Market Overview - The report highlights a positive trend in the agricultural sector, particularly in the aquaculture, other agricultural product processing, pig farming, food and feed additives, and seed industries, with the agricultural sector index rising by 2.55% during the week of June 30 to July 6, 2025 [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,497.48, reflecting a 0.70% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 [2] Key Investment Insights - The report identifies Haida Group as a promising investment opportunity due to the expected recovery in the feed industry, driven by declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed a week-on-week increase, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan rising by 6.83%, 10.04%, and 1.68% respectively, indicating a positive trend in pig prices [3] - The report suggests that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of pig production capacity recovery on profitability, while also overlooking the potential positive effects of declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [3] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, emphasizing that the current recovery phase may last longer than market expectations due to the industry's financial constraints and the need for debt reduction rather than rapid capacity expansion [3] - It is noted that the chicken industry may see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with companies like Shengnong Development positioned at the bottom of their performance and valuation cycles, presenting good investment opportunities [3] Recommendations - The report recommends several pig farming stocks, including Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope, based on the anticipated recovery in profitability [3] - For the pet food sector, the report highlights the importance of brand profitability and suggests focusing on leading domestic brands like Guibao Pet Food, which maintain strong sales performance [3][4]

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The recent tariff increase by the US affects 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations, with a significant adjustment in tariffs on Vietnam to 20% and 40% on transshipment trade [2] - The overall US tariff level is expected to remain between 15-20%, while tariffs on China are likely to stay between 30-40%, with a stronger focus on specific categories [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The market is currently in a volatile phase, with structural highlights present but facing resistance; trading funds remain active, while foreign passive allocation shows significant inflows [3] - The net outflow of broad-based ETFs reached a new high since March, indicating potential market instability [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Asset Correlation - Changes in global order have altered asset pricing logic, leading to a unique positive correlation between US stocks, the dollar, and bonds, resulting in increased volatility [4] - The domestic stock-bond negative correlation provides a favorable environment for diversified asset allocation [4] Group 4: Machinery Industry - Excavator sales in June reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with exports growing by 19% [5] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [5] Group 5: Agriculture Sector - The "anti-involution" policy in the pig farming industry is expected to release inventory and positively impact pig prices in the autumn and winter seasons [7] - Major pig farming companies are adjusting their production strategies, which may enhance overall profitability in the long term [7] Group 6: Chemical and Oil Industry - The capital expenditure growth rate in the chemical and oil sector is declining, indicating a potential turning point in industry prosperity [9] - The demand recovery in downstream chemical products is anticipated alongside a reduction in capital expenditure, which may lead to a recovery in the second half of 2025 [9] Group 7: Telecommunications Industry - The global telecommunications industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by demand in emerging markets and increasing ARPU in North America [10] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to bring transformative opportunities to the telecommunications sector [10] Group 8: Electric Power and New Energy - The recent policy from the National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote the construction of high-power charging facilities, which is expected to enhance the profitability of equipment manufacturers [11] - The goal is to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, indicating strong policy support for the sector [11] Group 9: Company Performance - Shengquan Group expects a net profit of 491-513 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [12] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 11.958-12.158 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a growth of 36.84%-39.12% [14]

Group 1 - The company reported a pig sales volume of 413,200 heads in June 2025, which includes 401,600 heads of commercial pigs and 11,600 heads of piglets, showing an increase from 293,500 heads in June 2024, where commercial pig sales rose by 37.75% [1] - The sales revenue for June 2025 reached 4,484.02 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.99% [1] - The disclosed data is preliminary and may differ from the figures in regular reports, serving only as a reference for investors [1] Group 2 - The increase in sales volume is attributed to a rise in production capacity [1] - The announcement emphasizes that the disclosed information pertains solely to the company's pig farming business, excluding feed and meat product sales [1] - The company acknowledges the inherent risks associated with market price fluctuations in the pig industry, which can significantly impact operational performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sales data for June from leading pig farming companies indicates that while the average sales price has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, profits have increased due to a significant reduction in costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Pricing - In the first half of the year, the average sales price for pigs from Muyuan Foods was 14.46 yuan/kg, down 0.76 yuan/kg from the previous year, with a price range of 14.08 to 14.76 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The sales price decline of approximately 5% contrasts with a notable decrease in costs, which fell from over 14 yuan/kg to 12.2 yuan/kg by May [1][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure varies significantly among pig farming companies, with some, like Huazhong Foods, reporting costs as high as 13.7 yuan/kg, which is 1.6 yuan/kg higher than Muyuan Foods [1][6]. - Muyuan Foods' profitability has improved, with a unit profit of approximately 2.3 yuan/kg and a gross margin of around 15.8%, compared to Huazhong Foods' 0.8 yuan/kg profit and 5.5% margin [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a narrowing fluctuation in pig prices, with expectations of marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year due to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory [8][10]. - There are differing opinions on the future price trajectory, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, while others foresee continued supply growth keeping prices stable [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" for the agricultural sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.01 percentage points during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with a weekly increase of 2.55% [15][17] - The pig farming sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to the recovery of breeding profits and the ongoing rise in pig prices [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index closed at 2,729.26, ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries in terms of weekly performance [15][17] - The fishery sector showed the best performance with a 5.13% increase, followed by breeding, agricultural product processing, feed, and planting sectors with respective increases of 3.12%, 2.96%, 2.30%, and 1.63% [17][19] Industry Dynamics - Pig prices continued to rise, with the national average price reaching 15.35 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 4.28% [2] - Self-breeding profits increased to 119.72 yuan/head, while external piglet breeding profits improved to -26.26 yuan/head [2] - In the poultry sector, chicken prices remained under pressure due to high inventory levels, with broiler chick prices dropping to 1.36 yuan/chick, a 20% decrease week-on-week [2] Agricultural Products - Prices for wheat, corn, and soybean meal showed a week-on-week increase, with wheat averaging 2,451.06 yuan/ton (up 0.19%), corn at 2,367.14 yuan/ton (up 0.61%), and soybean meal at 2,928.00 yuan/ton (up 0.76%) [3][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - In the poultry sector, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock for yellow feathered chickens [4] - For feed, it highlights industry leaders like Haida Group and regional leaders like Hefeng Stock as beneficiaries of the recovery in livestock demand [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of food security, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Group 1 - New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in pig sales in June 2025, with sales of 1.33 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% and a year-on-year increase of 3.38% [1] - The sales revenue for June was 1.871 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.14% [1] - The average selling price of pigs in June dropped to 14.18 yuan/kg, down 2.81% month-on-month and 21.53% year-on-year, marking a new low for the past year [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, New Hope achieved operating revenue of 24.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, and a net profit of 445 million yuan, indicating a significant turnaround [2] - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs by 1.8 yuan/kg compared to the same period last year, contributing to improved profitability [2] - Future trends suggest that pig prices may exhibit volatility, with expectations of average monthly prices between 13.76 yuan/kg and 15.07 yuan/kg from July to December 2025 [2] Group 3 - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased concentration due to the expansion of leading enterprises and technological advancements, while weaker companies face significant challenges amid low prices and rising costs [3] - The overall profit margins in the industry are being compressed, with many companies selling pigs at prices below 15 yuan/kg, leading to a low-profit operating phase [3] - New Hope's recent operational costs for fattened pigs are approximately 13 yuan/kg, and the company is focusing on four key tasks to reduce costs: epidemic prevention, genetic improvement, flexible management, and enhancing profitability in the fresh food segment [3]

