每经AI快讯，12月25日，截至午盘，上证指数涨0.29%，深证成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.38%，北证50 涨1.04%。全市场成交额12119亿元，较上日成交额放量527亿元。 板块题材上，造纸、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、能源金属调整。 盘面上，造纸板块走强，恒达新材（301469）20CM涨停封板，博汇纸业（600966）、宜宾纸业 （600793）、五洲特纸（605007）涨停封板。商业航天全线爆发，广联航空（300900）20CM涨停封 板，神剑股份（002361）、上海港湾（605598）、中天火箭（003009）、江顺科技（001400）等数十只 个股涨停封板。贵金属板块走弱，招金黄金（000506）、湖南白银（002716）跌超4%。能源金属板块 调整，天齐锂业（002466）、盛新锂能（002240）、融捷股份（002192）跌超4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货持平，报 4505.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 1.04%，报 71.88 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.16%报 6088 元/克，沪银 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月25日，早盘贵金属板块震荡走弱，浩通科技、贵研铂业、盛达资源、白银有色、国 城矿业均跌超5%，湖南黄金、山东黄金、西部黄金等跟跌。 ...

摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成 看跌收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金 价涨势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成看跌 收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金价涨 势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 美国国债收益率几无变动，交易员观望。黄金突破4500美元非孤立现象，避险需求等支撑涨势。目前市 场缺乏利空催化剂，买方主导。分析师认为，央行购金步伐放缓是涨势唯一威胁，若维持当前水平，预 计2026年底金价达5000美元。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至12月20日当周，季调后初请失业金人数录得21.4万人，环比减少1万 人，连续两周下降且低于市场预期的22.4万人，四周移动平均值同步降至21.675万人，短期新裁员压力 有所缓解。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金白盘先涨后跌，于4500关口震荡。晚盘因明日停盘，或震荡收尾，4小时现墓碑线，短期难续单边 行情，预计 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant surge recently, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4,525 per ounce, spot silver surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time, and spot platinum breaking $2,300 per ounce [1] - Following the sharp increase, there was a collective pullback in precious metals, with spot gold dropping to $4,448 per ounce, spot silver to $70.1 per ounce, and spot palladium to $1,676 per ounce [1] - Analysts attribute the recent surge in precious metals to a combination of expectations for liquidity easing, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - Affected stocks in the A-share market saw declines, with Guoyan Platinum down 5.76%, Yinxing Nonferrous down 5.26%, and Shengda Resources down 4.62% [2] - Other notable declines included Guocheng Mining down 4.56%, CITIC Metal down 3.70%, and Hunan Silver down 3.56% [2] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for some companies, with Shengda Resources up 147.97% and Yinxing Nonferrous up 100.72% [2]

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a significant surge in prices, driven by geopolitical risks, ongoing global supply shortages, and strong investment demand, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time in history [1] - The recent strength in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts in December, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased the likelihood of rate cuts in January [1] - Central banks' continued large-scale purchases of gold provide a solid foundation for the current bull market, with global gold ETF holdings increasing every month this year, except for May, and the largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) seeing its holdings grow by over 20% this year [1] Group 2 - The silver LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) has seen a surge, with a price increase leading to a premium close to 70%, attracting market attention for arbitrage opportunities [2] - Investors can take advantage of the price difference between the LOF's market price and its net asset value by purchasing at net value and selling at the higher market price, although this strategy carries inherent risks [2] - The high premium and price increase have led to a spillover effect, causing multiple commodity LOF products to hit their price limits, indicating strong market interest [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with sectors like consumer electronics, power equipment, semiconductors, and aerospace performing well, while precious metals, insurance, commercial retail, and food and beverage sectors lagged [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark due to factors such as funding disturbances, policy expectations, and fluctuations in overseas liquidity [1] - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities in the market, with an emphasis on monitoring macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and domestic policy developments [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is projected to maintain a slow bull market through 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in the economic fundamentals [2] - The market is expected to shift from valuation enhancement to performance improvement, providing sustained upward momentum for valuations [2] - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in the bull market narrative and focus on selecting stocks based on industry growth and economic conditions, rather than being distracted by short-term fluctuations [2]