Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in bank stocks following strong earnings reports from major financial institutions, alongside positive macroeconomic indicators suggesting stability in the labor market and a potential pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][5][8]. Group 1: Bank Stocks Performance - Major bank stocks experienced substantial gains, with BlackRock and Morgan Stanley rising nearly 6%, and Goldman Sachs and Citigroup increasing over 4% [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley reported Q4 2025 revenues of $17.89 billion, a 10.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $17.77 billion, with earnings per share at $2.68, also above the forecast of $2.44 [5]. - Goldman Sachs disclosed Q4 2025 revenues of $13.45 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, slightly below market expectations, but Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $14.01, significantly surpassing the forecast by $2.25 [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 for the week ending January 10, significantly below the market expectation of 215,000 and lower than the previous value of 208,000, indicating a stable labor market [8]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated a likely pause in interest rate cuts due to signs of labor market stabilization and ongoing inflation pressures [7][8]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the importance of reducing inflation to 2%, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed opposition to further rate cuts amid persistent inflation [8].

转自：新华财经 在1月15日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜释放了今年降准降息有一定空间的信 号。他表示，2026年人民银行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应， 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，为经济稳定增长和高质量发展创造适宜的货币金融环境。同时，邹澜宣 布，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施：一方面，是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，提高银行重 点领域信贷投放的积极性；另一方面，是完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优 化。对于备受市场关注的降准降息问题，邹澜表示，从今年看还有一定的空间。从法定存款准备金率 看，目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%，降准仍然有空间。 2026年车市大幕初启，主流车企陆续披露年度销量目标，勾勒出存量竞争下的发展图景。截至目前，已 有吉利、长安、奇瑞、零跑、小米等10余家主流车企明确今年销量目标，总量合计超2155万辆，约相当 于2025年国内汽车总销量的63%。整体呈现显著分化：传统自主车企锁定10%至30%的稳健增速，聚焦 新能源车与出海双引擎；新势力及跨界品牌则以34%至67.5%的激进目标抢占份额，凸显规模 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices on Wall Street rose collectively after two days of decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 292.81 points, or 0.60%, closing at 49,442.44 points; the Nasdaq Composite increased by 58.27 points, or 0.25%, to 23,530.02 points; and the S&P 500 gained 17.87 points, or 0.26%, ending at 6,944.47 points [1] - The semiconductor sector strengthened significantly due to TSMC's strong earnings report, which reignited confidence in AI-related demand [2] - Financial stocks rebounded as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected earnings, with Morgan Stanley's stock rising by 5.8% and Goldman Sachs by 4.6%, both reaching new closing highs [2] Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC's stock rose by 4.5% after reporting record quarterly earnings, with profits increasing by 35% year-over-year, boosting market confidence in AI demand [2] - Goldman Sachs reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $4.6 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $14.01, a 12% year-over-year increase; Morgan Stanley's net profit grew by 18% to $4.4 billion, driven by a 47% surge in trading revenue [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.76%, reaching a record close, with intraday gains nearing 4% before tapering off [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.156%, while the 2-year yield increased by 4.4 basis points to 3.558%, with market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve remaining stable at about 5% [6]

仍具韧性，缓解了市场对科技股估值过高的担忧。 | く コ | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 65631.36 129.85 0.20% | | | | 资料 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | | 月度 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 消 | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | 186.990 | | | NVDA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLAT ... | | 620.800 | | | META.O | | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | | 238.180 | | | AMZN.O | | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 438.570 | | | TSLA.O | | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | | 456.660 | | | MSFT.O | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 258.210 | | | AAPL.O | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | | 333.160 | | | GOOG.O | | | | 在经历连续两日的回调后，华尔街主要股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive trend in the U.S. stock market driven by strong earnings reports from major financial institutions and optimistic guidance from TSMC, which has reignited investor interest in technology stocks [2][4]. Financial Sector Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.60%, Nasdaq up 0.25%, and S&P 500 up 0.26% as of January 15 [4]. - Major financial stocks surged, with Morgan Stanley rising nearly 6% to reach a historical high, and Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both increasing over 4% [4]. - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, saw its assets under management reach a record $14.04 trillion, increasing by 5.9% in Q4 [4]. Earnings Reports - Morgan Stanley reported Q4 revenue of $17.89 billion, a 10.3% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of $17.77 billion, with earnings per share at $2.68, surpassing the forecast of $2.44 [4]. - Goldman Sachs disclosed Q4 revenue of $13.45 billion, a 3% year-over-year decline, slightly below expectations, but Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $14.01, significantly exceeding the forecast of $2.25 [4]. TSMC's Impact on Technology Stocks - TSMC's Q4 gross margin exceeded 60% for the first time, with net profit reaching $16 billion, a 35% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations [5]. - TSMC plans to significantly increase capital expenditures to $56 billion in 2026, a 37% increase from 2025, to capitalize on AI opportunities, with revenue growth expectations close to 30% [5]. - Following TSMC's report, its stock rose 4.4%, contributing to a broader rally in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.76% [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Recent labor market data showed initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the expected 215,000, alleviating concerns about labor market weakness [8]. - Several Federal Reserve officials indicated support for pausing interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, citing a stable labor market and persistent inflation pressures [8]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the need to bring inflation down to 2%, while other officials expressed caution against further rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [8].

