1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the beginning of 2026 seems to mirror the situation at the beginning of 2025. Despite short - term uncertainties, considering the rapid decline in duration and the central bank's supportive attitude, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited. Once the impacts of factors such as supply, credit, and the A - share market are weaker than expected, the bond market may continue to follow the mirror image of early 2025 and experience a recovery [2][10]. - At present, the A - share and commodity price trends are not sufficient to trigger a reversal in the bond market direction. During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks [8][10]. - It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position, focus on 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds in the short term, and trade long - term bond bands opportunistically according to market conditions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. The Market Adjustment Since the Beginning of the Year is Due to Traders' Concerns about Supply Rather Than the Supply Shock Itself - The core concern in the market is the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds. The market adjustment is affected by the large issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January and the high proportion of ultra - long local bonds in some regions [3][16]. - Although the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January has increased, the net financing scale of treasury bonds in Q1 2026 is only slightly higher than that of the same period last year. The estimated net financing scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be lower than that of the same period in 2025 [20][26]. - Local governments may prefer to issue long - term bonds because refinancing bonds cannot fully cover the maturing local debt. However, the national fiscal work conference emphasizes optimizing the government bond tool portfolio, so the issuance term of local bonds may not be further extended compared to 2025 [3][30]. - The recent market adjustment is mainly caused by the large - scale net selling of public funds and securities firms. It is more of an emotional weakening due to supply concerns rather than a substantial impact. As long as the 30 - year treasury bond is the most actively traded, its pricing is still determined by traders, and it has shown higher cost - effectiveness after the recent adjustment [4][31][37]. 3.2. If External Disturbances Are Weaker Than Expected, the Bond Market May Follow the Mirror Image of Early 2025 and Experience a Recovery - Despite the continuous net withdrawal of OMO and the non - excessive renewal of 3M repurchase, the loose capital state continues, which may be related to the year - end fiscal deposit release and the central bank's supportive attitude. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January has significantly increased, and the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds is also expected to rise [41][43][45]. - Historically, supply shocks have a greater impact on the bond market in a tight liquidity environment. Currently, the central bank's attitude is supportive, and the bank's liabilities do not show obvious pressure, so the supply shock may be less than expected. The central bank has the motivation to solve the problem of the supply - demand imbalance of government bonds [47][49]. 3.3. Wait for the Impact of Risk Preference Changes to Gradually Fade - The bond market adjustment is also related to the continuous rise of the A - share and commodity prices. However, as the upward slope of the A - share market becomes steeper, its volatility increases, and the impact on the bond market has weakened. The rise in commodity prices may be short - term, and the recovery of CPI still faces challenges [50][51][56]. - During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks. Although short - term uncertainties remain, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent bond market [64][71].

Group 1 - The core view of the report suggests that the resilience of credit bonds observed at the beginning of the year may continue, with a recommendation to focus on riding opportunities in the 3Y-1Y segment [1] - The net financing for major credit bond varieties turned positive last week, with a total issuance of 2507.8 billion and a net financing of 1280.8 billion, reversing from a negative net financing of -636.4 billion in the previous week [5][6] - The issuance of short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, and corporate bonds increased compared to the previous week, indicating a growing market activity [5][6] Group 2 - Secondary market transactions saw a significant increase, with total transactions reaching 7959 billion, up from 2964 billion in the previous week, indicating a warming market [8][9] - The yield on medium-term notes showed mixed movements, with the 3-year AAA medium-term note yield rising by 0.03 basis points to 1.89%, while the 3-year AA+ medium-term note yield fell by 0.97 basis points to 1.98% [8][9] - The credit rating adjustments showed no changes in issuer ratings, and there were no reported defaults during the week [5][6]

Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The core issue in the bond market lies in demand rather than supply. In early 2026, the bond market continued to adjust. Although there was a high - volume supply of government bonds and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms, the rapid post - New Year loosening of the capital market and the "bear - steep" adjustment of the curve indicated that supply was not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure offset the impact of the change in local bond issuance terms [6][13]. - The root cause is the active contraction of bond investment by institutions. Since 2025, banks have been actively reducing bond investment, similar to the situation in 2016 - 2017, but the current reason is the low interest rate, which makes the return unable to cover the cost. Fund and fixed - income asset management products have been continuously redeemed, leading to large - scale bond sales [6][23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, three aspects can be considered: reigniting the market's expectation of a significant interest rate decline, the central bank taking further steps in directly purchasing long - term bonds, and increasing the necessity of strongly stimulating the economy to promote banks' rapid re - expansion of their balance sheets and spill - over into bond investment [6]. - In the short term, the overall demand problem in the bond market is difficult to solve. It is advisable to focus on structural demand changes, especially in wealth management products. Wealth management products may gradually shift to slightly longer - duration products for returns. Attention can be paid to the riding value of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, 1 - 2Y industrial bonds, and appropriate credit picking of high - quality urban and rural commercial banks for sub - perpetual bonds within 3Y, and trading opportunities for 3 - 4Y sub - perpetual bonds [6][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some believe the bond market adjustment in 2026 is due to supply expansion, with the first - week government bond net issuance reaching a new high and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms [6][10]. - However, the core problem is on the demand side. The post - New Year capital loosening and "bear - steep" curve adjustment show that supply is not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure has kept the spread between local and national bonds stable [13][15]. - Institutions are actively reducing bond investment. Since 2025, banks' bond investment contraction is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, but currently due to low interest rates. Fund and fixed - income asset management products are being redeemed, leading to bond sales [23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, consider reigniting interest rate decline expectations, central bank action on long - bond purchases, and economic stimulus [23]. - In the short term, focus on wealth management products. They may shift to longer - duration products for returns, and attention can be paid to specific bond types [27]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - **Release of December Financial Data**: This week, China will release December financial data, and the US will release December CPI and other data [30]. - **Interest - Rate Bond Issuance**: The expected issuance volume of interest - rate bonds this week is around 427.2 billion yuan, including 207 billion yuan of national bonds, 70.2 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy - bank financial bonds, which is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years [30][31]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal**: Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 165.5 billion yuan. After the New Year, the reverse repurchase maturity volume was high, and the capital market had a seasonal volume increase and price increase, with the increase in price being controllable [34][35]. - **Interest - Rate Adjustment at the Beginning of the Year**: The new fund fee regulations before New Year's Day were beneficial to bond - fund liabilities, but the market quickly took profits after the interest - rate decline. Concerns about government bond supply and the strong start of the equity market suppressed bond - market sentiment. Finally, the yields of most interest - rate bonds increased, with only the 1 - year national bond yield falling by 4.9bp, and the 3 - year national bond yield rising the most, by about 7.8bp [49]. 4. High - Frequency Data - **Production Side**: There was a divergence in operating rates. The blast - furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. In late December, the daily average crude - steel output had a wider year - on - year decline of 14.8% [52]. - **Demand Side**: The year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales improved rapidly. In the week of December 31, the year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales were 45% and 17% respectively. The year - on - year decline in the commercial - housing transaction area narrowed. In the week of January 4, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area had a seasonal decline and a large year - on - year decline. The commercial - housing sales area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 2.75 million square meters, with a narrowed year - on - year decline of 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [52]. - **Price Side**: Crude - oil prices recovered, copper and aluminum prices increased, coal prices diverged, the mid - stream building - material composite price index increased slightly, and downstream vegetable and fruit prices decreased while pork prices increased. The rebar inventory decreased to a low level of 283 tons, and the futures price increased by 0.6% [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and standing above 4100 points. The market trading remained highly active, with Friday's turnover reaching 3 trillion and the margin trading balance exceeding 2.6 trillion. The market was mainly driven by bottom - up growth themes, with technology - related sectors like AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces rotating. The small and medium - cap style was dominant [3][12]. - In the short term, the overseas US employment market has resilience but also structural pressure. Inflation data is not expected to have a strong rebound, and the market has digested the possibility of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January. Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term, with limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply - demand of market funds is neutral to optimistic, and with the profit - making effect, off - market funds may continue to flow in, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend [3][14]. - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with long - term yields generally weakening. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is still low. The bond market lacks positive catalysts, and it may have a short - term rebound but is likely to remain neutral in the medium term, with a dominant wait - and - see sentiment [4][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued to rise, with major broad - based indices generally increasing and reaching new stage highs. The trading volume on Friday returned to the peak of 3 trillion, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2.6 trillion. The market was driven by growth themes such as AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces, with the small and medium - cap style being dominant [12]. - Sector Analysis: The brain - computer interface sector was active this week. Expectations of Neuralink's mass production, the establishment of Gestalt Technology in China, and market expectations for the "14th Five - Year Plan" drove the sector's sentiment. The sector may maintain its popularity with the upcoming "2026 Brain - Computer Interface Developers Conference" and other positive news. The aerospace sector had a continuous rally, driven by factors such as the IPO boom in the commercial space field, policy support, and satellite constellation plans. The growth of the growth sector was also related to the CES 2026 exhibition, with the intelligent vehicle and robot sectors being catalyzed by the "physical AI" concept and the focus on the autonomous driving ecosystem and mass production plans at the CES 2026 [12][13]. - Outlook: Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term with limited impact on the domestic market. The market funds' supply - demand is neutral to optimistic, and off - market funds may continue to flow in. However, the establishment of a fundamental one - sided trend still needs the verification of better - than - expected domestic demand. It is recommended that funds that missed the previous rally wait patiently for policy clues during the "Two Sessions" to seek more certain allocation opportunities [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Bond Market: Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with the 1 - year Treasury yield falling 4.35BP to 1.29%, the 10 - year yield rising 3.55BP to 1.88%, and the 30 - year yield rising 4.95BP to 2.30%. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is low, and it may have a short - term rebound but remain neutral in the medium term [4][15]. - US Treasury Bonds: The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week, with short - term yields rising and long - term yields falling. The 1 - year yield rose 5BP to 3.52%, the 2 - year yield rose 7BP to 3.54%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1BP to 4.18%. The market believes the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term is small [15][16]. - REITs: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 1.89% last week, closing at 1028.93 points. Four new public REITs made progress in the primary market [16]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects 15 funds in each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and matches the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection Index**: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [20]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. The index selects 10 relatively balanced, value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [22]. - **Growth Stock Fund Selection Index**: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [24][26]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [28]. - **Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [31]. - **Technology Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [34]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [37]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum & Chemicals, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [41]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds in passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [44]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [46]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions. [48] 2.6. Fixed - Income + Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [49][52]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [52]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [56]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: It selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [59]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions, with underlying assets being overseas bonds [61]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026, the bond market experienced significant adjustments. The main reasons were that the central bank's open - market bond purchases in December 2025 were only 50 billion yuan, not increasing as expected, and the stock market had a strong start, causing funds to flow from the bond market to the stock market. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect was the more important factor suppressing the bond market. It is expected that the allocation funds in the bond market will be diverted by the stock market. In the next week, the release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, while long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the 1.9% stage high, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][16][17] - Last week, gold in the cross - year market quickly rebounded to the previous high of $4,500 per ounce after a short - term plunge and is about to break through the previous high. The RMB exchange rate also had a short - term correction, but based on the expectation of loose fiscal and monetary policies in major global economies and their higher tendency of fiscal deficit monetization than China, the previous bullish view is continued. Crude oil is marginally bullish in terms of total demand and short - term bullish but long - term bearish in terms of total supply, and is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern [2] - In the medium - term thinking framework, the two - sector model of "an overheated technology sector + a cold traditional sector" should