Domestic Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on July 16 to discuss strengthening the domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for optimized policy design and collaboration among departments to promote economic stability and growth [9][10][11] - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference convened a meeting on July 18 to analyze the macroeconomic situation for the first half of 2025, highlighting the importance of maintaining employment, enterprises, and market stability amid a complex international environment [11][12] Overseas Policy News - On July 17, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," establishing a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins, marking a significant legislative reform in cryptocurrency regulation [2][14] - Data from the U.S. Treasury revealed that in May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings for the third consecutive month [16][20] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a slight increase in mid-July, driven by better-than-expected economic growth in the first half and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [22][23] - The MSCI China A-share index rose by 1.2% in the third week of July, while the Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of nearly 20 billion yuan [22][23] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net injection of 9.749 billion yuan into the market through open market operations [3][21] - The central bank's policies have shown a positive impact on supporting the real economy, with a notable increase in the effectiveness of monetary policy [3][21] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight rebound, while crude oil prices experienced a minor decline [3][21] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the implementation of a work plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [3][21] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index strengthened slightly, closing at 98.46 on July 18, while the renminbi faced depreciation pressure, trading at 7.18 [4][20] - A joint announcement from seven departments encouraged foreign investment in domestic reinvestment, aiming to enhance the investment environment [4][20] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing in the second half of the year, with a focus on structural adjustments to address uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [4][20]

Group 1 - Canada announced a 25% tariff on steel and related products from China to protect its domestic industry from an influx of foreign steel following U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The Canadian government is responding to U.S. trade policies, particularly those imposed by the Trump administration, which have included tariffs ranging from 35% to 50% on various Canadian products [3][5] - The decision to target China is seen as a strategic move to demonstrate a tough stance externally while attempting to appease domestic dissatisfaction and signal cooperation to the U.S. [5][7] Group 2 - China is the largest steel producer globally and a significant source of steel imports for Canada, accounting for over 10% of Canada's steel imports last year, which could lead to increased costs for Canadian industries [5][7] - China's potential retaliatory measures include imposing punitive tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, which could severely impact Canada's agricultural sector that relies heavily on the Chinese market [7][9] - The evolving trade dynamics indicate a broader trend of countries aligning against China, with Canada’s actions reflecting this shift in international trade relations [7][9]

Group 1 - Canada imposes a 25% tariff on all steel products containing "Chinese smelting and casting," while exempting U.S. steel imports, claiming to protect domestic steel manufacturers [1][3] - The Canadian government faces backlash from farmers as China retaliates by canceling a CAD 4.9 billion (approximately RMB 26 billion) canola order, leading to a significant drop in canola futures prices [1][5] - Canadian steel imports are projected to be CAD 16 billion in 2024, with only 10% coming from China, contradicting claims of "Chinese dumping" [3][5] Group 2 - The new regulations are perceived as a "protection fee" to the U.S., as Canada responds to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum by targeting China [5][9] - Canadian farmers are struggling with unsold canola, with reports of warehouses overflowing and significant financial losses due to the sudden policy shift [7][12] - Australia quickly capitalizes on the situation by signing agreements to supply canola to China, benefiting from the void left by Canada [7][12] Group 3 - Canadian provincial leaders and farmers express frustration over the government's handling of trade relations, with calls for action to support the agricultural sector [9][11] - The Canadian government faces criticism for prioritizing political relations with the U.S. over the economic well-being of its farmers [9][12] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the trade tensions could lead to a 0.8% contraction in Canada's GDP [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to increase import tariffs on August 1, with specific rates of 25% on Japan and 50% on Brazil, reflecting President Trump's dissatisfaction with Brazil's trade practices [1][2] - Since April 9, most U.S. trading partners have faced a 10% tariff, while Canada and Mexico have been subjected to a 25% tariff, although certain goods under the USMCA are exempt [2] - The Trump administration has implemented sector-specific tariffs, including a 50% import tax on steel and aluminum, and a 25% tariff on automobiles and most auto parts, with plans to extend tariffs to other industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the importance of achieving a high-quality trade agreement over adhering to the August 1 deadline, suggesting that negotiations could continue post-deadline [1] - Commerce Secretary Lutnick described August 1 as a hard deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, indicating that negotiations could still occur after this date [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching new historical highs [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian government's recent decision to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese steel products in response to U.S. tariffs has led to significant repercussions for Canadian farmers, particularly in the canola sector [1][5] - Canada’s tariff policy is seen as inconsistent, with different standards applied based on trade agreements, effectively exempting the U.S. while targeting countries like China [3][8] - The immediate impact of the tariff has resulted in China redirecting a 150,000-ton canola order to Australia, which poses a severe threat to Canadian canola farmers who heavily rely on the Chinese market [5][7] Group 2 - The canola trade between Canada and China has been fraught with issues, including a previous anti-dumping investigation by China that led to a 100% tariff on Canadian canola earlier this year [7][11] - The recent actions by the Canadian government have drawn criticism domestically, with political leaders highlighting the detrimental effects on farmers and questioning the government's diplomatic strategy [8][14] - Analysts predict that if Canada loses the Chinese market, the canola industry could face annual losses of up to 3.8 billion Canadian dollars, threatening the viability of many farms [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses Canada's strategic missteps in international trade, particularly its decision to impose tariffs on Chinese steel in an attempt to appease the United States, which ultimately backfired [1][9][51] - Canada's steel industry has been severely impacted by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S., leading to significant job losses and pressure on the government to respond [5][7][51] - The Canadian government's decision to target Chinese steel with a 25% tariff and strict quotas was intended to demonstrate alignment with U.S. trade policies, but it has raised questions about the protection of domestic industries [9][12][14] Group 2 - China's response to Canada's tariffs was swift, launching an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola and planning to resume imports of Australian canola, which Canada has historically dominated [20][24][29] - The timing of China's countermeasures was strategic, indicating that it had anticipated Canada's actions and was prepared to respond effectively [22][24] - The shift in canola imports from Canada to Australia represents a significant loss for Canada, which relies heavily on China for its canola exports, with 64% of its canola exports going to China [24][51][56] Group 3 - Australia's successful re-entry into the Chinese market for canola is attributed to its pragmatic approach and efforts to meet Chinese import standards, contrasting sharply with Canada's political maneuvering [36][41][46] - The article emphasizes that Australia's shift from a confrontational stance to one of cooperation has allowed it to regain market access, while Canada faces the risk of losing its market position permanently [41][58] - The overall narrative suggests that middle powers like Canada must adopt independent and pragmatic foreign policies rather than relying on opportunistic strategies to navigate the complexities of international relations [65][67]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price is in a volatile state, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. The stock market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's positioning of the domestic economy and forward - looking policies. The CBOT soybeans rose due to private sales and the Indonesia - US agreement, and the market is concerned about US tariff policies. Various commodities have different price trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices oscillating weakly, coal prices remaining seasonally strong, and copper prices potentially under short - term pressure [11][15][18][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Gold fluctuated sharply due to the news of Trump potentially firing Powell. The fundamentals lack positive factors for gold, and the short - term gold price is in a volatile range. Investment advice is that the short - term gold price will oscillate with increased volatility [10][11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Fed officials believe the current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate. The Fed's Beige Book shows a slight economic uptick with high uncertainty. Trump denied firing Powell, but the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [13][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to strengthen the domestic cycle. On July 17, the stock market was flat at a high level with low trading volume. The market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's stance. Investment advice is to allocate stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US banks' performance grew steadily, but the investment banking business was under short - term pressure. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight economic increase. The market's risk appetite is supported, but risks from Trump's policies exist. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and investors should control their positions carefully [20][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 120,000 tons of soybeans, and Indonesia will buy $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The domestic and foreign futures prices are oscillating, and the market should monitor US soybean production area weather and tariff policies [24][25][26]. 2.2 Ferrous Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating weakly. The probability of over - expected policy stimulus is low. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investment advice is to use a rebound hedging strategy for the spot market [27][28][29]. 2.3 Ferrous Metals (Steam Coal) - High - temperature weather supports coal consumption, and the coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [30]. 