Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

每经AI快讯，三维股份（SH 603033，收盘价：10.52元）12月24日晚间发布公告称，三维控股集团股份 有限公司控股股东、实际控制人之一叶继跃先生持有公司股份约3.75亿股，占公司总股本的36.32%。公 司控股股东、实际控制人叶继跃先生及其一致行动人张桂玉女士合计持有公司股份约4.39亿股，占公司 总股本的42.62%，本次股份质押后，叶继跃先生及其一致行动人张桂玉女士累计质押公司股份约2.14亿 股，占其持有公司股份总数的48.61%，占公司总股本的20.72%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——左手"欠款"右手"豪购"！杨陵江收购"国内酒庄第一股"，1919是否重启上 市？"吹太多牛都实现了，但千亿还没实现，我很着急" （记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，三维股份市值为108亿元。 2025年1至6月份，三维股份的营业收入构成为：聚酯化纤占比34.23%，BDO及电石占比32.76%，橡胶 行业占比24.6%，混凝土枕占比4.78%，其他占比3.62%。 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15650 25 | 360 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 12615 -30 | 210 -10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3035 | 150 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 167630 | 21101 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 51674 | -1655 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37521 | 1478 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11718 | 1742 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 91330 | 2600 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 57758 14850 | 0 -200 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15300 | 100 | | ...

从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流入3.7万元，游资资金净流出3301.64万元，散户资金净流 入3297.94万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 6122.40万 | 5.02% | -512.30万 | -0.42% | -5610.10万 | -4.60% | | 920098 科隆新材 | | 1597.18万 | 20.34% | 299.39万 | 3.81% | -66.39万 | -0.85% | | 920225 | 利通科技 | 916.16万 | 5.82% | 768.03万 | 4.88% | -71.59万 | -0.45% | | 920665 科强股份 | | 622.53万 | 5.04% | 54.68万 | 0.44% | -135.66万 | -1.10% | | 300121 阳谷华泰 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-24 据隆众资讯了解，目前半钢四季胎市场货源相对充足，市场以消化前期库存为主，出货节奏放缓；个别规格存在 缺货情况，但需求疲软压制市场进货情绪，商家操作趋于谨慎。半钢雪地胎渠道货源储备充足，当前处于终端去 库阶段，需等待降雪频次增加以进一步释放替换需求。整体来看，市场成交平淡，价格呈弱势运行态势。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14520元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1765美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的20 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权 2025-12-24 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu is committed to transforming national strategic potential into development momentum during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, achieving significant high-quality urban development through tax modernization and support for local economic growth [1]. Tax Policy and Economic Support - Chengdu's tax authority has implemented over 210 billion yuan in tax reductions and exemptions during the "14th Five-Year Plan," effectively alleviating the burden on businesses [1]. - Tax support policies focusing on technological innovation and advanced manufacturing have contributed over 97 billion yuan in additional tax reductions, boosting corporate R&D confidence [1][4]. Innovation and Enterprise Support - Chengdu's tax service has established a comprehensive policy support system to convert macro policies into tangible benefits for market entities, enhancing stability and confidence in development [4]. - The city has developed a closed-loop management system for tax incentives, ensuring that policies are effectively communicated and implemented [5]. Green Industry Development - Chengdu is fostering a green low-carbon industry, with companies like Sichuan Zhongxin General Electric Co., which holds a 5.2%-6.6% market share in smart microgrid equipment, benefiting from tax incentives totaling over 994,000 yuan [7]. - The city has established collaborative mechanisms with various departments to promote a comprehensive tax support ecosystem for green industries [8]. Internationalization and Cross-Border Investment - Chengdu's tax environment has improved, enabling local high-tech products to gain international recognition, as seen with companies like Chengdu Rainbow Electric Group [9][10]. - The city has introduced tailored tax services for enterprises engaged in cross-border investments, resulting in direct investments of 6.807 billion yuan in "Belt and Road" countries, a 2.8% increase [11]. Future Development Strategy - Chengdu's tax authority aims to enhance tax compliance guidance and improve the efficiency of tax incentive policies to foster innovation and support high-quality urban development in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [11].