1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and the total supply is shrinking. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a slight destocking trend, with the bonded warehouse destocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with the semi - steel tire's capacity utilization increasing slightly and the full - steel tire's decreasing slightly. It is expected that the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will run weakly and steadily. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 15,850 - 16,500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are 176,097 hands and 49,072 hands respectively, down 5,119 hands and 5,134 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are - 44,112 and - 9,365 respectively, down 631 and 341 respectively. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 110,470 tons and 55,843 tons respectively, up 600 tons and 504 tons respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,945 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 355 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,080 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 465 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.62%, down 2.9 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.56%, up 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.8 days, up 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 48.53 days, up 0.61 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.63%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.92%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.92%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2]

证券之星消息，1月27日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌0.16%，黑猫股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4139.9，上涨0.18%。深证成指报收于14329.91，上涨0.09%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300731 | 科创新源 | 62.84 | 4.82% | 13.67万 | 8.38亿 | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 59.52 | 0.81% | 19.03万 | 11.32亿 | | 300587 | 天铁科技 | 6.37 | 0.47% | 32.55万 | 2.04亿 | | 300767 | 震安科技 | 20.40 | 0.34% | 7.61万 | 1.53亿 | | 920225 | 利通科技 | 33.09 | 0.27% | 2.79万 | 9061.14万 | | 920665 | 科强股份 | 15.10 | -0.20% | 4.61万 | 6837.27万 | | 001325 | 元创股份 | 51.85 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global natural rubber market is entering a critical phase with the onset of the production halt in major regions, while the domestic tire industry is gearing up for a key operational season post-Spring Festival, leading to a short-term price influence driven by industrial attributes and macroeconomic factors [1][2] - In the short term, the natural rubber market is expected to be influenced by industrial attributes due to the seasonal production halt in Q1, with a significant focus on downstream operational performance and the petrochemical chain's economic conditions after the Spring Festival [2] - Long-term trends indicate that natural rubber prices have confirmed a long-term turning point since the new production season began in May 2023, with the market poised for a new cycle driven by the impending AI technology revolution [2][3] Group 2 - The 2026 market outlook suggests that short-term price increases in synthetic rubber will elevate valuations, while long-term supply bottlenecks are expected to emerge, making prices more likely to rise than fall [3] - The petrochemical chain's price increases are anticipated to catalyze valuation improvements, with tight supply conditions expected to support synthetic rubber prices, thereby boosting natural rubber demand [3] - The long-term supply constraints are becoming evident, with expectations that global natural rubber supply will enter a reduction cycle over the next decade due to production limitations [3]

2026年行情展望：短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌 逻辑一：石化链涨价提供估值催化。短期丁二烯产能停车降负，供应偏紧，中期石化链景气有地缘冲突 和反内卷政策支撑，年内合成橡胶价格有望筑底回升，进而提振天然橡胶需求。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，天然橡胶Q1全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是 国内轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响大，核心关注春节后的 下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。长期看，天然橡胶价格自2023年5月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期 拐点，同时下游正处AI技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。2026年短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产 能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌。该行核心推荐海南橡胶(601118.SH)。 国信证券主要观点如下： 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导 天然橡胶产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽车工业高度绑定。 另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天然橡胶估值。综合来看，三重属性决定了天然 橡胶框架和行情的复杂性，长短期驱动因素、跟踪指标均有差异。 (1)一年维度来看 ...

南华期货：后市预计合成橡胶维持偏强震荡 目前丁二烯抬价，利润空间扩大，氧化脱氢工艺毛利转正，或驱动部分装置重启节奏加快；丁二烯出口 空间随内盘走高而缩窄，供应紧张有所缓解；但短期顺丁橡胶提产仍受限。在国内宏观利好下顺丁橡胶 需求预期不弱，且下游轮胎产能海外扩张有望带动国内产量通过出口消化以减轻供应压力。后市预计合 成橡胶维持偏强震荡，但需警惕外部局势变化带来的风险，比如美伊局势升级或反转、突发关税等。 瑞达期货（002961）：br2603合约短线建议暂以观望为主 近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，现货端流通资源充足导致下游采购持续压价，出货压力及 生产利润明显承压影响，本周部分生产企业库存仍增长，而套利资源价格优势显现，下游低价采购有所 跟进，贸易企业库存下降，预计短期生产企业库存及贸易企业库存变动有限。需求方面，上周国内轮胎 企业产能利用率涨跌互现，半钢胎部分企业外贸订单支撑，装置排产小幅提升，其他多数企业排产维持 稳定。全钢胎出货压力加大，部分企业存适度控产现象，拖拽产能利用率小幅走低，预计短期轮胎企业 产能利用率稳中偏弱运行。br2603合约短线建议暂以观望为主。 1月27日盘中，合成橡胶期货主 ...

