广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年 5 月 7 日，央行、国家金融监管总局与证监会在国新办新闻发布会上介绍"一揽子金融政策 支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，宣布了一揽子逆周期调节政策。我们理解，这是 4 月 25 日政治局会议"加强 超常规逆周期调节"精神的落地。政策涉及内容较多，我们可以简单理解为货币政策、房地产政策、金融政 策、市场政策四个方面。 第二， 货币政策举措共有十项，其中较为关键的包括：（ 1 ）降准 50BP ，投放大约 1 万亿元流动性；（ 2 ）降息 10BP ，引导 LPR 下降 10BP ；（ 3 ）结构性工具降息 25BP ，科创与技术改造再贷款、支农 支小再贷款额度均增加 3000 亿元，创设服务消费与养老再贷款（ 5000 亿元额度）与科技创新债券风险分 担工具，汽车金融公司与金融租赁公司法准率降至 0% 等。与 924 新闻发布会提出的"降准 50BP+ 降息 20BP "组合相比，这次"降准 50BP+ 降息 10BP+ 结构性工具降息 25BP+ 结构性工具扩容 1.1 万 亿 元"的组合 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 50 basis point (bp) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity[3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10bp to 1.40%, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) also adjusted downwards by 10bp[13] - The new re-lending policies include an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan in quotas, with 300 billion yuan allocated for technological innovation and 500 billion yuan for agriculture and small enterprises[4] Economic Outlook and Market Response - The interest rate cuts were less than previously anticipated, with expectations of 30-40bp reductions over the year, but the first cut was only 10bp, implemented quickly on May 8[2] - The current monetary policy reflects a cautious approach towards external uncertainties, particularly regarding US-China negotiations, leaving room for future adjustments[2] - The bond market showed a steepening yield curve, with short-term rates declining by 1-3bp while long-term rates increased by 1-3bp, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[7] Structural Support and Future Implications - The meeting emphasized the importance of structural monetary tools, with a focus on supporting consumption and technological innovation, indicating a shift from broad-based measures to targeted interventions[5] - The central bank's actions are seen as preemptive measures against external shocks, suggesting that the recent cuts may only be the beginning of a broader easing cycle rather than a conclusive end[5] - The emphasis on long-term capital market support aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent prolonged downturns, with a focus on enhancing the participation of institutional investors[9]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the same margin [3][4] - The central bank's actions are seen as a clear signal of "appropriate easing" aimed at stabilizing growth and the market, especially in light of ongoing external tariff disputes affecting exports and the economy [3][4] - The current economic growth rate is reported at 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend following policy interventions in the previous year [3] Group 2: Stock Market Support - The central bank and the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. are set to support the stock market by enhancing liquidity and providing backing for index fund purchases [5][6] - A total of 800 billion yuan has been allocated for two financial tools aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which will be utilized when the market is significantly undervalued [5][6] - The A-share market showed stability with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.8% and 0.51%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment following the announcement [6] Group 3: Real Estate Market Policies - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rate for first-time homebuyers set at 2.6% for loans over five years [8][9] - The new policies are expected to alleviate repayment pressures for homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption, contributing positively to market confidence [8][9] - The government is also working on optimizing financing systems related to real estate development, which is anticipated to improve funding conditions for enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Consumer Spending Initiatives - A new 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan program has been established to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and service consumption [11] - The policy aims to create a positive cycle of stabilizing the real estate market, boosting consumption, and enhancing investment [11] - The central bank has also reduced reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies by 5 percentage points to further support consumer spending [11] Group 5: Support for Technological Innovation - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for loans aimed at technological innovation and upgrades, bringing the total to 800 billion yuan [12][13] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds is being supported through various measures to enhance funding for innovative enterprises [13][14] - Multiple securities firms and tech companies are preparing to issue innovation bonds, indicating a proactive approach to funding in the sector [14]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, particularly in response to recent economic challenges [2][3][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance economic stability, especially in light of weaker domestic economic data and a declining US dollar index [3][6] Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC's measures include quantity-based policies