随着港股市场进入春节假期前的最后交易时间段，"持股还是持币"成为当前投资者最核心的 抉择。 近日，多家券商研究所陆续发布关于春节行情的研判观点。根据证券时报记者梳理，多数券商机 构建议持股，主要因港股市场春节效应明显，市场情绪偏向乐观。 港股节前"日历效应"明显 港股市场和A股市场类似，在春节前后往往呈现一定的"日历效应"。近期，已有多家券商机构对 港股市场春节前后的市场表现进行了复盘。 机构数据显示，春节前恒生指数上涨的概率偏高。据广发证券策略团队分析历史数据，基于2010 至2025年恒生指数春节窗口的历史表现，节前最后三个交易日（T—3至T区间），指数上行概率 为82%。春节后一个月的交易窗口内，从均值曲线看，整体维持震荡上行，但这一均值上行更可 能由少数年份的较大涨幅贡献所驱动，使得节后上涨概率回落至约60%。 A股春季躁动一般是春节后至两会期间，背后的原因在于投资者出于规避春节假期间不确定性的 考虑而降低的仓位，节后可能回流；同时两会前夕往往是改革、宽松政策等预期比较高涨的时 期。 然而，春节后至两会的典型窗口并不天然适配港股，港股在春节后并未有明显的日历效应。对 此，广发证券策略团队表示，逻辑上看 ...

3． 禁止性规定 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 来源：董秘百人会 导读 核心要点：2026年2月6日，中国证监会发布《关于境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币的监管指引》 （证监会公告〔2026〕1号，以下简称"1号文"），作为八部门《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关 风险的通知》（以下简称《通知》）的配套文件，首次为现实世界资产（RWA）代币化的合规路径提 供了明确监管框架。核心方向可概括为"境内严禁、境外严管、合规备案、风险可控"。 一、指引核心定位与适用范围 1． 定义与边界 《指引》明确界定了境内资产境外发行资产支持证券代币：以境内资产或相关资产权利（所有权、收益 权等）为基础，在境外使用分布式账本等技术发行具有类资产证券化属性的代币，本质是跨境资产证券 化的数字化形态，区别于无底层资产的虚拟货币。 2． 监管分工与适用场景 | 业务类型 | 监管主体 | 核心要求 | | --- | --- | --- | | 类资产证券化 RWA（核心适用） | 中国证监会 | 需向证监会备案，遵循相同业务相同规则 | | 外债形式 RWA | 发改委 + 外汇局 | 按外债管理规定审批 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the ChinaBond New Composite Index rose 0.08% throughout the week; short - term and medium - long - term pure bond funds rose 0.01% respectively; the CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the SSE Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index rose 0.03% respectively [2]. - As of February 6, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 4.075 billion yuan in the past week, with interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs having net inflows of 1.745 billion yuan, net outflows of 6.72 billion yuan, and net inflows of 0.9 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Overall, the net values of various types of bond ETF products generally rose last week. As of February 6, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed well, rising 0.74% for the week [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Flow - As of February 6, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 4.075 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net inflows of 1.745 billion yuan, net outflows of 6.72 billion yuan, and net inflows of 0.9 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 3.274 billion yuan, 0.016 billion yuan, and 0.283 billion yuan respectively, while market - making credit bonds had a net outflow of 2.384 billion yuan, and sci - tech innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.908 billion yuan. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs have had cumulative net inflows of 53.805 billion yuan, 459.605 billion yuan, and 33.807 billion yuan respectively, totaling 547.217 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Net Value Performance - Overall, the net values of various types of bond ETF products generally rose last week. As of February 6, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed well, rising 0.74% for the week; the Treasury Bond ETF Huaxia rose 0.23%, and the Policy Financial Bond ETF rose 0.22%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF fell 0.02% and 0.12% respectively last week [5]. 3.3 Performance of Credit Bond ETFs and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - As of February 6, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0148 and 1.0026 respectively, rising 0.02% and 0.01% for the week. Among credit bond ETFs, the Credit Bond ETF Boshi performed relatively well, rising 0.03% for the week. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng and the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Yongying performed relatively well. As of February 6, 2026, the median discount rate of credit bond ETFs was 16BP, and that of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs was 17BP [6]. 3.4 Duration Tracking of Credit - type ETFs - As of February 6, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.31 years, 1.90 years, and 2.08 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.57 years and 2.74 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index were 3.28 years, 3.18 years, and 3.14 years respectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The election results in Japan are expected to facilitate the implementation of "responsible active fiscal policies" under Prime Minister Kishida, potentially leading to a weaker yen and impacting global markets, including gold [2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the election, the Nikkei average index opened significantly higher, reflecting market optimism regarding Kishida's policies, with a 19% increase compared to the index level before Kishida's election as party president [4]. - The Nikkei futures index rose sharply, with a 4% increase on February 7, indicating strong market sentiment [6]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Policies - Analysts predict that Kishida's administration will likely push for yen depreciation, with the yen trading at approximately 157.20 yen per dollar, a decline of about 5 yen from previous highs [6]. - The increase in ruling party seats is expected to reduce pressure for excessive fiscal expansion from opposition parties, potentially alleviating long-term interest rate pressures [8]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The election outcome may influence global gold market trends, as concerns over fiscal expansion could lead to accelerated selling of Japanese government bonds, prompting a shift of safe-haven investments towards gold [8]. - Market analysts suggest that if Japanese bonds are sold off, there could be significant upward movement in gold prices during trading sessions [8].

