Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant decline in production, with China's crude steel output projected to drop to 96.1 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards quality and sustainability rather than sheer volume [1][5][7]. Group 1: Production Data - The World Steel Association forecasts global crude steel production to reach 1.8494 billion tons by 2025, while China's output is expected to be 961 million tons [1]. - China's crude steel production for 2024 is estimated at 1.005 billion tons, indicating a sharp decline of 44 million tons in just one year, which is more than the annual production of Germany [5][7]. - Despite the reduction, China maintains a 52% share of global steel production, significantly outpacing other countries like India and the United States [7][13]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The decline in production is attributed to proactive industry adjustments driven by policy changes, particularly under the "dual carbon" goals, which emphasize capacity and output control [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set clear guidelines to prohibit new capacity and promote the exit of outdated production facilities, particularly in regions like Hebei and Shanxi [9]. - The construction sector, a major consumer of steel, is facing a downturn, with a reported 18.14% drop in building steel sales from January to July 2025, leading to a noticeable demand gap [11]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The shift from quantity to quality is evident, with high-end steel products now accounting for a larger share of production, and companies like Shagang and CITIC Pacific Special Steel meeting both domestic and export demands [13]. - The adoption of electric arc furnaces is becoming a trend, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions, with regions like Sichuan achieving a 40% share of electric furnace steel production [15]. - Industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions is enhancing operational efficiency and cost savings, allowing for increased focus on research and development [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The reduction in crude steel output is viewed as a starting point for a transformation towards technological innovation and green low-carbon practices [17]. - Challenges such as limited scrap steel resources and high electricity costs for electric furnaces remain, but opportunities exist through government initiatives to boost infrastructure and manufacturing demand [17]. - The industry's evaluation criteria are shifting from production volume to technological advancement, environmental sustainability, and value chain collaboration, marking a new era for China's steel sector [19][21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the A-share cyclical sector, particularly the 中证现金流ETF大成 (159235), which has seen a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The 中证全指自由现金流指数, which the ETF tracks, focuses on companies with high free cash flow, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities, and has shown a strong upward trend, with a 2.02% increase [1][2] - The index's top ten weighted stocks include major companies such as 中国海油, 上汽集团, and 格力电器, which are positioned to benefit from the current cyclical recovery in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The index's focus on high cash flow companies is particularly relevant in the current cyclical environment, where sectors like oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics and rising product prices [2] - The recovery in domestic industrial production and infrastructure demand, along with low inventory levels, is providing strong upward momentum for the index, enhancing its performance [2] - The home appliance sector, which constitutes about 10% of the index, is also benefiting from increased domestic demand and improving conditions in the real estate sector, contributing to the overall resilience of the index [2] Group 3 - The analysis from 西部证券 indicates that during periods of economic downturn, there is a tendency for investors to flock to gold and stable cash flow assets, which has led to a reevaluation of cash flow strategies in the A-share market [3] - The shift from "involution" to "anti-involution" and the return of cross-border capital are expected to improve corporate free cash flow, making cash flow strategies more competitive compared to dividend strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decline in China's pig iron production, with a projected output of 60 million tons in December 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a cumulative production of 840 million tons for the year, down 3% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a significant downward trend in pig iron production in China [1]. - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research and strategic investment reports [1]. Group 2: Company Implications - The companies listed, including Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600808), and others, may face challenges due to the declining production trends in the pig iron sector [1]. - The report suggests that the industry may need to adapt its strategies in response to the projected decrease in production and market demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a projected decline in China's steel production in December 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while the cumulative production for the year is expected to grow by 3.1% to 1.45 billion tons [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's steel production is forecasted to be 120 million tons in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [1]. - The cumulative steel production in China for the year 2025 is projected to reach 1.45 billion tons, indicating a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the steel sector include Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019), Ansteel Co., Ltd. (000898), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600808), Shagang Group (002075), Shougang Group (000959), Baotou Steel (600010), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Hunan Valin Steel (000932), Hebei Iron & Steel (000709), and Nanjing Steel (600282) [1]. Group 3: Research Report - The report titled "Analysis of Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research on China's Steel Deep Processing Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing in-depth industry reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

2020-2025年中国粗钢产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,马钢股份（600808）,沙钢股份（002075）,首钢股 份（000959）,包钢股份（600010）,太钢不锈（000825）,华菱钢铁（000932）,河钢股份（000709）,八 一钢铁（600581） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国粗钢行业市场运行态势及发展趋势分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国粗钢产量为0.7亿吨，同比下降10.3%；2025年中国粗钢累计 产量为9.6亿吨，累计下降4.4%。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - The focus has shifted from "can emissions be reduced" to "how to achieve large-scale reductions at acceptable costs"[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 3.82 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - Five core constraints identified include technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on advanced technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - The rising interest rates are expected to increase the costs of wind and solar energy by approximately 30%[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In 2024, the aviation sector is expected to see a 10.4% increase in operational activity, contributing 1.108 billion tons of CO2 emissions, a 6.4% rise from the previous year[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aviation and aluminum will see significant increases[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The economic environment is characterized by rising interest rates and cost inflation, which elevate the economic feasibility threshold for low-carbon projects[15] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - The report suggests five strategic actions to promote large-scale transition: standardizing demand mechanisms, accelerating shared infrastructure construction, optimizing financing costs, prioritizing mature technology deployment, and enhancing policy and innovation collaboration[23]

在国家"双碳"战略目标引领下，钢铁工业的绿色低碳转型已成为行业发展的必然趋势。位于山东省寿光 市的鲁丽集团有限公司通过自主研发和升级改造，其HIsmelt熔融还原炼铁技术可直接熔炼铁矿粉及钢 厂废料，无需焦化、球团和烧结等污染严重的工序，具备原料适应性广、冶炼流程短、污染物排放量少 等特点，在环保效益、运营成本等方面较传统高炉工艺具有显著优势，开辟了钢铁工业绿色低碳转型的 新路径。 据了解，传统的长流程高炉炼铁工艺面临着资源、能源和环境的多重约束，尤其是对优质焦煤和块状炉 料的依赖，以及烧结、焦化环节的高污染排放，成为行业可持续发展的瓶颈。 鲁丽集团HIsmelt技术以其原料灵活、流程简短、环境友好、成本经济的突出特点，为钢铁行业特别是 为亟需绿色低碳转型的企业和缺乏焦煤资源及富含高磷矿资源的地区提供了一条切实可行的新路径。同 时，该技术对优化钢铁工艺结构、保障资源安全、推动绿色发展具有重要意义。 未来，鲁丽集团将以HIsmelt项目为基础进一步扩大该工艺的应用规模，计划研发年产200万吨以上的熔 融还原炼铁系统，致力于成为国内外熔融还原技术应用的标杆企业；联合上下游企业建立涵盖原料供 应、设备制造、技术服务 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate weakly and remain in a low - level consolidation [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Information - **Economic Data**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 739.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The profits of major industries in the machinery industry in 2025 showed growth, with the general equipment manufacturing industry growing by 4.2%, the special equipment manufacturing industry by 5.7%, the automotive manufacturing industry by 0.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the instrument manufacturing industry by 3.1% [2] - **Cost and Price**: On January 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,378 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan on January 27 was lowered by 20 yuan/ton to 2,930 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: The decline of finished products yesterday was mainly dragged down by the fall of coking coal at the raw material end. The fundamentals have not changed much, with the characteristics of weak supply and demand still existing, and the market driving force is not strong. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [3]