| Comm | | 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | | | | | | | 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 | | | 数据来源:Wind 钢联数据库 | | | | | 現値 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | | | RU主力 | 16230 | 16315 | -85 | | | 国内 | NR主力 | 13085 | 13095 | -10 | | 期货盘面 | | BR主力 | 13265 | 12930 | +335 | | | 外盘 | Tocom RSS3(日元/千克) | 347.0 | 352. 6 | -5.6 | | | | Sicom TF(美分/千克) | 186. 5 | 186. 5 | 0.0 | | | | RU2605-RU2601 | -70 | -95 | +25 | | | | RU2701-RU2609 | 685 | 680 | + રે | | | 跨期价差 | NR主力-次主力 | -40 | -30 | -10 | | | | B ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-27 青岛港口库存小幅回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16230元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨；NR主力合约13085元/吨，较前一日变动-10 元/吨；BR主力合约13265元/吨，较前一日变动+335元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15150元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1945美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1875 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。浙江 传化BR9000市场价12900元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨，同比增长 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者叶青 北京报道 1月27日国内橡胶期货市场呈现分化走势，天然橡胶期货小幅偏弱震荡，合成橡胶期货则延续近期强势 格局。天然橡胶主力2605合约报收于16195元/吨，跌幅0.37%。合成橡胶2603合约，收报13515元/吨， 较前日结算价上涨225元/吨，涨幅1.69%。据悉，自1月以来合成橡胶期货累计涨幅17%，而天然橡胶期 货涨幅仅有3%。 据隆众资讯数据，截至1月22日中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为73.84%，环比+1.31%，同比+8.92%； 中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为62.53%，环比-0.49%，同比+22.14%。对此，魏宇表示，从供应层面 来说，上游逢高出货，从成交情况来看供应相对充足。下游则维持逢低采购为主，总量上来说并没有出 现超预期的大量补库行为，但春节前季节性的备货仍对现货形成了一定支撑。 机构研报显示，需求方面，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，半钢胎部分企业外贸订单支撑，装 置排产小幅提升，其他多数企业排产维持稳定。全钢胎出货压力加大，部分企业存适度控产现象，拖拽 产能利用率小幅走低，预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率稳中偏弱运行。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 昨日丁二烯橡胶期货价格延续前期涨势，其中主力合约BR2603下午收盘涨幅达3.59%。 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 目前尚无新的信息推动丁二烯橡胶上涨，依然是上游原料价格的强势支撑叠加资金对于化工板块的青 睐，共同推动丁二烯橡胶期货价格继续上行。在丁二烯价格坚挺格局下，今天顺丁橡胶现货价格部分继 续调涨。据隆众资讯了解，昨日顺丁橡胶现货端多数封盘，少数报盘重心继续上移动。目前顺丁橡胶生 产亏损，导致本月度周期结算价格预期较高。 后期基本面来看，上游原料价格强势下，顺丁橡胶生产亏损的持续或将使得后期民营装置的开工率继续 下降，供应压力有减缓预期，但顺丁橡胶装置国营占比依然较高，高供应现状或难以扭转。下游半钢胎 订单小幅改善，但需求延续淡季特征，需求端支撑较为有限，顺丁橡胶自身供需矛盾不突出。主要跟随 上游丁二烯价格呈现偏强运行。丁二烯目前因海外装置检修带来港口库存高位回落，国内装置的检修也 带来丁二烯开工率高位回落，叠加下游需求的支撑，预计丁二烯价格短期延续偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Monday, the natural rubber price declined slightly while the synthetic rubber remained strong. With domestic rubber-producing areas in a dormant period and Thailand's northeastern region expected to stop tapping in January, and the southern region in peak season, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, China, has been accumulating. The short - term supply elasticity has weakened, and raw rubber prices are relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. With the recent strong performance of the chemical sector, the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Futures Market - RU主力: The previous day's closing price was 16,230, a decrease of 85 (-0.52%) from the price two days ago. The trading volume was 309,950, and the open interest was 13,265, an increase of 335 [2] - NR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,085, a decrease of 10 (-0.08%) from the price two days ago. The trading volume was 76,014, and the open interest was 54,206, a decrease of 5,672 [2] - BR主力: The previous day's closing price was 13,265, an increase of 335 (2.59%) from the price two days ago. The trading volume was 747,469, and the open interest was - 35,722, an increase of 10 [2] Spread - RU - NR: The current spread was 3,145, a decrease of 75 compared to the previous value [2] - RU - BR: The current spread was 2,965, a decrease of 420 compared to the previous value [2] - NR - BR: The current spread was - 180, a decrease of 345 compared to the previous value [2] Basis - RU基差: The current value was - 230, an increase compared to the previous value of - 315 [2] - 混合 - RU: The current value was - 1,355, an increase compared to the previous value of - 1,440 [2] - 烟片 - RU: The current value was 2,320, an increase compared to the previous value of 2,235 [2] Spot Market - All types of spot natural rubber in different regions (such as whole milk in Shandong, Shanghai, Kunming; smoked sheets in Shandong, Shanghai; mixed rubber in Qingdao, Yunnan) and downstream products (Thai smoked sheets, Thai cup rubber, Thai latex) showed no price changes, with a 0.00% change rate [2]