Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Demand negative feedback, unilateral trend is weak [1] - PTA: In the off - season of demand, unilateral trend is weak [1] - MEG: Low inventory, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Supply remains tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: Uncertainty about the start - up progress of Sanfangxiang and Yisheng's production cut. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline, single - side shows a strong - biased oscillatory market, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On July 15, the price of PX fell. The estimated price was 838 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars from the 14th. Asian crude oil futures declined. The demand slump of Asian polyester chains pressured upstream PX. Petronas plans to shut down its 550,000 - ton/year PX plant from mid - August for about a month [3][5] - PTA: On July 15, the spot price of PTA dropped to 4715 yuan/ton [5] - MEG: On July 15, the average spot price was 4408 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from July 14 - 20 was about 45,000 tons [6] - Polyester: On July 15, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 49% [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8] Views and Suggestions - PX: The market focuses on Sanfangxiang's start - up progress. Supply is tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: The market focuses on whether Sanfangxiang's start - up will be postponed and whether Yisheng will increase production cuts. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low. Go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread when the spread is low [10]

Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market for various chemical products is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [2][7][14] - The market for rubber products is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [10][11][14] - The asphalt market is currently in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [17][29] - The polyethylene market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [30][31] - The caustic soda market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [36][38] - The pulp market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [41][44] - The glass market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [46] - The methanol market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [49][51] - The urea market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [53][54] - The styrene market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [56] - The soda ash market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [58] - The LPG market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [62][68] - The PVC market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [70][71] - The fuel oil market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [74] - The container shipping market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [76][84] Group 3: Specific Company Analysis - PX: supply and demand are stable, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a positive outlook for the future [7] - PTA: supply is increasing, and demand is weakening, with prices expected to decline [7][8] - MEG: supply is increasing, and demand is weakening, with prices expected to decline [9] - Rubber: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [11] - Synthetic rubber: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [14] - Asphalt: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [17][29] - LLDPE: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [30][31] - PP: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [34] - Caustic soda: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [36][38] - Pulp: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [41][44] - Glass: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [46] - Methanol: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [49][51] - Urea: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [53][54] - Styrene: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [56] - Soda ash: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [58] - LPG: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [62][68] - PVC: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [70][71] - Fuel oil: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [74] - Container shipping: the market is in a state of shock, with prices fluctuating and demand and supply being complex and changeable [76][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, with the Asian PX operating rate at 73.6% (-0.5%). The supply and demand of PX in July are still tight, and the monthly spread is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [5]. - PTA: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Go long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract, and go long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA increases while the demand decreases, and the polyester operating rate drops. Although there is supply pressure, the downside space of the unilateral price is limited due to the low raw material inventory of polyester factories, and the processing fee is still under downward pressure [6]. - MEG: Unilateral oscillatory market, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. The supply of MEG increases while the demand decreases, but the inventory is at a low level, and the coal price rebounds, so the MEG price rebounds. In the case of limited import increase, go for positive spread arbitrage for ethylene glycol monthly spreads when the price is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 210,000 - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory stopped due to a reforming unit failure, initially expected to last about 20 days. Another 210,000 - ton/year PX production line of Idemitsu in Japan stopped on July 11 due to technical problems, and the exact time for repair and restart is unknown until next week. The Asian PX price further declined during the closing assessment, with the trading price of September short - haul cargo between Glencore and Hengli at $834/ton [3][5]. Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6694 | 4700 | 4305 | 6388 | 513.9 | | Change | 6782 | -42 | -20 | -52 | -8.6 | | Change Rate | -88 | -0.89% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.65% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 74 | 38 | -26 | 120 | 9.