股指期货周报：股指将再受考验 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 周度核心要点及策略推荐 【综合分析】 【策略推荐】 GALAXY FUTURES 3 逻辑梳理：本周市场保持高位震荡，上证指数周五创下4034点十年新高后尾盘快速跳水。宽基指数高位震荡，仅上证50指 数出现周阳线，市场分化严重。指数的分化源自行业板块的表现，人工智能硬件——光模块、英伟达产业链、国产芯片等 纷纷跌幅居前，资金大举流出，这与美股科技龙头震荡，国产芯片龙头公布业绩后不涨反跌，日本存储公司季报远低预期 等有关。相反资金流向大消费板块，高低切换显示了避险需求。 后市展望：科技股在下周继续面临压力。中芯国际略超预期的季报并未能再动板块，反而受大市影响下跌；摩尔线程招股 使现有GPU的替代性加强，是否会有共振走强还有待观察；虽然美股科技龙头有止跌迹象，但周末华为的新技术将使投资 者对算力投资再度生疑。科技股震荡之下，股指难有集体表现，预计市场将再探支撑。 期货方面：本周基差先收敛再扩大，周三市场盘中调整见底、科技股反弹的情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the macro - economic data continued to decline, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. However, there were improvement signals in CPI and PPI, and the M1 growth rate remained high. The domestic economy's recovery was a long - term process, and the real estate market's transformation and adjustment also took time. The "Expand domestic demand, Anti - involution" policy would be an important long - term measure. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment was continuously improving. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward repair trend [3][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity declined. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises all decreased and were below the critical point. Among the 5 classification indexes, the supplier delivery time index was at the critical point, while the production, new orders, raw material inventory, and employment indexes were all below the critical point [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in October was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points. The decline in manufacturing PMI indicated insufficient demand and weak economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. CPI and PPI - In October 2025, the national CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year, while non - food prices increased. Other than food and tobacco, six of the seven major categories of prices increased year - on - year, and one decreased [8][9]. - The national PPI decreased 2.1% year - on - year in October, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers also showed similar trends. The "Anti - involution" policy had achieved some results, and the PPI was expected to turn positive in 2026 [11][12]. 3. Import and Export - In October 2025, China's exports decreased 1.1% year - on - year, imports increased 1.0% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $900.7 billion. Exports to the US decreased, while exports to ASEAN increased. Despite the poor performance in October, exports were expected to remain strong in 2025, and the real risk for foreign trade was the potential decline in global demand [14][16]. 4. Credit and Money Supply - At the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The increment of social financing scale in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The overall credit in October was weak, indicating insufficient credit confidence and demand from residents and enterprises. Although the issuance of government bonds slowed down, the M1 growth rate remained high, and the macro - liquidity improved [18][22]. 5. Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment - In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased 2.9% year - on - year. Consumption growth continued to decline, and the growth rates of automobile, catering, and real - estate - related consumption were weak. From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 1.7% year - on - year, and the growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [23][26]. 6. Real Estate Market - From January to October, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the decline continued to expand in October. The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate were at a low level. The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, but it was expected to stop falling and stabilize in the first half of 2026 [27][33]. 7. Summary and Outlook - In general, the macro - economic performance in October was weak, but there were improvement signals in inflation indicators and M1. The "Expand domestic demand, Anti - involution" policy was crucial. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025. It was necessary to track policy implementation, observe price recovery, and wait for positive macro - economic signals [34][35].

01 市场回顾 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现(2025/11/10-2025/11/14) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅 | | 法国CAC40 | 2.77% | 综合 | 6.99% | 美元兑日元 | 0.72% | | 巴西IBOVESPA指数 | 2.39% | 纺织服饰 | 4.41% | 澳元兑美元 | 0.63% | | 印度SENSEX30 | 1.62% | 商贸零售 | 4.06% | 欧元兑美元 | 0.48% | | 韩国综合指数 | 1.46% | 美容护理 | 3.75% | 欧元兑人民币 | 0.00% | | 多伦多300 | 1.41% | 医药生物 | 3.29% | 美元兄港元 | -0.06% | | 德国DAX | 1.30% | A股领跌行业 | 涨跌幅 | 美元兑英镑 | -0.11% | | 恒生指数 | 1.26% | 通信 | -4.77% | 美元兑加元 | -0.14% | | 富时新加坡海峡指数 | 1.20 ...

