智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，2026年一季度以来，各类存储产品价格环比急剧上涨，目前 在能见度范围内今年存储价格持续上涨可期，同时2026年全球新增供给有限，预计存储紧缺趋势将延续 至2027年。在价格与需求共振情况下，今年海内外存储将迎来业绩释放大年，后续市场价格趋势和各环 节公司业绩增长持续性是核心关注点，建议关注存储+设备+产业链三大核心环节相关公司。 招商证券主要观点如下： 库存端：产业链库存呈现显著的分化特征，原厂库存紧张将贯穿2026全年 原厂库存水位持续回落，服务器DRAM与NAND紧缺趋势预计将贯穿2026全年，奠定长期卖方市场基 础；中下游台厂与中国内地厂商普遍积极备货，其中中国内地模组厂Q3库存累计同比高增34%创历史 新高，以应对2026年供需缺口，后续有望在价格上行周期中通过低成本库存重估，释放巨大的利润弹 性。 价格端：AI产能挤占效应导致供需缺口持续扩大，26Q1合约价环比高增 现货价格方面，虽然DDR4价格首次出现小幅回调，但原厂供应停滞支撑整体价格维持高位，并不影响 整体价格走势；合约价格方面，在服务器强劲需求拉动下呈现急剧上涨态势，预计26Q1DRAM与 NAND ...

证券分析师：张良卫 执业证书编号：S0600516070001 联系电话：021-60197988 二零二六年二月六日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要：从传统周期到AI驱动的技术溢价与高成长性 证券研究报告 格局落定，价值归真：从周期波动走向技术溢价 建议关注：闪迪（SNDK.O）、SK 海力士（000660.KS）、三星电子（005930.KS）、美光科技（MU.O）。 风险提示：下游AI资本开支（CAPEX）不及预期风险； 存储原厂产能扩张失控导致供需格局恶化风险；新技术研发进度或良率爬坡不及预期风 险。 2 ➢ 增长逻辑重构：AI 带来的不是反弹，而是指数级增长的新需求，存储不再仅仅跟随宏观经济进行简单的库存周期波动，而是成为了AI算力的 决定性瓶颈（存力决定算力的效率）。 ➢ 训练端（Scaling Laws 驱动）： 模型参数量呈线性增长（如GPT-3到GPT-4增幅超9倍），直接拉动HBM（容纳参数）和SSD（存Checkpoint） 的容量需求呈指数级爆发 。 ➢ 推理端（商业化落地驱动）： 随着RAG（检索增强生成）和超长上下文（Long Context）的应用，KV Cache（ ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small increase, but overall market volume decreased significantly, with over 3700 stocks declining, indicating a persistent money-losing effect [1] - There is a notable shift in risk appetite, with funds moving from high-risk sectors to safer ones, resulting in a lack of effective profit-making opportunities across most sectors [1] Space Photovoltaics - The sector experienced a short-term surge due to news related to Elon Musk, but quickly weakened after companies like Double Good Energy and JinkoSolar denied collaboration announcements, showcasing a typical one-day trading pattern [2] - The Economic Reference reported that space photovoltaics is entering a commercial phase, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar market, but faces multiple technical challenges [2] AI Applications - AI applications showed a mixed performance with a slight recovery in some areas, but overall, the sector is experiencing structural differentiation and a lack of sustained funding [3] - Alibaba's Qianwen project is set to launch a 3 billion yuan Spring Festival initiative, and the company is testing an AI video creation tool, which may drive interest in AI applications related to consumer scenarios [4] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector remains weak, lacking sustained buying support and clear leading stocks to drive market sentiment [5] - SpaceX has submitted an application to launch a million satellites, and the U.S. FCC is processing this application, indicating ongoing developments in the commercial space sector [6] Technology Sector - The technology sector is under pressure due to declines in U.S. tech stocks, with hardware experiencing further drops, although some segments like power semiconductors showed recovery [8] - Alphabet's Q4 2025 revenue exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in cloud business revenue, indicating strong performance in AI infrastructure investments [9] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has become a core area for risk-averse funds, successfully attracting mainstream investment and demonstrating strong resilience in a volatile market [10] - Upcoming government briefings and new tax policies in Hainan are expected to stimulate consumer spending and support the sector [11] Cross-Strait Relations - The mainland is set to resume travel for Shanghai residents to Kinmen and Matsu, aiming to normalize exchanges and benefit both sides [12] Humanoid Robots - FF has launched a new robotics company and introduced several series of humanoid robots, with plans for initial deliveries by the end of February [13]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.27%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.05% [1] Storage Sector - The storage sector is rebounding in pre-market trading, with Micron Technology up over 2% after a previous drop of over 9%, SanDisk rising nearly 3% after a nearly 16% decline, and Seagate Technology increasing by 1% following a nearly 6% drop [1] Semiconductor and Chip Equipment Stocks - Semiconductor and chip equipment stocks are experiencing gains in pre-market trading, with Broadcom rising nearly 6%, and AMD and NVIDIA both increasing by over 2%. Alphabet, Google's parent company, indicated that its capital expenditures could double by 2026 [1] AI Application Software Stocks - AI application software stocks are collectively rebounding in pre-market trading, with Applovin up over 3%, Unity rising nearly 