金融监管总局在1月15日召开的2026年监管工作会议上，统筹安排了5项今年的重点任务。 在提升金融服务经济社会质效方面，金融"五篇大文章"仍是今年的一项重点任务。同时，本次会议还强调，要 坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，持续加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。强化促消费、扩 投资的金融供给，高效服务扩大内需战略。优化科技金融服务，积极培育耐心资本，助力新质生产力发展。加 强应急救灾、养老健康、乡村全面振兴等民生领域金融支持。更好发挥支持小微企业融资协调工作机制作用， 优化新就业群体金融服务，着力促进稳企业稳就业。 其中，中小金融机构风险化解仍位列各项任务首位，对于其他重点领域的风险防控，会议指出，要推动城市房 地产融资协调机制常态化运行，依法合规支持融资平台债务风险化解。 在今年监管工作的重点任务中，会议首先强调，要有力有序有效推进中小金融机构风险化解。着力处置存量风 险，坚决遏制增量风险，牢牢守住不"爆雷"底线。金融监管总局自成立以来，已连续三年在年度工作部署中将 中小金融机构改革化险置于各项工作首位。其中，2024年工作会议强调，要全力推进中小金融机构改革化险， 把握好时度效，有计划、分步骤开展 ...

美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.60%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指涨0.25%。芯片股在台积电亮眼财报推动下上涨，应用材料、阿斯麦涨超5%，台积电涨 超4%，英伟达涨超2%。银行股走强，贝莱德、摩根士丹利涨超5%，高盛、花旗涨超4%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.6%，热门中概股多数下跌，网易、携程、有道跌超2%，京东跌1.4%，百度跌0.7%，哔哩哔哩跌0.6%，阿里巴巴涨0.6%，理想 汽车、小鹏汽车、蔚来涨超1%。 ...

格隆汇1月16日｜中信建投研报指出，政府债靠前发力+高基数下支撑力度减弱，社融同比少增，符合 预期。12月对公信贷投放边际改善，预计主要是银行开门红项目储备前置发力。零售信贷投放仍显低 迷，期待宏观经济修复与政策协同发力带动需求回升。高基数下M1增速持续回落，M2增速环比提升， M2-M1剪刀差扩大至4.7%。2026年延续了积极的财政政策基调以及相对宽松的货币政策，政府债仍将 是社融增长重要动能。预计2026年信贷增速仍将保持在7%-8%左右，银行基本面的真正改善仍需等待信 贷需求和经济预期的进一步好转。 ...

人民财讯1月16日电，中信建投指出，2025年12月社融新增2.21万亿，同比少增0.65万亿。政府债靠前发 力+高基数下支撑力度减弱，社融同比少增，符合预期。12月对公信贷投放边际改善，预计主要是银行 开门红项目储备前置发力。零售信贷投放仍显低迷，期待宏观经济修复与政策协同发力带动需求回升。 2026年延续了积极的财政政策基调以及相对宽松的货币政策，政府债仍将是社融增长重要动能。预计 2026年信贷增速仍将保持在7%—8%左右，银行基本面的真正改善仍需等待信贷需求和经济预期的进一 步好转。 转自：证券时报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that holding cash deposits in 2026 is a wise financial strategy, especially in a deflationary environment where purchasing power is increasing despite low interest rates [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The average CPI growth in 2025 was 0%, indicating a shift into a deflationary cycle, which enhances the purchasing power of cash deposits [1]. - Prices of essential goods and services have decreased significantly, with the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities dropping by 8.36% year-on-year, and first-tier cities seeing over a 30% decline from peak prices [3]. Group 2: Investment Risks - The investment market in 2026 is fraught with risks, as 81% of retail investors reported losses in 2025, averaging a loss of 21,000 yuan per person [3][4]. - Many investors have been trapped in high-risk stocks and funds, with public funds averaging a 20% loss in 2024, and some bank wealth management products even yielding negative returns [3][4]. Group 3: Advantages of Holding Cash - Cash deposits provide safety and security, as they are protected by deposit insurance, ensuring 100% compensation for amounts up to 500,000 yuan [4]. - Having sufficient cash reserves allows individuals to navigate crises more effectively, providing options during unemployment or unexpected medical expenses [6]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a unique opportunity for cash holders to buy quality assets at lower prices, as property and stock prices are declining [7]. - Investors with cash can strategically wait for the right moment to invest, capitalizing on lower asset prices when the market stabilizes [7]. Group 5: Cash Management Strategies - Effective cash management involves reasonable allocation, such as using money market funds for emergency funds and higher-yielding fixed deposits for long-term savings [9]. - The article suggests that in 2026, saving money is not merely a conservative choice but a smart strategy to cope with economic fluctuations and enhance purchasing power [9].