Key Events Summary - The 2025 Guangzhou International Home Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo will take place from November 17 to 19, impacting the consumer electronics sector [1] - The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference is scheduled for November 17 to 20, affecting the photovoltaic industry [1] - The 2025 Dubai Airshow will feature the debut of China's C919 passenger aircraft in the Middle East from November 17 to 21, influencing the aerospace sector [1] - The 2025 Shanghai International Energy Storage Technology Application Exhibition will occur from November 18 to 20, impacting the energy storage industry [1] - The 2025 China International Retail Innovation Conference is set for November 18 to 20, affecting the new consumption sector [1] - The 2025 APC Global Fiber Optic Cable Conference will take place from November 19 to 21, impacting the fiber optic cable industry [1] - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference is scheduled for November 19 to 21, influencing the financial sector [1] - The 2025 Data Storage Industry Conference will be held on November 19, impacting the semiconductor industry [1] - The initial public offering (IPO) preliminary inquiry date for Moore Threads is set for November 19, with the subscription date on November 24, affecting the semiconductor sector [1] - NVIDIA will release its Q3 2025 financial report on November 20, impacting the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors [1] - The 2025 World Computing Conference will take place from November 20 to 21, influencing the semiconductor industry [1] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference is scheduled for November 20 to 21, impacting the quantum technology sector [1] - The 2025 China 5G + Industrial Internet Conference will occur from November 21 to 23, affecting the telecommunications sector [1] - The 2025 Academic Annual Meeting of the China Rare Earth Society is set for November 21 to 24, impacting the rare metals sector [1] - Huawei will announce breakthrough technologies in AI on November 21, enhancing computing resource utilization in the semiconductor sector [1] - The 2025 China International Semiconductor Expo will take place from November 23 to 25, impacting the semiconductor industry [1]

Core Points - A total of 20 stocks received ratings from brokerages, with 6 stocks rated as "Buy" [1] - Among the stocks with target prices, Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) has the highest expected price increase of 16.19% based on the latest closing price [1][2] Company Summary - Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) received a "Buy" rating from Guotai Junan Securities, with a target price of 10.98 yuan and a closing price of 9.45 yuan, indicating a potential increase of 16.19% [2] - Other stocks rated as "Buy" include Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566.SH), Haibo Innovation (688411.SH), Shiji Performance (002602.SZ), and Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) [2] Industry Summary - The industries with the highest number of stocks receiving attention from brokerages are construction decoration, automotive, and non-ferrous metals [4]