be continued. The growth engine shows structural characteristics, with monetary policy supporting the traditional sector and fiscal policy guiding the technology sector. The driving force of investment is greater than that of consumption, and domestic demand is more important than external demand, which is not limited to specific transitional economies [2][20] - The US unemployment rate in December 2026 slightly decreased, but new employment was lower than expected. The number of non - farm payrolls also decreased, and the labor market is gradually entering a low - speed equilibrium stage, which makes the Fed more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 24.4%, which is relatively low [4][21][26] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints - **Analysis of bond market adjustment in the first week of 2026**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.8bp. Through daily analysis, factors such as the relaxation of bond fund redemption fee regulations, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the central bank's bond - buying volume, and market expectations all affected the bond market. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment were the central bank's bond - buying volume in December 2025 not meeting expectations and the strong start of the stock market [1][11][16] - **Analysis of future trends**: The release of December's financial data is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Short - term interest rates will remain stable, long - term interest rates are more affected by the stock market, and the yield curve is expected to steepen. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.9%, investors can enter the market [1][16][17] 2. Summary of Domestic and Foreign Data 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From January 5 to 9, 2026, the net investment in open - market operations showed a large - scale net withdrawal in the early stage and a net investment in the later stage. The total amount of net investment was - 122.14 billion yuan [36] - **Interest rate data**: The money market interest rate decreased last week compared with the previous week. The issuance volume of interest - rate bonds last week was 918.813 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 697.556 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 221.257 billion yuan [37][38][41] 2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity price data**: Steel prices generally rose, and the official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. The price of rebar rose by 17 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc, lead, copper, and aluminum futures all increased to varying degrees [55] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance scale and type**: Last week, 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 117.664 billion yuan, including 29.23 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 87.434 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 1 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 117.664 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [65] - **Issuing regions**: Three provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and two provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 29.23 billion yuan. From January 1 to last week, the total amount of local special refinancing special bonds issued nationwide was 2,202.521 billion yuan [69] - **Early redemption of urban investment bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds last week was 1.33 billion yuan, from Zhejiang and Gansu provinces. From November 15, 2024, to last week, the total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds nationwide was 118.207 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [75][79] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Transaction volume and turnover rate**: The stock of local government bonds last week was 54.73 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 310.211 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.57%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three trading - active maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 7Y [82] - **Yield to maturity**: The yield to maturity of local government bonds decreased across the board last week [87] 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for this Month - Not elaborated in detail, only a chart of the issuance plan is provided [88] 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total issuance and net financing amount**: Last week, 336 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 269.892 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.743 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 131.149 billion yuan, an increase of 192.849 billion yuan compared with the previous week [88] - **Issuance by type**: The net financing amount of urban investment bonds was 28.226 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 102.923 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 38.817 billion yuan, that of medium - term notes was 47.129 billion yuan, that of enterprise bonds was - 2.881 billion yuan, that of corporate bonds was 45.019 billion yuan, and that of private placement notes was 3.065 billion yuan [90][93] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills decreased by 4.43bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 11.93bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 58.69bp [103] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds last week was 558.53 billion yuan, with short - term financing bills having a trading volume of 159.816 billion yuan, medium - term notes having a trading volume of 294.315 billion yuan, enterprise bonds having a trading volume of 11.128 billion yuan, corporate bonds having a trading volume of 38.844 billion yuan, and private placement notes having a trading volume of 54.428 billion yuan [103] 4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yield to maturity of state - owned development bonds increased across the board. The yields of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [104][105][106] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally showed a differentiated trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [108][109][113] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed across the board [115][119][123] 4.7 Trading Activity - The most actively traded credit bonds last week were mainly from large - scale enterprises such as Yili and Huijin. The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, daily consumption, and materials [127] 4.8 Issuer's Rating Changes - Not elaborated in detail, only a table of issuer's rating or outlook improvement is provided [128]