1%, Roblox increasing by over 1%, and SAP SE gaining nearly 2% [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks are generally rising in pre-market trading, with Baidu up 4.6%, Alibaba increasing by 2.7%, Pinduoduo rising by 0.7%, and NetEase up by 0.9%. NIO's pre-market gains have expanded to 10%, with expectations of adjusted operating profit between 700 million to 1.2 billion yuan for Q4 2025, marking the company's first quarter of adjusted operating profit [1] Software Industry - The U.S. software industry has seen a market value decline of $1 trillion since 2026, with hedge funds profiting $24 billion from short-selling activities [2] Qualcomm Performance - Qualcomm's stock has dropped over 11% following its earnings report, which, despite exceeding expectations for Q1 2026, indicated a revenue forecast for Q2 between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, and adjusted EPS between $2.45 and $2.65, which fell short of expectations [2] AMD Guidance - Citigroup reported that AMD's Q1 guidance exceeded market expectations but did not meet buyer expectations, leading to a "neutral" rating [2] Alphabet and Apple Collaboration - Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai announced plans to collaborate with Apple to develop the next generation of Apple's foundational models based on Gemini technology, positioning Alphabet as Apple's preferred cloud service provider [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry, suggesting that the overall performance of companies in the supply chain will be optimistic due to a tight supply situation expected to continue into 2027 [1]. Core Insights - The storage industry is projected to experience a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% for global storage bits, particularly in data centers transitioning to a ZB-level expansion cycle [15][18]. - The supply side is characterized by limited new capacity in 2026, with a forecasted growth of about 20% in bit shipments for both DRAM and NAND, leading to a sustained supply-demand mismatch [49][56]. - The report highlights a notable increase in inventory levels among downstream manufacturers, with strategic stockpiling to address anticipated demand in 2026 [9][60]. - Price trends indicate a significant rise in contract prices for DRAM and NAND, with expectations of a 90-95% and 55-60% increase respectively in Q1 2026, driven by strong server demand [9][30]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for storage is expected to grow exponentially due to AI inference, with NAND becoming increasingly critical in data centers [10][15]. - The global storage market size is anticipated to reach nearly $300 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [15][19]. - Data center storage capacity is projected to shift from EB to ZB levels, with significant contributions from AI-driven applications [18][22]. Supply Side Summary - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are set to increase significantly in 2026, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expected to invest $20 billion, $20.5 billion, and $13.5 billion respectively [49][56]. - Despite increased capital spending, effective capacity release is expected to be delayed until 2027, maintaining a seller's market [49][56]. - The report notes that the shipment growth for DRAM and NAND is expected to be around 20%, with server applications accounting for over 45% of shipments [50][51]. Inventory Side Summary - The report indicates a significant divergence in inventory levels across the supply chain, with tight inventory conditions expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][60]. - Downstream manufacturers, particularly in mainland China, are actively increasing their inventory levels to prepare for the anticipated supply-demand gap in 2026 [9][60]. Price Side Summary - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in storage prices, with significant increases in contract prices expected due to ongoing supply constraints and strong demand from AI applications [9][30]. - The overall price index for storage products has shown a rapid increase since the second half of 2025, with expectations of further price hikes across all categories [9][30]. Sales Side Summary - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue and profit for major manufacturers in the storage industry, driven by the ongoing demand surge and strategic inventory management [9][60]. - The overall industry revenue for DRAM and Flash is projected to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, reflecting a 134% year-on-year increase [9][60].

