Report Date - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market continues to show high - level fluctuations. The price of the main contract of polysilicon remains high, and the spot price also rises. However, the terminal demand decline pressure will gradually spread to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the market needs more confirmed policies to break through the high - level resistance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract PS2511 closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 268,080 lots, and the open interest was 145,950 lots, with a net decrease of 3,260 lots [4] Future Outlook - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock is 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 49,000 yuan/ton, up 2.30% week - on - week. In September, due to the production limit and sales control policy, the monthly production is expected to be flat compared with the previous month, down from the previous expectation of 145,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.8GW, higher than the expected battery production. The terminal demand decline pressure will gradually spread to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the spot price increase has led the industry out of the loss - making situation. The market is mainly in high - level fluctuations and needs more confirmed policies to break through the resistance [4] 2. Market News - On September 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the newly - added installed capacity was 223.25GW. In July, the newly - added installed capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral, no specific ratings for other strategies [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation, no specific ratings for other strategies [5] Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon: With stable spot prices, significant supply increase, polysilicon self - disciplined production cuts in September on the consumer side, inventory may start to increase, and the industrial silicon market may experience weak and volatile operations influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes have been raised, downstream product prices have also increased. After self - disciplined production cuts in September, there is a certain reduction in supply, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved to some extent. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of (-25) yuan/ton or (-0.29)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279742 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50348 lots, a change of 319 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, cumulative production decreased by 20% year - on - year [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10500 - 10800 (-50) yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was cautious due to poor terminal demand, and monomer plants still adopted a strategy of offering discounts to secure orders [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a strong and volatile trend, opening at 52000 yuan/ton and closing at 52160 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 149210 lots, and the trading volume was 362759 lots [3] - Spot: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 49.00 - 54.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was priced at 48.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 213,000 tons, a - 14.29% month - on - month change; silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW, a 3.68% month - on - month change. Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.53% week - on - week change; silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, an 8.30% week - on - week change [3] - Industry Forecast: In September, the expected polysilicon production in China is less than 130,000 tons, mainly due to expected production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. Some second - and third - tier production lines have resumed production, offsetting part of the reduction [4] - Downstream Products: Silicon wafers, battery cells, and component prices remained stable [4]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,343, down 0.60% for the day and up 26.34% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.78% to 5,684, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose 0.51% to 6,448, with a year-to-date gain of 9.63%[3] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong experienced declines, impacting the overall market sentiment[9] - The banking, insurance, and brokerage sectors showed weak performance, contributing to the market downturn[9] - Real estate stocks weakened, with Shimao Group dropping over 6% and several others falling more than 3%[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. job openings fell to a 10-month low, indicating a gradual decrease in labor demand amid policy uncertainties[9] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month have risen to nearly 100%[9] Notable Stock Movements - Morgan Stanley raised its year-end gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, which positively influenced gold and precious metal stocks, with Zhaojin Mining and Lingbao Gold both rising over 6%[9] - Salesforce reported Q2 revenue of $10.24 billion, a 9.8% year-on-year increase, but its stock fell 4% post-earnings due to a less optimistic Q3 outlook[10] International Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 0.88% amid political uncertainties and reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes[13] - Foreign investment in the Japanese stock market has reached its highest level in a decade, indicating strong interest from international investors[13]

