Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]

Market Overview - On December 23, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.11%, with southbound trading totaling HKD 818.11 billion, comprising HKD 412.11 billion in buying and HKD 406.00 billion in selling, resulting in a net buying amount of HKD 6.11 billion [1] Southbound Trading Details - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total trading amount of HKD 304.64 billion, with HKD 158.29 billion in buying and HKD 146.35 billion in selling, leading to a net buying of HKD 11.93 billion [1] - Conversely, the Stock Connect (Shanghai) recorded a total trading amount of HKD 513.47 billion, with HKD 253.82 billion in buying and HKD 259.65 billion in selling, resulting in a net selling of HKD 5.82 billion [1] Active Stocks - Tencent Holdings had the highest trading amount among southbound stocks, totaling HKD 55.48 billion, followed by Alibaba-W at HKD 51.90 billion and SMIC at HKD 35.62 billion [1] - In terms of net buying, Alibaba-W led with a net buying amount of HKD 13.60 billion, closing up by 0.55%. Meituan-W and Zijin Mining also saw net buying of HKD 2.23 billion and HKD 1.12 billion, respectively [1] - The stock with the highest net selling was China Mobile, with a net selling amount of HKD 19.75 billion, closing down by 1.02%. Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou-W experienced net selling of HKD 10.88 billion and HKD 1.74 billion, respectively [1] Continuous Net Buying - Among the stocks, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) was noted for having continuous net buying for more than three days, with a total net buying amount of HKD 4.82 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached a historic high of over $12,000 per ton due to supply disruptions and tariff threats, marking a 37% increase this year and potentially the largest annual gain since 2009 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The expectation of potential tariffs under the Trump administration has become a core factor driving copper prices higher, leading traders to rush shipments to the U.S. and significantly increasing U.S. imports [4][5]. - This "front-running" behavior has disrupted the market balance, forcing manufacturers outside the U.S. to engage in competitive bidding, which has further elevated global benchmark prices [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - The supply side is facing severe challenges, with major mining operations in the Americas, Africa, and Asia experiencing shutdowns, leading to a significant supply deficit [4][6]. - Deutsche Bank analysts predict a 3% decline in production from the world's largest mining companies this year, with further declines expected by 2026 due to operational disruptions [6]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Wall Street analysts have differing views on copper price forecasts; Goldman Sachs warns that the current price surge is driven by speculative bets rather than actual supply-demand conditions, yet still lists copper as a preferred industrial metal with a price target of $11,400 per ton for next year [8]. - In contrast, Citigroup offers a more aggressive outlook, suggesting that under bullish scenarios, copper prices could rise to $15,000 per ton due to a weaker dollar and increased investor interest [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luoyang Shenglong Mining Group Co., Ltd. has received approval from the listing committee for its IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - The approval marks a significant step for the company in its efforts to raise capital through public markets [1] - This IPO could enhance the company's visibility and credibility in the mining industry [1] - The move is expected to provide the necessary funds for the company's expansion and development projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinling Mining (000655) reported that as of December 19, 2025, the number of registered shareholders is 34,658, including credit accounts [1] Group 1 - The company provided an update on its shareholder count through an interactive platform [1] - The data was sourced from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net inflow of 611 million HKD from northbound trading on December 23, with significant buying in Alibaba, Meituan, and Zijin Mining, while China Mobile, Tencent, and SMIC saw the most selling [1][6]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of 611 million HKD, with Shanghai Stock Connect showing a net sell of 582 million HKD and Shenzhen Stock Connect showing a net buy of 1.193 billion HKD [1]. - The most bought stocks included Alibaba-W (09988), Meituan-W (03690), and Zijin Mining (02899) [1]. - The most sold stocks included China Mobile (00941), Tencent (00700), and SMIC (00981) [1]. Group 2: Stock-Specific Details - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net buy of 13.67 billion HKD, driven by the launch of the AI DingTalk operating system [2][6]. - Meituan-W (03690) received a net buy of 2.23 billion HKD [8]. - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a net buy of 1.11 billion HKD, with an upgraded production forecast for its copper project [6]. - China Mobile (00941) faced a net sell of 14.82 billion HKD [2]. - Tencent (00700) experienced a net sell of 7.78 billion HKD [2]. - SMIC (00981) had a net sell of 6.29 billion HKD, influenced by U.S. export regulations on AI chips [7].