such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and adjusting policy interest rates, which aim to increase long-term liquidity supply [3][8] - Specific actions include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates and a similar reduction in housing provident fund loan rates, with the five-year rate for first-time homebuyers dropping to 2.85% [3][8] - The PBOC plans to enhance the monetary policy framework and improve the transmission mechanism to ensure effective resource allocation [3][6] Financial Sector Support - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) is introducing policies to support the real estate market, including new financing systems tailored to the evolving real estate development model [4][8] - The report outlines initiatives to expand the scope of long-term insurance fund investments and reduce investment risk factors for insurance companies, thereby stabilizing the capital market [4][8] - The CBIRC is also focused on facilitating financing for small and private enterprises, as well as enhancing support for foreign trade [4][8] Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to maintaining a stable and active capital market, with plans to support the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in its role as a stabilizing fund [5][8] - The CSRC aims to promote the development of technology innovation bonds and enhance the quality of public funds, fostering a positive cycle of returns, capital inflow, and market stability [5][8] - Upcoming reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market are expected to improve market inclusivity and adaptability [5][8] Economic Outlook - The report notes a significant decline in the new export orders index, which fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating a challenging external environment [6] - The need for proactive policy measures is underscored, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations amid complex global conditions [6][8]

Group 1: Financial Policy Overview - The State Council's recent announcement of a comprehensive financial policy aims to stabilize the market and manage expectations, reflecting a shift from emergency measures to deep institutional reforms in the capital market [6][17] - The policy framework, centered around the new "National Nine Articles," seeks to reconstruct market expectation management mechanisms through multi-dimensional institutional adjustments [6][7] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes supporting listed companies in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a pathway for transformation and upgrading, which is crucial for enhancing risk resilience and international competitiveness [3][4] - M&A serves as a core engine for industrial upgrading, enabling companies to acquire advanced technologies and quality assets, thus facilitating rapid development in a fast-evolving technological landscape [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, alongside a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy rates [8][17] - This monetary policy adjustment is anticipated to stimulate financing demand from enterprises and households, promoting investment and consumption to counter external volatility [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market Support - The reduction of the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the rate for first-time homebuyers to 2.6%, is expected to enhance the effectiveness of housing policies and support consumer demand [15][16] - The combination of reduced rates and increased liquidity from the reserve requirement cut is projected to bolster the stability of the real estate market, which remains a focus for commercial banks [14][15] Group 5: Public Fund Reforms - The new action plan for public fund development aims to enhance investor satisfaction by aligning fund performance with investor interests, shifting the focus from scale to returns [12][13] - Key highlights of the reform include improving the stability of fund investment behavior and expanding equity fund offerings to provide diverse investment options for investors [12][13]

人民银行降准降息，加大对科创企业金融 支持 2025 年 5 月 7 日 宏观经济 事件点评 ——5 月 7 日人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会发布会点评 | | | 事件： 人民银行、金融监管总局，证监会发布会，人民银行降准 50bp，降政策利率 10bp，降结构性贷款和住房贷款利率 25bp。 主要观点： 一行一局一会领导肯定了一季度经济表现和资本市场的应对表现，同时没有回避当前关税对全球和国内经济和金融体系的影 响。央行表示将坚定维护中国的汇市、债市、股市等金融市场平稳运行；证监会表示将努力在市场运行上体现"稳"，同时 在激发市场活力、强化市场功能上体现"进"。政策总体向企业端倾斜。 货币政策保持货币宽松，降低资金成本，释放长期流动性资金，以及扩大定向贷款额度。降准降息符合市场预期。此外, 定 向对汽车金融、金融租赁公司存准率阶段性降至 0。定向贷款方向符合政治局会议的政策方向，包括"两新"、服务和养老消 费、小微企业以及科技企业。 对科技企业的金融支持愈加具体。一体现在扩大两新贷款额度 3000 亿。二体现在一行一局一会对科技企业融资方面的全方 位支持。从证监会大力发展科技创新债券，优化发行注册流程，到 ...

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、中国证券 监督管理委员会主席吴清出席会议，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 来源：国新网 会上，潘功胜表示，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿。同时，下调政策利 率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。 此外，潘功胜还表示，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五年期以上首套房利率从2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。 监管机构负责人集体亮相，此次"一揽子金融政策"有何看点？将如何提振市场信心？后续市场又将如何发展？ 各大机构先后给出分析。 三大类型共10项具体政策 机构：释放强烈宏观调控信号，增加市场长期流动性 据潘功胜介绍，本次央行推出10项具体政策，主要分为数量型政策、价格型政策和结构型政策，包括降准释 放长期流动性、下调各类利率、创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具等，支持科技创新、消费、外贸等领域 发展。 中泰证券分析师何佳烨表示，与去年 ...

