Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$ 180 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported FY2026 Q2 revenue of RMB 247.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Excluding disposed businesses, the revenue growth was 15%. Operating profit decreased by 85% to RMB 5.4 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 53% to RMB 21 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The core e-commerce business remains stable, with customer management revenue increasing by 10% to RMB 78.9 billion, driven by the improved penetration of the service fee model and a significant rise in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app [9]. - The timely retail business experienced rapid growth, with revenue up 60%, and losses are expected to decrease in line with market forecasts [9]. - Cloud business revenue exceeded market expectations, reaching RMB 39.8 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, primarily due to growth in public cloud services and increased adoption of AI-related products [9]. - Capital expenditures remain high at RMB 31.4 billion, with a potential increase in the three-year total spending guidance to RMB 380 billion, reflecting continued strong investment in AI [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2026, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 116.3 billion, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with EPS of RMB 6.12, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 23.58 [11]. - The company’s net profit for FY2024 and FY2025 is expected to be RMB 80.0 billion and RMB 130.1 billion, respectively, with significant growth in FY2025 [11]. Market Position - The company holds a market capitalization of HK$ 175.3 billion, with a share price of HK$ 157.80 as of November 25, 2025 [2]. - The stock has shown a significant increase of 85.92% over the past month, although it has decreased by 9.10% over the past year [2]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include JPMorgan Chase & Co., holding 3.57% of the shares [2].

Core Insights - UBS reports that from early 2025 to now, the China Internet ETF (KWEB) has risen by 37%, with a 5% increase in the current quarter, but earnings expectations have been downgraded by 19%, primarily due to e-commerce investments in instant retail [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Favorable market sentiment has driven valuation multiples higher, with major internet companies' valuation multiples expanding by approximately 58% to around 17 times the 2025E adjusted P/E ratio, while the U.S. "Tech Seven" has a valuation of about 31 times [2] - Small and mid-cap vertical companies continue to outperform as investors avoid competition pressures among e-commerce giants, with emotional consumption scenarios like online gaming and music showing strong performance [2] - Low-allocated stocks have seen significant rebounds when performance meets expectations [2] Group 2: Structural Highlights in the Macro Environment - The online entertainment sector has exceeded expectations due to adequate content supply and capturing consumer spending, particularly in online gaming and music [3] - China's retail sales have grown by 3.7% year-on-year, with online sales of physical goods performing even better at a 6.3% increase, driven by extended shopping festivals and optimized platform algorithms [3] - Advertising technology and AI-related companies have positive outlooks, while traditional media platforms are underperforming [3] Group 3: Trends in the Internet Industry - Chinese internet giants are increasing capital expenditures and investing in AI, with a focus on GPU efficiency and flexibility in adjusting investment targets based on demand [4] - Domestic AI chip performance is improving due to ongoing self-research investments and local GPU manufacturers' development, with advancements in system-level technologies like "super node" technology [4] - Major cloud companies are maintaining full-year capital expenditure guidance, emphasizing chip utilization and deployment efficiency amid supply chain uncertainties [5] Group 4: Instant Retail Investments - Platforms are increasing investments in instant retail to drive low-frequency e-commerce business through high-frequency delivery transactions, with signs of short-term competition stabilizing [6] - Market share appears to be stabilizing, and the industry is expected to bottom out post "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with competition returning to normal by the end of Q4 [7] - Long-term challenges remain, including intensified competition and the need to accelerate online penetration of delivery services among merchants and consumers [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [6] Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud revenue continues to accelerate, and the flash purchase business is reducing losses, indicating a positive trajectory for the company [1] - The management expresses confidence in the growth of AI demand and plans to invest further in AI and cloud services to enhance synergies [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28, reflecting better-than-expected performance in Q2 FY26 and improvements in the flash purchase business [4][17] Financial Performance - Alibaba's total revenue for Q2 FY26 was 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The adjusted EBITA for Q2 FY26 was 9.1 billion yuan, down 77.6% year-on-year, but better than the forecasted 7.7 billion yuan [1] - The cloud segment's revenue grew by 34.5% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth rate of 28% [3] Business Segments - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue increased by 15.5% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q2 FY26, driven by improved monetization rates [2] - The flash purchase business has shown a significant reduction in losses, with management indicating that losses per order have halved since October [2] - AI-related revenue has been growing at a triple-digit rate for nine consecutive quarters, now accounting for over 20% of external commercial revenue [3] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The adjusted non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are set at 105.8 billion yuan, 131.0 billion yuan, and 159.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][17] - The target price for Alibaba's stock is set at 214.9 USD for US shares and 209.0 HKD for Hong Kong shares, corresponding to PE ratios of 36.3, 29.3, and 24.1 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 [4][19]