Core Insights - The current U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with non-farm payroll data indicating a divergence that reshapes Federal Reserve policy expectations and triggers a new round of global asset market dynamics [2] Group 1: Non-Farm Data Analysis - In September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating a rare divergence of rising employment alongside increasing unemployment [3] - The increase in labor supply, with approximately 500,000 workers re-entering the market, counteracted the positive effects of new job creation, leading to this data divergence [3] - Statistical peculiarities, such as a 75.6% response rate from surveyed companies in August and the late reporting of employment data, contributed to the inflated job numbers in September [3] Group 2: December Non-Farm Report Insights - The December non-farm report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% [4] - The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest performance since 2020, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024 [4] - The three-month moving average indicated a decline of 22,000 jobs, suggesting potential suppression of consumer spending [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The non-farm data has been pivotal in shaping market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments, with a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in January from 11.6% to 2.8% [6] - The market's cautious stance reflects a balance between economic resilience and policy uncertainty, as indicated by the high yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [9] Group 4: Asset Market Reactions - The precious metals market saw gold prices rise above $4,600 per ounce, driven by soft non-farm data and geopolitical risks, while silver prices also reached historical highs [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.2%, showing a typical negative correlation with precious metal prices, while the stock market may see renewed support for growth stocks if labor market weakness persists [9] Group 5: Comprehensive Data Analysis Approach - A multi-dimensional analysis approach is emphasized, focusing on employment quality, labor participation rate dynamics, and cross-verification with other economic indicators to avoid misinterpretation of single data points [10][13] - The upcoming December CPI data is expected to play a crucial role in determining future Federal Reserve policy, with potential implications for market discussions on policy easing [14]

Core Insights - Green bonds are increasingly recognized as a vital financial tool in addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development, with issuance volumes reaching new heights globally [2][5] - The rapid growth of the green bond market is driven by policy support, market demand, and investor preferences, with significant contributions from government incentives and the rise of ESG investment principles [5] Definition and Characteristics - Green bonds are specifically designed to fund environmentally friendly projects, with proceeds allocated to renewable energy, energy efficiency, pollution prevention, green buildings, and low-carbon transportation [4] - Unlike traditional bonds, green bonds require adherence to specific standards and independent third-party certification to ensure funds are used for genuine green projects, enhancing transparency and credibility in the capital markets [4] Market Growth - The global green bond issuance surpassed $1 trillion in 2023, marking a historic milestone, with China being a major player in the market, covering a wide range of projects from large infrastructure to small and medium-sized enterprises [5] - The growth trend is supported by various government policies, such as subsidies for carbon-neutral technology research and tax incentives for green projects, which provide a favorable environment for green bond issuance [5] Contribution to Low-Carbon Transition - Green bonds effectively channel social capital into green industries, accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy by funding projects in renewable energy, energy-efficient buildings, and low-carbon transportation infrastructure [6] - They also lower financing costs for companies, as investors are often willing to accept lower yields for green projects, creating a "green premium" that encourages more issuances [6] Participation of Individual Investors - Green bonds are accessible to individual investors through various green financial products offered by banks and financial institutions, allowing them to contribute to sustainable development while earning stable returns [7] - Investors should pay attention to certification standards, transparency of fund usage, and the credibility of issuing institutions to ensure that investments yield both financial returns and environmental benefits [7] Future Outlook - The green bond market has significant growth potential as the global carbon neutrality agenda progresses, with more green innovation projects emerging and international green standards becoming more unified [9] - All stakeholders, including businesses, governments, and individuals, can engage in this global green transformation through green bonds, moving closer to a cleaner, low-carbon future [9]

