1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The policy signal of supply - side optimization brings positive long - term expectations for the supply - demand contradiction of PVC, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction remains prominent. The export volume may decline in the third quarter, and the anti - dumping tax decision in mid - July will affect future exports. The PVC inventory is lower than the same period in 23 - 24, and the pressure is limited. The short - term disk is strong, but the upward space should be viewed with caution [6]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side optimization expectation boosts market sentiment, and the price rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits stimulate high production. The downstream non - aluminum market is in the off - season, and the alumina purchase price adjustment has limited support for the caustic soda price. After the stimulus news, there is low - price speculative demand. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Methanol The port's inventory accumulation, Iranian device restart, and MTO device shutdown increase the port's inventory pressure and weaken the basis. The inland market is weak due to high production and the off - season of demand, but the increase in maintenance plans in July eases the supply pressure. Overall, the upward and downward space of methanol is limited, and interval operation is recommended [10]. LLDPE and PP PP and PE are in a state of supply contraction, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, driving inventory reduction. The weighted valuation has been repaired, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. In the short - term, attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [13]. Urea The urea disk is mainly driven by macro - policies. The anti - involution policy stimulates the commodity market, and the export collection and device maintenance support the price. However, weak industrial demand and unclear export quotas limit the upward space. It is necessary to track policy details, agricultural demand progress, and device maintenance dynamics. The disk needs export and downstream demand support to continue to rise [19]. Crude Oil Oil prices are oscillating weakly due to concerns about trade negotiations and OPEC+ supply decisions. The increase in US crude oil inventory further exacerbates supply pressure. The future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting and trade negotiation results. It is recommended to wait and see, with resistance levels for WTI at [66, 67], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [510, 520] [77]. Styrene The pure benzene market rebounds weakly, supported by crude oil and affected by the possible resumption of US ethane exports to China. High imports and production suppress the pure benzene price. The styrene market in East China is stable, with a strong basis before the end - of - month paper delivery. High - price transactions are limited. In the medium - term, high profits may lead to over - supply, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities [73]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but with the PXN repair, some device maintenance may be postponed. The PX drive is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, with the PX09 oscillating in the 6600 - 6900 range [81]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to weaken in July, and the basis has weakened. The absolute price is under pressure but supported by raw materials. It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct a rolling reverse spread for TA9 - 1 [81]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is increasing, and the supply - demand is turning to be loose. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for EG9 - 1 at high prices [81]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand is weak. The absolute price is supported by raw materials, and the processing fee has been repaired to a limited extent. PF should be operated similarly to PTA, and the processing fee can be expanded at a low level [81]. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve. The processing fee is bottoming out, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate PR similarly to PTA, conduct a positive spread for PR8 - 9 at low prices, and expand the processing fee at the lower limit of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.4% on July 3 compared to July 2, while the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. The export profit of PVC increased by 147.2% from June 19 to June 26. The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 2.4% from June 19 to June 26, but the export profit increased by 61.3% [2][3]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.2% from June 20 to June 27, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.1%. The profit of externally purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 2.2%, while the northwest integrated profit decreased by 20.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.5% from June 20 to June 27, while the operating rates of the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries decreased [5]. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume decreased by 2.9% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the total social inventory increased by 1.9% [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased on July 3 compared to July 2, with increases of 0.66% and 0.42% respectively. The MA91 spread decreased by 20.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 32.79% [10]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased, with increases of 3.14%, 0.47%, and 1.37% respectively [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.19%, the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate increased by 1.28%, and the formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 1.95% [10]. LLDPE and PP - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601 remained unchanged, L2509 decreased by 0.05%, PP2601 increased by 0.18%, and PP2509 increased by 0.03% on July 3 compared to July 2. The L2509 - 2601 spread decreased by 15.38%, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread decreased by 25.00% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.19%, the social inventory increased by 9.12%, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55%, and the PP trader inventory increased by 10.81% [13]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.95%, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.24%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 0.4%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 1.3% [13]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed different changes on July 3 compared to July 2. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 16.67%, the 05 - 09 contract spread increased by 17.24%, and the 09 - 01 contract spread decreased by 7.32% [15][16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 7.06%, and the port inventory increased by 14.70% on a weekly basis [19]. - **Production**: The domestic urea daily production remained unchanged, and the weekly production remained unchanged. The device maintenance loss increased by 12.53% on a weekly basis [19]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On July 4, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.45%, WTI increased by 0.19%, and SC increased by 0.66%. The Brent - WTI spread decreased by 7.22%, and the EFS decreased by 1.46% [77]. - **Product Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed slightly, and the spreads of different contracts also showed different changes [77]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of various refined oils decreased to different degrees on July 4 compared to July 3 [77]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: On July 3, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.4%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.9%, and the prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea pure benzene increased slightly [71]. - **Spot and Futures Price**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 0.1%, EB2508 increased by 0.5%, and EB2509 increased by 0.4%. The basis decreased by 14.4%, and the monthly spread increased by 6.2% [71]. - **Overseas Price and Import Profit**: The CFR China price of styrene increased by 0.7%, and the import profit decreased by 96.3% [72]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate decreased by 2.9%, the styrene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and the profits of different products showed different changes [73]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, and ABS all increased to different degrees [73]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: On July 3, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.4%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.9%, and the prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX changed slightly [81]. - **Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to different degrees, and the cash flows also changed [81]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products all decreased to different degrees [81]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 12.4%, and the arrival expectation increased by 141.9% [81].

尿素日报 | 2025-07-04 北方农需释放，尿素采购增加 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-03，尿素主力收盘1737元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 63元/吨（+12）；河南基差：63元/吨（+22）；江苏基差：73元/吨（+12）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（+10），出口利 润902元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-07-03，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-03，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 近期雨水天气增多，北方农需逐步释放，农业将进入夏季追肥旺季，下游采购量有所增加。临时停车增加，上游 开工率走低，产量有所下降。复合肥目前处于季节性淡季，开工率处于低位，秋季肥排产计 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...

【冠通研究】 上涨受阻 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。昨日期货翻红后，尿素现货成交 有好转，部分工厂上调报价，但成交量一般。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检 修与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，河南晋开近日也有检修计 划，日产波动幅度小，近日供给侧改革消息刺激市场对产能产量的担忧，对尿 素影响相对较小，但近期高温临检期间，日产可能有小幅减少。需求端，整体 需求弱稳，农需备货在收尾阶段，复合肥工厂开工负荷维持低位，继续去化库 存为主，目前处于秋季肥前期阶段，内需整体支撑有限。本期库存继续去化， 主要依然依赖于出口的快速集港。整体来看，昨日大宗商品均有不同程度的上 涨，盘面上涨后，现货端更近有限，需求不足，尿素价格上涨受阻，上方关注 1740 左右压力位。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.4%，持仓量 222192 手（-1691 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1541 手，空头-1993 手。其中，宏源期货净 多单增加 483 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the prices of single fertilizers are showing a strong upward trend, which is beneficial for compound fertilizer companies during the peak season, indicating a positive outlook for annual performance [1] - In Q2, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers increased compared to Q1, with urea at 1855 RMB/ton (+7.0%), diammonium phosphate at 4066 RMB/ton (+5.0%), monoammonium phosphate at 3364 RMB/ton (+6.4%), and potassium chloride at 2994 RMB/ton (+3.7%) [1] - The company has significant phosphate resources, with the Aju Luo Ga phosphate mine construction progressing smoothly, holding a total phosphate resource of approximately 549 million tons [1] Group 2 - The company’s Yingcheng base is set to produce 700,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, along with supporting production lines for 600,000 tons of water-soluble compound fertilizer, 400,000 tons of slow-release compound fertilizer, and 1.5 million tons of refined salt, with completion expected within the year [2] - The revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 22.51 billion, 24.99 billion, and 28.06 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 11.0%, and 12.3% respectively [2] - The net profit forecast for the same period is expected to be 1 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.63 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.9%, 27.9%, and 26.9% respectively, leading to a corresponding PE ratio of 12, 9, and 7 times [2]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-03 农需旺季启动，尿素小幅反弹 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-02，尿素主力收盘1739元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：51 元/吨（-18）；河南基差：41元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：61元/吨（-18）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+0），出口利润901 元/吨（+10）。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-02，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-02，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 农需旺季即将来临，北方农需旺季启动，下游采购量 ...

