有色金属日报 2025-5-21 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中国如预期下调 LPR 利率报价，美元指数延续偏弱，地缘局势升温引起贵金属和原油价格走强，铜价 下探后回升，昨日伦铜收涨 0.4%至 9554 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78140 元/吨。产业层面，昨 日 LME 库存减少 3575 至 170750 吨，注销仓单比例抬升至 38.9%，Cash/3M 升水 ...

其他有色金属也同样如此。作为不锈钢和纯电动汽车（EV）电池材料的镍在4月上旬经历了急 跌，但目前价格仍高于年初水平，表现稳健。 2025年预计铜会出现供应过剩（REUTERS） 由于对中美贸易摩擦的警惕感减退，近期市场开始出现重新买入铜、镍等有色金属的动向。 然而市场普遍预测2025年供应过剩的幅度将扩大。有预测显示，2025年铜供应过剩28.9万 吨，镍供应过剩19.8万吨，锌…… 由于对中美贸易摩擦的警惕感减退，近期市场开始出现重新买入铜、镍等有色金属的动向。 然而关于2025年的供需情况，市场普遍预测供应过剩的幅度将扩大，这被视为影响市场行情 的因素。 有色金属市场因美国总统特朗普的言行持续波动。作为铜的国际指标，伦敦金属交易所 （LME）3个月期货在4月上旬因特朗普宣布对等关税而急跌至每吨近8000美元。随后，把快 速降价视为良机的投资者纷纷买入，价格上升趋势明显。 中美两国政府于5月12日达成协议，把互相征收的附加关税降低115%。中美贸易摩擦加剧导 致中国经济放缓的担忧减退。中国占到全球铜消费的约6成，市场更易出现买入潮。目前铜价 已回升到每吨9500美元附近，接近对等关税公布前的水平。 锌矿的产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, the macro - economic situation is complex with concerns such as high tariffs and weakening economic data in the US. Industry - specific factors like raw material supply, inventory levels, and demand also impact metal prices. Some metals face upward price pressure due to supply disruptions, while others may decline due to oversupply or weak demand [1][3][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper prices rose 0.81% to $9516/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78160 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 38.8%. In China, social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spot in Shanghai shifted to a premium over futures. The short - term upward space of copper prices may be limited due to factors such as weak macro - sentiment and weakening price support [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell 1.95% to $2436/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20040 yuan/ton. LME registered warrants increased, putting pressure on prices. The total inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased at a slower pace. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunity of aluminum [3]. Lead - The SHFE lead index fell 0.09% to 16871 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks on May 12, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. The medium - term SHFE lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong oscillation [4]. Zinc - The SHFE zinc index fell 0.42% to 22285 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term sentiment of commodities improved. A Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to stop production in June, which may boost zinc prices sentimentally. However, there is still a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to factors such as increasing inventory [6]. Tin - On May 19, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.04%. The supply side of tin is currently tight but is expected to loosen. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may move down [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. The cost side of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.24%. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the market may run weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as mine operations and inventory changes [11]. Alumina - On May 19, the alumina index rose 8.1% to 3123 yuan/ton. Due to continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12965 yuan/ton on Friday. The cost support is enhanced, but terminal procurement is still cautious. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to raw material trends and inventory changes [15].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic equity market weakened, and the growth of US retail sales slowed down. Precious metal prices stabilized, and copper prices rebounded after a decline. Aluminum prices oscillated and corrected. The short - term upward trend of copper prices is difficult, and the rebound height of aluminum prices is restricted. Lead prices show a strong short - term oscillation. Zinc prices rebounded slightly. Tin supply is expected to loosen, and if demand remains weak, the price center may shift down. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish view. Lithium carbonate prices face pressure, and the disk may continue to test the industry's acceptance. Alumina supply has disturbances, and a long - short strategy is recommended. Stainless steel prices rose, but the long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season cycle [1][3][4][6][9][10][12][14][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper rose slightly by 0.08% to $9600/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,490 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 77,800 - 79,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and $9500 - 9700/ton for LME copper [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by nearly 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 61,000 tons [1]. - **Market situation**: The spot in Shanghai turned to a premium over futures, and the demand in Guangdong was weak. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained at about 250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,220 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 20,100 - 20,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and $2460 - 2520/ton for LME aluminum [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons to 397,275 tons [3]. - **Market situation**: The spot in East China was at a premium over futures, and the overall destocking speed was fast, but the demand improvement may face challenges [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.20% to 16,971 yuan/ton, and LME lead rose to $1984.5/ton. It is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 56,000 tons, and the SHFE lead inventory was 49,400 tons [4]. - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate port inventory increased, the production of primary lead enterprises was high, and the production of recycled lead enterprises decreased [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.49% to 22,494 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $2755/ton. Zinc prices rebounded slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 86,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts remained at a low level [6]. - **Market situation**: The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the processing fee rose, and the Russian Longxin lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices [6]. Tin - **Price**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 265,210 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The expected price range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for domestic contracts and $30,000 - 33,000/ton for LME tin [8][9]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 16 tons to 8163 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2745 tons [8]. - **Market situation**: The mine supply is expected to loosen, and the restocking willingness of the electronics and home appliance industries is low due to tariffs [9]. Nickel - **Price**: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125,230 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and LME nickel closed at $15,805/ton, up 0.03%. The expected price range is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and $15,000 - 16,300/ton for LME nickel [10]. - **Market situation**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the demand for high - nickel pig iron weakened, and the price of nickel continued to be bearish [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index was flat at 64,727 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 64,120 yuan, down 1.66%. The expected price range is 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory increased by 351 tons to 131,920 tons, and the production remained high with great inventory pressure [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 1.56% to 2987 yuan/ton. The expected price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10,500 tons to 193,300 tons [14]. - **Market situation**: The supply is disturbed, and a long - short strategy is recommended [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,995 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The profit of steel mills improved, but the downstream demand did not increase substantially [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1.1083 million tons [16].

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to influence market dynamics positively [8][14]. - The steel sector has experienced a three-year adjustment period, leading to a favorable cost-performance ratio at current levels. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks, with domestic demand pricing becoming more relevant due to high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The average price for rebar is 3,296 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8% [15][18][37]. - The overall steel price index has seen a minor decline of 0.71%, with cold-rolled steel prices dropping by 1.33% [37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, with a reported fee of -43.5 USD per thousand tons, indicating a challenging environment for copper producers [17]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. The COMEX gold price reached 3,329.1 USD per ounce, a 2.52% increase week-on-week [17]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in March 2025 reached 71,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.53%. The price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 65,700 CNY per ton [16][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 低库存给予铜铝支撑 核心观点 沪铜 沪铜主力期价昨日夜盘冲高，站上 7.8 万关口，今日早盘跳水， 日内震荡运行。美联储 5 月议息会议落地，整体偏鹰派，利空铜价。 短期铜价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压力。短期可持续关注 7.8 万 关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正套。消息面上，关注中美在瑞会 议，若中美贸易摩擦趋于缓和，将在宏观氛围和终端需求上利好铜 价。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with sectors like non-ferrous metals, insurance, liquor, and semiconductors rising, while oil, electricity, and home appliances sectors declined [1] Sector Summaries Insurance - Major companies include China Pacific Insurance (market cap: 292.65 billion), Ping An Insurance (market cap: 321.07 billion), and China Life Insurance (market cap: 925.08 billion) with trading volumes of 8.47 million, 19.92 million, and 5.97 million respectively [3] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 0.57 (+1.91%), Ping An by 0.09 (+0.18%), and China Life by 0.20 (+2.83%) [3] Liquor Industry - Key players are Kweichow Moutai (market cap: 1947.36 billion), Shanxi Fenjiu (market cap: 249.29 billion), and Wuliangye (market cap: 502.63 billion) with trading volumes of 28.39 million, 8.70 million, and 18.89 million respectively [3] - Kweichow Moutai increased by 3.20 (+0.21%), Shanxi Fenjiu by 0.24 (+0.12%), and Wuliangye by 0.79 (+0.61%) [3] Semiconductor - Notable companies include North Huachuang (market cap: 244.42 billion), Cambricon Technologies (market cap: 295.23 billion), and Haiguang Information (market cap: 348.67 billion) with trading volumes of 18.49 million, 39.07 million, and 18.70 million respectively [3] - North Huachuang rose by 3.62 (+0.51%), Cambricon by 1.41 (+0.95%), and Haiguang by 6.61 (+1.47%) [3] Oil Industry - Major firms are Sinopec (market cap: 684.03 billion), PetroChina (market cap: 227.63 billion), and COSCO Shipping (market cap: 1456.85 billion) with trading volumes of 9.73 million, 5.80 million, and 11.59 million respectively [3] - Sinopec increased by 0.20 (+1.39%), while PetroChina and COSCO Shipping saw slight declines [3] Coal Industry - Key companies include China Shenhua (market cap: 186.24 billion), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical (market cap: 761.96 billion), and CATL (market cap: 1019.96 billion) with trading volumes of 8.12 million, 45.91 million, and 6.62 million respectively [3] - China Shenhua rose by 0.05 (+0.13%), Shaanxi Coal by 0.04 (+0.21%), and CATL by 0.13 (+0.06%) [3] Electricity Industry - Important players are China Yangtze Power (market cap: 713.98 billion), China Nuclear Power (market cap: 191.08 billion), and Long江电力 (market cap: 331.34 billion) with trading volumes of 24.27 million, 6.20 million, and 68.68 million respectively [4] - China Yangtze Power decreased by 0.32 (-1.08%), while the other two companies saw slight increases [4] Food and Beverage - Major companies include Citic Securities (market cap: 378.07 billion), Guotai Junan (market cap: 232.32 billion), and Haitian Flavoring (market cap: 304.47 billion) with trading volumes of 20.86 million, 9.80 million, and 4.73 million respectively [4] - Citic Securities rose by 0.43 (+1.71%), Guotai Junan by 0.04 (+0.23%), while Haitian Flavoring decreased by 0.14 (-0.33%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Key players are Industrial Fulian (market cap: 325.33 billion), Luxshare Precision (market cap: 373.55 billion), and Heng Rui Medicine (market cap: 230.54 billion) with trading volumes of 19.72 million, 18.50 million, and 43.26 million respectively [4] - Industrial Fulian decreased by 0.10 (-0.20%), while Luxshare and Heng Rui saw increases [4] Home Appliances - Notable companies include Gree Electric (market cap: 254.70 billion), Haier Smart Home (market cap: 235.70 billion), and Muyuan Foods (market cap: 216.98 billion) with trading volumes of 17.84 million, 9.91 million, and 10.41 million respectively [4] - Gree Electric decreased by 0.09 (-0.20%), while Haier and Muyuan saw slight increases [4] Logistics Industry - Key firms are Mindray Medical (market cap: 267.03 billion), Wanhua Chemical (market cap: 218.48 billion), and Guofeng Holdings (market cap: 172.87 billion) with trading volumes of 9.47 million, 13.83 million, and 14.65 million respectively [4] - Mindray Medical rose by 0.28 (+0.64%), while Wanhua and Guofeng saw slight increases [4] Communication Services - Major companies include China Unicom (market cap: 171.33 billion) and China Construction (market cap: 228.50 billion) with trading volumes of 25.07 million and 9.22 million respectively [4] - China Unicom increased by 0.02 (+0.36%), while China Construction rose by 0.30 (+1.72%) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals. The market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory changes, and macro - economic factors. Some metals show short - term fluctuations and long - term trends, with both upward and downward risks [2][4][7][8]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.92% to $9455/ton, and SHFE copper main contract reached 77770 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1825 to 203425 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.3 million tons. - Market: Domestic copper spot import had a small loss, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. Short - term copper prices may be volatile, and the impact of US tariffs on market sentiment should be noted [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.68% to $2459/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract reached 19955 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 42.4 million tons, and domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 1.5 to 65.8 million tons. - Market: The short - term trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum prices are supported by strong demand in the peak season, and there is an opportunity for the inter - month spread to widen [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.13% to 16930 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1938/ton. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 3.83 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 27.71 million tons. - Market: Lead supply is generally loose, demand is stable, and short - term lead prices show a strong - side shock [7]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.52% to 22536 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2666/ton. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.36 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 8.58 million tons. - Market: The medium - term bearish scenario remains. Zinc supply is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates [8]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract reached 259520 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts were 8977 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 20 to 2810 tons. - Market: Mine supply is gradually recovering, which suppresses tin prices, but domestic demand is strong, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Nickel - Price: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125880 yuan/ton, up 0.58%, and LME nickel closed at $15880/ton, up 1.96%. - Market: The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. Stainless steel mills' raw material procurement is light, and nickel prices are expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: MMLC was reported at 69,028 yuan, and LC2507 contract closed at 68,300 yuan, down 0.99%. - Inventory: Domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.8%, and inventory increment narrowed to 0.2%. - Market: High inventory and approaching off - season make it difficult to reduce inventory. Prices are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [13]. Alumina - Price: Alumina index rose 0.7% to 2864 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts were 28.04 million tons, down 0.21 million tons. - Market: The supply surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15][16]. Stainless Steel - Price: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12780 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. - Inventory: Futures inventory was 170965 tons, down 2205, and social inventory decreased by 0.78%. - Market: Raw material prices are stable, and the price is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [18].