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The A-share market continued its upward trend in the first week of 2026 (January 5-9), with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 16-day winning streak and surpassing 4100 points. Major broad-based indices generally rose and reached new highs during the week [1][5] - Market trading remained highly active, with Friday's trading volume returning to the peak of 3 trillion yuan, and the margin financing and securities lending scale exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [1][5] - The market's robust performance was primarily driven by bottom-up growth themes, particularly in technology sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces, with small and mid-cap stocks significantly outperforming [1][5] - The brain-computer interface sector was notably active, driven by expectations of Neuralink's mass production and the establishment of domestic companies, alongside positive sentiment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] - The commercial aerospace sector also saw continuous attention due to an IPO boom and supportive policies, with funds increasingly focusing on sub-sectors like space computing and solar power in space [6] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market experienced a "V-shaped reversal" during the week, with the 1-year government bond yield declining by 4.35 basis points to 1.29%, while the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rose by 3.55 basis points to 1.88% and 4.95 basis points to 2.30%, respectively [2][9] - The bond market sentiment showed slight stabilization, but the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the medium term remains low, and further monetary policy easing is not expected [2][9] - Despite the better-than-expected implementation of new public fund fee regulations, the bond market lacks positive catalysts, and with the ongoing spring rally in the equity market, the bond market may experience short-term rebounds but is likely to maintain a neutral stance in the medium term [2][9] Macro Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market shows resilience but also structural pressures, with inflation data expected to have limited risk of a strong rebound. The market has already priced in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in January [7][8] - Overall market liquidity is neutral to optimistic, with potential continued inflows of external funds due to profit-taking effects, suggesting that the market may continue its upward trend [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market experienced a continuous increase in trading atmosphere in December 2025, with total transaction amounts showing year-on-year and month-on-month growth, particularly in credit bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December, the total transaction amount in the bond secondary market reached 376,780.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.75% and a month-on-month increase of 10.60% [1]. - The transaction amount for interest rate bonds was 219,753.95 billion, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 7.15% and 2.49%, respectively [3]. - Credit bonds saw a significant increase in transaction amounts, totaling 88,964.95 billion, with year-on-year growth of 17.90% and month-on-month growth of 21.31%, becoming the main driver of market growth [3]. Group 2: Credit Spread Analysis - The overall credit spread in December continued its fluctuating trend, ending the month at 42.32 basis points, with a cumulative narrowing of 24.01 basis points for the year, indicating an improved credit environment compared to the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Most industry credit spreads widened in December, with real estate, power equipment, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and social services having high spreads, while communication, electronics, public utilities, transportation, and non-ferrous metals had lower spreads [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The credit spread is expected to continue a narrow fluctuation and slight narrowing trend, supported by stable economic growth and a moderately loose liquidity environment, while facing pressures from government bond supply and overseas policy fluctuations [5]. - Factors supporting the narrowing of credit spreads include ongoing economic stability, continued easing of liquidity policies, and improvements in credit quality for local government financing platforms [5].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued focus on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 3 years or less, due to a stable funding environment and potential for interest rate arbitrage [6][9] - It suggests exploring opportunities in municipal bonds with maturities of 2-3 years and industrial bonds with maturities of 1-2 years, while advising caution on longer-term bonds due to increased uncertainty [6][9] - The report notes that the recent regulatory changes regarding bond fund fees have had limited positive impact, and thus, short-term bonds remain a more prudent investment choice [6][9] Group 2 - The credit bond market has seen a recovery in issuance levels, with a total of 269.9 billion yuan issued from January 5 to January 11, 2026, marking a significant net inflow of 131.1 billion yuan, the highest weekly net inflow since December of the previous year [14] - The average issuance costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with average coupon rates rising by 16 basis points and 7 basis points respectively [14][15] - Secondary market activity showed a slight increase in turnover rates, with credit spreads generally narrowing, although long-term bonds faced more pressure [14][19] Group 3 - The report indicates that credit spreads for various bond ratings have generally widened, with 5Y-1Y spreads increasing by 2-3 basis points, while AA rated bonds saw a slight narrowing of 2 basis points [20][22] - Municipal bond credit spreads have shown a slight contraction, averaging a reduction of about 3 basis points across provinces, with Tibet experiencing the largest decrease of 5 basis points [22] - Most industry credit spreads also contracted by 2-4 basis points, indicating a generally favorable trend in the credit market [22]