2025年基金四季报1月22日披露完毕。 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年年底，全市场公募基金资产净值（含估算基金）合计超过37.64万亿 元，规模续创历史新高。主动权益基金前十大重仓股分别为中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、 紫金矿业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 2025年四季度，尽管A股市场整体呈现震荡态势，但是指数基金规模的持续增长为A股市场带来源源不 断的增量资金。权益类基金整体维持较高仓位，部分基金在四季度继续加仓。 从仓位分布看，据兴业证券统计，主动权益基金2025年四季度末的仓位虽然比三季度末下降，但仍处于 历史第二高水平。 分行业看，据国信证券统计，在2025年四季报披露的持仓中，主动权益基金加仓居前的三个行业为有色 金属、基础化工、非银金融，分别加仓1.22、1.13、0.81个百分点；计算机、传媒、国防军工行业减仓 居前，分别减仓1.34、0.98、0.75个百分点。 去年四季度，基金加仓大周期板块，权重仅次于科技类板块。 多位基金经理表示，展望2026年，对资本市场整体环境保持相对乐观判断。基金经理对科技产业与大周 期板块的配置仍有分歧。 鹏华基金基金经 ...

去年四季度，基金加仓大周期板块，权重仅次于科技类板块。 证券时报记者 吴琦 2025年基金四季报1月22日披露完毕。 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年年底，全市场公募基金资产净值（含估算基金）合计超过37.64万亿元，规模续创 历史新高。主动权益基金前十大重仓股分别为中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿业、阿里巴巴- W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 2025年四季度，尽管A股市场整体呈现震荡态势，但是指数基金规模的持续增长为A股市场带来源源不断的增量资 金。权益类基金整体维持较高仓位，部分基金在四季度继续加仓。 从仓位分布看，据兴业证券统计，主动权益基金2025年四季度末的仓位虽然比三季度末下降，但仍处于历史第二 高水平。 分行业看，据国信证券统计，在2025年四季报披露的持仓中，主动权益基金加仓居前的三个行业为有色金属、基 础化工、非银金融，分别加仓1.22、1.13、0.81个百分点；计算机、传媒、国防军工行业减仓居前，分别减仓 1.34、0.98、0.75个百分点。 多位基金经理表示，展望2026年，对资本市场整体环境保持相对乐观判断。基金经理对科技产业与大周期板块的 配置仍有分 ...

Group 1 - The scale of passive funds continues to rise while active funds decrease, with passive funds reaching 5.48 trillion and active funds dropping to 3.97 trillion [8][10] - The average position of various types of funds has decreased, with active equity funds averaging 87.8% [12] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds has increased, with the top 20, 50, and 100 stocks accounting for 34.12%, 48.24%, and 60.73% respectively [14] Group 2 - Active equity funds are focusing on cyclical sectors, AI, and non-bank financials, with significant increases in positions in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil & gas [3][36] - The active funds have increased their holdings in non-bank financials, particularly in the insurance sector, benefiting from the current interest rate environment [37] - The active funds have reduced their positions in TMT, healthcare, consumer services, and new energy sectors [21][27] Group 3 - Passive funds have seen a significant increase in holdings in communication, non-ferrous metals, and banks, while decreasing in electronics, power equipment, and biomedicine [44][45] - The proportion of holdings in the main board has increased for passive funds, while the shares in the ChiNext and STAR Market have decreased [40] - The relative over-allocation of passive funds compared to active funds has increased in sectors such as banking and media [45] Group 4 - The allocation of active funds to Hong Kong stocks has significantly decreased, with the total value of Hong Kong stocks held dropping from 19.26% to 16.23% of total holdings [48] - The number of Hong Kong stocks held by active funds has decreased from 376 to 361 [48] - The top holdings of active funds include Tencent, Alibaba, and SMIC, with notable changes in their respective share values [52]

市场情绪较上月持续回升（本月55.33，上月50.69；分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷），从"中性"区间进一步 向"偏积极"区间靠拢：两融分数创近期新高，杠杆资金入市积极性显著提升；公募基金发行分数变化不大，保 持历史较高水平，中长期资金入市意愿平稳；涨跌停分数从历史中低位回升至历史中位；波动率仍处于历史低 位。 截至2026年1月20日，中泰资管风险系统对股债市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为60.35，较上月54.89有较为明显的回升。市场整体风险偏好进一步向积 极区间修复，估值、预期、情绪三大核心维度指标协同改善，市场运行态势更趋稳健。 沪深300估值较上月略有回升（本月65.54，上月61.54），处于近一年高位区间。行业间估值分化依然持续，28 个申万一级行业中，化工、钢铁、电子、房地产、商业贸易、综合、国防军工、计算机、通信、汽车、机械设 备等行业估值仍高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、食品饮料和非银金融板块估值持续低于历史10%分位数。 市场预期分数较上月明显上升（本月60.00，上月50.00）。2025年四季度GDP增速继续下移，主要是在出口保 持较快增长的同时，国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1740.66 points, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 37.125 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.46% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - On the day, 31 constituent stocks rose, with North New Building Materials leading with a 4.99% increase, while 17 stocks fell, with Shanjin International leading the decline at 2.07% [1] - The index's top ten constituent stocks include: - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) with a weight of 9.45%, closing at 4.40 yuan, down 1.35% [1] - Wuliangye Yibin (sz000858) with a weight of 9.34%, closing at 102.76 yuan, down 0.28% [1] - Hikvision (sz002415) with a weight of 7.48%, closing at 32.09 yuan, down 1.56% [1] - XCMG Machinery (sz000425) with a weight of 6.90%, closing at 10.86 yuan, down 1.54% [1] - Weichai Power (sz000338) with a weight of 6.24%, closing at 22.36 yuan, down 0.89% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the index's constituent stocks totaled 872 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.149 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Yuexiu Capital (000987) with a main fund net inflow of 107 million yuan, but retail outflows of 54.4 million yuan [2] - Huazhong Steel (000932) with a main fund net inflow of 85.6 million yuan, but retail outflows of 33.9 million yuan [2] - Yun Aluminum (000807) with a main fund net inflow of 54.8 million yuan, but retail outflows of 68.3 million yuan [2]

