Group 1 - China's economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, showcasing strong resilience and a bright outlook for the future [1] - In the first three quarters, the GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year, respectively [1] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first three quarters, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year [1] - The scale of foreign trade reached a historical high, with import and export growth rates gradually recovering, and foreign exchange reserves maintained above $3.3 trillion [1] Group 2 - The optimization of China's economic structure and the transition of growth drivers are progressing steadily, with significant advancements in high-quality development [2] - In the first three quarters, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% respectively, indicating a clear trend of industrial upgrading [2] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14% year-on-year, with emerging industries like lithium-ion battery manufacturing and new energy vehicles showing rapid growth [2] Group 3 - China's strong resilience is fundamental to its ability to cope with uncertainties and achieve stable long-term growth [3] - The first three quarters of stable growth laid a solid foundation, while new productive forces are being cultivated to create new growth points [3] - The macro policy space remains ample, providing continuous support for the economy, with positive factors accumulating as indicated by leading indicators and high-frequency data [3]

2025 年 12 月 02 日 固定收益研究团队 制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观 ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业 PMI为 49.2% （前值为 49.0%，下同），环比提升 0.2pct；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（50.1%）， 环比下降 0.6pct；综合 PMI 为 49.7%（50.0%），环比下降 0.3pct。 11 月 PMI 数据关注点 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（49.0%），环比提升 0.2pct，同比下降 1.1pct，制造业 景气水平小幅回升，生产活动较 10 月有所修复。 出口改善拉动生产修复，制造业景气水平小幅回升，但仍处收缩区间。制造业 整体景气度在国际局势缓和及政策支持下逐步企稳回升，但整体回升幅度不大， 且已连续 8 个月位于收缩区间。中美达成缓和协议后，11 月 ...

奋进群像 "腰部力量"活力尽显，今年前三季度增速均领跑全省 审视今年前三季度四川21市（州）地区生产总值排位，内江、眉山、自贡、遂宁GDP集中在1400亿元至1500 亿元的区间内，它们拥有同一个"2000亿元梦想"。 2025年收官在即，四川经济版图的"黄金腰部"发力冲刺——内江、眉山、自贡、遂宁四地今年的经济发展目 标均剑指2000亿元以上；前三季度地区生产总值均已超1400亿元，距离年度目标均不到600亿元。 若四市集体"撞线"，四川将首次迎来4个市（州）同时跨入"2000亿元俱乐部"的历史性场面，"五区共兴"的发 展蓝图加速成为现实。 站在2000亿元门口的四市，如何冲刺？ 今年初，内眉自遂四市不约而同地将年度经济总量目标锚定在同一个刻度：跨越2000亿元大关。 内江地区生产总值近年来已跨越多个百亿级台阶，2024年GDP达1942.57亿元。根据其"十四五"规划中"总量 突破2000亿元大关"的既定目标和2025年6.0%以上的增长目标，跨越2000亿元堪称"临门一脚"，势在必行。 省社科院研究员盛毅分析，一年之内新增4个GDP2000亿元城市，四川未有先例。原纪录是2018年，德阳、宜 宾、南充三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement with synchronized recovery in production and demand and accelerated destocking, but the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may still restrict corporate profit repair, and the sustainability of external demand contribution remains to be verified. The decline in service - sector sentiment indicates that the resilience of domestic demand also needs to be observed. The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month, still seasonally weak but with marginal improvement. Production, procurement, and import indices on the supply - side increased, and new order and backlog order indices on the demand - side rose. Inventory destocking accelerated, and some predictive indicators showed improved supply - demand relationships [5][9]. - **External demand contribution**: The new export order index rose 1.7 pct to 47.6%, and the new export order indices of four major manufacturing industries and large, medium, and small enterprises all increased. However, the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may pressure corporate profit repair [9]. - **Enterprise size and industry differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprises' sentiment improved, especially small enterprises which rose 2 pct to a nearly 6 - month high of 49.1%, while large enterprises' sentiment declined 0.6 pct to 49.3%. High - tech manufacturing with a high proportion of small and medium - sized enterprises remained in expansion, while the sentiment of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing declined, and their production sides may be stronger than the demand sides [9]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November 2025, down 0.6 pct from the previous month, the first time below the boom - bust line since 2023. The service - sector sentiment was dragged down by factors such as the fading holiday effect, while the construction industry's sentiment improved [5][9]. - **Sub - item structure**: The inventory and new order indices of non - manufacturing declined, while the new export order index rose. The sales price and input price indices increased for two consecutive months. In the service sector, the financial industry and some new - energy industries showed good performance. The construction industry's business activity index increased, possibly boosted by financial activities and policy support [9]. Investment Suggestion The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2][9].

