期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 随着中美贸易政策博弈尘埃落定，市场逻辑已从前期的政策驱动逐步回归基本面主导。供应端来看，本年度巴西大豆丰产为我国提供 了充足的进口来源，国内油厂大豆及豆粕库存均攀升至历史高位，市场供应呈现宽松格局。尽管未来美国大豆进口预期有所改善，但 豆粕价格并未出现大幅回落，核心原因在于...... 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 饲料年报 2025-11-30 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0 ...

Group 1 - The announcement of China purchasing 87 million tons of soybeans signals a potential improvement in Sino-U.S. relations in the coming year [1][3] - The soybean deal represents a strategic maneuver in the ongoing trade, diplomatic, and geopolitical competition between the two nations [3][5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reassured farmers about the procurement plan, indicating a structured approach to future trade relations [5][6] Group 2 - The soybean transaction is not merely a market action but a strategic signal from China to support U.S. Midwest farmers, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [6][17] - The proactive communication from President Trump to China reflects a shift in negotiation dynamics, with the U.S. taking the initiative in trade discussions [10][12] - The upcoming visits by President Trump to China highlight a significant change in diplomatic engagement, suggesting a warming of relations despite underlying competitive rhetoric [14][20] Group 3 - The U.S. prioritizes agricultural exports to stabilize its domestic economy, making any regional tensions potentially disruptive to the soybean trade [17][19] - The geopolitical implications of the soybean deal diminish the significance of traditional alliances, as U.S. interests take precedence over those of allies like Japan [19][20] - The strategic use of soybean orders and export controls by China demonstrates a non-military approach to exerting influence over its competitors [20][21]

Core Insights - The 2025 Hubei Agricultural Expo opened on November 29 at the Wuhan International Expo Center, featuring nearly 2,000 enterprises and research institutions showcasing over 10,000 types of specialty agricultural products [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo is organized by the Hubei Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Hubei Provincial Rural Revitalization Bureau, themed "Building a New Era of Fish and Rice Country" to showcase Hubei's achievements in modern agriculture [2] - The event spans 60,000 square meters with 6 exhibition halls and 16 exhibition areas [2][7] - The expo will run until December 2, featuring over 20 activities including local theme days, brand promotions, and production-sales connections [6] Group 2: Economic Impact - A signing ceremony took place during the opening, with the Hubei Agricultural Exhibition Industry Alliance signing agreements with key enterprises in the national trade and circulation industry, totaling a signing amount of 24.469 billion yuan [2] - Ten investment attraction projects were also signed during the event [2] Group 3: Exhibits and Attractions - The core exhibition area highlights the achievements of Hubei's modern agriculture, showcasing key agricultural technologies and green development models through various interactive formats [4][5] - Notable regional public brands such as Poyang River crayfish, Xiantao eel, Jianghan rice, and others were prominently displayed, attracting significant public interest [4] - A food exhibition area featured 10 Chinese culinary masters presenting 24 dishes made from Jianghan rice, with free tasting sessions drawing large crowds [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Hubei Agricultural Expo opened on the 29th in Wuhan International Expo Center, showcasing nearly 2,000 enterprises and research institutions with over 10,000 varieties of specialty agricultural products [1] Group 1 - The opening ceremony featured a centralized signing event [1] - Hubei Agricultural Exhibition Industry Alliance signed agreements with key enterprises in the national commercial circulation industry [1] - A total of 10 investment attraction projects were signed, with a total signing amount of 24.469 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Honghe Yuqi Packaging Materials Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the packaging materials industry [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Yang Xianqin [1] - The company is involved in a wide range of activities including the sale of packaging materials and products, packaging services, and agricultural product logistics [1] Business Scope - The company’s business scope includes: - Sales of packaging materials and products - Agricultural product logistics equipment sales - Fresh fruit retail and cultivation - Various agricultural services including production, processing, and transportation [1] - Additional services offered include supply chain management, new membrane materials manufacturing, and various types of material sales such as thermal insulation and corrosion-resistant materials [1] - The company also engages in internet sales, personal internet live streaming services, and various logistics and warehousing services [1]

