Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. Although industrial silicon rebounded significantly today driven by news, it plunged in the late trading session, and there are doubts about whether the upward trend can continue. Currently, the fundamentals do not support a substantial increase. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the main contract position is 283,578 lots, up 3,710 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 77,137 lots, up 14,988 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,613 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 615 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, up 0.21 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link. It is expected that the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links will be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to rise, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market remained flat this week, with slightly lower profits and a flat operating rate, which has limited driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, although the current operating rate is low, there is pressure from potential resumption of production and new production capacity; the short - term weak demand situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the cost support is obvious, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].

Group 1: Research Views - On August 20, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.89%. The position decreased by 6,737 lots to 279,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,407 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 440 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.52%. The position decreased by 12,109 lots to 150,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 7,305 yuan/ton [2]. - Southwest industrial silicon production continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry cut production and reduced procurement. The increase in polysilicon production was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between volume and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration could not relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. The actual production - restriction quotas and progress of the photovoltaic conference were still confidential, and market price - adjustment and production - restriction news was complex and divergent. Downstream players were highly skeptical and trading was scarce, which restricted the continuous upward movement of polysilicon. In the short term, short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued, and the industry's production - restriction news should be continuously monitored [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19 to 8,330 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,610 yuan/ton to 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades and regions generally declined. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China decreased from 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 340 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton [4]. - Among spot prices, the price of N - type granular silicon feedstock increased significantly, from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from - 7,760 yuan/ton to - 7,305 yuan/ton, a reduction of 455 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,625. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,930. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [34][35].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the industrial silicon futures market may experience a short - term correction. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, but it may be affected by the sentiment of other commodities and decline. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, the futures are at a premium to the spot due to policy expectations, and the market may fluctuate widely in the short - term, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [1][2][8] Group 3: Industry Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-1.26%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 286,605 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on August 18 was 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with some individual silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and Shanghai areas decreasing, while those in the northwest, Xinjiang, and Sichuan regions remained unchanged [1] - **Supply Side**: According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Constrained by weak terminal demand, market transactions were still below expectations, and monomer factories offered discounts to reduce inventory, expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term [1] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 52,275 yuan/ton and closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 137,977 lots (135,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 580,607 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 24.20 (a month - on - month increase of 3.86%), silicon wafer inventory at 19.80GW (a month - on - month increase of 3.60%), weekly polysilicon output at 29,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%), and silicon wafer output at 12.10GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.67%) [4] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Chip**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery chips was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery chips was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W. On August 18, the bidding for the second batch of photovoltaic component procurement for China Resources Power's 2025 photovoltaic projects opened, with a total procurement capacity of 3GW in three bid sections [6] Group 4: Policy Information - On August 19, multiple departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, requiring the photovoltaic industry to strengthen industrial regulation, curb low - price disorderly competition, standardize product quality, and support industry self - regulation to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [2] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [8]

Research View - On August 19th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.26%, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,615 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose back to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 340 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the position increased by 2,459 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,670 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The growth of polysilicon output was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between quantity and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration was difficult to relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. Market news about price adjustments and production cuts was complex with many differences, and the positive feedback from downstream was limited. It was difficult to continue to rise sharply, and short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and whether the inventory pressure could be reduced [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,735 yuan/ton on August 18th to 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: Most of the prices of different grades and regions remained stable, with only a few varieties showing price changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, East China) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, Kunming) also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 230 yuan/ton to 340 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt remained at 50,710 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased from 267,300 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The total social inventory increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton on August 18th to 52,260 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton to 52,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 7,780 yuan/ton to 7,670 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt remained at 5,820 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory decreased from 273,400 tons to 267,900 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC East China market price decreased from 11,500 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of raw rubber decreased from 12,500 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 107 glue decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost levels, average profit levels, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing, consumption is stable, inventory is high, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating. Policy influence needs attention [1][2][3][6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On August 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8805 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 297,619 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,710, a change of 111 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable, with only individual silicon prices in Tianjin rising [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton (-400 yuan/ton). The price decline was due to the approaching end of previously undelivered orders and poor new order reception, prompting monomer plants to cut prices to stimulate downstream enterprises to stock up. Downstream customers made purchases according to production needs [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - With supply growing, consumption stable, high total inventory, and slight fluctuations in spot prices, short - term range trading is recommended. If the market drops significantly, medium - to - long - term hedging by buying at low prices can be considered. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On August 18, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 52,810 yuan/ton and closing at 52,280 yuan/ton, a 1.71% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The main contract's position was 135,517 lots (138,723 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 425,548 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a 3.86% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a 3.60% change), polysilicon weekly output was 29,300.00 tons (-0.30% change), and silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a 0.67% change) [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.34 yuan/piece [3] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. Short - term range trading is recommended, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Group 7: Market Analysis of Battery Cells and Components - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 8: Factors to Monitor - Factors to monitor include the resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in polysilicon enterprise operations, policy disturbances, macro and capital sentiment, and the operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [4]

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月19日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 7万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 57% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 ， | | 环比增长2 | 56% . . | 需求有所抬升 | . | 多晶硅库存 | | | | | | | | 为24 2万吨 . ， | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

一、国家"反内卷"相关政策梳理 自2025年6月下旬以来，在中央治理低价无序竞争、反内卷的政策导向下，各部委、协会有力 开展"反内卷"工作部署，积极开展产业调研和座谈，为出台措施做好研究论证。 6月27日《反不正当竞争法》修订明确禁止低价倾销；6月29日《人民日报》点名光伏行业"内 卷式"竞争；7月1日中央财经委会议要求治理低价无序竞争；7月3日工信部召开光伏企业座谈会； 7月18日工信部表示将出台十大重点行业稳增长方案；7月24日国资委强调抵制"内卷式"竞争，发 改委就《价格法》修订征求意见；7月30日中央政治局会议指出"推动市场竞争秩序持续优化，依法 依规治理企业无序竞争"；8月1日工信部印发《2025年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通 知》，要求对41家多晶硅企业的节能情况进行监察。 二、近期硅产业价格波动情况及原因 2025年以来，硅产业市场期现价格呈现先跌后涨的态势。其中多晶硅现货价格从年初的4.06万 元/吨跌至6月底的3.44万元/吨，跌幅15.3%；工业硅综合现货价格从年初的11697元/吨跌至6月 底的8743元/吨，跌幅25.3%；7月份之后，在国家"反内卷"政策的引导下，期货市场价格 ...

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Increasing Disturbances in News" and was released on August 15, 2025 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions relevant macro and industry news [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon futures Si2511, the closing price is 8,675 yuan/ton, with a change of 75 yuan compared to T - 1, 20 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 110 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 512,076 lots, and the open interest is 279,035 lots. For polysilicon futures PS2511, the closing price is 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 860 yuan compared to T - 1 and 320 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 415,544 lots, and the open interest is 127,757 lots [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for industrial silicon is - 40 yuan/ton, and the buy - near - month and sell - continuous - first inter - period cost is 51.6 yuan/ton. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread for polysilicon is - 740 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 765 yuan/ton [2] - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton. The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2626 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 3364 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 71.6 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 925 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On the morning of August 11, a joint observation group composed of various bureaus and their functional departments in Wuhai City inspected the 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa undertaken by the Fourth Branch of China National Chemical Engineering No.16 Construction Company. The advanced management experience and clean construction environment were highly recognized [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]