Production Capacity and Distribution - The company has a total compound fertilizer production capacity of 7.55 million tons, with an additional 1.3 million tons under construction [2][3] - The production bases are strategically located across various regions in China and Malaysia, including Hubei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang [2][3] - The company has nearly 6,000 primary distributors and over 100,000 retail outlets nationwide, with ongoing expansion into Southeast Asian markets [2][3] New Fertilizer Demand and Development - The new fertilizer segment is becoming a key growth driver, supported by agricultural green transformation and policy backing [3][4] - The company is developing 1.3 million tons of new fertilizer capacity in Hubei and Shandong, expected to enhance production scale and profit margins [3][4] - Recent innovations include new products such as water-soluble monoammonium phosphate and high-concentration liquid potassium-phosphorus fertilizers [3][4] Phosphate Fertilizer Composition and Profitability - The phosphate fertilizer products mainly consist of fertilizer-grade and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, with the latter entirely sold externally [4] - The company’s phosphate fertilizer business is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand in agriculture, fire safety, and new energy materials [4] Phosphate Mining Progress and Impact - The company owns three phosphate mines in Sichuan, with ongoing construction of a 2.9 million tons/year mining project [5] - The mining projects aim to ensure stable raw material supply and reduce production costs, enhancing market competitiveness [5] Synthetic Ammonia Project Development - The company is constructing a 700,000 tons synthetic ammonia project, which is expected to meet nitrogen fertilizer raw material needs and lower overall costs [5] - The project will also expand production capacity and optimize the industrial structure, providing strong support for sustainable development [5]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 6 | 元至 | 1721 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格稳 | | | | | 定在 | 1780 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 12489 | 手至 | 17.79 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 11313 | 手至 | 19.43 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a price increase due to the signing of large contracts and a shortage of supply, with domestic prices approaching earlier highs in 2023 [1] Price Trends - As of late June, the benchmark ex-factory price for domestic salt lake potassium chloride (60% KCl) is 2700 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous month, nearing the year's high points from February and March [1] - The market price for potassium fertilizer in Laos has also risen, reaching approximately 3150 CNY per ton by the end of June, which is an increase of over 150 CNY per ton prior to the signing of large contracts [1] - Some distributors are quoting prices as high as 3350 CNY per ton, matching the year's peak [1]

Market Overview and Quotes Review - On June 30, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1,712 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,727 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, and the open interest was 224,000 lots [2]. - The latest price of the urea 2508 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest of 850 lots, an increase of 29 lots, and a trading volume of 224 lots. The latest price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,712 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.64%, with an open interest of 223,700 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots, and a trading volume of 218,328 lots [5]. - The overall price of urea in major regions remained stable. The representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,830 yuan/ton, Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,700 yuan/ton, Ruixing Group in East China at 1,770 yuan/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,780 yuan/ton [5]. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Overseas: India's RCF issued a urea import tender plan with a procurement target of 2 million tons, with 1 million tons allocated to each of the east and west coasts. The tender will open on July 7, be valid until July 17, and the final shipping deadline is set for August 22 [8]. - Policy: To promote the export self - discipline of circulation enterprises, the industry association coordinated to add a port legal inspection link, which is implemented by three state - owned enterprises: China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sinochem Fertilizer, and China National Chemical Construction. It supplements the origin legal inspection system [10]. - Demand: The end of the Israel - Palestine conflict led to the消退 of its market impact, and the international urea price significantly回调. However, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and India's new tender, it supported the domestic market sentiment. Domestically, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots market was resistant to high - priced goods. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises declined from the high level, and their raw material procurement willingness was weak [10]. - Supply: The operating rate and daily output of the urea industry reached peak values in recent years, and the inventory showed small fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine in industrial demand continued to decline, and the agricultural demand expectation weakened again. The oversupply pattern in the urea market was still significant [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - India's large - scale tender will boost the market sentiment in the short term, and domestic policies guide self - disciplined exports. With the decline of international urea prices, weak domestic industrial and agricultural demand, and continuous high supply, the oversupply pattern in the urea market is significant. The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent, and export profit is the key variable. It is expected that the domestic urea price will face upward pressure in the short term and may continue to operate weakly [8].