Core Points - The 18th round of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations between Vietnam and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) took place in Da Nang, Vietnam from November 25 to 28 [1] - The goal of both parties is to make every effort to complete consultations in this round and to adopt necessary flexible measures to ensure a balanced agreement beneficial to both sides [1] - The negotiations are progressing smoothly, with efforts to narrow remaining differences highlighted by the Vietnamese delegation [1] Trade Relations - As of the end of 2024, trade between Vietnam and EFTA is expected to exceed $3.5 billion, maintaining stable growth over the years [1] - Major exports from Vietnam to EFTA member countries include footwear, textiles and garments, machinery and equipment, mobile phones and components, as well as agricultural products like coffee and cashews [1] - In return, Vietnam primarily imports high-tech and high-value-added products from EFTA member countries, such as pharmaceuticals, precision machinery, medical devices, and chemical products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yinchuan City is launching a series of promotional activities from December 2025 to March 2026 to stimulate winter consumption across various sectors, including commerce, culture, tourism, agriculture, sports, and wine, under the brand "Beautiful Yinchuan" [1] Group 1: Promotional Activities - Yinchuan City has planned 113 promotional activities, utilizing a "government subsidies + enterprise discounts" model, with a total value of consumption vouchers reaching 1.9 billion yuan [3] - The city has partnered with pharmacies to issue 1 million yuan in health consumption vouchers as part of the "Happy Shopping Yinchuan" initiative [3] Group 2: Tourism Initiatives - The "Winter Tour Yinchuan" campaign features over 60 activities across eight sectors, including events like the New Year party at Yuehai Ski Resort and the Ice Peak Festival at Helan Mountain Rock Art Scenic Area [3] - During the Spring Festival, various events such as the "Mountain-Sea New Spring Lantern Festival" and the 11th Qin Opera Art Performance will be held to enhance the holiday experience for residents and tourists [3] - Yinchuan City has allocated over 5 million yuan for tourism subsidies, offering discounts on entrance fees and bundled tickets at attractions like Xixia Tomb [3] Group 3: Sports Events - The "Active Yinchuan" series includes 33 sports events, featuring professional ice and snow competitions as well as community-friendly activities like snow soccer and parent-child obstacle races [3] - Consumers can enjoy discounts on attraction tickets, accommodation, and dining by presenting event tickets during the promotional period [3] Group 4: Agricultural Promotion - The "Smart Selection Yinchuan" initiative aims to promote local agricultural products in various venues, including government offices and tourist attractions, and to showcase them in markets such as Beijing [4] - Key products include high-quality wine, goji berries, lamb, and cool-season vegetables, which are being marketed to reach a national audience [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics in the soybean market, highlighting the disparity in prices between U.S. and South American soybeans, and the implications of tariffs and trade negotiations on these prices [1][3][19]. Price Disparity - The current post-tax price of U.S. soybeans is approximately 4600 RMB per ton, while South American soybeans are priced at 4000 RMB per ton, resulting in a price difference of 600 RMB per ton [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean price is further impacted by a 13% import tariff compared to a 3% tariff on South American soybeans, creating a significant cost disadvantage for U.S. products [5][7]. Import Volume and Market Impact - Recently, China purchased 160,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, which is a small fraction (less than 1.5%) of its annual import requirement of 110 million tons [7][12]. - The purchase was made by COFCO Group, and despite the small volume, it reflects China's strategic approach to trade negotiations with the U.S. [7][9]. Trade Negotiations and Market Reactions - The soybean purchase is seen as a response to U.S.-China trade talks, indicating a willingness to engage while maintaining control over the volume and timing of purchases [9][10]. - Following the announcement of the purchase, U.S. soybean futures prices fluctuated, demonstrating the sensitivity of the market to Chinese buying activity [10][12]. Future Price Trends - The article suggests that U.S. soybean production may decline due to uncertainty among farmers, while Brazil is expected to increase production, potentially stabilizing overall soybean prices [16][17]. - China's ability to source soybeans from both the U.S. and Brazil allows it to leverage pricing and maintain supply chain security [19][21]. Strategic Implications - The purchase of U.S. soybeans is framed not just as a commodity transaction but as a strategic move to enhance China's bargaining power in trade negotiations [19][21]. - The article