Group 1 - The company, Wanrun Technology, stated that it currently has no significant matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed [2] - The company is implementing an investment layout in the storage industry, aligning with the new generation of information technology as its main industry [2] - The investment strategy is based on a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic conditions, trends in the storage industry, and the company's actual situation [2]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.27%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.05% [1] Storage Sector - The storage sector saw a pre-market rebound, with Micron Technology rising over 2% after a previous drop of over 9%, SanDisk increasing nearly 3% following a nearly 16% decline, and Seagate Technology up by 1% after a nearly 6% drop [1] Semiconductor and Chip Equipment Stocks - Semiconductor and chip equipment stocks experienced a pre-market increase, with Broadcom rising nearly 6%, and both AMD and NVIDIA increasing by over 2%. Alphabet, Google's parent company, indicated that its capital expenditures could double by 2026 [1] AI Application Software Stocks - AI application software stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading, with Applovin rising over 3%, Unity increasing nearly 1%, Roblox up by over 1%, and SAP SE rising nearly 2% [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase in pre-market trading, with Baidu rising by 4.6%, Alibaba up by 2.7%, Pinduoduo increasing by 0.7%, and NetEase rising by 0.9% [1] Software Industry Performance - The U.S. software industry has seen a market capitalization decline of $1 trillion since 2026, with hedge funds profiting $24 billion from short-selling activities [2] Qualcomm's Earnings Guidance - Qualcomm's stock fell over 11% after reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q1 of fiscal year 2026, but provided a revenue forecast for Q2 between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, which was below expectations [2] AMD's Market Guidance - Citigroup reported that AMD's Q1 guidance exceeded market expectations but did not meet buyer expectations, maintaining a "neutral" rating on the stock [2] Alphabet's Collaboration with Apple - Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai announced a collaboration with Apple to develop the next generation of Apple's foundational model based on Gemini technology, positioning Alphabet as Apple's preferred cloud service provider [3]

Demand Side - The global storage bit demand CAGR is expected to maintain around 20%, with the server market share gradually increasing [12][13][19] - AI inference is driving the demand for a three-tier storage architecture, highlighting the growing importance of NAND in data centers [24][25] - The global storage industry market size is projected to reach nearly $300 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [12][13] Supply Side - New supply in 2026 is expected to be limited, with bit shipment growth projected at around 20% for both DRAM and NAND [35][41] - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are set to increase significantly in 2026, but effective capacity release will be delayed until 2027 [41][43] - The supply-demand mismatch is expected to persist, maintaining a seller's market until 2027 [3][35] Inventory Side - Manufacturer inventory levels are expected to remain tight throughout 2026, with a significant increase in strategic stocking by downstream manufacturers [46][47] - Original manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, while downstream module manufacturers are actively increasing stock to meet anticipated demand [46][56] - Domestic module manufacturers have reported record-high inventory levels, which will support revenue and profit growth in 2026 [56][58] Price Side - The AI-driven demand is leading to a significant price increase, with contract prices for DRAM and NAND expected to rise sharply in Q1 2026 [4][5] - The overall price index has been accelerating since the second half of 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [4][5] - The combination of rising prices and demand is expected to drive substantial revenue growth across the entire storage industry in 2026 [5][12] Sales Side - The supply-demand mismatch is driving simultaneous increases in volume and price across the industry, with original manufacturers locking in high growth [5][12] - Revenue and profit for major manufacturers are expected to reach historical highs in Q4 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 due to strong AI demand [5][12] - Domestic and overseas manufacturers are expected to benefit from strategic inventory advantages, leading to significant performance improvements [5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Shannon Chip's Haipu Storage is set to achieve annual scale profitability, with projected net profit for 2025 estimated between 480 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 81.77% to 134.78% [1] Company Summary - The demand for enterprise-level storage is continuously increasing due to the robust development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the construction of Internet Data Centers (IDC) [1] - The company anticipates a sales growth of over 40% for the year, driven by an increase in the quantity of enterprise-level storage products sold and rising prices of key products [1] - Haipu Storage has launched multiple products in its two main product lines, enterprise-level SSDs and enterprise-level DRAM, which have entered mass production [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, Haipu Storage expects to achieve sales revenue of 1.7 billion yuan, with an anticipated revenue of 1.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter [1] - The company has developed a dual-wing growth strategy of "distribution + product" in the high-end storage sector, benefiting from rising storage prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Shannon Chip's Haipu Storage is set to achieve annual scale profitability, with projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 480 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 81.77% to 134.78% due to the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage driven by the growth of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates a sales revenue growth of over 40% in 2025, driven by an increase in the quantity of enterprise-level storage products sold and rising prices of key products [1] - Haipu Storage has launched multiple products in its self-owned brand, including enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM, which have entered mass production [1] - The expected sales revenue for Haipu Storage in 2025 is projected to reach 1.7 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - The company has developed a "distribution + product" dual-wing development model in the high-end storage sector, benefiting from price increases in storage products [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects [1]