Market Review - Iron ore futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 781.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.9% [1] Fundamental Summary - Satellite data indicates that from December 15 to December 21, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.247 million tons, an increase of 527,000 tons month-on-month, showing a slight recovery trend [2] - In the third week of December 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments totaled 24.725 million tons, down from 30.570 million tons in December of the previous year. The average daily shipment was 1.648 million tons, which is a 13.23% increase compared to 1.456 million tons per day in December of last year [2] - According to customs statistics, China's iron ore and its concentrate imports in November 2025 amounted to 110.54 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% but a year-on-year increase of 8.72% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that the emergency response to heavy pollution in North China has been lifted, which may lead to a rebound in iron demand, suggesting a strong price trend for iron ore. Although the supply-demand structure has weakened month-on-month, the decline in demand has shown some improvement, coupled with a rebound in finished product demand, indicating a strong price trend. However, the strength in finished products may not be sustainable, and a price correction is expected [3] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures stated that the current iron ore market supply has slightly decreased. Despite a continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills have low inventory levels and there is an expectation of a rebound in pig iron production in January, leading to a short-term oscillating price trend for iron ore [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cooperation between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and China is deepening and becoming more substantial, extending beyond economic collaboration to cultural exchanges, which enhances the stability of their relationship [3][4]. Economic Cooperation - Mining cooperation has been a significant part of DRC-China relations, but the collaboration is expanding into agriculture, where DRC has substantial potential due to its land area, climate diversity, water resources, and arable land conditions [3][4]. - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in DRC, which is promoting local manufacturing and industrial development, aiming to reduce reliance on raw material exports [4]. Infrastructure Development - The DRC-China cooperation is yielding tangible results in infrastructure, exemplified by the construction of the Kinshasa Ring Road project, which is expected to transform the urban structure and commuting patterns in Kinshasa [4]. Cultural Exchange - The historical presence of Chinese agricultural experts in DRC has left a lasting impact, showcasing the deep-rooted and grassroots nature of the cooperation between the two countries [4]. Future Outlook - The DRC-China cooperation is focused not only on current projects but also on long-term development goals, which will contribute to the economic transformation of DRC and provide ongoing momentum for regional stability and collective development [5].

Group 1 - The core achievement of Serbia-China economic cooperation is highlighted, with significant contributions from Chinese investments to Serbia's economic and social development, creating job opportunities [1] - From 2013 to 2024, Serbia's exports to China increased from $2.2 million to $1.9 billion, an approximately 85-fold growth, while Chinese direct investment in Serbia rose from €2.22 million to €1.4 billion [1] - China has become the largest source of foreign direct investment in Serbia, with investments spanning various sectors including steel, infrastructure, mining, and energy [1] Group 2 - Serbia's exports to China have maintained an annual growth rate exceeding 50%, with the upcoming Serbia-China Free Trade Agreement opening new avenues for Serbian goods in the Chinese market [2] - Serbian enterprises are encouraged to explore cooperation in tropical agriculture, high-end tourism, and healthcare, leveraging opportunities from the Hainan Free Trade Port [2] - The focus of Serbia-China cooperation is shifting towards higher technology and innovation, with ongoing projects in renewable energy, smart industry and agriculture, communication technology, and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3 - Under the strategic guidance of the leaders of both countries, practical cooperation between Serbia and China has flourished, with numerous infrastructure and investment projects contributing positively to Serbia's national development [3] - The Chinese government is promoting investment from capable Chinese enterprises in Serbia to support high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4,465 per ounce, with a significant increase of 2.4% in the previous trading day, marking the largest single-day gain in over a month [1] - The investment demand for gold is expected to drive future price movements, as the negative correlation with long-term U.S. Treasury yields is weakening, indicating a strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are experiencing a positive trend, with LME copper rising by 2.75% and LME aluminum by 2.80%, while Shanghai tin saw a weekly increase of 6.98% [2] - A supply-demand turning point for refined copper is anticipated around 2026, with optimistic economic growth forecasts for the U.S. and resilient copper demand expected from China [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index increasing by 86.57% year-to-date, and the mining ETF (159690) tracking a 96.13% gain [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [2][3] - The average return on equity (ROE) for the non-ferrous mining sector stands at 12.14%, while the Shenwan non-ferrous metals index has an ROE of 10.61% [3] Group 4: Market Movements - On December 23, both precious and industrial metals saw price increases, with Shandong Gold rising over 6%, and other companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten also experiencing gains [4] - The mining ETF (159690) rose by 1.71%, reaching a new high of 1.906 yuan since its listing [4] Group 5: ETF Composition - The mining ETF (159690) closely tracks the non-ferrous mining index, focusing on key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium [5] - The top ten holdings of the ETF include leading companies in the sector, such as Northern Rare Earth, Zijin Mining, and Tianqi Lithium [5]