emphasizes the importance of mutual benefits in trade, suggesting that further cooperation will depend on the U.S. addressing tariffs and technology restrictions [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The research aim of commodity meso - rotation is to combine the "subjective + quantitative" concept and put it into practice, reducing the specificity of factors, parameters, and models in the strategy, and focusing on interpretability and attributability [3][81] - The report constructs a monthly - frequency variety cluster meso - rotation model. The in - sample average annualized return rate is 17.79%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.44, the drawdown is - 5.70%, and the monthly win - rate is 68.98%. From January to November 2025, the out - of - sample total return is 15.43%, the drawdown is 1.09%, the monthly win - rate is 70%, and only three months record negative returns [3][4][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Rotation Mechanism and Variety Cluster Division - In the previous report, it was proposed that during the upward phase of the inventory cycle, the real - side is dominant, manifested as fundamental valuation; during the downward phase, the expected - side is dominant, manifested as macro - valuation. A research framework for the rotation of fundamental and macro - valuation under the cycle phase was put forward, and the meso - targets were implemented at the variety cluster level [6] - 16 variety clusters were selected, including 3 in the black sector, 3 in the non - ferrous sector, 5 in the energy and chemical sector, 3 in the agricultural products sector, and 2 in the precious metals sector, starting from January 1, 2019 [7] 3.2 Bottom - up - Fundamental Perspective 3.2.1 Fundamental Valuation Index Construction - The construction of fundamental valuation indexes in meso - rotation is similar to but different from traditional fundamental quantitative analysis. Due to differences in data among varieties, a special method is needed. First, pre - process the original data of inventory, profit, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, including pre - screening, filling missing values, 3σ standardization, and seasonal adjustment. Then, construct the variety cluster diffusion index. Finally, use the inventory diffusion index as the base diffusion index and design "logic gate" adjustment rules [10][13][14] 3.2.2 Back - testing Results - The strategy is rebalanced monthly. By adjusting the number of long and short variety clusters, it is found that the overall return is strongly correlated with the number of variety clusters. The average annualized return rate of the full - parameter group is 9.88%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.52, the drawdown is - 10.58%, and the monthly win - rate is 57.96%. The ls_4_4 group is selected as the strategy benchmark [22] 3.3 Top - down - Macro Perspective 3.3.1 Variety Clusters Expressing Macro Views - Through principal component analysis of Wind's five major sector indexes, three principal components are obtained. PC1 is the combined effect of growth and interest rate factors, with precious metals having a significant negative exposure and the other four sectors having significant positive exposures; PC2 is the combined effect of inflation structure and monetary policy expectations, with energy and chemical and agricultural products having positive exposures and the other three sectors having negative exposures; PC3 is the influence of RMB exchange - rate depreciation, with black and energy - chemical sectors having negative exposures and precious metals, non - ferrous, and agricultural products having positive exposures [28][29][31] 3.3.2 Macro - valuation Index Construction - Select growth, inflation, interest rate, and exchange - rate as macro indicators and construct monthly - frequency indicators. For growth and inflation factors, select proxy indicators, pre - process, seasonally adjust, filter, and synthesize them; for interest rate and exchange - rate factors, calculate them from high - frequency asset data and then reduce the frequency. The macro - valuation intensity index is constructed by multiplying the factor exposure after rolling regression by the factor momentum, summing them up, and then multiplying by the confidence indicator [40][41][49] 3.3.3 Back - testing Results - The strategy is rebalanced monthly. By adjusting the number of long and short variety clusters, it is found that the overall return decreases as the number of variety clusters increases, and the drawdown and volatility ease. The average annualized return rate of the full - parameter group is 10.13%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.91, the drawdown is - 11.17%, and the monthly win - rate is 66.94%. The ls_4_4 group is selected as the reference group [59] 3.4 Cycle Timing 3.4.1 Inventory Cycle Index Construction - Construct an inventory cycle index based on enterprise accounts receivable and inventory, which is the ratio of the increment of enterprise finished - product inventory to the increment of enterprise revenue. After data selection, cleaning, and