上证综指-1.27%,深证成指-2.11%,创业板指-3.28%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：渤海租赁（+16.85%）、华林证券（+11.41%）、亚联 发展（+6.79%）、拉卡拉（+3.99%）、中银证券（+3.16%）； 2026年 02月 07 日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报(2026年第五期) 2026 中小券商聚焦差异化发展, 行业分化新格局 市场表现: 本期（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）非银（申万）指数-0.60%，行业排20/31、券商Ⅱ指数 -0.65%,保险II指数-0.71%; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：长江证券（-8.08%）、华安证券（-7.55%）、越秀资本 (-5.57%）、广发证券（-5.34%）、财通证券（-4.73%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块下跌 0.65%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.68pct,跑赢上证综 指数 0.62pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.36 倍。 近期,兴业证券、东吴证券、浙商证券、中原证券等数十家中小券商密集召开年 度工作会议,行业已形成高度共识:2026年 ...

2月9日，中银证券涨0.43%，截至发稿，报14.10元/股，成交7.07亿元，换手率1.81%，总市值391.70亿 元。中银证券股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅5.46%。 资料显示，中银国际证券股份有限公司位于上海市浦东新区银城中路200号中银大厦,北京市西城区西单 北大街110号7层，成立日期2002年2月28日，上市日期2020年2月26日，公司主营业务涉及投资银行业 务、证券经纪业务、资产管理业务、证券自营业务、私募股权投资业务、期货业务和其他业务。主营业 务收入构成为：证券经纪业务64.12%，资产管理业务16.46%，投资银行业务6.48%，期货业务5.60%， 证券自营业务4.30%，其他1.74%，私募股权投资业务1.30%。 国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）成立日期2016年7月26日，最新规模570.29亿。今年以来亏损 2.3%，同类排名5342/5580；近一年收益7.36%，同类排名4014/4290；成立以来收益18.46%。 国泰中证全指证券公司ETF（512880）基金经理为艾小军。 截至发稿，艾小军累计任职时间12年31天，现任基金资产总规模1889.36亿元 ...

目前港股 IPO 排队企业达 414 家，市场对 2026 年港股 IPO 预期高度一致，普遍认为其上市规模将再创新高、结构持续分化，港股有望延续 2025 年全球 IPO 募资冠军的态势，稳居全球资本市场最活跃板块。 繁荣背后，"强者恒强、弱者分化" 将成为核心趋势。澳洲会计师公会梁祐庭指出，2026 年港股 IPO 将呈现 "两头大、中间分化" 特征：大型项目、行业龙 头及具备国际可比性的企业，将获长线资金与基石投资者青睐，发行定价及上市后流动性更稳定；中小体量企业则更依赖行业景气度与自身盈利兑现能 力，估值分化将进一步加大，港股 IPO 市场正从 "规模竞争" 转向 "质量竞争"，优质资产将获更高估值溢价。 此外，国际企业赴港上市成为新亮点。414 家排队企业中，有 11 家来自中国内地以外，覆盖泰国、印尼、新加坡、迪拜等国家和地区。 多家头部机构给出乐观预测：普华永道预计 2026 年港股将有 150 家企业成功上市，募资额达 3200-3500 亿港元；德勤预测募资额至少 3000 亿港元，其中 7 只新股募资超 100 亿港元；华泰证券则表示，募资规模中枢将达 3300 亿港元，较 2025 年提 ...

2026年2月7日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 全球大类资产波动剧烈,A 股有望率先恢复上行 报告摘要 核心观点: | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱:liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书: S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱: pangc@avicsec.com | | | 杨子萌 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书:S0640124060008 | | | 联系电话: | | 邮箱：yangzm ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 每经记者|曾子建 每经编辑|袁东 预期太一致了，反而有点慌。 马上就要过春节了，A股休市一周多，港股也要放几天假。 到底持股过节，还是持币过节？这是个问题。 目前，机构的观点几乎是清一色地喊"持股过节"。因为从多年经验来看，春节的"日历效应"还是很强。 统计显示，春节后股市上涨的概率超过七成，所以如果持币过节，意味着节后可能会追高建仓。 短期来看，似乎确实没有什么好担心的。 但有一个非常重要的问题，千万不要忽视。春节期间，港股通渠道是关闭的。如果你是通过港股通渠道 买的港股，那么春节也是无法交易的，相当于跟着A股一起放假。因此，如果你做好持股还是持币的决 定了，那么本周五就是最后一天了。 （欢迎关注微信公众号：港股第一眼） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 不管A股还是港股，前期都短线 ...

Group 1: Macro Background and Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is experiencing sustained improvement, with a focus on oil price variables. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% and 3.2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts [7][5] - The ACC's global chemical production index remained flat in December, with a slight increase of 0.3% in the Asia-Pacific region, while North America and Europe saw declines of 0.8% [7] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity. The petrochemical sector faces significant risks due to a lack of energy cost competitiveness [7][5] Group 2: Pre-prepared Food Industry - The National Health Commission released a draft national standard for pre-prepared food, defining its scope, shelf life, nutritional quality, packaging, and additive use, marking a significant milestone for industry standardization [10][11] - The standard prohibits the use of preservatives and aims to minimize food additives, with a maximum shelf life of 12 months for products [11] - The introduction of these standards is expected to enhance consumer trust and promote the growth of the pre-prepared food sector, particularly benefiting leading companies with strong production and supply chain management capabilities [13][12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25% at 4065 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also declined [21][22] - The consumer sector outperformed other styles, with an average daily trading volume of 23.88 billion yuan, down from 30.365 billion yuan previously [6] - The energy sector, particularly oil and gas extraction, saw a notable increase of 4.28%, while sectors like tourism and retail experienced declines [23][25]