Core Insights - Japan's economy contracted in Q3 due to weak domestic demand and U.S. tariffs, but the contraction was less severe than expected, primarily supported by stable corporate capital expenditure [1][6] - The GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.8%, better than the anticipated 2.5% decline, contrasting with a 1.6% growth in Q2 [1] - The report highlights the fragility of Japan's economic recovery and complicates the Bank of Japan's policy path [1] Economic Performance - Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the expected decline of 0.6%, while the previous quarter saw a growth of 0.5% [1] - Private consumption, accounting for about half of the economy, stagnated, and net exports became a drag on growth due to global economic slowdown and trade tensions [1][6] Capital Expenditure - Despite overall economic headwinds, corporate investment showed resilience, with capital expenditure increasing by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the market consensus of 0.3% [6] - Strong corporate investment, particularly in local infrastructure, helped mitigate the impact of weak performance in other economic areas [6] Policy Implications - The economic report presents challenges for policymakers, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 2.8% year-on-year increase in the GDP deflator [7] - The contraction in the economy limits the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy, leading to reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [7] - Attention is shifting towards potential fiscal stimulus measures from the new Prime Minister, with reports suggesting a possible 17 trillion yen economic revitalization plan [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Capital界金控 (00204) has transferred shares from 昌利证券 to 金利丰证券, with a market value of 14.0046 million HKD, representing 9.12% of the total [1] - The Hong Kong High Court approved the withdrawal of a joint application made by the company and the applicant on October 16, 2025 [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the unaudited consolidated net asset value per share of the company is approximately 1.429 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a warning regarding studying and traveling in Japan due to rising safety risks for Chinese citizens [2] - The warning highlights a significant decline in flight volumes from mainland China to Japan [2] Group 2 - The State Council meeting emphasized "promoting consumption and stabilizing investment," indicating potential new rounds of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [3] - The focus is shifting towards achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with an emphasis on consumption upgrades leading to industrial upgrades [3] Group 3 - The A-share IPO market has seen a significant increase in acceptance and review speed, with IPO acceptance volume rising over 400% year-on-year from January to October [4] - The Beijing Stock Exchange has become a primary platform for IPO applications, injecting new vitality into the market [4] Group 4 - Huawei is set to unveil breakthrough AI technologies aimed at improving computing resource utilization efficiency, targeting a significant increase from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70% [5][6] - This technology aims to unify resource management across various computing hardware, enhancing support for AI training and inference [6] Group 5 - Bitcoin has erased over 30% of its gains for the year, dropping below $93,714, following a decline in enthusiasm for the Trump administration's pro-cryptocurrency stance [7] - The price peaked at $126,251 on October 6, but subsequent market reactions led to a significant downturn [7] Group 6 - Multiple A-share companies have disclosed equity transfer matters, with Fudan Microelectronics announcing a transfer of 12.99% of its shares for 5.144 billion yuan, making the acquirer the largest shareholder [8][12] - Other companies, such as HeShun Petroleum and Chuangye Huikang, are also involved in significant equity transfers and control changes [8][12] Group 7 - The demand for energy storage has surged, increasing over 300%, driven by the dual carbon goals and the rising penetration of renewable energy [9] - The market has seen accelerated demand release following policy changes that removed mandatory storage requirements [9] Group 8 - Several companies are facing risks due to rapid stock price increases, with announcements from Pingtan Development and others warning of potential irrational speculation [10] - The stock of HeFu China is set to be suspended for review following a significant price surge [10] Group 9 - The solid-state battery sector has gained attention, but major players like CATL are still focusing on liquid batteries due to the high commercialization challenges of solid-state technology [11] Group 10 - The stock of Tianfu Communication is undergoing a share transfer process, with a significant portion of shares being transferred to meet funding needs [13] - The transfer is structured to ensure that the new investor has the capacity to manage the associated risks [13]

Core Insights - The modern service industry in Lianshui has shown a stable and positive development trend since the "14th Five-Year Plan," with steady expansion in total scale and continuous improvement in service supply capacity [1][7] Economic Growth and Service Industry Performance - The added value of the service industry in Lianshui has steadily increased from 25.356 billion to 34.725 billion by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 8.18% [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach 24.949 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, which has driven rapid revenue growth in the regulated service industry, with a projected revenue of 2.774 billion, up 25.7% year-on-year [2] Infrastructure and Market Dynamics - Lianshui's strategic location and integrated transportation network have effectively reduced operational costs and improved supply chain efficiency, fostering the development of modern commerce and service industries [3] - As of July 2025, the number of service enterprises in Lianshui reached 14,003, an increase of 115 from 2020, with significant growth in key sectors such as information transmission and technology services [3] Logistics and Financial Services - By the end of 2024, Lianshui established a comprehensive logistics service system with 4 county-level logistics centers and 366 village-level logistics points, achieving 100% coverage [4] - Financial services have been tailored to meet the needs of production service enterprises, with loans to the liquor industry reaching 354 million by June 2025, alleviating financial pressures [4] Quality of Life and Service Upgrades - Lianshui has successfully developed tourism attractions, enhancing visitor appeal and promoting cultural activities, which contribute to the local economy [6] - The elderly care services have been innovated to provide convenient dining and community support, with 20 mutual aid points and 5 community dining points established [6] Future Development Focus - Moving forward, Lianshui aims to leverage its geographical advantages and industrial foundation to enhance the digitalization, high-end, and integrated transformation of the service industry, continuously stimulating market vitality and development potential [7]