calculation, the inventory cycle index is standardized to the [0,1] interval and lagged by one month [62] 3.4.2 Inventory Cycle Inflection Point Identification - First, determine the dynamic threshold; then, identify the initial inflection points; finally, filter the inflection points for the second time. After the second filtering, 5 adjacent inflection points are removed. From March 2012 to the end of 2024, there are 11 effective inflection points, and the average inventory cycle running time is 2 years and 1 month. After subjective adjustment, the average running time is 41 months [65][66][70] 3.5 Variety Cluster Meso - rotation Model - Based on the inventory cycle's up - and - down phases, conduct a binary rotation of the valuation model. In the inventory up - phase, the weight of fundamental valuation is 100%; in the down - phase, the weight of macro - valuation is 100%. The average annualized return rate of the in - sample full - parameter group is 17.79%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.44, the drawdown is - 5.70%, and the monthly win - rate is 68.98%. The out - of - sample total return from January to November 2025 is 15.43%, the drawdown is 1.09%, the monthly win - rate is 70%, and only three months record negative returns [74][83] 3.6 Summary and Outlook 3.6.1 Summary - The report builds a variety cluster fundamental valuation rotation model from a bottom - up perspective and a variety cluster macro - valuation rotation model from a top - down perspective. It also constructs an inventory cycle index and conducts a binary rotation of the valuation model based on the inventory cycle [81][82][83] 3.6.2 Outlook - Adjust the variety cluster division method and include active varieties such as new - energy silicon and lithium - Consider factors such as the currency and hedging attributes of precious metals and the geopolitical attributes of oil products - Construct a variety cluster trend state identification model based on volume - price characteristics and evaluate the trend confidence with valuation levels - Deploy a monitoring system from sentiment analysis and news for mid - cycle strategies to avoid risks [84]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.33%. In the short term, the futures price may remain weak [9][13]. - The acquisition of new - season jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is in progress. The prices in the producing areas are trending weakly, and the inventory of 36 sample points has increased [9][42]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in output, and the jujube export volume in October 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [46][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side [9]. - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.33% [9][13]. - In Xinjiang's main producing areas, the acquisition in some areas has ended, while in others, it is in progress. The prices in the producing areas are trending weakly. The inventory of 36 sample points as of November 28, 2025, was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 5.01% and a year - on - year increase of 90.32% [9][42]. - Enterprises and small and medium - sized merchants are the main purchasing entities, with Cangzhou merchants being the main purchasing force in the current market [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract rose first and then fell this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.33% [13]. - **Futures positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 16,457 lots [16]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 0 [20]. - **Futures spreads**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's jujube futures 2601 contract and the 2605 contract was - 150 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 805 yuan/ton [26]. - **Spot prices**: As of November 28, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.05 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.5 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.6 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin; the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, was 9.83 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [29][33][38]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - As of November 28, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 5.01% and a year - on - year increase of 90.32% [42]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in output [46]. - **Demand side**: - In October 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with an export value of 35,238,139 yuan and an export average price of 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 25,753,622 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.18% [50]. - This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had only a small amount of orders and transactions [55]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: The report only mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week, but no specific data is provided [56]. - **Stock market**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Hao Xiang Ni, but no specific analysis is given [58][59].