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

来源：招商宏观静思录 报告发布时间：2025年11月30日 事件 11月制造业PMI录得49.2，环比提高0.2；服务业PMI录得49.5，环比下滑0.7。建筑业PMI录得49.6，环 比提升0.5。综合PMI产出指数录得49.7，环比下降0.3。 核心观点 制造业PMI分项 - 2025-11 PMI -- 2025-10 55 PMI:从业人员 PMI:采购量 -· 2024-11 50 = PMI:产成品库存 PMI:生产 45 40 PMI:生产经营活动预 PM:原材料库存 35 期 30 PMI:新订单 PMI:新出口订单 PMI:在手订单 PMI:进口 PMI:供货商配送时间 PMI:出厂价格 PMI:主要原材料购进 价格 资料来源:Wind、招商证券 图 3:制造业主要行业的 PMI 变化趋势 中国:PMI:高技术制造业 ·中国:PM:装备制造业 中国:PMI:消费品行业 中国:PMI:基础原材料行业 54.00 52.00 50.00 48.00 46.00 44.00 42.00 11月制造业、建筑业PMI小幅回升，但依然位于荣枯线下方，特别是建筑业处在近五年同期最低水平， 另外11月服务消 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, aligning with market expectations[1] - The manufacturing new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, driven by the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies[2] - The manufacturing production index rebounded to 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to non-contraction territory[3] Economic Factors - The recent "anti-involution" policies have led to a rise in raw material prices, with the main raw material price index increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%[4] - The production expectations index for manufacturing improved by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers[5] - The construction PMI rose to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, supported by the completion of 500 billion new policy financial tools[7] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, marking the first entry into contraction territory for the year[6] - The service sector's decline is attributed to weakened consumer demand and significant adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall macroeconomic environment remains stable but shows signs of weakness, with the comprehensive PMI output index falling below the equilibrium line for the first time this year[8] - Projections indicate a potential decline in the manufacturing PMI to around 49.1% in December, influenced by external trade pressures and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) showed significant improvement, with their PMIs rising to 49.1% and 48.9%, respectively, while large enterprises saw a decline to 49.3% [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, demonstrating sustained growth in this sector [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 53.6%, while the factory price index rose to 48.2%, indicating a supportive environment for market prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [3] - The procurement willingness index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a positive shift in purchasing behavior among enterprises [3] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.6%, showing signs of recovery, although it remains below the threshold of expansion [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, highlighting pressure on demand and insufficient recovery momentum [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are realized [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, rising by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, with the production index reaching the critical point [1] - The new export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April of this year, reflecting strong resilience in exports [1] Group 2: Business Confidence and Expectations - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, indicating heightened confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - Large enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 48.9% and 49.1%, up 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively, with small enterprises reaching a six-month high [2] - High-tech manufacturing maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors saw declines [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory - In November, the purchasing price index and factory price index were 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month [3] - The procurement willingness improved, with the procurement volume index at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, while raw material inventory index remained stable at 47.3% [3] - The construction sector showed signs of steady recovery, with the business activity index at 49.6%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and new orders index rising to 46.1% [3] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return below the prosperity line [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, reflecting insufficient recovery in market demand [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policy benefits are released [4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month [1] - The overall economic sentiment in China remains stable, with improvements in both production and demand in the manufacturing sector [1] - Small enterprises have shown a significant recovery in PMI, while high-tech manufacturing continues to expand [2] Manufacturing Sector - The production index and new orders index for November are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - New export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the second highest point since April of this year, indicating strong resilience in exports [1] - The manufacturing production and operational expectations index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1%, suggesting enhanced confidence among manufacturers [2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from last month, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs are 48.9% and 49.1%, showing increases of 0.2 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively [2] - The recovery in PMI is primarily driven by medium and small enterprises, with small enterprises reaching a six-month high [2] Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, indicating sustained growth [2] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 49.8% and 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [2] - High-energy-consuming industries' PMI increased by 1.1 percentage points to 48.4%, indicating a low-level recovery [2] Price Trends - The purchasing price index and factory price index for November are 53.6% and 48.2%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month [3] - The procurement willingness of enterprises improved, with the procurement volume index rising to 49.5% [3] - The construction industry shows a steady recovery, with the business activity index at 49.6%, a slight increase from last month [3] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the critical line [4] - The new orders index for the service sector dropped to 45.6%, reflecting insufficient recovery in market demand [4] - Despite short-term demand disruptions, the service sector's confidence remains supported, with expectations for recovery as policies are implemented [4] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the manufacturing PMI will stabilize and potentially improve in December, driven by year-end demand [5] - The overall economic sentiment will largely depend on the effectiveness and timing of growth-stabilizing policies [5]