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 64 | 12 | -33 | 102 | 10.2 | | Change | 10 | 26 | 7 | 18 | -0.5 | [2] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 836.67 | 4715 | 4383 | 584.25 | 72.63 | | Previous Day's Price | 851.67 | 4735 | 4386 | 591 | 70.58 | | Change | -15 | -20 | -3 | -6.75 | 2.04 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 256.67 | 158.43 | 304.31 | -410.69 | -7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 251.42 | 165.64 | 301.29 | -453.71 | -7.42 | | Change | 5.25 | -7.21 | 3.02 | 43.02 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene futures price has strengthened, with the futures premium expanding, and the basis structure shows a negative basis. The fundamentals indicate that there is still pressure from South Korea's exports to China, domestic production is high, downstream demand is mixed, and the processing fee is weak [3]. - For styrene, port inventories are accumulating, the discount on the futures has narrowed, production profits are under pressure to compress, and downstream demand is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene futures premium has widened significantly, with the 2603BZ futures contract having a premium of about 170 yuan/ton over the spot [3]. - Figures related to the basis and inter - period spread are presented, including the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third styrene contracts [8][12][14]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene processing fees are weak, with the CFR China processing fee at 145 dollars/ton (-7 dollars/ton) and the FOB South Korea processing fee at 131 dollars/ton (-5 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene non - integrated production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), but it is expected to gradually compress [1]. - Various spreads and production profit figures are shown in the corresponding figures, such as the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, etc. [18][20][27]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.40 million tons (-0.30 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 111,500 tons (+12,700 tons), with East China commercial inventory at 39,000 tons (+7,700 tons) [1]. - The pure benzene operating rate situation is not clearly described in quantity, and the styrene operating rate is 80.0% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 41 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 259 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 391 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 55.88% (-3.84%), PS operating rate is 51.10% (-1.30%), and ABS operating rate is 65.04% (-0.96%), at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Among pure benzene downstream products, the caprolactam production profit is - 1560 yuan/ton (+0), the phenol - ketone production profit is - 564 yuan/ton (+0), the aniline production profit is 134 yuan/ton (-389), and the adipic acid production profit is - 1415 yuan/ton (-27) [1]. - The caprolactam operating rate is 95.72% (+6.41%), the phenol operating rate is 78.50% (-0.50%), the aniline operating rate is 69.24% (-0.10%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 64.30% (+2.00%) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell pure benzene and styrene on rallies for hedging [4]. - Cross - product: Narrow the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was found. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a weak state, with prices fluctuating at a low level and overall trading being rather stagnant. The downstream polyester production and sales are generally light, and the reduction in production scale is gradually increasing. At the same time, the supply is expected to increase as multiple ethylene glycol units complete maintenance. The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of crude oil trends. Overall, the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The mid - price of naphtha is $577.00 per ton on 2025/7/7, up 0.30% from the previous value; the upstream cost on 202/4/8 is 1.00, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is 6,450.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/8, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is 4,42.02 yuan per ton on 202/24, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract is 4,282.00 yuan per ton on 202, down 0.26% from the previous value; the settlement price of the nearby contract is 4,226.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The market mid - price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 430.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near and far months is 56.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, and the basis is - 11.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is 1.00 on 202, down 2.00 from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is 8,750.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, up 1.41% from the previous value; the price index of polyester chips is 10.00 on 202, up 1.72% from the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,710.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, unchanged from the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade chips is 90.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - An Anhui synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons is expected to resume operation this month after a mid - month shutdown and maintenance [2]. - The operating rate of the polyester industry chain: the operating rate of PTA factories is 87.30% on 2025/7/7, down 0.94% from the previous value; the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 61.22% on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are 1.0%, 0%, and 0% respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. Trade and Strategy Information - The mainstream negotiation price of external - market naphtha - based ethylene glycol is around $410.99 per ton on 202; the negotiation price of external - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol is around $144.15 per ton on 2025/7/4 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is 1,800.00 yuan per ton on 202, up 24.67 from the previous value [1]. - In the trading strategy, the trading volume of the current stage is 160,000 lots, and the price is 2,092.90 yuan per ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each commodity [2] - Different commodities are expected to have different market trends, such as some in a state of shock, some with upward or downward pressure, and some with specific trading strategies recommended Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PTA new device is about to be put into production, but PX supply - demand remains tight. Suggest monthly spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels [4][7][12] - **PTA**: Stop profit on long PX short PTA, and conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, and it is recommended to focus on monthly spread reverse arbitrage [4][12] - **MEG**: It is a single - sided shock market. Suggest basis and monthly spread positive arbitrage, and do not chase short on a single - sided valuation. Import is expected to be tight in August, and it is recommended to go long on a single - sided basis at low levels [4][13][14] Rubber - Rubber is expected to run in a shock state. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract have changed slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly [15][16][17] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is under shock pressure. The cost side is weakening, and the supply increment is greater than the demand increment. The NR - BR spread may support the price [19][20][21] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to rise in a shock state with a downward valuation adjustment. The weekly output has increased, and both factory and social inventories have accumulated [22][34] LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be in a short - term weak shock state. The macro - situation has led to a premium retracement, and the supply pressure is increasing while the demand is weak [35][36] PP - PP spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. Futures are oscillating downward, and downstream demand is weak [40][41] Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda futures has rebounded due to the sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices. The short - term spot has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large, and the cost has increased [43][45] Pulp - Pulp is expected to run in a shock state. The spot price is stable, the supply pressure is not relieved, and the demand is weak [49][51][52] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market shows a trend of mixed rise and fall, and the downstream demand is not strong [55][56] Methanol - Methanol is expected to run in a short - term shock state. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has also weakened. It is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [59][61] Urea - Urea is expected to run in a shock state. The domestic market is supported by domestic demand and export, and the inventory is in a shock pattern. There is a multi - empty game in the short term [63][64][66] Styrene - Styrene is expected to be in a short - term shock state. Pay attention to the listing of pure benzene futures, and different trading strategies are recommended [67][71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is in a low - level shock state, with supply at a high level and weak demand [74][76] LPG - LPG is expected to have a short - term wide - range shock. The PDH and other开工 rates have changed, and there are many device maintenance plans [79][81][87] PVC - PVC is in a short - term shock state with pressure in the later stage. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [91][92] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session followed the rise in crude oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may increase again [95] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [95] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2508 contract is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is recommended to hold a light short position in the EC2510 contract [97]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which is expected to enhance risk management tools for the propylene industry and support high-quality development [1] Industry Summary - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product with upstream raw materials including crude oil, naphtha, coal, methanol, and propane, and downstream products such as polypropylene, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile, which are widely used in various sectors like home appliances, automotive, textiles, medical devices, and cosmetics [1] - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to provide a pivotal role in the industry chain, offering enhanced risk management tools for enterprises, facilitating better hedging strategies, and improving the resilience of the industry chain [1] Company Impact - The launch of propylene futures and options is seen as a significant milestone for the domestic futures market, providing robust inventory hedging tools and processing interval hedging tools for upstream and downstream enterprises in the propylene industry [2] - Major companies in the industry, such as Donghua Energy, have indicated that the new futures and options will help fill the gap in the C3 chain, allowing firms to lock in propylene purchase and sales prices, thus mitigating risks from price fluctuations in the spot market [2] - Companies like Jinneng Chemical have expressed that using propylene futures can help secure processing profits and reduce operational losses, contributing to stable business development [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic propylene enterprises are actively expanding into international markets, but often rely on limited and less transparent pricing from foreign information agencies; the introduction of propylene futures is expected to enhance the international pricing influence of Chinese propylene [3] - The simultaneous launch of propylene futures and options will cater to the diverse and personalized risk management needs of enterprises, allowing for flexible selection of various option contracts and strategies [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is committed to ensuring a smooth launch of propylene futures and options, conducting market cultivation activities, and promoting typical case studies to enrich enterprise risk management strategies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：周内伊以停火后，油价迅速回吐地缘溢价后重回震荡，上游成本支撑塌陷，PTA期货盘面跟随走低，不过供需结构上， PTA自身并未累库，预计短期内PTA现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡调整，现货基差区间波动。关注7月聚酯降负情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间波动，现货市场商谈一般，现货基差快速走弱，贸易商商谈为主。本周下周货主流在09+210~240 成交，个别偏高，价格商谈区间在5000~5060附近。7月中下在09+210有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+224。中性 2、基差：现货5050，09合约基差252，盘面贴水 偏 ...