Group 1 - Huawei launched the new Mate 80 and Mate 80 Pro series smartphones, with starting prices of 4699 yuan and 5999 yuan respectively, during its product launch event on November 25 [2] - Alibaba reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with the Chinese e-commerce division generating 132.58 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 10.35 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - NIO provided a delivery guidance for the fourth quarter, expecting a year-on-year growth of 65% to 72% [4] - *ST Dongtong's stock may be delisted, with trading suspended from November 26 [5] - Wanrun Co., Ltd. announced that its actual controller plans to increase shareholding by 365 million to 730 million yuan [6] - Aotewei signed a contract worth approximately 700 million yuan to sell equipment such as string welding machines to clients [7] - Junting Hotel is planning a change in company control, with stock suspension starting November 26 [8] - Purun Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire a 49% stake in Noah Changtian, with stock suspension starting November 26 [9] - Guosheng Technology intends to acquire 100% equity of Fuyue Technology for 241 million yuan [10] - SIRUI plans to acquire shares in Ningbo Aola Semiconductor, with stock suspension starting November 26 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's CEO expressed confidence that an AI bubble is unlikely to emerge within the next three years, highlighting strong demand for both new and older GPU models in the industry [1] Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Alibaba reported a revenue increase of 5% year-on-year to 247.795 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a 15% growth when excluding divested businesses [1] - The adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% to 9.073 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 52% to 20.99 billion yuan [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 10.352 billion yuan, down 72% year-on-year [1] - Alibaba's stock fell by 2.31% in the US market and 1.14% in Hong Kong following the earnings report [1] Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Alibaba announced a conservative capital expenditure plan of 380 billion yuan for AI infrastructure over three years, with potential for increased investment if demand continues to outpace supply [2] - The CFO noted that the current growth in server deployment is lagging behind customer orders, indicating a need for further investment [2] - The cloud intelligence segment generated 39.824 billion yuan in revenue, a 34% increase driven by public cloud business growth, including AI-related product adoption [2] AI Application Development - Alibaba launched the Qianwen App, which has surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week, aiming to integrate AI into both B2B and B2C sectors [3] - The app is expected to leverage Alibaba's ecosystem to create a future AI lifestyle entry point [3] Supply Chain and Resource Allocation - In response to ongoing supply chain fluctuations, Alibaba is prioritizing resource allocation for core model training and AI services, balancing internal needs with external customer demands [4] - The CEO emphasized that AI demand growth is certain over the next three years, with a global shortage of AI server resources expected to persist [4] E-commerce and Retail Strategy - Alibaba's China e-commerce group reported a revenue of 132.578 billion yuan for the second quarter, a 16% year-on-year increase, despite a 76% drop in adjusted EBITA due to investments in instant retail and technology [5] - Instant retail revenue reached 22.906 billion yuan, reflecting a 60% increase [6] - The company is optimizing its user experience in instant retail, with significant improvements in operational efficiency noted since October [6] - As of October 31, approximately 3,500 Tmall brands integrated their offline stores into instant retail, contributing to a substantial increase in daily orders during the Double 11 shopping festival [6] Marketing and Cash Flow - Sales and marketing expenses doubled to 66.496 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue, up from 13.7% the previous year, primarily due to investments in user experience [7] - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 68% to 10.099 billion yuan, while free cash flow turned negative at 21.840 billion yuan, down from a positive 13.735 billion yuan the previous year [7] - As of September 30, 2025, Alibaba's cash and other liquid investments totaled 573.889 billion yuan [7]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue of major Chinese cities has shown significant changes in the first three quarters of 2025, with Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen leading the rankings, reflecting the solid strength of first-tier cities [1][6] - The overall ranking has undergone a reshuffle, with cities like Hangzhou and Chongqing demonstrating new economic vitality, indicating a strong recovery and diversified development in the Chinese economy [1][6] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Highlights - Shanghai's total revenue reached 655.568 billion yuan, an increase from 649.396 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [6] - Beijing's revenue was 503.990 billion yuan, up from 486.624 billion yuan year-on-year [6] - Shenzhen reported a revenue of 313.214 billion yuan, compared to 296.800 billion yuan in the previous year [6] Group 2: Emerging Cities and Economic Drivers - Hangzhou ranked 13th with a fiscal revenue of 98.290 billion yuan, driven by its digital economy and significant contributions from leading companies like Alibaba and Hikvision [3] - Chongqing, in 6th place, reported a revenue of 187.800 billion yuan, benefiting from its automotive and electronics industries, with a 25% growth in logistics revenue [4] - Wuhan, ranked 11th with 129.896 billion yuan, showcased a solid industrial upgrade foundation, particularly in the electronics and automotive sectors [5] Group 3: Economic Growth Indicators - The digital trade scale in Hangzhou surpassed 750 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 15% [3] - Chongqing's industrial added value exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, with foreign direct investment increasing by 18% [4] - Wuhan's new energy vehicle production grew by 35%, with export values reaching 20 billion USD [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant transformation in local fiscal revenue patterns in China as of the third quarter of 2025, with cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen leading in fiscal income, reflecting the country's shift towards high-quality economic development [1][10]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Rankings - Shanghai ranks first with a fiscal revenue of 655.57 billion, followed by Beijing at 503.99 billion and Shenzhen at 313.21 billion [6]. - Hangzhou maintains the fourth position with 220 billion, while Tianjin surpasses Guangzhou with 167.8 billion compared to Guangzhou's 163.21 billion [6][10]. - Hefei enters the top twenty for the first time with a notable performance of 74.58 billion [1][6]. Group 2: Economic Drivers - Hangzhou's fiscal resilience is attributed to its strong digital economy, with a slight increase in public budget revenue and significant contributions from tech giants like Ant Group and Alibaba Cloud [3]. - Tianjin's growth is driven by the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, with new projects in aerospace and petrochemicals boosting tax revenue [5][10]. - Hefei's remarkable growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with a 42% increase in tax revenue, showcases its successful long-term investment strategy in technology and innovation [7]. Group 3: Insights Beyond the Data - The article emphasizes that fiscal health should be assessed through various dimensions, including industrial structure and innovation concentration, rather than solely relying on revenue rankings [9]. - Cities like Ningbo and Xi'an demonstrate strong potential despite their current rankings, indicating that future market dynamics may shift based on emerging industries [9][10]. - Guangzhou's growth in the new generation information technology service sector, with a 24% tax revenue increase, suggests a possible future reshaping of the economic landscape [9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba's comprehensive profitability will reach an inflection point in Q3 2025 and significantly recover in Q4, driven by a substantial reduction in losses from the food delivery business and accelerated growth in cloud services due to strong AI demand [1][2][3] Business Performance - The food delivery business is expected to see a 40% quarter-on-quarter reduction in losses, projected to narrow to approximately 21 billion yuan by Q4 2025 [1][3][4] - The cloud business is anticipated to grow by 37% year-on-year in Q4 2025, benefiting from robust AI demand [1][3][7] Strategic Shift - Alibaba's strategic focus is shifting from a user-scale-driven growth model to a more efficient, profitability-driven approach, indicating a fundamental transformation in its growth strategy [2][5][6] Financial Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its revenue forecasts for Alibaba, lowering the projections for FY26 and FY27 by 1% and 2% respectively, due to high base effects impacting customer management revenue (CMR) growth [8] - Despite these adjustments, the firm maintains a positive outlook on Alibaba's stock, reiterating a "buy" rating and setting new target prices of $230 for US shares and HK$225 for Hong Kong shares [3][8] Market Dynamics - The flash purchase business is showing a clear path to profitability, with unit economic losses halving compared to July/August, driven by improved product mix and reduced delivery costs [4][6] - The cloud business is experiencing strong demand that exceeds supply capabilities, leading to potential increases in capital expenditures beyond the planned 380 billion yuan over three years [6][7]

Group 1 - Vitasoy International (00345) reported a 6% year-on-year decrease in revenue and a 7% decrease in gross profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions in mainland China [1] - Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719) saw a rise of over 2% after receiving approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the registration of a drug [1] - China Biologic Products (01177) increased by over 2% following the publication of positive Phase II clinical trial results for TQB2102 in HER2-positive breast cancer in a prestigious journal [1] - GDS Holdings (09698) rose over 4% after reporting a net income of 2.887 billion RMB for Q3, a 10.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit margin of 25.2% [1] Group 2 - GaYa Optical (00907) surged by 49.12% after announcing a profit forecast of 8.8 million to 9.6 million HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 13.8 million HKD in the same period last year [2] - Green Leaf Pharmaceutical (02186) rose nearly 2% after announcing FDA approval for clinical trials of a new drug [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) increased by over 5% after receiving approval for clinical trials of two drugs [2] - Meituan-W (03690) saw a 6% rise as Alibaba's CFO announced increased investment in Taobao Flash Purchase [2] Group 3 - Alibaba Group (09988) experienced a nearly 2% drop after reporting a 5% year-on-year revenue increase for Q2, but a significant 78% decline in adjusted EBITA [3] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) rose nearly 4% after announcing successful Phase III trial results for a drug in treating non-small cell lung cancer [4] Group 4 - Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US) surged by 37.54% after reporting Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations with an adjusted EPS of $2.36 and a 7% year-on-year sales increase [5] - Symbotic (SYM.US) rose by 39.36% after reporting Q4 revenue of $618 million despite a net loss [5] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) increased by 4.65% following positive results for a new weight loss and diabetes drug [5] - Kohl's (KSS.US) saw a 42.53% increase after exceeding Q3 earnings expectations and raising full-year guidance [6] - Alibaba (BABA.US) rose by 2.31% after reporting a 5% year-on-year revenue increase, although adjusted net profit fell by 72% [6] - Pony.ai (PONY.US) increased by 5.88% after announcing profitability for its seventh-generation Robotaxi [6]

每日晨报│2025 年 11 月 26 日 | 主要市场指数表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | 恒生指数 | 25,894 | +0.69% | +29.09% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,612 | +1.20% | +25.60% | | 国企指数 | 9,158 | +0.87% | +25.63% | | 沪深 300 | 4,490 | +0.95% | +14.12% | | 上证综合指数 | 3,870 | +0.87% | +15.46% | | 深证成份指数 | 12,777 | +1.53% | +22.69% | | 中小板指 | 7,794 | +1.81% | +22.13% | | 道琼斯指数 | 47,112 | +1.43% | +10.74% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,765 | +0.91% | +15.03% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,025 | +0.67% | +19.24% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 9,609 | +0.78% | +17.58% | ...