Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is under pressure. The 2510 contract is currently pricing in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [10][13] - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main 2510 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1,203.8 points, down 5.28%, with an increase of 2,187 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1,609.1 points, down 4.07%, with an increase of 1,417 lots in positions [1][10] Freight Rates - The 38 - week freight rate center has further declined to around $1,650/FEU. Conservatively estimated, the cumulative decline in the 39th and 40th weeks is $100/FEU, and the center may fall to around $1,550/FEU. Different alliances have different pricing and adjustment situations [11] Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity has been slightly revised down from 276,000 TEU/week to 267,000 TEU/week. The year - on - year growth rate of capacity in October is 1.1%, a significant decline compared to July - September. The suspension of sailings by shipping companies during the National Day holiday is relatively strong. In November, there are 6 pending voyages, 3 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 302,000 TEU/week [12] Contract Analysis - The 2510 contract may mainly reflect the freight rate quotes from the 40th to 42nd weeks. The current price may have priced in the downward trend of freight rates in the first half of October and the potential upward risk in the second half, and is short - term weak. The 2512 contract should not be over - estimated due to potential negative factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure. The 2602 contract may not show a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [13] Strategy - This week, consider taking profits on the 2510 contract at low prices. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads [14] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]

Group 1 - The Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is experiencing significant activity, with a focus on the progress of an intelligent parking project and infrastructure construction, which faced delays due to land acquisition and approval processes [1] - The local disciplinary inspection and supervision authorities are actively addressing administrative bottlenecks to optimize the port city's layout and support the development of a modern port [1] - Emphasis is placed on the high-quality development of the marine economy, with a commitment to political supervision in key areas related to marine economic development [1] Group 2 - The establishment of an internationally influential shipping center is identified as a key element in developing the marine economy, with ongoing supervision of major projects at the Shanghai International Shipping Center [2] - The Shanghai disciplinary inspection team is focusing on 14 key supervision items related to marine industry development, ensuring accountability and task clarity among responsible parties [2] - Technological innovation is highlighted as a core driver for high-quality marine economic development, with oversight on the implementation of marine research policies and funding usage [2] Group 3 - In Qingdao, the local disciplinary inspection authorities are engaging with research institutions to address urgent issues in hardware and technology, resulting in the resolution of 31 significant problems [3] - A mechanism has been established to integrate technological breakthroughs with policy support and financial innovation in the marine sector [3] - The Weifang municipal authorities are actively identifying and addressing common technological challenges in the marine industry, creating a list of over 100 issues to tackle [4] Group 4 - The protection of the marine ecological environment is crucial for high-quality marine economic development, with ongoing supervision to ensure accountability in ecological protection efforts [4] - The North Sea City is focusing on the protection of mangrove ecosystems, integrating ecological protection into political supervision and addressing corruption related to environmental issues [4] - The local authorities are implementing measures to enhance the management and restoration of mangrove ecosystems, ensuring compliance with ecological protection standards [4]

首席点 评 ： 股指独领风骚，商品蓄势待发 开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市、杭甬温、合肥都市圈等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。中国商务部：密 切关注墨方提税动向，中方将根据实际情况采取必要措施。美国通胀基本符合预期，8月核心CPI同比增3.1%，环比 增0.3%，持平华尔街预期和7月；美上周首申失业金人数不降反增至26.3万，创近四年新高。欧洲央行连续两次会议 按兵不动，认为通胀压力得到控制；行长拉加德放鹰：欧元区降通胀过程现已结束，贸易不确定性已明显减弱。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指全线反弹，通信板块领涨，市场成交额2.46万亿元。资金方面，9月10 日融资余额增加57.74亿元至23092.69亿元。2025年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期，四季度为 提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，美联储9月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产 吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，但需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的 中证500和中证1000指数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利 ...

