2025年11月宏观经济数据 冠通期货研究咨询部 日期 2025年12月15日 宏观数据 2025年12月15日，国家统计局公布11月宏观经济数据。总的来看，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战 。下阶段，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会、中央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩 大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食 播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1% ...

Group 1 - The market is closely watching the upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, with a potential increase to 0.75% marking a significant shift from the low-cost yen funding era [1][3] - Historical trends show a clear correlation between yen exchange rate changes and Bitcoin prices, with a stronger yen typically indicating rising global funding costs and tightening liquidity, which tends to pressure Bitcoin as a high liquidity-sensitive asset [1][3] - The long-standing low interest rate environment in Japan has provided stable "funding currency" for global capital; an increase in rates may reduce the attractiveness of borrowing yen for high-risk asset allocation, potentially leading to reduced leverage or position adjustments in the stock market, which could impact crypto assets [1][4] Group 2 - The current strong yen is already imposing certain constraints on market sentiment [1][3] - The recent interest rate hike may not replicate past shock patterns, as market expectations have already been reflected in positioning, limiting the potential for panic selling in the short term [4] - The U.S. monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, mitigating some of the tightening effects from Japan, and the probability of severe risk clearing before year-end is relatively controlled, although Bitcoin cannot completely ignore external rate shocks [2][4] - Future market dynamics will require close monitoring of fiscal and inflation expectations against a backdrop of high debt; any doubts about long-term stability could enhance the interlinkages between exchange rates, bond yields, and risk assets, significantly affecting crypto market volatility [2][4]

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are up, with Dow futures rising by 0.40%, S&P 500 futures by 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.44% [1] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with spot gold at $4344 per ounce, up 0.99%, and spot silver at $63.79 per ounce, up 2.88% [2] - SpaceX is reportedly selecting investment banks for its initial public offering (IPO), aiming to raise over $30 billion, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion [3] - Tesla has begun testing its Robotaxi service without safety drivers in Austin, Texas [4] Group 2 - The European Commission is expected to withdraw the ban on new internal combustion engine vehicles starting in 2035, leading to pre-market stock increases for Stellantis (up 1.7%), Ford (up 0.07%), and General Motors (up 0.42%) [5] - Elon Musk has publicly criticized nuclear fusion power, suggesting that building small fusion reactors on Earth is impractical, while proposing a plan to deploy solar energy AI satellites [6] - JetBlue Airways has reported a near-collision incident involving a U.S. military aircraft, resulting in a pre-market decline of 0.40% for the airline [7] - NVIDIA is hosting a closed-door summit in California to address the power shortage issues facing data centers, which could hinder AI development [8] Group 3 - Several companies, including Allergan, Ferrovia, Insmed, Monolithic Power Systems, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital, will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index [9]

全国首创的"科汇通"试点业务，打通了深港科创关键脉络。 在工作日的清晨，从香港科学园出发，乘坐跨境直通巴士越过深圳河，35分钟即可抵达香港科学园深圳 分园。这一"点对点"的高效通勤，已成为河套深港科技创新合作区"过河者"的日常。 人员跨境往来效率大幅提升的同时，资金跨境流动的创新突破同样亮眼。全国首创的"科汇通"试点业 务，成功破解境外非企业主体资金入境的制度梗阻，以"几天办结"的高效流程、灵活的币种选择和优惠 的手续费率，为科研资金跨境调拨打通了便捷通道。 作为粤港澳大湾区唯一以科技创新为主题的重大合作平台，自2023年8月国务院印发《河套深港科技创 新合作区深圳园区发展规划》（下称《河套发展规划》）以来，短短两年多时间，河套深港科技创新合 作区凭借"一区两园"的跨境优势，率先实现多项金融创新突破，让资金跨境流动愈发通畅，也让科技与 金融融合更加深入。 "科汇通"从试点走向全国 科技创新，资金先行。 河套深港科技创新合作区作为深港跨境合作的前沿阵地，曾面临非企业科研机构境外汇入科研资金无据 可依、调拨不便的难题。为打通科研资金跨境流动"堵点"，落实《河套发展规划》中关于"创新科研相 关资金跨境流动监管"的专 ...