多晶硅日报 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 日期 2025 年 09 月 04 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the recent pricing trends in the domestic solar-grade polysilicon market, highlighting the price fluctuations of various types of polysilicon products as of September 3, 2025 [1]. Pricing Summary - The transaction price for n-type re-investment material is reported at a maximum of 5.20 million yuan per ton, a minimum of 4.70 million yuan per ton, and an average of 4.90 million yuan per ton, with a fluctuation of +0.11 million yuan and a percentage change of +2.30% [1]. - The transaction price for n-type dense material shows a maximum of 4.90 million yuan per ton, a minimum of 4.40 million yuan per ton, and an average of 4.57 million yuan per ton, with a fluctuation of +0.12 million yuan and a percentage change of +2.70% [1]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon is recorded at a maximum of 4.90 million yuan per ton, a minimum of 4.70 million yuan per ton, and an average of 4.80 million yuan per ton, with a fluctuation of +0.10 million yuan and a percentage change of +2.13% [1]. Participating Companies - The article lists several companies involved in the pricing statistics, including Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, Xinte Energy Co., Ltd., Dongfang Hope Group Co., Ltd., Asia Silicon Industry (Qinghai) Co., Ltd., Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Gones Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd. [2].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Photovoltaic stocks rose in the morning, with Xinyi Solar (00968) up over 3%, Fuyao Glass (03606) up over 3%, and GCL-Poly Energy (00451) up over 3%. Domestic leading polysilicon companies have raised prices, and the market is focused on the restructuring progress in the polysilicon industry [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) increased by over 5% after announcing the approval of HRS-7172 tablets for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration on September 2 [1] - Qingdao Bank (03866) rose over 2% as its major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 233 million to 291 million shares, recognizing the long-term investment value of the bank's stock [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by over 1%, with a total market value exceeding HKD 100 billion, and the company is accelerating overseas project construction, indicating future growth potential [1] - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) rose over 4%, with management optimistic about the new car market and smooth progress in the company's new energy business [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) increased by over 5% after disclosing its interim performance report, with core products driving growth and accelerating multiple self-immune phase III clinical trials [1] - United Laboratories (03933) rose over 6% after announcing a 27% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders in its half-year results, with key progress in several products in the formulation segment [1] Group 2: U.S. Stocks - NIO (NIO.US) rose 3.13%, with vehicle deliveries in August 2025 reaching 31,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, and total deliveries since 2025 reaching 166,472 units, up 30.0% [3] - Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) fell 2.91% as it plans to list in Hong Kong after passing the hearing [3] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 0.36% after Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy outperformed it in a real-world comparative study [3] - Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) increased by 0.73% after announcing that its drug was approved in Hong Kong for treating recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer [3] - Beike (BEKE.US) rose 4.89% after reporting a 11.3% year-on-year increase in net income for the second quarter, leading multiple institutions to reaffirm a "buy" rating [3] - Gold stocks rose against the trend, with Gold Resource (GORO.US) up 15.80%, Harmony Gold (HMY.US) up 7.53%, and Kinross Gold (KGC.US) up 2.68%, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [3] - Corning (GLW.US) rose 2.15% after UBS raised its target price from $65 to $84 and upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "buy" [4] - Li Auto (LI.US) rose 4.50% as the founder announced plans to fully enter the high-end pure electric SUV market [4]

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 09 月 03 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 多晶硅日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to a shift in expectations regarding supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by the "anti-involution" sentiment and potential policy changes [1][2][3] - As of September 2, the main contract for polysilicon futures closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.97% increase, driven by rising spot market prices and positive market sentiment [1] - Analysts suggest that the current supply-demand imbalance remains a core issue, with polysilicon production expected to increase to 120,000-130,000 tons in August, but inventory pressures are beginning to emerge [2] Group 2 - The current social inventory of polysilicon is estimated to be around 440,000-450,000 tons, with a shift from visible to hidden inventory as downstream companies engage in strategic stocking [2] - Market expectations for production cuts and policy adjustments are anticipated to influence future price movements, with analysts predicting that prices may remain high but could also face downward pressure if policy implementation is slow or weak [2][3] - The market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" versus "strong expectations," with a focus on the actual progress of debt-acquisition policies and the implementation of production control measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in polysilicon prices is influenced by renewed "anti-involution" sentiment and rising spot market quotes, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 2, the main contract for polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, marking a 3.97% increase [2] - Analysts indicate that the previous pressure from supply-demand imbalance and the temporary cooling of "anti-involution" sentiment had suppressed polysilicon prices [2] - The current average price for N-type polysilicon is reported at 51,100 yuan/ton, with major domestic polysilicon producers raising their quotes [2] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market remains unchanged, with a core issue of supply-demand imbalance [3] - In August, polysilicon production is expected to reach 120,000 to 130,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 to 20,000 tons month-on-month [3] - Current total social inventory of polysilicon is estimated to be between 440,000 to 450,000 tons, indicating increasing inventory pressure [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the increase in polysilicon production in August, there are expectations of production control in September, which may lead to a decrease in output [3] - The market is currently characterized by a "weak reality" and "strong expectations" dynamic, with a focus on policy developments and their impact on the market [4] - Analysts suggest that if policies are implemented slowly or lack strength, prices may adjust downward, while stronger-than-expected policies could lead to further price increases [3][4]