希腊《海运报》9月1日报道，希腊海运和岛屿政策部针对偏远航线的新招标项目为岛屿居民和沿海 航运公司带来了多重利益。该项目为期四年，总资金6.68亿欧元。项目不仅确保了稳定可靠的航线，还 为岛民提供额外的折扣和社会福利，促进当地经济和旅游业的发展。对于沿海航运公司，新的四年期合 同提供了可预测性和财务安全性，使其能够吸引资金用于投资和船队现代化以及遵守环保要求。这些航 线连接小型或偏远岛屿，商业需求有限，如果没有国家资助，航运航线的运营在经济上是不可行的。 （原标题：希腊为偏远岛屿提供6.68亿欧元资金） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Huayuan International Land Port Group Co., Ltd., a shareholder holding more than 5% of Phoenix Shipping (Wuhan) Co., Ltd., plans to reduce its shareholding due to operational development needs [1][2]. - Huayuan International Land Port Group holds 59,879,204 shares, accounting for 5.9164% of the total share capital of the company, which were acquired through judicial auction in May 2021 [2]. - The reduction plan will take place from October 13, 2025, to January 12, 2026, with a maximum reduction of 30,362,400 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [2][3]. Group 2 - The reduction will be executed through centralized bidding and block trading, with a limit of 10,120,800 shares (1% of total share capital) via centralized bidding and 20,241,600 shares (2% of total share capital) via block trading [2]. - The actual implementation of the reduction plan will depend on market conditions and the company's stock price, indicating uncertainty in the timing, price, and quantity of the shares to be reduced [3]. - Huayuan International Land Port Group assures that the reduction will not affect the company's governance structure or ongoing operations, and they will comply with relevant laws and regulations during the process [3].

Summary of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) - **Industry**: Shipping and Logistics Key Points Industry Performance - The container shipping business has performed exceptionally well, offsetting pressures in the oil shipping market, showcasing stable operational capabilities through diversification [2][3] - The global oil shipping market is experiencing improvements due to OPEC's production cuts and geopolitical factors, with potential demand growth expected in the first half of 2025 [2][7] - OPEC's unexpected production increase is anticipated to significantly boost global oil trade volumes, benefiting the oil shipping industry [8][9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, with the oil shipping segment performing strongly and container shipping growing by 15% year-on-year [5][21] - Despite a 15% year-on-year decline in net profit, the second quarter showed a recovery with a profit of 1.26 billion yuan, marking a 40% increase from the first quarter [21] Container Shipping Developments - The company is focusing on small-scale operations primarily in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, with recent expansions into Mexican routes [4] - The company plans to independently operate LNG vessels in the near future, indicating a strategy of diversification in container shipping [4] Oil Shipping Market Insights - The oil shipping market has seen a restructuring of trade patterns, with average shipping distances increasing by approximately 7% since the second half of 2022 [6] - Factors contributing to the decline in oil shipping market conditions in the second half of 2024 include geopolitical tensions and reduced demand from China [7] - The anticipated increase in oil production from South America in the second half of 2025 is expected to enhance global oil shipping demand [11] Dry Bulk Shipping Outlook - The Simandou project is set to commence production in November 2025, expected to significantly increase global iron ore shipping volumes [18] - The dry bulk market has faced challenges, with average annual growth rates around 3%, but potential exists for future demand growth [15][17] Long-term Industry Trends - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in oil and iron ore production increases, with a stable outlook for the next two years [14][22] - The aging fleet and limited new ship orders are expected to create supply rigidity, supporting market conditions for the company [14] Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 40% [22] Additional Insights - The company’s diversified operations across multiple segments have allowed it to maintain stable performance despite market fluctuations [3][22] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and changes in trade routes are influencing shipping dynamics, particularly in oil and dry bulk sectors [10][12][19]

凤凰航运公告，持股5.9164%股东华远国际陆港集团有限公司拟于2025年10月13日至2026年1月12日， 通过集中竞价和大宗交易合计减持不超过3036.24万股，占公司总股本3%。其中集中竞价不超1012.08万 股，占1%；大宗交易不超2024.16万股，占2%。 ...

俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 | 2025-09-11 | 基差（点） | 日涨跌（点） | 周涨跌（点） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 362.66 | 63.60 | -110.24 | | EC2512 | -42.64 | 64.90 | -140.24 | | EC2602 | 69.06 | 26.60 | -185.84 | | EC2604 | 324.46 | 4.00 | -201.34 | | EC2606 | 135.86 | 13.30 | -194.74 | | EC2608 | -28.54 | 5.00 | -194.74 | source： 同花顺iFinD、南华研究 EC价格及价差 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market is experiencing downward pressure on spot freight rates due to major shipping companies competing to lower rates in mid to late September and early October to increase cargo volume [4][5]. Supply Side - New ship deliveries are expected to exert long-term pressure on freight rates, with significant supply pressure anticipated in the future. Short-term supply remains ample, and the easing of congestion at European ports has effectively released capacity [5][10]. - By August 2025, approximately 192,000 TEU of new ships are scheduled for delivery, an increase of 55,000 TEU from July. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) predicts that 2.3 million TEU of new capacity will be delivered from 2025 to 2026, leading to a net growth of 7.2% in the global container fleet before the dismantling of older vessels [10]. - Currently, the global container ship order volume stands at 10.4 million TEU, with the ratio of ordered capacity to existing capacity rising to 31.7%, indicating significant supply pressure on freight rates [10]. Demand Side - China's imports and exports continued to grow steadily in August, but the growth rate has slowed, primarily due to weaker exports to the U.S. However, exports to the EU have reached a new high for 2023, driven by the energy transition in Europe, which has increased imports of high-value container goods [11]. - Despite this, the demand for sea freight is expected to weaken in the short term as the replenishment of inventory in the Eurozone has concluded and retailers are cautious about importing consumer goods due to inflation and high inventory levels [11]. - The restructuring of shipping alliances has led to a decrease in market concentration, reducing the ability of leading companies to control freight rates, resulting in a price competition strategy to gain market share [11]. Market Strategy - For the EC2510 contract, there is a potential further downside pressure on freight rates, with an estimated 5% decline in valuation. The EC2512 contract should not be overly bearish, as there may be opportunities for rebound after a dip [7][12]. - It is suggested that spot enterprises consider partial hedging based on their shipping plans for the next month, and to look for rebound opportunities after the EC2512 contract dips [12]. - In terms of arbitrage, there are opportunities in the EC2602-EC2606 spread [7][12].

Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: September 11, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the shipping market is complex, with different trends in different routes and contracts. The EC market shows a volatile trend, and the spot freight rates have not stopped falling. It is recommended to short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1444, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous value of 1445 [5] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1149, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous value of 1156 [5] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2189, an increase of 13.83% from the previous value of 1923 [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 980, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous value of 1013 [5] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3073, an increase of 7.22% from the previous value of 2866 [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1315, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous value of 1481 [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1566, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous value of 1773 [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1971, a decrease of 8.11% from the previous value of 2145 [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price changes range from -0.85% to 0.66% [5] - **Contract Positions**: For positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the changes range from 17 to 729 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -406.6, 150.0, and 428.0 respectively, with changes of 7.6, -5.5, and 1.8 [5] Market News - **Trade Focus Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus, with Southeast Asia and Africa becoming the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the direct - call voyages from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March [6] - **Trade Negotiation Strategy**: Beijing has adopted a new stance in Sino - US trade negotiations, maintaining dialogue but making few concessions, resulting in a subtle "easing" but no substantial trade agreement in the short term [6] - **Trans - Pacific Demand**: The suspension of services by Premier Alliance indicates a decline in trans - Pacific demand, and the number of empty voyages on the US East Coast increased in the first week of September [6] - **India - Europe Route**: The freight rates on the India - Europe route have been lowered due to the normalization of capacity and the lack of obvious peak - season demand. Freight forwarders expect further declines in September, with rates per TEU possibly dropping to $1,100 - $1,200 [6] - **Tariff Ruling**: The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing "fentanyl tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA, but the ruling is suspended until October 14, 2025. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court [6][7] Container Freight Prices - **GBMINI**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. Maersk's wk38 opening price is 1700; HPL - QQ is 1900 in September, and HPL - SPOT is 1550 [9] - **O1**: The overall average of the alliance is 1950; CMA is 2000, and OOCL is 1900 [9] - **PA**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. ONE is 2100, and HMM is 1700 - 1900 [9] - **MSC**: The reported price in September is 2050 [9] - **Logic**: Maersk's wk39 opening price is 1550, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. OCC1 has dropped to 1600, and there may be further price drops in September. As market optimism fades and attention refocuses on spot quotes, spot freight rates have not stopped falling. Pre - holiday stockpiling before October 1st may lead to price competition in the second half of September, and the transfer of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [9] Strategy - Short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]