在贵金属价格持续攀升的背景下，有色金属行业成为港股市场最耀眼的板块。紫金矿业此前发布的业绩 预告显示，公司预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为510亿—520亿元，同比增长约59%— 62%；扣非净利润475亿—485亿元，同比增长约50%—53%。 紫金黄金国际预计2025年度实现归属于母公司股东净利润约15亿—16亿美元，与上年同期相比将增加约 10.2亿—11.2亿美元，同比增加约212%—233%。 赤峰黄金预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30亿—32亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加约 12.36亿—14.36亿元，同比增加约70%—81%。 洛阳钼业的业绩预告显示，预计2025年度实现归属净利润为200亿元到208亿元，同比增长47.8%到 53.71%。 有色金属行业公司业绩攀升，主要受金属价格走高影响。比如，紫金黄金国际明确表示，矿产金产量增 加，良好的市场及并购因素，使得公司2025年业绩实现大增。2025年，公司矿产金产量同比增加至约 46.5吨，而2024年度约38.9吨（不含波格拉金矿产量）。2025年，矿产金销售价格同比上涨，加上2025 年度完成并购的两个在产金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic adjustments made by prominent fund managers at E Fund in their investment portfolios for Q4 2025, focusing on sectors like AI, healthcare, consumer goods, and technology [2][4][6][10] Group 2 - Zhang Kun adjusted the structure of investments in the healthcare, consumer, and technology sectors while maintaining a stable position in top holdings, which include Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, and Alibaba-W [4][5] - Zhang Kun expressed confidence in the improvement of living standards and social security in China over the next decade, suggesting a narrowing gap with developed countries [4] - The AI wave is seen as a significant driver for innovation, with strong domestic demand expected to attract global resources and talent [4][5] Group 3 - Chen Hao focused heavily on AI-related sectors, increasing allocations in power equipment, new energy, non-bank financials, and chemicals, which yielded positive returns [7][8] - Chen Hao anticipates a transition of the AI industry from an acceleration phase in 2025 to a stable growth phase in 2026, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities and the integration of AI with local applications [7][8] Group 4 - Xiao Nan reduced allocations in high-end and sub-high-end liquor sectors while increasing investments in the livestock industry, anticipating inflation-driven cost increases over the next two years [10] - The top holdings in Xiao Nan's consumer sector fund remained unchanged, including Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a recent increase in consumer prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for four consecutive months, reaching its highest level since March 2023 [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing decline, with month-on-month increases for five consecutive months, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [2][3] Group 2: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is projected to grow by 4.1% in market size by 2025, driven by an increase in pet ownership and spending per pet [4][5] - The number of dogs and cats is expected to rise by 1.8%, with average annual spending on dogs increasing by 1.5% and on cats by 3.2% [4] - The trend towards younger pet ownership is identified as a key driver for high-quality growth in the industry [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable shift towards scientific feeding practices among pet owners, with 55.3% expressing a willingness to learn about proper nutrition [6] - The preference for wet food is increasing, with significant growth in various categories such as cat treats and dog food, indicating a trend towards premium pet products [6][7] - The demand for specialized pet food for different life stages and sizes is rising, particularly for senior and small breed dogs, reflecting a more tailored approach to pet care [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Li Ning - Li Ning has entered a new product and marketing cycle following its signing with the Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance brand strength [8][9] - The demand for sports footwear remains resilient, with a growing trend towards diversification and specialization in the market [8] - The company is projected to see a rebound in net profit from 27.42 billion to 33.02 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding increase in earnings growth rates [9]

晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/22） 金融工程研究 主要指数多数下跌，两融余额继续上升——融资融券周报 3、风险提示 两融业务成本超预期变动风险；两融监管政策超预期变动风险。 行业研究 2025 年全国工程机械开工率为 44.89%——机械设备行业周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（1 月 14 日-1 月 20 日）A 股市场主要指数多数下跌，其中中证 500 涨幅最大，上涨了 1.28%；上证 50 跌幅最大，下跌了 1.99%。此外，上证综指下跌 0.61%，深证成指下跌 0.10%，创业板 ...

盘后数据出炉。 1月21日，A股市场整体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数报4116.94点，上涨0.08%；深证成指报14255.13点，上涨0.7%；创业板指数报3295.52点，上涨0.54%； 北证50指数上涨0.14%。 1.A股市场主力资金净流入56.08亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出41.97亿元，尾盘净流入6.26亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流入56.08亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2026-1-21 | 56. 08 | -41.97 | 6.26 | 154. 57 | | 2026-1-20 | -764. 07 | -221.93 | -61.61 | -471.97 | | 2026-1-19 | -397.98 | -162.72 | -58. 29 | -209.12 | | 2026-1-16 | -238.85 | -106. 45 | -38. 37 | -133.83 | | 2026- ...