文/李悦 曹萌 刘思嘉 5月7日上午9时 ， 在沪深两市开盘前半小时， 中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云 泽、中国证监会主席吴清罕见 集体 亮相国务院新闻办发布会 ， 介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况 ， 一次性 抛出 货币政策 十项措施 、 金融监管 八项增量政策 ， 以及 活跃资本 市场 多项 举措 。 在业内人士看来，这场新闻发布会 在举办 时点 、会议内容 等方面 明显超出市场预期。 中泰证券指出， 首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告。其次是均为一把手出席，市场之前对出席 的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股 市。 除了落实4月25日政治局会议外，可能也和4月官方制造业 PMI弱于季节性有关。 对比 去年 9 月 24 日的 新闻发布会 来 看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 反应 相对平稳 ， 三大指数 高开后震荡回落，深证成指、创业板指一度翻绿，临近收盘有所拉升。截至收盘，沪指涨0.80%， 深证成指涨0.22%，创业板指涨0.51%。 中泰证券认为， 一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取得了积极成效，这和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which will positively impact economic growth and improve people's livelihoods [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced 10 measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3][4]. - The PBOC will also lower the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to reduce housing costs for residents and stimulate housing consumption [3][4]. Group 2: Support for Innovation and Consumption - The PBOC has increased the quota for re-loans for technological innovation and transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting the implementation of "two new" policies [4]. - A new 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" will be established to encourage banks to increase credit support for service consumption and elderly care [4]. Group 3: Support for Enterprises and Foreign Trade - The National Financial Supervision Administration plans to introduce a package of policies to support financing for small and private enterprises, aiding in stabilizing businesses and the economy [4]. - Policies will be developed to support foreign trade development, particularly for entities affected by tariff impacts, providing targeted assistance to stabilize operations and expand markets [4]. Group 4: Coordination of Policies - There is a need to enhance the precision of monetary policy and ensure that financial services effectively support the real economy, addressing practical issues and difficulties encountered in economic development [5]. - Strengthening the consistency between monetary and fiscal policies is essential to maximize the effectiveness of financial policy in stabilizing the market and expectations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating for this specific topic is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 7, 2025, the central bank introduced a package of 10 policies covering quantitative, price - based, and structural aspects, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [2][6] - Since the Trump tariff policy shock in April 2025, China's financial market has remained stable, and the package of monetary policies, though largely within market expectations, is more forceful than expected [2][11] - For the bond market, the current situation shows pressure on banks' liability - side and a flattened yield curve. The current policy is expected to ease banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure, lower the funds rate to make the yield curve steeper, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield may fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][12][13] - Future attention should be paid to the impact of bond supply and changes in the economic fundamentals and policies, especially the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 One - Package Monetary Policy Details Quantitative Policies - Lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market - Temporarily reduce the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [6] Price - Based Policies - Cut the policy rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the LPR expected to decline by about 0.1 percentage points accordingly - Lower the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25 percentage points (PSL from 2.25% to 2%, others from 1.75% to 1.5%) - Reduce the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points [6] Structural Policies - Increase the re - loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan - Establish a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care - Add 300 billion yuan to the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses - Optimize two monetary policy tools for the capital market, combining the 50 - billion - yuan swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies and the 30 - billion - yuan re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, with a total quota of 80 billion yuan - Create a risk - sharing tool for technological innovation bonds [7] 3.2 Comparison with the 2024 Policy - Similarity: Both times the central bank announced reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, responding to the call for a moderately loose monetary policy - Differences: In 2025, the policy rate cut was 10BP with the same LPR cut, and the structural monetary policy tool rate was cut by 25BP. The incremental scale of structural monetary policy tools was 1.1 trillion yuan, larger than the 800 billion yuan in 2024 [2][8][12] 3.3 Impact on the Bond Market - Current Situation: After the central bank loosened its focus on funds prices, the funds rate has been approaching the policy rate but not yet stabilizing at 1.6%. The bank's net lending scale has been fluctuating around 3 trillion yuan, and the first - level issuance rate of certificates of deposit has faced a downward bottleneck. The yield curve has flattened further, with the 10Y - 2Y Treasury bond spread narrowing from 23BP at the beginning of April to 17BP at the end of April [2][12] - Policy Impact: The reserve requirement ratio cut can relieve banks' medium - and long - term liquidity pressure. A significant decline in the funds rate will steepen the yield curve, and the short - end rate has greater certainty. The long - end rate may break through the 1.6% level and fall to the 1.5% - 1.6% range [2][13] 3.4 Future Focus - Bond Supply: Pay attention to the impact of the accelerated issuance of Treasury bonds and the large supply of ultra - long - term bonds - Economic Fundamentals and Policies: The PMI in April decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49, and the impact of trade frictions on exports is expected to be more obvious in May. Focus on the Sino - US trade negotiations from May 9 - 12 [2][13]