2.4 Ferrous Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price is oscillating at a high level. The supply is not expected to increase significantly this year, and the demand is under pressure. The price is difficult to break through the $100 resistance level [31][32]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East will impose tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises. The lead price is falling, but the price center of Shanghai lead is expected to rise. Investment advice includes looking for short - term buying opportunities and considering internal - external inverse arbitrage [33][34][35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in Q2 2025. The zinc price oscillated widely. The zinc market is under pressure, and investment advice includes short - term short - selling, positive arbitrage in the long - term month spread, and internal - external positive arbitrage [36][38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe plans to build a lithium ore processing plant. The supply side of lithium carbonate has uncertainties. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Investment advice is to look for short - term long - buying and positive arbitrage opportunities [39][40]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Kazakhstan will restrict non - ferrous metal exports and resume gallium production. The copper price may be under short - term pressure. Investment advice is to take a bearish approach for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [41][45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will shorten the mining quota period from 2026. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and decline in the medium term. Investment advice is to look for short - selling opportunities [46][47]. 2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The PDH unit of Guoheng stopped due to a malfunction. US C3 inventory increased, and the domestic market is weakly oscillating with insufficient upward momentum [48][49][50]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fell slightly. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate [51][52][53]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply increased, and the demand was good. It is difficult for the price to continue rising [54][55]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is weakening. The upward space of the pulp price is limited [56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC market followed the rebound but has limited upward potential due to inventory changes [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The supply pressure will be relieved, and investors can look for opportunities to expand processing fees [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is average. Investment advice is to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass decreased slightly. The glass market is weak, and investment advice includes considering cross - variety arbitrage [62][63]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Port of Long Beach will expand. The freight rate of the European line's 10 - contract retreated after rising. The 08 - contract's oscillation range moved up, but there are potential negative factors [64][65].

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiation between new and old economic drivers in the context of China's economic performance, with a GDP of 66.05 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 11.2% [1] - Industrial added value for June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1] Stock Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices experienced a general decline, with the communication sector leading gains and the coal sector facing losses, while market turnover reached 1.64 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 9.738 billion yuan to 1.872324 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investments in the capital market [2] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from supportive policies [2] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on the 10-year government bond fell to 1.6575%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [3] - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation and trade tensions, which affected U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which may provide some support for bond prices amid increasing global economic uncertainties [3] Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, with upstream production cuts potentially affecting future output expectations [4] - Demand for lithium materials is projected to grow, with phosphate iron lithium production expected to increase by 3% in July [4] - Market sentiment is improving, but there are pressures from hedging activities and no signs of upstream production cuts, suggesting a volatile market environment [4] Consumer Goods and Retail - In June, retail sales of consumer goods reached 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales also increasing by 4.8% [8] - For the first half of the year, total retail sales amounted to 245.458 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [8]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant frustration among EU member states [1][2] - The EU initially attempted to negotiate a balanced tariff of 10% but ended up facing a unilateral 30% tariff, indicating a failure in their negotiation strategy [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's decision to delay countermeasures against the U.S. has been criticized as a missed opportunity for a strong response [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is focused on implementing new customs tariffs rather than considering the impact on consumer prices, showcasing a hardline stance [2] - The EU's response has been perceived as weak, with the Commission acting as a spokesperson for U.S. policies rather than defending EU interests [2] - The situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU in the face of U.S. trade policies, suggesting that the EU may be seen as a tool for U.S. interests rather than a unified entity [2]

Core Point - Canada has delayed its plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. aluminum and steel, according to two senior officials cited by Politico [1] Group 1 - The decision to postpone the tariffs indicates a potential shift in trade relations between Canada and the U.S. [1] - This delay may reflect ongoing negotiations or discussions aimed at resolving trade tensions [1] - The move could have implications for the aluminum and steel industries in both countries, affecting pricing and supply chains [1]