繁忙一周日程满档。 延迟发布的美国经济数据将验证美联储降息决策是否正确。 股市抛售未动摇VIX指数稳定态势。 《时代》周刊：终极逆向指标？ 资金大迁徙重返美国493。 新一周伊始，上周后半段美国科技股抛售后，股市期货预示高开，风险偏好趋稳。欧美期货今日料将高开，金价则在本周初强势上扬。周 一早盘金价每盎司上涨逾40美元，逼近历史新高。临近年末，黄金基本面依然强劲：央行需求持续旺盛，黄金ETF持仓量攀升，投资者在 本周美国经济数据洪流来临前争相涌入黄金市场。因此，DLSMARKETS认为年内金价或将再创纪录。 繁忙周期的完整日程 本周焦点集中于经济数据，包括延迟发布的美国数据洪流及今年最后一批央行决议。英国经济连续第二个月萎缩后，市场已将英国央行下 周降息概率定价为87%。英国还将适逢圣诞假期前夕发布CPI及劳动力市场数据。美国数据日程同样密集，包括周二公布的11月非农就业数 据、10月零售销售数据以及11月CPI读数。更值得关注的是欧洲央行与日本央行的利率决议。市场预期欧洲央行将维持利率不变并暗示将进 入较长时间的暂停加息周期，而日本央行则可能加息25个基点至0.75%，开启其缓慢的货币政策正常化进程。 延迟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the philanthropic efforts of Guangdong entrepreneurs, particularly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on their contributions to the city of Shuangyashan in Heilongjiang Province, and the strategic partnerships formed between local businesses and Guangdong companies [5][11][24]. Group 1: Philanthropic Contributions - Shenzhen Qianhai Zhifu Financial Holdings Group and Foshan International Trade Co., Ltd. donated 2 million yuan and 1 million yuan respectively to Shuangyashan for local public welfare and charity projects [5][18]. - During the pandemic, Ma Shaofeng from Shenzhen Zhifu purchased 3000 N95 masks and 10,000 KF94 masks worth 120,000 yuan for Shuangyashan's epidemic prevention efforts [5][18]. - Baoneng Investment Group made three rounds of donations to Shuangyashan, totaling over 1 million yuan, including 10,000 medical masks valued at nearly 260,000 yuan and 5,000 KN95 masks worth 525,000 yuan [5][18][24]. Group 2: Logistics and Coordination - The Shuangyashan Business Bureau and the Shuangyashan Pearl River Delta Cooperation Service Center coordinated the logistics for mask delivery, overcoming various challenges such as temperature differences and road closures, ensuring timely arrival [7][20]. - Ma Xingquan, a local entrepreneur and representative, played a crucial role in facilitating communication and coordination between Guangdong companies and Shuangyashan for mask procurement [7][22]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - In May 2021, Baoneng and the Shuangyashan government established a high-level strategic partnership to develop a large food industry park focusing on deep processing of soybeans and corn [11][24]. - Baoneng aims to leverage its industrial advantages and Shuangyashan's resources to promote comprehensive development and contribute to the revitalization of Heilongjiang Province [11][24]. Group 4: Labor Mobility Initiatives - Ma Xingquan organized labor mobility initiatives, sending workers from Shuangyashan to Shenzhen for better employment opportunities, addressing the challenges of industrial transformation and labor surplus in the region [11][24][25]. - In 2017, the first batch of 53 workers from Shuangyashan was sent to Shenzhen, with local government support highlighting the importance of connecting local labor with opportunities in major cities [11][24].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, breaking the 7.05 yuan mark for the first time in 14 months, driven by a weak dollar and stable year-end settlement demand [1][3][10]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore Yuan Performance - As of December 15, the onshore yuan was reported at 7.0488 yuan per US dollar, an increase of 66 basis points from the previous close, with an intraday high of 7.0470 yuan [1]. - The offshore yuan also showed an upward trend, reaching 7.04725 yuan per US dollar, up 63 basis points from the previous close, with a peak of 7.04525 yuan [3]. - The yuan's performance throughout the year has been characterized by a steady increase, with onshore and offshore rates rising by 3.43% and 3.96% respectively [10]. Group 2: Central Bank and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China reported a slight decrease in the yuan's central parity rate against the dollar, set at 7.0656 yuan, down 18 basis points [5]. - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, reporting a decline of 0.02% to 98.38 [8]. - Analysts suggest that the yuan's strength is supported by a weak dollar and stable settlement demand, indicating a potential for continued moderate appreciation under stable exchange rate policies [10].

