and the government's determination to stabilize the stock market are emphasized, with a favorable outlook for medium to long-term investments [10] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an advantage over global indices due to valuation benefits [10] Group 9 - The short-term equity market is in a consolidation phase, but domestic policy support and resilient internal demand are expected to maintain its relative strength [11] - Focus areas include domestic technology self-sufficiency and quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion [11] Group 10 - The expectation of a rebound in global recession forecasts suggests a need for China to find suitable demand to maintain its manufacturing capacity advantage [13] - Recommended sectors include consumer industries benefiting from domestic demand and resource products amid global economic restructuring [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in nuclear power generation, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0% in March, while thermal power generation has decreased by 2.3% [11] - The overall electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with the first and third industries maintaining high growth rates [20] - The report emphasizes the potential for further declines in coal prices due to increased supply and decreased demand as temperatures rise, which could enhance profitability in thermal power generation [6] Industry Scale - The industry comprises 241 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 370.24 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 344.90 billion [2] Industry Index Performance - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown positive performance, with the public utility index increasing by 1.77% and the environmental index by 0.04% [6][28] - Year-to-date, the environmental sector has a cumulative decline of 1.02%, while the electric power sector has declined by 2.46%, both outperforming the broader market indices [6] Key Data Tracking - As of April 18, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 680 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 57.5% from its peak of 1599 yuan/ton in October 2022 [40] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 327.31 yuan/MWh on April 18, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7.0% [65] - The national carbon market saw a weekly trading volume of 149.89 million tons, a substantial increase of 319.5% [72] Key Events in the Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" [76]

239家A股上市公司发布一季度业绩预告 17家净利同比预增上限超6倍 智通财经4月20日电，据Choice数据统计显示，截至发稿，共有239家A股上市公司发布2025年一季度业绩预告。其中，有研新材、锐捷网络、四川双马、广 大特材、郴电国际、中船防务、杰创智能、豪鹏科技、翔港科技、东北证券、北方稀土、英联股份、美格智能、中国海防、中集集团、光华科技和金瑞矿业 在内的17只个股归母净利同比预增上限超600%。 | | | | | 2025年一季度业绩预告同比增长超600%个股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 归母净利润上限(亿元) | 同比增长上限(%) | 甲力行业 | 业绩受动原因/财报点) | | 有研新材 | 0. 75 | 16370.00 | 电子 | 全资子公司有研亿金继续聚焦高附加值产品,本季度靶材产销量同 金利润总额增长超过60% | | | | | | 国内AI需求景气度高,公司有望持续受益。2025年公司将继续聚焦 | | | | | | 安全、云桌面业务方向。在教据中心方面,运营商及国内互联网 | | 锐捷网络 | 1. 25 | 5 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation from April 14 to April 18, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.64%, respectively [1] - The market sentiment was influenced by a shift in investment style, with funds moving from high-volatility technology sectors to traditional industries with stable cash flows. Blue-chip and high-dividend strategies performed well, while growth sectors continued to decline [1] Industry Performance - Concerns over supply chain disruptions led to a slowdown in economic recovery, affecting sectors such as industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology, with the latter experiencing the largest decline, though not exceeding 0.8% [1] - Real estate, telecommunications services, and utilities showed relatively strong performance, with real estate rising by 3.47% [1] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 25 funds were issued last week, including 17 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 20.476 billion units [2][18] - The total index for Chinese funds increased by 0.02%, while the ordinary equity fund index decreased by 0.08%, and the mixed equity fund index fell by 0.04% [2] Global Asset Review - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with U.S. indices under pressure, while European markets strengthened. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices fell by over 2%, while major Asian indices rose by over 2% [4] - In commodities, the energy sector led gains, while industrial metals showed mixed results. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to increased risk aversion, reaching over $3,300 per ounce [4] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.04% and the 30-year futures increasing by 0.03%. Domestic long-term interest rates remained at historical lows [16]