Group 1 - Sannuo Group expects a net loss of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 7.4 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company anticipates a net loss of 77 million to 95 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [1] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.2148 to 0.2578 yuan per share [1] Group 2 - Landai Technology is planning to transfer 18% of its shares, which may lead to a change in control [2] - The stock of Landai Technology has been suspended from trading since July 8, 2025, with an expected suspension period of no more than two trading days [2] Group 3 - Xinxin Co. announced that a senior executive plans to reduce their holdings by up to 750,000 shares, representing no more than 0.2971% of the total share capital [3] - The reason for the reduction is personal financial needs [3] Group 4 - Biyimi plans to reduce its shares by a total of up to 3% by two shareholders, with one shareholder planning to reduce up to 139.68 million shares (2.00%) and the other up to 69.84 million shares (1.00%) [4] - The reason for the reduction is also personal financial needs [4] Group 5 - Changxin Bochuang announced that shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.95%, totaling 8.6 million shares [6] - The reason for the reduction is personal financial needs [6] Group 6 - Tianci Materials plans to publicly issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [9] Group 7 - Sanxiang Impression announced the termination of a previous equity transfer agreement, following a request from its controlling shareholder [10] Group 8 - Zhongke Technology has decided to terminate its plan to issue shares for asset acquisition and related fundraising due to changes in market conditions [12] Group 9 - Hangcha Group's subsidiary plans to acquire 99.23% of Guozu Robot's shares through capital increase [14] Group 10 - Xishan Technology plans to increase its holdings in the company by no less than 5 million and no more than 10 million yuan [19] Group 11 - New Hope reported sales of 1.33 million pigs in June, a year-on-year increase of 3.38% [21] - The sales revenue was 1.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.14% [21] Group 12 - Auhua Endoscope announced that two shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.92% [18] Group 13 - Star Source Material has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing [18] Group 14 - Yilian Technology plans to invest 20 million yuan to establish a partnership with professional institutions [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing odor and waste management in pig farming within county areas, highlighting the implementation of new technologies and training programs to enhance the quality of the industry [1][11][32]. Group 1: Industry Development - The initiative focuses on the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" to strengthen the responsibilities of rural science and technology personnel in promoting pig farming in county areas [2][5]. - Jiexi County is recognized for its significant pig farming scale, being a pilot for the city's agricultural industry chain, with over 120 large-scale farms and more than 1,500 specialized farming households, generating a total output value exceeding 1 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Training and Technology - A specialized training session on odor and waste management technologies in pig farms was organized by the local government in collaboration with the Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences [4][19]. - The training included two main topics: innovative multi-faceted treatment technologies for odor and waste, and cost-effective odor control techniques for small to medium-sized farms, which were well-received by the participants [20][23]. Group 3: Practical Applications - The proposed solutions involve a comprehensive approach to odor management, including source reduction, process control, and end-point treatment to minimize odor emissions from pig farming [21][22]. - The training also provided practical guidance on using disinfectant and preventive materials, especially crucial during the summer when pig diseases are more prevalent [25][26]. Group 4: Goals and Impact - The overall aim of the training is to enhance the skills and knowledge of local farmers and enterprises, thereby injecting technological strength into the high-quality development of the pig farming industry in Jiexi County [31][33].

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...