12月5日，深圳市住房公积金管理委员会发布新版《深圳市住房公积金提取管理规定》（简 称"提取新规"），今日起提取新规正式施行。 记者注意到， 提取新规主要在购房、租房、老旧住房更新改造三方面， 新增多项提取情形， 放宽提取条件，包括支持公积金 "既提又贷" 等。 深圳住房公积金中心的数据显示，截至今年9月28日，深圳住房公积金归集资金累计破1万亿 元，开户职工突破2000万人。其中，深圳全市公积金提取总额达6000亿元，其中住房消费类 提取占比超87%；深圳全市租房提取额超2600亿元。 记者丨曹媛 编辑丨孙超逸 购房类提取：新增多项情形，支持"异地购房还贷提取" 例如，职工在2021年1月5日购买住房，则可在2026年1月5日前，申请办理购房提取。住 房消费情形发生时间以相关收据、发票和税票等凭证开具时间为准。 另外， 提 取新规新增购房税款提取。 职工及家庭成员在深圳购买首套或第二套住房，可申请 提取住房公积金，用于支付契税等购房税款。适用条件为：在深圳购买首套/二套住房，且税 票时间未超过5年；提取额度不超过实际缴纳税款金额；提取次数是1次； 新增异地购房还贷提取。 此次，提取新规将购房还贷提取范围从深 ...

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, indicating a shift in focus from "demand insufficiency" to a more precise diagnosis of economic challenges[4] - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, providing a foundation for market confidence during the transition period[4] Policy Framework - The policy framework aims for a balance between short-term growth stabilization and long-term structural reforms, utilizing a "cross-cycle" systemic approach[4] - Fiscal policy will maintain a deficit rate of around 4.0% in 2026 to counteract downward pressures in real estate and local government finances[7] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing nominal GDP growth and improving corporate credit fundamentals, with a flexible approach to tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[9] Key Tasks - The meeting outlined eight key tasks, focusing on nurturing new growth drivers and resolving existing risks[11] - A "rural and urban resident income increase plan" will be implemented to boost consumption and stabilize the income of a large flexible employment group[12] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and optimizing special bond usage to counteract declining fixed asset investment growth, which recorded a -0.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters[13] Innovation and Reform - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in major urban areas aims to enhance regional development and innovation ecosystems[14] - The meeting stressed the need to reduce institutional transaction costs and credit costs, addressing "involution" competition and promoting a unified market[15] Risk Management - The meeting proposed a dual approach to real estate risk management, focusing on "de-stocking" and controlling new supply while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing[16] - Local government debt management will adopt a comprehensive and categorized approach to mitigate operational debt risks, indicating a shift towards more refined debt management strategies[16] Conclusion - The 2026 Chinese credit market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by marginal improvements, structural differentiation, and orderly risk clearance under a supportive macro policy environment[17]

Core Insights - Since 2024, Jiangxi Province's Market Supervision Administration has integrated quality and finance, establishing a financing credit enhancement system covering quality, standards, brands, and patents [1] - As of now, a total of 19.209 billion yuan in quality financing credit enhancement loans have been issued, benefiting 1,697 enterprises, with small and micro enterprises accounting for 91.99% [1] - In October 2025, a joint initiative by four departments will launch the "Gan Quality Loan" financial product, which will create a three-tier financing credit enhancement system based on 43 elements [1] - The product will implement differentiated credit based on enterprise quality credit ratings, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan [1] - Systematic assessments will quantify the quality advantages of enterprises, providing a scientific basis for financial institutions to lend accurately [1]